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let the games begin.

Rock Me Amadeous

McCain Surge Continues... !!!

Do I treat these as one additional day of the zogby polls released yesterday, or are those entirely fresh samples?

I can't stand Zogby polls, but I will take these numbers!

God bless this country, we're headed and a great new direction!

Sorry repubs, I voted for you 8 years ago because I wanted to escape liberman, I'm doing the same this election....haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

11 hours . . . then a bit of reality

I'll continue to remain cautiously optimistic until after 8PM tonight.

Grain of salt stat: Zogby also has it Obama +11 in his final poll. These are based on 2004 turnout weightings, no less.

At this point, no pollster has pointed to any McCain surge in the last couple days of the campaign; Zogby's entire reputation for the past 8 years was based on the fact that he was pretty much the only pollster to detect a pro-Gore surge in the final days. If he had seen one again this year, I'm sure he would have published such data -- just to be a maverick-y gadfly.

Please . What site can you advise for chating on the election ... With a lot of people and pundits ??

thanks a lot

Well, take them for what they're worth.. but they are phone surveys.

A good morning for CHANGE and HOPE ..

If Ohio goes as close as this indicates, anticipate claims of fraud from GOP lawyers...

The good news: Kerry + VA + NV = 270. Assume any combo of these additional states: IA, CO, NM, OH, NC, FL, ND, MT, GA, AZ, IN and we are home...

IA, CO, and NM have polled strongly for Obama! Even if Obama loses VA, I am hopeful...
He could win a squeaker with Kerry + CO + NM + IA.
PA or VA or FL is the key. McCain needs them all.

MO is a must win for McCain as well. The list of McCain must wins should make McCain supporters feel pretty bad this morning and I can't say I feel sorry for them! : )

So PA largely stabilized in final polling, which is nice.

So far Obama winning big in NH (a couple of towns where polls opened at midnight):

"Dixville Notch's voters gave Obama a defeat over Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain 15-6. Independent Ralph Nader was also on the ballot, but received no votes. The town of Hart's Location reported 17 votes for Obama, 10 for McCain and two for write-in Ron Paul."

My wife and I voted for Obama in Pittsburgh, PA this morning. Beautiful weather, 20 minute lines at 7:00 a.m. Our polling station is tiny, so a 20 minute line is indicative of heavy turnout.

I am hopeful but can't stop thinking about Virginia. The RCP average is O+4.4.
Please Virginians, GOTV and vote OBAMA.

@Windependent

I'm tempted to ask you your polling location--we might have been in the same line based on your description!

going to vote. wearing a sweatshirt with the 2004 red vs. blue states map. On the blue states and canada also in blue it reads:

"the united states of liberty and education

on the red states it reads:

"JESUSLAND"

Anyone here old enough to remember 1968?

The whole world is watching,
again.

@DTM

I live in Wellington Heights in West View Borough. A bit outside city limits.

Quite a chore to get there at 7:00 after the late Steeler game. :)

You couldn't write the script,

I think after this election, we might well have a new disclaimer MOE also subject to turnout.

If these numbers are to be believed...taking the early voter numbers from Colorado...Obama takes PA, VA, and CO and this thing is OVER. Here is another much less likely scenario:

Obama carries the Kerry States + VA and somehow McCain carries out an unbelievable "upset" surge and wins IN,OH,MO,FL,NC,CO,NM,NV...Obama wins the election 272-266. We should know very early how this night will turn out with PA and VA being two of the first states to report...and based on these final polls in PA and VA I am feeling very good...but lets stay focused and GOTV!!

Lets take back this country OBAMA/BIDEN 2008!!

My previous post should have included IA in the "McCain Surge" scenario...

@Dana

"going to vote. wearing a sweatshirt with the 2004 red vs. blue states map. On the blue states and canada also in blue it reads"

Etc.

Dana, with all due respect, this is exactly the wrong message we as Democrats want to send, and the wrong lesson to learn from the last few years.

The reason Obama is apparently comfortably ahead in the electoral vote is because his campaign, and the DNC, didn't go for that red/blue dichotomy.

I live in a Democratic stronghold in a state that has largely voted Republican for national offices in recent years.

We as Democrats have what I think are very good reasons for voting for our candidates. But Republican voters also have their reasons.

I happen to think that our reasons are better. But it takes time, and patience, and effort, to convince some voters that our reasons are better than the Republican's reasons.

And many of those voters, for a variety of causes, are less inclined to listen to our case than to the Republicans.

But it can be done. Look at Virginia, North Carolina, and maybe Georgia, where many white, Republican-leaning voters have given Obama a chance.

