Public Policy Polling (D)
10/16-17/08; 1,223 LV, 2.8%
McCain 50, Obama 42
Well that is it for WV I guess...
Posted on October 18, 2008 11:55 PM
Unbelievable. What is next? Utah?
Posted on October 18, 2008 11:57 PM
I wouldn't rule out continuing to contest the state based on this poll alone. Averaging the last 3 polls, McCain only has a 2-point lead there. PPP had earlier indicated that they may have trouble polling West Virginia. They did it anyway, but maybe their limitations delivered them a less accurate result than Insider Advantage, who gave McCain just a 2 point lead.
Posted on October 19, 2008 12:10 AM
EVIDENCE THAT CO WILL FLIP FOR OBAMA
(updated w/new registration numbers)
1) Right-leaning Rasmussen's fresh poll of the state finds Obama extending his lead there to 7 points. Rasmussen's recent CO polls have trended Obama--+1, +6, and +7.
2) Rasmussen's poll indicates that Obama's likely voters are more likely than McCain's--Obama has a "very favorable" rating of 43% in CO, while McCain's rating is just 26%.
3) A new poll of a bellwether CO county finds Obama running ahead of Kerry's pace there: "Among the four counties tested, McCain leads in only one: Jefferson County, Colo., a populous Denver suburb. McCain is ahead there by a margin of 45 percent to 43 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Colorado's Jefferson County supported GOP presidential candidates by an average of almost 18 points between 1976 and 2004. While it hasn't supported a Democrat since 1964, Jeffco has become much more politically marginal in recent years — in 2004, Bush beat Kerry there, 52 percent to 47 percent."
4) 9 consecutive CO polls (conducted by 7 different pollsters) have shown Obama ahead there; McCain has not led in any of the last 11 CO polls.
5) 7 of the last 9 CO polls have shown Obama at 50% or greater there.
6) 18 of the last 20 polls of CO have shown Obama ahead there, with 1 tie and 1 McCain 3-point lead.
7) Most if not all CO polls have not included cell-only voters, who are disproportionately young and for Obama; multiple studies have found that this omission leads to an under-estimation of Obama's support by 2-3%. 10-15% of Coloradans are cell-only persons; see:
8) New voter registrations have reversed the Republican ID advantage; CO now has 6,000 more active registered Democrats than Republicans.
9) Obama is outspending McCain on advertising in CO; see:
10) CO has been trending blue: in 2000 Gore lost the state by 9%; in 2004 Kerry lost the state by just 5%, and a Democrat was elected senator; and in 2006 a Democrat was elected governor by a double-digit margin.
11) Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, a former Republican, has targeted CO, visiting the state today (10/17); he will take some votes from McCain.
12) Obama has the superior ground game in CO, with about 50 field offices; McCain has 12.
13) Obama leads in CO newspaper endorsements 5 to 3.
14) Obama held his convention in CO, and Biden visits the state Monday through Wednesday.
Posted on October 19, 2008 12:12 AM
I need to see another WV poll before I cast my thoughts on this single poll. Two of the last three show this might be incorrect. Even by their own admittance, PPP is weak in this state.
Posted on October 19, 2008 12:15 AM
Forget about West Virginia! Obama will not win here unless 500,000 african americans decide to move there in the next few weeks. West Virginia is full of racist white-trash hicks who will never vote for a black person, they may say they will but they won't.
You may think to yourself that WV voters are coming to their sense and finally realizing that they need to elect someone to help them, but they are not. If Hillary were the nominee the state would be solid blue. The economy sucks there, it looks like a third world country! A black candidate is the only thing keeping WV republican.
Posted on October 19, 2008 12:49 AM
Don't worry, if he doesn't win it this year then he'll win WV in 2012 when he is relected by like a 15% popular vote lead, for now all that matters is that he makes inroads into the state
Posted on October 19, 2008 12:55 AM
I would guess this poll is more accurate than the +8 Obama lead poll that came out recently.
However, if anyone claims this is a 16 point swing for McCain, they should be banned from the site. They are either stupid or trolling. Either way, they are incapable of following the rules. ("Post an intelligent and civil comment.")
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:03 AM
axt113: "Don't worry, if he doesn't win it this year then he'll win WV in 2012 when he is relected by like a 15% popular vote lead, for now all that matters is that he makes inroads into the state"
Exactly. Make inroads into red states, which will make it easier to win in future elections. Or at the very least win state races and elect more Senators, Congresscritters, governors, state legislators, etc.
Building up the Democratic brand is always a wise investment.
