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WV-Sen: 48% Raese (R), 46% Manchin (D) (Rasmussen 9/27)

Topics: poll , West Virginia

Rasmussen
9/27/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

West Virginia

2010 Senate
48% Raese (R), 46% Manchin (D) (chart)

 

Comments
Dave:

I bet Manchin's wishing he had waited until 2012 right about now don't you think?

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billwy:

I figured the next round of polls would show Maes taking a small lead. Manchin came out for partial healthcare reform repeal yesterday. Wonder if that might help save his butt. Though I get the feeling the reason they don't like Obama in WV is the coal...

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BH:

Raese may have unstoppable momentum now. Put this one as lean R.

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niikeb:

I wish someone else would poll this one, but I think I'll drop some $ into this race. It's the replacement for Deleware.

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Fred:

Manchin pulled an Arlen Spector move yesterday by coming out in favor of repeal of some of the health care bill. It was a bad move on his part, because it won't make GOP voters change their vote. They want the real deal; not the wishy-washy second best. Dems who were in support of the bill now won't be as enthused to vote for Manchin. Raese is in good position to win this one now. Flip-floppers and wishy-washy candidates are not winning this election cycle. I guess Manchin didn't get the memo.

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Farleftandproud:

The bottom line is that Raes is a guy who just doesn't care about the common people, and they would be absolute morons to elect him. He made a statement about the Good ol days of capitalism and his ancestors who came here. Those good ol days of capitalism 2000 miners died per year. I hope that Manchin will slam him on this arrogant comment.

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Kaw-liga:

70% of West Virginians think Obama's the problem - hard to argue that sending another Democrat to Washington will help anything.

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Farleftandproud:

Yeah, it figures they would think that. It is always the poorest states that seem to have a hard time with Obama. It is still no reason to send the other idiot to Washington. What irritates me the most, is that a GOP governor would reduce taxes a lot more than keeping Manchin as Governor and sending a Republican who will probably bring no money back to their state.Besides Raes is an idiot


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Farleftandproud:

Raese made a stop on Laura Ingraham's wingnutty radio show:


RAESE: My grandmother. It is what she created and what she did at the turn of the century, it still resonates today, if we would have the opportunity in this country to bring back capitalism in the way my grandmother had those fruits and really enjoyed it. ... [C]apitalism the way it should be. [...]
INGRAHAM: Could you grandmother start her business empire today, in this climate?

RAESE: Well, it would be a long long time to do it, and a lot of expensive permits to do it, but knowing my grandmother, she could do it. But it would take a lot more effort that it would at the turn of the century.

We already know he's against the minimum wage and wants to abolish it, but Think Progress wonders what else Raese's nostalgia could imply:


Of course, while rolling back a century of labor, environmental, and civil rights regulations might make it easier for Raese, it would be absolutely disastrous for every working American. "Capitalism the way it should be," as Raese dubbed it, included regular use of child labor, widespread repression of organized labor, virtually zero regulations on workplace safety or fairness - including racial and gender discrimination- and unchecked environmental degradation. "At the beginning of the century, workers in the United States faced remarkably high health and safety risks on the job," a Center for Disease Control history stated, noting the "large decreases in work-related deaths from the high rates and numbers of deaths among workers during the early 20th century."
Raese is the latest of a string of teabagger candidates who are bitter about the reforms of the past century. Considering that many West Virginians fought and died to enact those standards, his run here is just a bit insulting.

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BH:

FLP is losing it. Anyway, this might cheer him up. Rass. has the President's approval at 50/49 today.

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Farleftandproud:

The Good news about WV is like Scott Brown, it is a 2 year term. If Raes governs this way, I doubt he'll last. Quite a few states didn't like George W. Bush that much but re-elected Republican senators.

If Ras has Obama at 50/49, in regards to the CT race, I think Blumenthal will pull it out. Probably his approval is up in Washington and his home state as well to help Murray and Alexi win. I still haven't given up on Feingold, but it will be an uphill battle when you are being outspent 5-1 and have clever ads stretching the truth.

