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White Vote for Obama in the States


StateVotebyRace.png
There is considerable variation in the percentage of whites who voted for Obama. Where African Americans made up less than 20% of the vote (according to exit polls), whites varied from 30% to 60% in their support for Obama but with no relationship to the size of the African American vote. As the African American electorate rose above 20%, white support for Obama fell sharply to barely 10%.

African American support for Obama varied from 90% to 100% in the 28 states that had sufficient sample size to report exit results for the group. In the 13 states with large enough samples, Hispanic voters supported Obama between 56% and 78% of the time. 

 

Comments
Vicente Duque:

Mr Charles Franklin :

Wonderful Chart and Analysis. Thanks a lot for it !. Very useful for my studies.

I have to be fair and congratulate and admire millions of White Americans who voted for a "black" man. I acknowledge their fairness.

But on the other hand there are "racist" states where Whites refuse to vote for such a candidate. Those states are mostly in the "deep south" and probably have "remembrances" of the Old Confederacy and Slavery.

Nothing would be more naive than thinking that Racism has died and disappeared, but anyway, a "black" president will be helpful for children to see that the World is changing. And there is Racism in many other countries, if not in all.

So I am happy for America and congratulate all Americans for this progress and achievement. I am sure that everything will become better for the USA including Race Relations.

I posted a link to this present pollster.com page in my site :

Raciality.com

Milenials.com

Vicente Duque

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Does this have anything to do with the size of blacks in the population --- OR the places where blacks make up higher percentage of the population (the former Confederacy)?

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damitajo1:

Oh, sorry - I wish we could edit posts, but alas, we cannot. To the above poster, I would say that a lot of the white southern vote is as much anti-Democrat as it is anti-black. After 1964, no Democrat has won a majority of white votes, including Obama.

And this is not just a problem in Dixie. Obama did not win a majority of white votes in Maryland -- neither did Kerry and Gore. Obama did not win a majority of white votes in Pennsylvania or Ohio. In the deep blue state of California, Obama won just over 1/2 of the white votes. I am amazed that the media keep portraying this election as some radical shift in the electorate. I ain't!

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damitajo1:

In 11 of the 28 blue states, Obama failed to get a majority of white votes. He won three by slim margins. He won those in his Hawaii and Illinois. http://dissentingjustice.blogspot.com/2008/11/did-election-really-mean-radical-shift.html

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Vicente Duque:


Death Threats against the President Elect. Killing a White Woman during a Klan Initiation. Beating brown youngsters and breaking jaws and ribs. "Nordic Feasts" with Nazi Symbols, Hate Music and Threats against Jews. Threats against White Traitors to the Race ??

All white Juries of 14 people. Contempt of court with people wearing Nazi and Klan shirts, and heavy tattoo hate symbols. Speaking brazenly in court. Skinheads ?? Weak Judges ??

Germany 1933 ?? ..... "Mississippi in Flames" ??( the movie ).

No America 2008, Kentucky and Louisiana !

See more stories here :

Raciality.com

Vicente Duque

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DTM:

I agree we need to be careful about confusing correlation and causation in this case. In fact, this all arose in the Democratic primaries as well, and as I recall a lot of the apparent correlation between Obama's white voter percentage and percentage of black people in the electorate disappeared once you controlled for the percentage of Southern Baptists among white voters.

And just eyeballing it, I suspect that could be happening again in the general election. For reference, here is a chart of the percentage of Southern Baptists in the top 20 states:

http://www.adherents.com/largecom/com_sbc.html

Note states like Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, and Texas are up in that chart with South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina. And if you scan across, those clusters of states are at roughly the same level in this chart despite very different percentages of black voters. Conversely, Maryland is way down at the bottom of that list, and there it sits way above the trend.

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Another Mike:

Interesting chart. It would be even more interesting to make the same chart for Kerry in 2004 and compare the two.

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This entire effect seems to be driven by just five states: SC, GA, AL, MS, and LA, aka the "Deep South". VA and NC do show some drop-off, but MD does not, so without the Deep South, it appears there would only be a very mild drop-off.

I'd be interested in seeing what the curve would look like without those five states.

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*11 Blue States Where Obama Failed to Get a Majority of White Votes:

Colorado (50-48), Florida (42-56), Indiana (45-54), Maryland (47-49), New Jersey (49-50), Nevada (53-45), New Mexico (42-56), North Carolina (35-64), Ohio (46-52), Pennsylvania (48-51), and Virginia (60-39).

*5 Blue States where Obama Received a Small Majority (51-52%) of White Votes:

California (52-46), Connecticut (51-46), Illinois (51-48), Iowa (51-47), and Michigan (51-47).

Source: http://dissentingjustice.blogspot.com/2008/11/did-election-really-mean-radical-shift.html

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Many thanks for the comments. I've posted an update in response with some additional analysis.

Charles

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