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:06 AM
You are correct, sir! I live in Pittsburgh, only about 60 miles North of the PA/WV state line. The hoopies in that state are never going to vote for a black man. He could be the actual second coming, but if wasn't white, he wouldn't be elected mayor of Morgantown.
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:12 AM
New Zogby only has McCain down by 2... Race is tightening.
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:34 AM
its more like down by 3 vmval1 and zogby is not the poll to go by
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:37 AM
New Zogby only has Obama up by 2. Race is tightening...
i have to wonder about a polling place that want to charge you for poll results
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:39 AM
Okay, so nobody from Pittsburgh is allowed to comment on West Virginia. I used to live in Pittsburgh and the mutual animosity is pretty intense. I don't know if WV will flip for Obama this time around or not, but it did, until recently, have a fairly moderate electorate. Still does, except when it comes to presidential elections.
Obama doesn't need WV, McCain does (along with about 8 other states where he is currently behind). The national race is over.
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:41 AM
To be precise, the Zogby is 2.7 points Obama down from 3.9 points yesterday.
Gallup and Rasmussen are really the ones to look at but as I've said a thousand times on here, if McCain can't hold his battleground states then these national polls don't matter.
Hey, anyone seen this picture? Its classic - and NOT manipulated...
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:42 AM
I know, I know... let's all say it together...
Just having a standard issue case of democrat hand wringing.
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:48 AM
Zogby on Reuters' website says:
"For the first time in the polling McCain is up above 45 percent. There is no question something has happened," Zogby said.
Is he not looking at this own results on his own website? McCain was already above 45% twice before... here's the link http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597
Zogby is great at spinning these things! Always has an explanation ready.
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:53 AM
If zogby spent as much time trying to get it right as he does trying to explain his dartboard results I might actually worry about a zogby poll.
Posted on October 19, 2008 1:56 AM
I just played McCain to win West Virginia. At the current Intrade rate, slightly above 60, it's worth an investment.
I still think this is like the primaries, Obama the winner but some of his monetary backers spreading the optimism too broadly in unlikely states, ones where he is up against it. Hillary had big chance in moderate West Virginia but I think Obama trying to win a state with only 17% self-described liberals, and very few blacks, is simply too much. To win that state, white women would have to favor Obama by considerable margin, and there's zero likelihood of that nationwide. White women figure to vote slightly for McCain, or possibly even if Obama wins overall by 5+%.
Besides, it looks like the race is naturally tightening so that will yank the second tier states away from Obama.
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:00 AM
if 2000 taught us anything being winning the popular(nationally) vote doesnt make you president. if that was so we d be looking at obama as the replacement for al gore in the dem party right? yep thats right.
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:03 AM
This feels like a concession/reconciliation from Brooks...
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:05 AM
UPCOMING ON THE TRAIL
Obama in VA
Biden in NM & NV
Jill Biden in MO
Hillary in OH
McCain in FL
Palin in OH & IN
Obama in MO
Biden in CA
Jill Biden in MO
Kerry in NH
McCain in NC & VA
Palin in PA
Cindy McCain in PA
Obama in NC
Biden in WA
Jill Biden in MO
Bill Clinton in NV
McCain in OH
Palin in NM
Cindy McCain in PA
Obama in FL
Biden in CO
Hillary in FL
Bill Clinton in NV
McCain in MO
Palin in CO
Cindy McCain in PA
Obama in FL
Biden in CO
Hillary in MN
Michelle Obama in FL
McCain in PA
Palin in NV
Biden in CO
Kerry in IA
Michelle Obama in FL
McCain in NH
Palin in MO(?)
Obama in WI
McCain in CO
Palin in NC(?)
1) Obama is taking no state for granted.
2) McCain has all but conceded IA, MN, and WI; but he stubbornly clings to the hope that he can flip PA and/or NH.
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:19 AM
SWING STATE NEWSPAPER ENDORSEMENTS
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:29 AM
The first of many new state polls turning back to red!
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:52 AM
"Zogby has McCain down by only 2.7"
I've said it before and I'll say it again. Obama will not win this election. Funny to me how the foregone conclusion is that Obama is going to / has already won the election.
You watch. And then when it happens the world will be shocked and everyone will be up in arms as to what happened.
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:54 AM
Keep dreaming trolls.
Posted on October 19, 2008 3:02 AM
It's nonsense to write WV off to the Repubs. It was blue in two Republican presidential landslides in the 1980s and Dem in the 90s. And the polling is all over the place.
