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WV: 2010 Special Sen (Rasmussen 7/8)

Topics: Senate , West Virginia

Rasmussen
7/8/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen: release, story)

West Virginia

2010 Senate Special
53% Manchin (D), 39% Capito (R)
65% Manchin (D), 26% Ireland (R)

Should the governor appoint a replacement for Senator Byrd or should there be a special election to select a replacement for Senator Byrd?
36% appoint, 59% special election

Should Governor Manchin appoint himself to the open U.S. Senate seat?
25% yes, 61% no

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 33 / 65
Gov. Manchin: 77 / 23

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

This would be a huge mistake to do this time of year. I hope the WV legislature will take this poll seriously. If it can happen in Mass. in 2010, the anti-change tea party rhetoric has expanded nationwide.

A 14 point lead is not as much as what Martha Coakley had. I think it would be a mistake for WV not to postpone it unti 2012. Capito is a very winnable candidate.

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billwy:

@farleft:
I didn't check to see if what you said about Martha Coakley is correct, but assuming what you say is true, I don't think that puts Manchin in the same category.
Let's face it...Coakley was quite possibly the worst candidate for senate ever and still only lost by a few percent. IF this matchup develops, Manchin will have to run from Obama hard, but I think he would hang on actually.

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Farleftandproud:

This poll proves my point about WV and other polls also show this to be true in KY, and TN. They like the Democrat party, if it is someone from their own state but don't trust Democrats from out of state who they see as too liberal.

In the case of WV, I can honestly say race plays a roll, because Dukakis won in 1988 and Clnton won the next two elections. Gore and Kerry lost the state by a few points, and Obama lost it by about 20 points. Manchin and Obama probably agree on 86 percent of the issues, yet they can't connect with Obama. If this had been Hillary I bet her approval would be 52 percent in WV.

We clearly have a long way to go in race relations. The election of Obama was a great moment in time, however I have not seen racism this bad in years. All the elements that had been kept secret have come out of the bag, about how much hatred people have based on the color of one's skin.

I won't say the whole south is racist since Wilder was elected Governor of Virginia, and Jindal elected as Governor of LA, but it seems like some of the border states being heavily white, rural and isolated are the most likely to have this bias.

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Farleftandproud:

This poll proves my point about WV and other polls also show this to be true in KY, and TN. They like the Democrat party, if it is someone from their own state but don't trust Democrats from out of state who they see as too liberal.

In the case of WV, I can honestly say race plays a roll, because Dukakis won in 1988 and Clnton won the next two elections. Gore and Kerry lost the state by a few points, and Obama lost it by about 20 points. Manchin and Obama probably agree on 86 percent of the issues, yet they can't connect with Obama. If this had been Hillary I bet her approval would be 52 percent in WV.

We clearly have a long way to go in race relations. The election of Obama was a great moment in time, however I have not seen racism this bad in years. All the elements that had been kept secret have come out of the bag, about how much hatred people have based on the color of one's skin.

I won't say the whole south is racist since Wilder was elected Governor of Virginia, and Jindal elected as Governor of LA, but it seems like some of the border states being heavily white, rural and isolated are the most likely to have this bias.

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Sean Murphy:

Kerry lost by a few points? He got smoked in the state what are you talking about?

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TeaPartyRules:

Time for Sarah and the Tea Party to head to WV. I'm shocked that ABC news actually did a positive piece on Sarah last night. I guess they know she is going to be the next POTUS and want to get on her good side.

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Field Marshal:

We clearly have a long way to go in race relations.

We clearly do. When you have blacks supporting Obama 90+% simply based on skin color, we have racial issues. When a SC senate candidate wins simply because he's black, we have racial issues. When more than 3/4ers of congressional districts that have hispanic population greater than 50% have a hispanic rep, we have racial issues. When Atlanta elects black mayor after black mayor, we have racial issues.

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Chriscom:

You can't compare Manchin to Coakley, at all. First, Manchin is much more known in WV than Coakley in MA (Gov. to AG). Also, Manchin is a killer campaigner as proved by the 08 election, and is extremely popular in this state, and let's face it the reason Coakley lost was her lackluster campaigning period. Manchin is in a much better spot, even given the fact WV is a much more conservative state. It's all local, and up to the candidate thats what will tell you who's going to win this election.