In nearly every state-- blue states AND red states-- both parties have a baseline of 40% of the vote. There's nothing inherently wonderful about blue states or awful about red states. It's a matter of slowly convincing people that our economic plans, our view of the US's role in the world, our views on social issues, are better for them than the other guys' views.

By vilifying entire states where the vote doesn't go our way, you're making things harder for everyone. "Jesusland"? Do you realize what a crucial role traditionally black Christian churches have in mobilizing black folks in elections?

Lay off the caricature, and do something helpful.

Just voted in MN. The line was very long.

Epcot Center long.

Star Wars Episode One long.

I-Phone long.

I'm feeling pretty good about VA. I've worked campaigns here (& elsewhere). I live in a GOP precinct (socioeconomically middle-middle to slightly upper-middle) in a GOP suburban county in the Richmond area. The only people I recognized at my polling place were the election officals and my next-door neighbor. Past election returns suggest the Republicans around here are pretty good about turning out, so all those new folks are either newly motivated or ACORN is driving them around from polling place to polling place. ;)

@The whole world is watching

Amen, Brother! (and yes, I do)

@Windependent

I'm on the other side of town, so apparently we just had mirror image experiences.

Oh, and the nation owes a debt of gratitude to the Steelers.

Palin, please stay in Alaska.

Voted in PA. I've been at the same polling place for three presidential elections total, and numerous other national, state, and local elections. I have never seen a line as long as it was this morning. It went right out the door and into the parking lot.

I trust karl rove(least person i trust)more than Zogby polls.

@DTM:

Agreed. When my wife told me about the whole "Washington Wins" myth, and then the Steelers promptly gave up those two field goals, I wanted to cry.

Did you perchance get to see Rooney introduce Obama at the Arena last week? He was drowned out by a "here we go Steelers" chant when he hit the podium. Gotta love Pittsburgh. I won't soon forget that moment.

Thanks to the everyone at pollster.com for doing such great job.

@ Dana
Dana, I'm repulsed that we're voting the same ticket. Hopefully your line is very short so you don't turn off too many voters.

@ NashvilleLefty
Good comments but what about democratic white Christian voters? Despite it being more diverse than our counterparts, we still make up the majority of the democratic party.

@Windependent

The Redskins-incumbent party connection had something like a 40 year streak of accuracy, but it ended in 2004.

These numbers would mean Barack Obama becomes president, so they're fine by me, but I swear, I want Obama to win North Carolina and Georgia.

@angrytoxicologist

"Good comments but what about democratic white Christian voters? Despite it being more diverse than our counterparts, we still make up the majority of the democratic party."

You're absolutely right. In the haste of my response, I omitted the fact that Democrats can make, and have made, a persuasive Christian case for their political views to white voters.

Breaking through the calcification in many "red" states caused by Democrats not even trying to articulate their case is the current step in the evolution of our party. Bigotry like the sweatshirt mentioned above is not helpful.

I arrived at my NYC polling location around 7 AM. I was approx. #275 in line. By the time I moved up to about 225, there were another 100 or so behind me. It took about an hour to vote and get out. I know we're not a swing state, but still...

@BarackO'Clinton

Epcot has lines? when's the last time you've been there?

anyway, today feels like a dream world, it's really amazing how quick 2 years has passed since the midterms and how HARD everyone has WORKED since then.

Zogby Internals Nov 4 Already Voted
FL: Obama 53.4, McCain 45.7
IN: Obama 59.6, McCain 39.3
MO: Obama 57.2, McCain 37.4
NC: Obama 56.1, McCain 34.5
NV: Obama 61.6, McCain 37.6
OH: Obama 64.8, McCain 30.7
PA: Obama 73.5, McCain 23.5
VA: Obama 69.9, McCain 28.0

Zogby Internals Nov 4 Independents
FL: Obama 59.5, McCain 32.1
IN: Obama 44.1, McCain 40.5
MO: Obama 47.8, McCain 43.2
NC: Obama 58.6, McCain 37.3
NV: Obama 51.4, McCain 36.6
OH: Obama 52.9, McCain 40.5
PA: Obama 44.2, McCain 25.6
VA: Obama 54.1, McCain 36.6

I wonder what it must feel like to be a republican that knows they have done things not in the best interest of the country.

Think Karl Rove is thinking to himself "they're gonna be calling me a war criminal"...maybe that's why he has Obamas EV predictions in the 330's.