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ltstevo:

Seriously, FLAP, I'm disappointed in you. We expect the ad hominem attacks, hate-speech, and race cards from Melvin, Nelcon, and Paleo, but you usually spend more time analyzing data and are a bit more restrained in your attacks.

To embrace a free economy without suffocating regulations does not make one a racist who has no regard for any sort of worker/consumer protections whatsoever. You are throwing up strawmen in order to dehumanize a candidate. And your array of condescending names, e.g. "wingnut" and "teabagger" add nothing to the discussion. In fact, unless you are under 30 like me, using the term "teabag" looks ridiculous, much like older people on Facebook.

Finally, the minimum wage has proven itself to be an economic glass ceiling. It favors white people with union connections and keeps minorities locked into cycles of poverty. I care about the poor and justice, which is why I think we must get rid of the minimum wage now.

Of course, you probably just read that (if you did) and interpreted it as "locking minorities up and getting rid of the poor."

C'mon, FLAP, step it up!

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Dave:

Raese favors getting rid of the minimum wage?

Awesome, now I support him even more.

The minimum wage only makes it tougher for people to find jobs.

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Kaw-liga:

I'm sure having Obama at the top of the ticket would be a huge help to any challenger to Raese in 2012.

The trend is really Raese's friend -- how far will it go?

-16, -6, -5, -7, +3, +2 -> ?

I would guess the (-7) was an outlier and should have been more like (-3). Will Raese hit 50% by mid-October - any bets?

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SC Guy:

Reality has to set in to West Virginia politics sooner or later. As recently as 1996, West Virginia voted for Clinton-Gore by a margin of 52%-37%. But it's been all downhill for the Dems since then and Barack Obama is more popular in Utah than he is in West Virginia according to this poll (68% of West Virginians disapprove of Obama's job performance).

While he was losing neighbouring Virginia by a wide margin, John McCain crushed Obama 56%-43% in WV. This simply means that while the Dems still enjoy a solid advantage in the state's politics (for now), federal politics are drifting rightward because the national Dems are far too liberal for most southerners. I think John Raese has an excellent chance in WV and I hope he wins.

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Cederico:

This is alarming. I am not going to sugarcoat this at all. Manchin should not be behind John Raese...period. He is extremely personally popular and should be far ahead of the two time loser Raese.

I suspect that Obama's unpopularity in WV is weighing Manchin down. The NRSC is smartly tying Manchin to Obama at every turn.

Manchin will have to go into attack mode to save himself from orchestrating a disastrous election that he didn't have to call.

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Field Marshal:

The bottom line is that Raes is a guy who just doesn't care about the common people, and they would be absolute morons to elect him.

Yes! GO Raese! F the common people! LOL.

FLAP, did you forget your meds this morning?

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Bob in SJ:

I'm not going to count Manchin out yet, but the trendline is a bit distressing. He does have the support of the US Chamber of Commerce and the Unions, which should help; the UCC won't put out mailers in support of him, but they won't attack him either, and the Union support will help with mail and GOTV. This is going to be between 1 and 3% on election night, barring any major developments.

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Mogando669:

FLP : "It is always the poorest states that seem to have a hard time with Obama."

Incorrect on 3 points :

1. Appalachia was always welcoming to Dems - Clinton won WV, KY, and TN in 92 and 96. It's only Obama's extreme left stances that turn those states off. Even a state like MA chose to elect Scott-Brown as an indirect punishment for Obama's arrogance. And IL is about to do the same for Obama's OLD SEAT.

2. Obama's favorite North Carolina is ranked #37 in median household income, and NM is worse at #44.

3. Interestingly enough, the poorest people have a GREAT time with Obama.

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Cederico:

Bob,

I think Manchin can win comfortably if he aggressively goes after Raese and his Florida Lifestlye of the Rich and Famous. Manchin also has to aggressively seize on the Bob Byrd legacy of putting West Virginia first and bringing home the bacon.

He is extraordinarily popular and can win big in this race. These polls are his wakeup call...a big scare is what will likely save his hide.

One thing is sure. If Manchin wins in November, he will not be supporting Obama's agenda much over the next two years. He would have to stand for re-election in 2012 a presidential election year when Obama will lose WV big.