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melvin:

Damn i read this guy like a book"I predicted yesterday Rasmussen will come out with a poll on WV,but the bad news is Manchin is not going to run,in you can bet Rasmussen will have the Gop leading in this race as soon as Manchin announce he is not running.If the Democrats loses this seat in November Manchin should resign immediately,because this was the most dumbest move in political history.

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Stillow:

The Capito camp will need to tie Manchin to Barry. Barry's stance on coal mining, etc would help capito greatly if the Captio people can tie Barry to Manchin. I realize Manchin is not exactly Obama freindly, so he may distance himself quite a bit to get the job. We'll see.

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Paleo:

Capito won't run against Manchin. With there being a possibility of the Republicans taking over the House, she's not going to give up a safe seat for an uphill run against Manchin.

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Stillow:

We all assume Manchin even wants the job. Its not really the best time to be a Democrat in washington. Manchin if he ran this time and won and Dems continue to suffer thru 2012, he could then find himself in a contest with Capito and would probably lose.

Silver over on 538 actually for once had a legit point....a Capito / Manchin matchup is simply to complex to call right now because there are to many variables right now. Manchin may not even want the job.

Anyone's guess how this turns out or who the candidates would even be.

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melvin:

Why is 70% of the politicans in WV is Democrat,but when it comes to voting for the President of the United States they vote Republican most of the time?

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Paleo:

Manchin wants it.

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Sean Murphy:

"Why is 70% of the politicans in WV is Democrat,but when it comes to voting for the President of the United States they vote Republican most of the time?"

Because the national Democratic party is to the left of the WV Democratic party.

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melvin:

Stillow its not the best time to be a Republican in Washington also,the reason the GOP is doing ok is because America dont have a Major 3rd party to choose from, so their stuck with the Republicans. Its like choosing the less of 2 evils.

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Ned:

Farleft has half a point...west virginia loves hillary clinton, even though she is to the left of barack obama(I didn't think that was possible).

@field marshall,
I doubt 90 percent of south carolina voters even knew alvin greene was black. He didn't even campaign. Also how do you explain the fact that 88% of blacks also stayed with kerry, 90% of blacks stayed with clinton. They are simply a reliable democratic constituancy even when its against their self-interest. Much in the same way evangelical christians support war mongering republicans upwards of 80% every election.

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melvin:

Mr Sean Murphy, Senator Byrd was the most Liberal Senator in the Senate the past 58 years,and WV is one of the most poorest States in the Country,so your comment don't make sense.

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Ned:

Farleft has half a point...west virginia loves hillary clinton, even though she is to the left of barack obama(I didn't think that was possible).

@field marshall,
I doubt 90 percent of south carolina voters even knew alvin greene was black. He didn't even campaign. Also how do you explain the fact that 88% of blacks also stayed with kerry, 90% of blacks stayed with clinton. They are simply a reliable democratic constituancy even when its against their self-interest. Much in the same way evangelical christians support war mongering republicans upwards of 80% every election.

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Stillow:

Ned - Hillary left of Barry? Hang on a second..............ok back, I had to go see if pigs were flying outside.

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Ned:

Stillow I'm surprised at u...I thought u were a student of at least recent history...it was hillary that attacked obama for his health care plan not being universal enough...that was a central tenet of her primary campaign.

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Ned:

Stillow I'm surprised at u...I thought u were a student of at least recent history...it was hillary that attacked obama for his health care plan not being universal enough...that was a central tenet of her primary campaign.

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Stillow:

Ned - Did you watch the same primary as I did? Barry won because the liberal base abandoned Hillary in favor of Barry. While both are deifnatley liberal....I just do not see Hillary as extreme as Barry. She is more pragmatic, like her husband was. While its purely based on opinion for all concerned, I just do not see Hillary seizing entire industries in the economy or appointitng radicals to fill certain positions.