Maine certainly looks secure now. I'd like to see one more poll in MN and NH to confirm that they're secure. VA looks strong, and both NM and CO are looking stronger all the time. Remember, Obama is disproportionately strong in the battleground states, no matter what the tracking polls are doing. McCain is simply not an attractive candidate. Stay cool.
Posted on October 19, 2008 3:09 AM
Do you want to know the Truth?
According to Zogby poll website,
.... Obama leads by a 46% to 38% margin among Independents.
... Obama wins 88% of Democrats, McCain wins 90% of Republicans.
If we apply Party ID weighting according to Rasmussen. ( New Rasmussen Reports Partisan Weighting Targets: 39.7% Democrat 33.0% Republican on Oct 19th), Obama is leading Maccain by 7.5 percent.
So the real zoby poll would be Obama 50.2% Maccain 42.7% (undecide 7.2%.)
Of course, you can still dream.... until nov 4th.
Posted on October 19, 2008 3:25 AM
Blah blah blah. The race is tightening when logically it should be going in the opposite direction. Obama's spread the wealth comment is, unfortunately, going to sink him.
CO, IA, FL, and VA stay red. The other yellow states on the map stay Red. That leave Obama with 257 EV. Oops.
Once gain we liberals were so close to victory. Dumb dumb dumb.
Posted on October 19, 2008 3:47 AM
Posted on October 19, 2008 3:48 AM
"CO, IA, FL, and VA stay red"
Based on everything we have seen on the ground and in polling, this wins the award for the most stupid comment of the week.
Posted on October 19, 2008 4:12 AM
Think what you want. You watch. I'll be correct.
Republicans have a better ground game. Proven in last two elections. And they are excellent at suppressing votes.
Posted on October 19, 2008 4:13 AM
Dem party id advantage has been steadily moving up over the past month nationally.
For polling data released during the week of October 19-25, 2008, the partisan weighting targets will be 39.7% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.3% unaffiliated. For the preceding week, the partisan weighting targets were 39.3% Democratic, 33.0% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated.
Posted on October 19, 2008 4:52 AM
....courtesy of rasmussen
Posted on October 19, 2008 4:53 AM
You democrats are fools now that Obama has been exposed for not being able to win WV...I thought you guys were saying that he was ahead there...I guess you guys lied lied lied, as this poll proves.. Shame on you all.
Posted on October 19, 2008 4:59 AM
Well Zogby is down to 3 % +O I think this is the poll which deserves more attention now, because it seems to be the only one that detected two things:
1-McCain having a sort of game chnager debate
2-Obama dropping from it's ceiling.
I honestly don't feel the need of packining, since the Obama campaign has been conducted masterfully up to now and it is true, McCain won last week. I also noticed one thing looking at RCP average of last elections. Kerry also was closing the gap in the last 2 weeks and Bush stayed around a steady value. I tend to think that people who stress the importance of being constantly around the 49=51% range is very important for Obama in the 2 weeks to come.
Posted on October 19, 2008 5:40 AM
its not it's .... sunday morning lol
Posted on October 19, 2008 5:47 AM
Zogby is a joke! I am not even sure the man polls people. After listening to the crap he has said on Hannity's show i would not believe a single result of his.
Posted on October 19, 2008 5:52 AM
After looking at Zogby's internals he is actually polling more Republicans then he is Democrats. If you gave Obama a party ID advantage of 6% he would be right about where the TIPP poll is. So I guess as long as Obama is tied or leading according to Zogby Obama is doing very well.
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:07 AM
1503er: "Blah blah blah. The race is tightening when logically it should be going in the opposite direction."
You are wrong. Races almost always tighten in the end. Since you obviously don't know that, you shouldn't be posting here. Simply read what more knowledgeable people are writing and try to learn.
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:09 AM
Assume the worse and hope for the best. My take is that a wise campaign should consider the thigtening and respond. But, again, I have confidence in Obama's campaign.
Besides, Zogby number is close to the average of LV1 and LV2 in Gallup yesterday.
Ok I'm spitting it out now. looking at some of these pollster one may argue that when a change in the oscillations is detected by Gallup o Ras, the others allign in a couple of days. this happened in both ways. Strange isn't it? But it's just a gut feeling
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:26 AM
I think Ras has shown a consistant race and is on the number. Someone needs to explain to me in Gallup how Obama can lead by 8% with regestisterd votors and is only ahead by 4 with the expanded LV even though every poll shows higher enthusiasm for the democrats.
Gallup RV Obama 50% Mcliar 42%
Expanded LV Obama 50% McLiar 46%
This simply is not logical or even possible
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:35 AM
It seems to me that the race has tightened in all the national polls. Either the debate had no effect (my view) or it helped McCain a little. It shows how useless it is to take a poll about 'who won' a debate. What counts is how many it helped change or make up their minds.
