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Washington Post Live Chat

Topics: Pollster.com

I totally neglected to link to this -- apologies for that: Charles Franklin and I are joining Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com for a live chat on WashingtonPost.com. The chat starts right now (noon Eastern Time) but should be available for review afterwards.

 

Comments
John:

Very well done Mark, (Charles and Nate also.)

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hobetoo:

You guys made an excellent tag team. There are a lot of complementarities between what you do, though you're the more established and professional of the two "polling" sites.

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Gary Kilbride:

I have a question and I'm not sure where to dump it. This looks like as good a place as any, since it isn't flooded with 100+ comments:

What happened to Constituent Dynamics, or House polling in general? I've never seen such a dive from one cycle to the next in terms of scrutinizing the House races. Heck, there's been almost nothing on gov races and very little on the senate. On the progressive sites there used to be heavy analysis of House/Senate/Gov even during presidential years. Now it's like, "well we're in the majority and confident that will hold, so let's blow it off and laser focus on Obama..."

Constituent Dynamics was well underway at this point in 2006, polling with samples of 2000 in key House districts. I assumed it would transfer to subsequent cycles. They did make a brief appearance in the 2008 spring primaries, if I remember correctly.

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Brian in PA:

This seems to be a good way to look at the sitation: If you accept RCP's analysis, showing Obama now with 249 electoral votes (solid and leaning), then he needs just 20 more from the 9 states they deem toss-ups. Here they are, with electoral college and current RCP average:

Ohio (20) Obama +2.0
Florida (27) Obama +2.8
Nevada (5) Obama +0.5
New Hampshire (4) +1.3
Virginia (13) Obama +2.5
North Carolina (15) Obama +0.3
Wisconsin (10) Obama +3.8
Minnesota (10) Obama +4.6
Missouri (11) McCain +1.7

Minnesota and Wisconsin, or Ohio, or Florida will do the trick.

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This is a very concise take on the state of the McCain campaign from CQ Politics.

http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docid=news-000002967527

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Gary Kilbride:

I read the transcript from Washington Post and Mark Blumenthal mentioned something about House polling and how to find it on Pollster:

"I wanted to chip in two thoughts: One is that we will have been entering and charting data for House races on Pollster. It's just a little hard to find (follow the map for "all other races.)" By week's end, however, we should have a Congressional District map in place."

Admittedly, part of my frustration is lack of wagering on the House races, without polling. Intrade in 2008, with plentiful House polls, enabled numerous House races with individual odds. Now it's merely a net wager, the bottom line. In obscure races there's much greater opportunity of outwitting a market than something like a presidential race with all the variables front and center.

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Gary Kilbride:

I meant 2006, not 2008, in regard to specific House races available on Intrade.

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