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WA-Sen: 48% Murray (D), 47% Rossi (R) (Fox 9/25)

Topics: poll , Washington

Fox News / Pulse Opinion Research
9/25/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Pulse release)

Washington

2010 Senate
48% Murray (D), 47% Rossi (R) (chart)

 

Comments
Bob in SJ:

Rass-lite can't get Rossi over the top. He Boeing comments are gonna cost him in the short and long run.

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BH:

Actually with Murray at only 48 with a ton of money spent in negative ads, I'd say this poll is far more favorable to Rossi than libs would admit.

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Bob in SJ:

@ BH

Rossi hasn't broken 50% in a month, whereas this is the lowest showing for Murray. She's been over 50% in more recent polling. The Republicans are now goign to spend more money in WV. I thinik it will be close, but she's in good shape here.

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Xenobion:

Rossi's commercials are pretty funny. First criticizing Murray that all she can do is attack ads and then unfortunately resorting to them.

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Kaw-liga:

Polling may go up and down a bit, but the final result will likely be very close to the combined D vs R breakdown in the primary.

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BH:

"Rossi hasn't broken 50% in a month."

Doesn't matter. Rossi's the challenger whose within striking distance of Murray and 50. Murray has been in the Senate for decades and has near 100% name recognition. She's also outspent Rossi thus far on ads. As you can see poll over poll here, this is changing as Rossi and outside groups have saturated the airwaves with defense and attack ads for Rossi. In other words, Murray's lead was just noise until Rossi got his act together. Now that we're in the heart of the campaign, it's clear that Rossi has a real chance to win this handily because of the current enconomy and the Dems 1 Trillion gamble that bought us more a lot more debt and no jobs.

Don't be surprised if Rossi suddenly springs into a commanding lead over the next few weeks, like Johnson has done in WI, now that the electorate is becoming engaged and examining the records of both candidates.

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Bob in SJ:

@ BH

Rossi has nearly 100% name recog as well. And he's a two-time looser state wide. He had his post-primary bump, but that's pretty much faded. Didier still hasn't endorsed him. Murray will win this, 54-46%. His Boeing flip-flop on Euro Subsidies is just the last example of his poor campainging skills.

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Xenobion:

Everyone knows who Dino Rossi is and the fact he lost 2 times against perhaps Washington's most unpopular Governor shows that he simply doesn't know how to run a good campaign. He has no record to run off of other than some piddly things that aren't coming to light from his legislative career in Olympia. If he can't win in this climate, his political career is over.

Murray's ads are twofold, they show what she's done locally, and also attack Rossi. Rossi's are just a bunch of him smiling and showing Murray in unflattering black/white photos. He's running his campaign like the Television just came out and noone know's what lame propaganda is.

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Fred:

This is one race that I will agree that the dems will probably win. Out of the remaining competitive reaces, I give the dems California and Washington.

I would give the GOP Connecticut, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, and West Virginia and I would put New York in the toss-up category. I think DioGuardi has a good shot there. We will see though.

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JJC:

Xen,

True Rossi has lost twice, but both of those races were extremely close (one was decided by a few hundred votes). The democrats have never been in as bad a situation they are in now. Don't count him out yet.

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Mogando669:

"I would give the GOP Connecticut, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, and West Virginia and I would put New York in the toss-up category."

If the GOP takes all that, i think it's nearly game-over. That's 51R-49D.

CA+WA+DE is ABSOLUTELY icing on the cake to prevent Dems from ever having any energy to flip R-held seats like NH/MO/OH.

538.com is already projecting 49 House seats, 7 Governorships, and 7 Senate seats ... and that's BEFORE all these latest brutal polls. I'm foreseeing closer to 54 House, 8-9 Governorships, and like 9 Senate seats.

You're expected to lose seats in the first midterm, but not expected to have your a$$ handed to you.

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eric:

This poll is total BS and is not to be believed.

There are no cross tabs available, but if you look at the answers to the other questions you see that Republicans are over sampled in this survey.

All of the other recent polls show Murray with a decent lead.

Of course it is Fox News, so what would you expect?

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eric:

Found the crosstabs, and yep, this poll is total BS!

Out of the 1000 LVs they polled, 496 voted for Obama and 410 voted for McCain. I guess the rest voted for someone else.