Another thing often overlooked is that a debate gives each side themes, talking points and sound bites, positive and negative, to push over the next few days. I am biased in favour of McCain so I might have this wrong but it seems to me that a lot more material come out of the debate for McCain to use than for Obama to latch onto.
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:36 AM
I think because of obama's comment "spread the wealth around", he will lose a few points.
In fact, that is happening now... however, i guess it will not be enough for Maccain to turn around.
The gap will be 3-4 percent until the end.
And he will get 350+ EV
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:44 AM
It is possible if you consider different weights in different models, i.e. different party affiliations, demographics and so on so forth. In the last 2004 elections Gallup (if I remember correctly) RV model was giving a slight advantage to Kerry, while LV models gave a number very close to outcome of the elections.
The reason why Ras and Gallup are indeed trustworthy more than other pollsters is because the sizes of their samples. So I agree with you I tend to trust their numbers, but it is possible that RV, LV1,LV2 speak different languages, therefore will tell you different sotries.
They are models not raw data gathering
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:52 AM
Obama raises $150 million in September
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:53 AM
probably the comment came just after Obama's thrust has stalled. Nate at 538 pointed out this already
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:54 AM
you are right, the Joe the plumber and obama's comment "spread the wealth around" is now the theme of Maccain's campaign... and it is more resonating theme with undecided voters than the Ayers' story.
As an obama supporter, when i listened the comment, i myself was quite shocked... i know he doesn't mean anything like socialism but the expression was really a gaffe.
I hope it is not making such a big thing like his bitter comment.
So, in a way, the race becomes more tense and exciting... well, even though i'm bit worried but also it's entertaining... but frankly speaking, i'm very sure that Obama will win by landslide... (3-4 percent in popular vote, 350+EV)
Posted on October 19, 2008 6:58 AM
Thanks for the explanation however I think this year you throw out the models from past election. 175,000 in two events in Missouri yesterday. Kerry as much as I like him would have been lucky to get 50,000 on a Saturday. I have no way of knowing it, but I think the pollsters are missing the boat with turnout this year.
Posted on October 19, 2008 7:02 AM
'I have no way of knowing it, but I think the pollsters are missing the boat with turnout this year.'
You have a point here, and also it explains a lot about polls adjustments. you me and pollsters share the same knowledge about the effect of the turnout, which is zero more or less.
My feeling is that by the middle of this week we could see a clearer situation in the polls.
Posted on October 19, 2008 7:08 AM
What time is Powell scheduled to come on Meet The Press (E.T)
Posted on October 19, 2008 7:53 AM
MCCAIN MAKES BIG MOVE ON OBAMA IN NEWEST REUTERS/ZOGBY POLL - LEAD NOW DOWN TO 2.7%!
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Poll: Obama 47.8%, McCain 45.1%
UTICA, New York - Republican John McCain continued a slow advance on Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, moving back within three percentage points as the race begins to head down the stretch run, the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking poll shows.
McCain now trails Obama by 2.7 points, down from the 3.9 point deficit he faced 24 hours earlier.
Seven-point-one percent of the likely voters surveyed said they remain undecided.
Obama lost five-tenths of a point from yesterday's report, while McCain gained another six-tenths of a point. It was the third consecutive day in which Obama's numbers slipped and McCain's numbers increased.
McCain has once again moved above 45% support overall, a mark he has not seen since the second day of daily tracking reports. Obama's slip under 48% support is the first time at that level in nearly a week. He now stands within one-tenth of a percent of where he stood when the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily tracking began almost two weeks ago. McCain is within two-tenths of a percent of where he was when the tracking poll began.
During the 13 days of the tracking poll, Obama has led by as much as 6.2 points and as little as 1.9 points.
McCain made a big move Saturday among independent voters, cutting's Obama lead from 16 points to just 8 points. Now, Obama leads by a 46% to 38% margin, with the balance of independents either unsure or supporting someone else. McCain's strong performance at the Alfred E. Smith charity dinner in New York City Thursday, combined with his appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman Thursday night, may have had a positive effect. Other Zogby polling has recently shown that independent undecided voters tend to prefer consuming their politics in such entertainment venues. Obama was also praised for his performance at the Alfred E. Smith dinner.
Both candidates have remained strong among their political bases - McCain wins 90% of Republicans, compared to 88% of Democrats who support Obama.
Men are now, again, tilting very slightly in favor of McCain, who leads by just two percentage points among the group. Among women, Obama leads, but only by six points.
