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Yes, We Have House Charts!

Topics: 2006 , The 2006 Race

A few quick updates on the poll data we track on races for the House of Representatives:

First, as of last night, we now have charts available for all 84 House districts for which we currently have polling data. Clicking on a link for any House district on our House map and national summary table now takes you directly to the chart for that race, just like the links on our Senate and Governor maps. This latest update means that any our 84 House district charts,** like the one from can be embedded on your blog or website using the new "embed Chart feature" (see yesterday's post for details).

Second, an apology for the slightly slower pace of blog posts over the last 48 hours or so as we worked to get these new upgrades and features up and running. I have also been spent a lot of time the last few days crunching my "big-spreadsheet-o'House" and will have a more in-depth review of the available polling data later today. For those who cannot wait, you can find the abridged version in our Slate House Election Scorecard updates on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Finally, a quick update on a bit of anecdotal evidence I discussed last Saturday. There is one source of polling largely out of public view - the internal polls conducted by the campaigns and party committees. Some of these get released, but typically only when they show good news for that particular campaign. So one indirect measure of where things stand is which side is releasing more of its internal polling, and by that measure the Democrats are a lot more confident: Since Labor Day, Democrats have released 54 internal polls for House candidates logged into our Pollster.com database, Republicans have released only 13. And that confidence has not abated in the last two weeks. Since October 15, Democrats have released 21 internal polls, Republicans only 2.

**Unfortunately, many of the House races have only a handful of polls. As of this morning, roughly half of the districts in our database have three or fewer polls, and that will make for a very sparse looking chart. Keep in mind that the trend line represents the average of the last 5 (or fewer) polls at any given point in time. So for the first few polls in the series, the lines may draw in ways that seem a little confusing.

 

Comments
Dwight McCabe:

Thank you for your hard work on collecting and mapping all these polls, plus educating everyone on the nuances of reading polls.

However, I do question the use of averages when polls are so sparse and you include polls six months old or more in your average. Of course we all know that races can change dramatically after Labor Day. Including a poll showing the incumbent ahead by 20 points in June, when the challenger has low name recognition, can skew the average when September and October polls usually show a much closer race or even has the challenger ahead by a few points.

Despite limited polling data points, I'd throw out any polls more than, say, two months old from your average or trend lines.

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Matt Wos:

this is awesome. Thank you so much for this site!

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Shaun Bowler:

Just echoing Matt Wos.... you and Charles are doing a fantastic job with this site and Pol Arithmetik. This really is informative work. Thank you both.

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