Speaking of Hillary, she has been very quiet. I have a little feeling that if the GOP take at least one chamber this fall that she will resieng i nthe first half of next year an may challenge Barry for the nomination. she is told told to wait til 2016....she knew she could not have beaten Bush in 2004 so she didn't run....2008 was her moment to shine and Barry sole it from her. Hell hath no fury..........

She may have one last trick up her sleeve.


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Ned:

@stillow. I respectfully disagree. If u were able to name me policy issues that were different, I mite be more simpathetic to your argument. Liberals left barack because of the war, and he has been dropping drones like crazy. Other than healthcare they have virtually no policy position differences. I repeat, hillary hammered barack because his plan only covered 30 million, rofl. I think u may be a little misguided here.

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Ned:

@stillow. I respectfully disagree. If u were able to name me policy issues that were different, I mite be more simpathetic to your argument. Liberals left barack because of the war, and he has been dropping drones like crazy. Other than healthcare they have virtually no policy position differences. I repeat, hillary hammered barack because his plan only covered 30 million, rofl. I think u may be a little misguided here.

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Stillow:

Then disagree it will be. Besides, if we all agreed on things like this, politics would be boring.

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StatyPolly:

Yeah, it's gonna be Hillary V. Palin in 2012.

Count on it. Pretty much.

We'll have America's first bra'd President. And no, Taft doesn't count.

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Field Marshal:

Ned,

Yes, in a general matchup, blacks will support the dem candidate almost no matter what upwards of 85%+.

But when its a dem primary and they are supporting Obama 90%+ over Hillary, then it boils down to voting based on skin color which is, by definition, racist.

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Farleftandproud:

If Manchin doesn't run, they should certainly wait until 2012. WV unlike Mass, probably doesn't have any candidates who would be winnable; I was disappointed that in Mass, more Democrats didn't try to run for that seat. I had such a bad feeling about Martha Coakley from the beginning.

Manchin needs to appoint a replacement this week, and decide if he wants to run himself, or simply take some time and pick someone to serve out Byrd's term til 2012.

If this had been New Jersey, and anything does happen to Lautenberg who is 87 and terminally ill with cancer, Christie will be preasured to have a special election as well. I am willing to bet that Christie would pick a conservative republican and would probably do everything to not have a special election until 2012.

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Farleftandproud:

Being a traditionally Democratic state, and a poorer mining state, if a Democrat runs in 2012 for senate, he or she would likely win. If Manchin doesn't run but someone else runs in 2010, this would become a Nationalized election, and the Democratic candidate would get demonized and associated with everything Obama.

WV is still a Democratic state, but they like their own people they can identify with; Obama, they simply don't trust.

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williame123:

@Field Marshal

"We clearly do. When you have blacks supporting Obama 90+% simply based on skin color, we have racial issues. When a SC senate candidate wins simply because he's black, we have racial issues. When more than 3/4ers of congressional districts that have hispanic population greater than 50% have a hispanic rep, we have racial issues. When Atlanta elects black mayor after black mayor, we have racial issues."

Thats one way of putting it. Another way of putting it is:

We clearly do. When you have whites in Mississippi, SC and Alabama supporting McCain 90+% simply based on skin color, we have racial issues. When SC senate candidates in the past win simply because they are white, we have racial issues. When more than 90% of congressional districts that have a white population greater than 50% have a white rep, we have racial issues. When 95+% of States elect one white governor after another white governor, we have racial issues. When only 3 blacks have been elected to the Senate since reconstruction we have issues.

How is that is that?

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Country Club Repub:

In regards to far lefts comment on the U.S. being racist, I would agree, but only because its the blacks in this nation who make up the majority of racists. Black people dwell on racism and are consumed by it, they never want it to end and they use idiot simpletons like farleft to help them. Plus if any state is racist its VT, black people are no where to be found there.

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HookedOnPolls:

After reading those last couple of comments the only conclusion that can be drawn is that
almost all Americans are racists.