Obama continues to win 18% support among conservative voters, while McCain wins only seven percent among liberals. Among moderates, a demographic that includes substantially more Democrats than Republicans, Obama leads, 61% to 33% for McCain.
Among those who consider themselves investors, McCain retains a small, four-point lead - helpful but no where near as large a margin as Republican George W. Bush enjoyed over his Democratic rival four years ago.
Posted on October 19, 2008 7:56 AM
That's because Americans don't like socialism.
Posted on October 19, 2008 7:58 AM
Finally, race tied on Sunday, ha boomshak?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:00 AM
Zogby is a joke!
Zogby's numbers are almost exactly the same as Gallup's traditional LV model.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:01 AM
Also, just because you say socialism 1000 times, having progressive taxes doesn't make it so, unless you consider USA to be socialist for 200 years. Reasonable folks who actually start paying more attention to election now will figure that out.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:03 AM
On Zogby, as it's been said on this site numerously, he has 2 point dem advantage. If you feel confident that this will be the case this year, then go nuts, and celebrate 'lead down to 3 points'
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:06 AM
Only 16 days to go, and then its all over. Its OK now, we'll all walk you through the next couple of weeks. ;)
TO EVERYONE ELSE:
Please stop replying to his posts with rationality. Just tell him it'll be over soon.
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:25 AM
Ras has it at O+6. Nice little 1 point bump. We'll take it at this late stage. Why does Ras report early on Sundays?
Posted on October 19, 2008 8:27 AM
maddiekat i saw on some website that kerry had gotton 100k in Wisconsin in 2004 i do believe bruce Springsteen was at it so it may have had a concert effect was he at obamas yesterday too?
Posted on October 19, 2008 10:16 AM
Here is another poll to confirm....
NBC/Mason-Dixon poll for West Virginia
McCain 47%- Obama 41%.
Only one poll ever had Obama in lead...
ARG 10/4-8/08 600 LV McCain 42 Obama 50
And another had it well within margin of error...
InsiderAdvantage 10/13/08 522 LV McCain 49 Obama 47
Yes, it looked like WV was trending to Obama. And Obama campaign had recently decided to run non-stoop ads in WV.
In response to ndirish11 who brings up the race card... GET OVER IT. Race is not the issue. Social conservative values are. Obama may just be too far left for majority of WV voters.
BTW: It is also Obama's self-made problem and not a WV problem. Obama has hardly spent a nanosecond of time in WV. In contrast, way back in 1988, Jesse Jackson campaigned in WV even though he did not expect to win there.
Posted on October 19, 2008 11:36 AM
Hey...AJ... who stated "Also, just because you say socialism 1000 times, having progressive taxes doesn't make it so, unless you consider USA to be socialist for 200 years."
"Progressive taxes" have NOT been around for 200 years.
Here is a quick history lesson--
1791 to 1802: Internal taxes on distilled spirits, carriages, refined sugar, tobacco and snuff, property sold at auction, corporate bonds, and slaves.
War of 1812: first sales taxes on gold, silverware, jewelry, and watches.
1817: Congress did away with all internal taxes, relying on tariffs on imported goods.
1862: In order to support the Civil War effort, Congress enacted the nation's first income tax law.
1868, Congress again focused its taxation efforts on tobacco and distilled spirits.
1872: Congress eliminated the income tax.
1894-1895: Reinstated income tax which was found unconstitutional.
1913: 16th Amendment to the Constitution made the income tax permanent.
So, "progressive tax" as we know it has only been in place for 95 years... not 200.
Posted on October 19, 2008 11:49 AM
Actually the Civil War era income tax was a "progressive tax". That was the one ended in 1872. It was revived in 1890...but then declared Unconstitutional. Individuals like Teddy Roosevelt, Robert Taft, William Jennings Bryant, and Woodrow Wilson supported the 16th Amendment in the early 1900's...and the "progressive movement" were capable of getting it through Congress and almost all the State legislatures.
And the idea of a "progressive income tax" was first floated by some fellow named Adam Smith in the "Wealth of Nations". It's actually a part of this fundamental theoretical work on Capitalism.
But the idea that taxes "spread the wealth around" is pretty ancient. After all, even excise taxes take from those that have (or want) and redistribute it to others who don't. You tax whiskey, tea, tobacco...and you then take money from those that produce or consume those products and pass it on to others (perhaps arms manufacturers, or contractors for public buildings, or school teachers). Property taxes take from those that have land and pass it to those that have children, or differentially need hospitals, or police or fire protection.
Posted on October 19, 2008 2:30 PM
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