So that's 50% Obama, 41% McCain and 9% Other!

The actual 2008 results were 57.4% Obama, 40.7% McCain, 1.8% Others.

So yeah, this poll definitely over samples Republicans.

Nice try Fox!

http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/0925_WA_crosstabs.pdf

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Xenobion:

From those cross-tabs Murray wins Moderates and Liberals overwhelmingly and still manages to be only a hair's breadth away from Rossi? Quite a hilarious poll.

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JJC:

@Eric

That just means that many people who voted for Obama are now denying it, as we have seen in other polling (which I can't find, but I believe it was a Politico poll).

Fox actually has a very consistent record and has repeatedly shown to be in line with the average of all other polls. Just compare their results with RCP average. Their usually right on the mark. I trust Fox a hell of a lot more than CNN and other news polls.

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eric:

@JJC

Whatever you believe. Keep telling yourself that Fox is reputable.

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StatyPolly:

Some libs still seem to struggle wrapping their heads around the term "Likely Voter".


This poll shows that lots of BOBO voters are sitting this one out, and some that do show up, will be voting against his agenda.

No big surprises there.

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mirrorball:

Well, I'd imagine that at least a few of those not listed as voting for Obama or McCain just didn't vote in 2008 -- either by choice or because they weren't 18 yet. Might not be a large number, but it's probably a few.

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Xenobion:

Under Fox's crosstabs of liberal/moderate/conservative they are expecting almost a 2 to 1 showing of conservatives in a liberal state. LV fail.

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nick283:

This one is probably going to go down to the wire, but Washington is looking damn good for the GOP in the house. Almost a lock on the pickup for Jaime Herrera in the 3rd, Koster in a close match in the 2nd and even Adam Smith looking vulnerable in the 9th. No Republican looking vulnerable in the state. Not bad. Could end up being almost as good as 1994.

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Field Marshal:

So that's 50% Obama, 41% McCain and 9% Other!

The actual 2008 results were 57.4% Obama, 40.7% McCain, 1.8% Others.

So yeah, this poll definitely over samples Republicans.

How so? The Rep representation is the same as 2008 when almost the entire country knows that the Rep representation will be significantly higher in 2010 over 2008. If anything, it underpolls Reps.

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JJC:

@Eric

Like I said, don't take my word for it. Look it up yourself. This site, RCP, and 538 are all good sources. Do your own research.

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JJC:

@Xen

"Under Fox's crosstabs of liberal/moderate/conservative they are expecting almost a 2 to 1 showing of conservatives in a liberal state. LV fail."

Wrong. Washington is a democratic state, not liberal. There's a huge difference.

According to Gallup, 25% say they are liberal in Washington state. 34% say they are conservative.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125066/State-States.aspx

Giving the increase enthusiasm, a 2 to 1 advantage is very believable.

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StatyPolly:

Murray had only two polls in the past 3 months that had her up by more than 5 pts. That's it. The two latest polls have her up by 1 and 2.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/wa/washington_senate_rossi_vs_murray-1183.html

This poll just confirms the most recent poll. Nothing outlandish..

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StatyPolly:

She had a good week around 9/9 to 9/14 but now the race seems to be getting back to a tossup, based on the three latest polls.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Staty

The SUSA poll you use as an example was a 9 point swing to Murray in one month. So, well, yeah.

If another poll comes out with Rossi closer than 3 or ahead, then I'll believe it's closed.

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Xenobion:

@JJC I just don't see it happening. I would dispute that gallup poll in ideology breakdown as well. I contend this is being made a horserace just like McCain was trying to win this state in 2008.

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kariq:

If this poll is accurate, it's definitely bad news for Murray. But that's a big if, and I'd like to see someone other than SUSA and Fox say this is 1-2 point race before I believe it.

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gjetson:

Please. Patty Murray is well known and well liked. Dino is well known for his sour grapes and failed lawsuit after the first governor's race he lost. He lost by a wider margin the second time. Gregoire is a good governor, but not that popular, and Rossi still couldn't beat her.

As noted by an earlier poster, teabagger Clint Didier still has not endorsed Dino. Add to that the WA GOP is not the machine the WA Dem is. GOTV will favor the Dems. Bet on it.

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