9/13/08; 500 LV, 4.5%
Obama 48, McCain 46
2008 election will be talked about for a long time if WI goes red and VA goes blue.
Posted on September 17, 2008 5:19 PM
Wisconsin just went toss up on RCP
Posted on September 17, 2008 5:20 PM
Obama lost two points in his lead from last month.
Posted on September 17, 2008 5:33 PM
I just can't see Minnesota and Wisconsin turning Red, but you never know.
I'm sure we'll be able to tell how close these states really are by how many visits Obama makes there over the next 6 weeks. If he ignores them then you figure his pollsters are telling him things will be fine, maybe closer than expected, but fine. If he starts showing up there a couple of times then you know it's close.
Posted on September 17, 2008 5:37 PM
Not good for obama
Hopefully some one will post the crosstabs on this poll. It was close last time, it won't be going red
Posted on September 17, 2008 5:39 PM
Actually, Rasmussen's use of LV is telling. If Obama is tied or slightly ahead in LV polls/models then you have to figure he's in pretty good shape.
Everything I read suggests his organization and ground game is going to be impressive. We'll see...maybe that's overstated, but based on Democratic registration and Obama's state organization I think Mccain needs to maintain a 3-4 point lead in LVs just to feel good.
Posted on September 17, 2008 5:43 PM
Grrr. Rasmussen doesn't allow the crosstabs to be viewed without membership. Anyone out there who has membership willing to check his samples of men vs. women; percentage of under-30 voters, and Rep vs.Dems?
Posted on September 17, 2008 5:49 PM
I am confident that the people in Wisconsin and Minnesota will vote for Obama and Biden. If you look at the over-all trends in each state Obama has good leads.
The Gallup poll today of Obama 47 and McCain 45 looks good. McCain is losing his convention bounce. McCain and Palin have no plan to end this war in Iraq, and no economic plan. They are the exact same as Bush and Cheney.
VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!
Posted on September 17, 2008 6:27 PM
Obama had more negative add - hence the polls
mccain needs to hit him hard, very hard on everything.
I think he is waiting after the debate
Posted on September 17, 2008 6:34 PM
Here is the second poll today showing Obama running ahead of Kerry's 2004 pace in WI (Kerry won the state by only about 10,000 votes). Right-leaning Rasmussen has Obama up 2 in WI; CNN has Obama up 4 there. Rasmussen did not include the names of third-party candidates in his questioning; CNN did. The CNN poll has a larger sample.
Both candidates must have internal numbers showing a close race in WI, as they are spending large and equal amounts of money there. See:
No poll since May has shown McCain ahead in WI. No Republican presidential candidate has won WI since 1984.
Posted on September 17, 2008 6:42 PM
Also of note regarding WI: Research 2000 has Obama ahead in the Midwest by 9 points in its tracker. See:
Posted on September 17, 2008 6:52 PM
Another teaser poll for Mccain--looks nice but he has never actually led in any poll here yet(0 for 12 on RCP) and has zero chance of winning the state. Par for the course.
Posted on September 17, 2008 6:54 PM
And one more note: Rasmussen had this poll in the field on Saturday--two days before the negative economic news that seems to be helping Obama.
Posted on September 17, 2008 6:55 PM
CBS poll just came out, Obama up by 5, when u add Nader/Barr, he's up by 6. Dems were polled 7% more than Repubs. This is great news!
Posted on September 17, 2008 8:00 PM
If you're Obama's campaign you factor in a House effect of about +2 for McCain, and you also consider that this is a 9.13 poll and the landscape has shifted dramatically, especially among indies. I'd factor another 1.5 for that. Expect other respected polls to show Obama at +5 to +6. Looking back to Kerry's run
The Wall Street Journal reports a Harris poll of 1018 adults, conducted over September 9-13 (+/- 3%), shows 48% of likely voters would vote for John Kerry, 47% would vote for President Bush, 2% would vote for Ralph Nader, and 3%
Kerry won by a small percentage so the race stayed pretty static in this state. I see Obama winning by 6 here in November and spending nothing significant unless and until McCain opens his piggy bank (no pun intended...kinda), and pays to play here. I think his internals are showing him up by about 4. He'll monitor and spend only if polls start to show it dead even or + McCain.
Posted on September 17, 2008 9:57 PM
Note: The other polls I just referred to would be coming the next week or so when the national effect seeps down so should be a little higher than current internals
Posted on September 17, 2008 9:59 PM
I think we can probably discount all polls that were taken before Lehmans collapse. It's a new game from 9/15 onwards.
Posted on September 18, 2008 5:05 AM
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