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Farleftandproud:

I am sorry I quoted the word "tea bagger" but the rest of the quote came right from Laura Ingraham's program. You can't deny it wasn't true. Google it, and you can even see the interview with Raes.

Obama's extreme policies? How exactly is Obama's policies so different from Bill Clinton's? What is a Democrat supposed to be like? Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson?

As for those who want to do away with the minumum wage? They are idiots, plain and simple. Like what is the minimum wage in WV? like $5 per hour? How could anyone ever vote for some creep like Raes. This defines my point about why people vote against their own interests, and until people can come to their senses, our nation will continue to go down the drain.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Cedrico

I had forgotten about the Florida issue - it could get some strong play. And you're right, I think that the only thing that Obama can't count on from Manchin is a vote for a Democratic majority leader.

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Field Marshal:

Obama's extreme policies? How exactly is Obama's policies so different from Bill Clinton's? What is a Democrat supposed to be like? Joe Lieberman or Ben Nelson?

Do you not see you glaring hypocrisy? You don't want YOUR democrats to be moderates like Nelson and Lieberman but then criticize the Reps for not supporting their moderates like Castle and Snowe. HYPOCRITE!

As for those who want to do away with the minumum wage? They are idiots, plain and simple. Like what is the minimum wage in WV? like $5 per hour? How could anyone ever vote for some creep like Raes.

First of all, the state minimum wage cannot be below the federal one, which is $7.15. $7.15 per hour in parts of WV is almost a middle class wage which is WHY the minimum wage should be abolished. These people ARE voting for their self-interest in eliminating it because it would mean more jobs for these people. These people actually know economics instead of populist nonsense like yourself.

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boomer40:

"$7.15 per hour in parts of WV is almost a middle class wage"

Let them eat cake!

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tjampel:

Fred:

"Manchin pulled an Arlen Spector move yesterday by coming out in favor of repeal of some of the health care bill. It was a bad move on his part, because it won't make GOP voters change their vote. They want the real deal"

This is utter nonsense and hypocrisy coming from you. Mancin is coming out for exactly the same thing that Republicans just came out for in their so called "Pledge for America". Read what they have to say about HCR. They favor retaining most, if not all of the popular parts of the current law. They trashed the law and at first said repeal the whole thing and now they act as if they're the ones proposing a ban on denial of coverage for pre-existing conditions, etc. They are unable to credit Dems with anything, even though they couldn't care less about the reforms they're now touting in their own HCR plank. Fact is that those items are ONLY in the Repub plank now because Dems pushed them. Bush didn't and the Repub Congress didn't. Now they want credit for them. And now you say Mancin didn't give people what they want?

The part that most people don't like forces people to buy coverage.

Polls showed that 60-70% of people like ALL (not virtually all...all) of the provisions that have gone into effect over the past 6 months.

Why should Mancin come out against these popular provisions?

More to the point why are YOU against them when Repubs support them officially now?

Are you a supporter of pre-existing conditions for children, kicking people out of plans when they have expensive illnesses for innocent mistakes on their forms, etc? If you are then you're totally out of touch with the American people, since they DO want these reforms.

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Farleftandproud:

Well the minimum wage increase at the federal level was due to the Democrats in the house and senate who pushed hard for it in the last two years of Bush. As much as the conservatives love to hate Pelosi, I bet down the road there will be a lot Americans will be thankful for. The Democrats gave us Medicare for the old. If it wasn't for them, we would live in a society where old people would be thrown away like trash. Thank God for this congress.

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lat:

Well according to Field Marshall it's all over so the dems will just have to stop campaiging at this point. All bow to Field Marshall the magnificent... knows all and sees all!

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Field Marshal:

Well according to Field Marshall it's all over so the dems will just have to stop campaiging at this point. All bow to Field Marshall the magnificent... knows all and sees all!

Agreed.

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Aaron_in_TX:

This seat was going to be competitive whenever Byrd died. The Rockefeller seat will also be very hard to retain once he retires.