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Farleftandproud:

William 123

"When you have whites in Mississippi, SC and Alabama supporting McCain 90+% simply based on skin color, we have racial issues. When SC senate candidates in the past win simply because they are white, we have racial issues. When more than 90% of congressional districts that have a white population greater than 50% have a white rep, we have racial issues. "

You are absolutely correct. Take a look at states in the west and great plains that are 95 percent white like Montana, Nebraska, and North and South Dakota, they have elected Democratic senators and governors over the past 20 years, but in the deep south the white constituency seems to not see it that way.

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Farleftandproud:

"Country Club Repub:
In regards to far lefts comment on the U.S. being racist, I would agree, but only because its the blacks in this nation who make up the majority of racists. Black people dwell on racism and are consumed by it, they never want it to end and they use idiot simpletons like farleft to help them. Plus if any state is racist its VT, black people are no where to be found there."

Very arrogant statement. The reason there isn't a high minority population in VT is it is hard to find jobs. It is hard to find jobs in smaller cities and smaller towns, and many minority groups, need to be in places where they can get a job quickly.

There are a fair share of Blacks, Indians and some hispanics who work here, and they fit in quite well.

The bottom line is that states that are at least 30 miles from a large city, in the north are not going to have such fast growth. Vermont has little turnover in companies, making it so they don't hire as frequently.

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Stillow:

farleft - If the deep south is so racist why does a deep south state like LA have an indian as governor? why did another deep south state nominate an indian for tis governor? why did the SC-01 district...which has been held by the GOP forever nominate Tim scott, a black guy? When did whtie racists from the deep sotuh start nominating black guys to represent them? Why did JC Watts win in a heavily conservative white district in OK? Why is Marco Rubio, a latino so popular among southerners? why did the state of NV nominate a latino for governor? Whey when you ask conservatives in the south who is there favorite scotus justice, clearance Thomas is always one of the twop one or two? I could go on, but hopefully you ge thte point.

Why is it racist if McCain gets 90 percent of the whtie vote in southern states, but not racist when a democrat gets 90 percent of the black vote in urban areas?

You racers are so depserate....and you see racism in everything. It shows what puny naive creatures you liberals are.

LA, SC, two of the deepest southern states and the most popular figures in those states are not of the color white.

Sory lefties, but the race baiting just doesn't work anymore...it makes you look small and stupid.

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Farleftandproud:

"Stillow:
farleft - If the deep south is so racist why does a deep south state like LA have an indian as governor? why did another deep south state nominate an indian for tis governor? why did the SC-01 district...which has been held by the GOP forever nominate Tim scott, a black guy?"

There are too reasons for this, and that is they are fiercely independent of the different racial and ethnic idenity groups that exist in cities like NYC, LA, Boston or Chicago. JC Watts, Bobby Jindal and Clarence Thomas grew up in environments that were predominently white, and simply related better to the conservative philosophy.

I gave LA credit for electing Jindal and as for SC, Nikki Halley is so beautiful that having some clever conservative ideas and a nice body will get her elected.

I am glad that African American conservatives are getting elected to office in the south, and the GOP needs to do a better job with non-whites, just like the Democrats have to do a better job at reaching out to Independent white males in rural areas and even near cities. I am glad the Democrats have people like Ben Nelson in our party because they have kept the party from moving too liberal.

We have lost a lot of these people and depended too much on younger voters and minority voters. I would like to see both parties become more diverse.

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Farleftandproud:

This doesn't really change that many whites, in much of the country, especially in the more rural and redder areas, will never trust Obama; even though his ideas are no different than Bill or HIllary, John Kerry or Sherrod Brown, Obama will never be able to win their votes.

This may not be as much racist as it is more or less being for your own race! I think there would likewise be some hostility for northern Liberals to ever vote for Bobby Jindal for president, or someone like JC Watts because they would find it strange that they were palling around with Neo-cons like Palin, Gingrich, Jeb Bush and Senator Cornyn. There would be resentment from Asians, Middle Easterners, Hispanics or Blacks for supporting the same party that wants to allow racial profiling in Arizona.

There are stereotypes from all sides, so being prejudice isn't alien to a specific political persuasion or racial group.

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Farleftandproud:

I still disagree with Stillow about Alvin Greene. I think there was a serious error at the ballot; Greene did not campaign or get on tv. I don't believe he would have been well known enough to have won.

It was probably a mistake in the voting machines, a little like the Florida votes for Pat Buchanan in 2000 in a district that is heavily hispanic. Some of them may have intended to vote for Bush, but certainly they wouldn't have voted for Buchanon.

There were also some liberal jewish areas in Wasserman-Shultz's district that went for Buchanon.

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Stillow:

farleft - Only a very tiny sliver oppose Barry because he is black....probably no bigger a slice than say blacks who only went out and voted because Barry was black. Many who oppose Obama also oppose Hillary, Bill clinton, Kerry ,etc....a year ago or so Barry's approval was around 70 percent. are you saying the 25 percent in approval he has lost is because those people suddnely became racist?

Its liberalism farleft, nothing more that is driving his numbers down. Only 20 percent cosnider themsleves to be liberal...so its natural than when you push liberal polices like Barry, your approval is going to drop.

There is no grand right wing racist plot. or none of the things I mentioned would be true.

You and your kind are a shrinking crowd....the rest of us are moving beyond your type of racism. You can either choose to come along or be left in the ashes with other racists.

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Country Club Repub:

Are you saying farleft that blacks are not smart or hardworking enough to compete for these jobs in VT? That just because whites have historically held these positions like entitlements, that blacks have no chance of breaking the Vermont color barrier? That blacks must rely on fleeting city jobs their entire lives, going from unstable job to unstable job with stops at unemployment along the way? I hold you and your racist Vermonters in contempt for your blatantly racist views.

Oh and by the way there are not more jobs in the cities than in small towns. 90% of my tenants (who are black) pay me each month with their unemployment check. And they have been doing long before the unemployment rate reached 7%, let alone 10%.

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Farleftandproud:

CCR is clearly a troll trying to be the devil's advocate. I live in a very rural state and I honestly can't say the real reason my state is so homogenous. There are simply limited jobs for anyone, and most people who move to VT get transferred. Finding work for those out of state is difficult.

Country Club Republican is from PA. Well I have been to Philly, and I have been to some of the slums there. I don't see very many integrated neighborhoods.

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Country Club Repub:

It is nice of you to admit that a northern progressive city is basically segregated in reality. It is regrettable that my city is in fact so backwards, that there are streets and sections of the city where neither I, nor anyone of white appearance can safely walk down. I blame the urban democrats, always firmly entrenched with a grip over the black communities. I am of course invested in the city and have prospered because of it. The slums will remain just that until real leadership comes in and brings security for businesses to thrive again. Not that the black communities would allow that.

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Farleftandproud:

"Country Club Repub:
It is nice of you to admit that a northern progressive city is basically segregated in reality"

Not everyone here in my town is progressive, in fact I would say it has a lot of old Vermonters; it is surprising that Vermont being so rural tends to lean left; there are not many places like that in the US. Over the NY state line, the politics change and it is really conservative to the point where it feels like Indiana. It is like culture shock when I go west of the border.

The district has a moderate Democrat as it's rep. He won the Special election about a year and a half ago, and this district is one the GOP is targeting, but he has high popularity and they have a weak candidate. Other parts of the district are more suburban and have younger Democraphics who lean Democratic.

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Sean Murphy:

Farleft allow me to let you in on a little secret. There is no racial profiling going on in Arizona so stop fabricating such things okay?

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Farleftandproud:

"Sean Murphy:
Farleft allow me to let you in on a little secret. There is no racial profiling going on in Arizona so stop fabricating such things okay?"

If the law is found to be consitutional, there will clearly be racial profiling. I was in Arizona myself, and they asked me questions about where I was travelling to. They knew I was an American, but the two immigration officers would have searched my car I bet if I had an accent. That right there is racial proling, so please Righties, stop your denial.

If racial profiling in your eyes is a necessity, than why to do you deny it? After 9/11 I know that people who were travelling to the US from the Middle East, India or North Africa were checked extra carefully; It was certainly not something that people really wanted to do, but it was better than facing another attack.

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Huda:

lol, williame123 sure nailed the hypocrisy and stupidity that is right wing race bating.

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