WV, along with the rest of the Appalachian region and the upper south, has been moving away from dems for a long time. There isn't much they can do about that. It's been moving the wrong way for a generation.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

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Fred:

@tjampel

once again, I shouldn't bother to reply to you, since you didn't read my whole post, but as I was saying, Manchin is only just coming out against these parts of health care. Raese has been against them. People want to support the real deal.......not the wishy-washy candidate who is only now coming out against these things in order to save his campaign. Why wasn't he campaigning against these health care provisions 1 or 2 months ago? Raese was, and he was down by 15 or 20 back then. This is my whole point.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"They favor retaining most, if not all of the popular parts of the current law."

The only really unpopular part was the individual mandate.

If the republicans are saying only repeal "part" of it, then it has been a success in moving the entire landscape of the health care debate leftward, similar to how the Patriot Act or Iraq/Afghanistan have pushed the foreign policy debate rightward whether liberals like it or not. They have to operate in that framework.

The pledge says this on p. 27:

"Health care should be accessible for all,
regardless of pre-existing conditions or past
illnesses. We will expand state high-risk
pools, reinsurance programs and reduce the
cost of coverage. We will make it illegal for
an insurance company to deny coverage to
someone with prior coverage on the basis of
a pre-existing condition, eliminate annual
and lifetime spending caps, and prevent
insurers from dropping your coverage just
because you get sick."

Isn't that the same thing democrats say? Isn't "access for all" a little socialistic? Just a little??

According to people like Stillow it is, because preventing pre-existing denials is rewarding bad behavior and poor preparation/life choices.

Besides, the current HCR bill already does all that. It was the crux of it.

It says a few vague things they will do, like stregnthen the "doctor-patient relationship" (what does that mean?), but specifically they only have three proposals:

Sell insurance across state lines
Malpractice reform
Expand HSAs

I see no problem with any of those, and they should have been included in the current bill. Although I think they are window dressing for the most part. The big health ins. companies already compete across state lines and have similar prices in states with similar regulations (my old United plan was similarly priced in at least 20 states). The smaller or state-specific health ins. plans are not sold across state lines because they are tailored to that state. I have Scott & White, which is TX-only and offeres better coverage than the others because it is non-profit and has deals with its network of providers that the state gov't helped work out.

So that may reduce prices among the larger carriers by streamlining some of their costs state-by-state, but probably not a big deal.

Tort reform my reduce costs by a little bit. TX implemented in in 2003 by capping awards at $250K, it hasn't had a lot of effect on over all prices but it's something.

HSAs are nice, but if you don't have money to save, they don't really do you a lot of good, but I see no reason not to encourage use of them as an option.

So when you get into the details it doesn't sound like they are "replacing," it sounds like they are "amending."

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Paleo:

"Sell insurance across state lines
Malpractice reform
Expand HSAs"

Selling insurance across state lines would eviscerate state regulation of insurance companies and practices. Which is what these supposed states rightitsts want. Maximize health insurer profits while weakening consumer protections.

So-called malpractice reform is the same garbage. Protect negligent doctors at the expense of injured patients by making it difficult to sue.

HSA have been shown to employers dropping health coverage, leaving employees on their own and to pick up more of the tab.

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Bukama:

People always want more benefits/services/treatments. They don't want to pay for them, however, and certainly don't want to pay for other people to have them.

The current HCR act only works if you force everyone to get insurance. Otherwise, you can't force insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions - everyone will wait till they have a condition before getting insurance. But forcing every person in America to get insurance is likely unconstitutional - the Dems and Reps have to come up with another solution. Even if forced purchase of a private product were not unconstitutional, it is an assault against freedom and an intrusion into private matters that the large majority of Americans don't like.

The alternative solution has to be government paying for care of uninsured children (and adults) at just a minimal level. Emergency care, basic care, but no experimental treatments, no long-shot efforts with a low probability of success. We simply can't afford gold-plated health care as an entitlement - our Social Secuirty and Medicare entitlements are already breaking the back of this country.

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DB:

When I read a poll is from a Republican or a Democratic pollster, I always subtract a few points off the "side" of the pollster. Then the poll is probably a little more accurate.

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