Zogby Internals Nov 4 Females
FL: Obama 50.3, McCain 48.5
IN: Obama 46.6, McCain 51.9
MO: Obama 49.0, McCain 47.6
NC: Obama 50.0, McCain 49.0
NV: Obama 57.8, McCain 39.1
OH: Obama 53.5, McCain 44.7
PA: Obama 55.6, McCain 37.7
VA: Obama 53.7, McCain 44.5

Nashville Lefty - Amen for your contribution. I am a Christian on the left who would always vote Dem...if I were a US citizen! Dems - please don't keep falling into the trap of stereotyping the south as under-educated, bigoted and beyond redemption. The average swing to Obama in 12 southern states is 8% based on final RCP polls - Nashville Lefty is correct: these are Reps and Indies willing to come back to the Dems this time, even if they don't win these states. Don't ignore the progress being made even in places like Mississippi and Texas. We are all willing you to GOTV! We'll be watching all through the night until a new era dawns!

Turnout high here in this normally R county (Madisonm VA). But noticed that R's did not have outside workers at my precinct. D's did, and I'll be that worker on the 2 PM --> 4 PM shift.

already trouble at the polls in Richmond and some other areas, as I predicted. One Richmond station opened nearly a half an hour late because the librarian, the ONLY person with the key, overslept. I don't know about you all, but if I were responsible for getting a polling station open on time for an election as historic as this one, I seriously doubt I could sleep, let alone OVERSLEEP. Another had 5 machines of 7 break down within minutes of opening. At LEAST this year they're allowing paper ballots in this situation when they didn't before, but they're also bringing over "new machines" which I don't freakin' trust for one second. In VA, it must be an EMERGENCY to use paper ballots, and in the past, that has meant that every single electronic machine at a station MUST BE broken down. Such BS.

If Virginia goes red people, it will be becuase of the usual "good old boys" conservative dirty tricks in this state. I'd bank my life savings on it.

And just for fun, according to my source (a local exit pollster), exit polls for the early voters in OUR district has it 70% for Obama – which is simply a lovely reflection of the enthusiasm the pundits have all been questioning. My partner was there on his crutches with me. I saw people of every stripe imaginable at 6 a.m., in the rain, waiting to vote. I saw wonderful REALLY old couples who could barely walk stand in that line and support each other as they shuffled forward, I saw Muslim women with their daughters, I saw entire families who came together, some who have emigrated from places like Uganda, Malaysia, Mexico, Sudan, Armenia (we have a large, LARGE apartment complex down the street from us filled up with immigrants and I get to see their children wait for the bus every morning, it's a lovely site). It’s a pretty amazing little slice of the U.N. right in my own neighborhood and so many were at the polls this morning, in the rain, waiting for their chance to vote for hope. I practically cried at the beauty of it the whole time I waited in line.

OH...VA VOTERS AND PRECINCT WORKERS PLEASE PASS ON - DO NOT FORGET TO CHECK THE DIGITAL READOUT AT THE BOTTOM OF YOUR ELECTRONIC MACHINE TO MAKE SURE YOUR LITTLE GREEN ARROW MATCHES THE NAME ON THE READOUT. VOTE FLIPPING OCCURS ON THESE KINDS OF MACHINES. DO NOT RELY ON THE LITTLE GREEN ARROWS NEXT TO YOU CANDIDATE'S NAME. EACH TIME YOU PRESS THE BUTTON AND GET THE ARROW LOOK AT THE DIGITAL READOUT ON THE LOWER LEFT AND MAKE SURE IT'S YOUR CANDIDATE'S NAME SHOWING UP BEFORE PRESSING THAT "ENTER VOTE" BUTTON. CHECK IT EACH TIME FOR EACH CANDIDATE!!!!! I HAVE SPOKEN TO PROBABLY 50 PEOPLE THIS MORNING WHO DID NOT KNOW TO CHECK THE DIGITAL READOUT, NEVER PAID ATTENTION TO IT IN THE PAST AND ARE NOW WONDERING IF, IN FACT, THEIR VOTES WERE CORRECT, INCLUDING THE PRECINCT WORKER HERSELF WHO ADMITTED SHE ONLY LOOKED AT THE GREEN ARROWS FOR ACCURACY!!!!!!!!!!! PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ON TO EVERYONE YOU KNOW

@Lioness

Our machine readouts have a slightly different format. We see candidates' names when we make out selections, but on the verification page, see only the Partty ID for the Presidential race, and names for the other two on the ballot. I can't imagine what frail minds permitted that.

My ballot: Obama, Warner, Hartke. The latter is the daughter of ex-Senator Vance Hartke of Indiana. She's running an uphill contest against that Republican wimp Eric Cantor that Chris Matthews made a fool of a month or so ago. Still, Ms Hartke has a tough row to plow in this well gerrymandered district. Warner's a cinch, and I hope and pray that Obama rides his coatails.

As a student of religion, and one who is thoroughly disgusted with the religious right, I must agree that there is no benefit in antagonizing christians in general.

Bill Moyers is a christian, after all, and a great man.

I say this as a quasi-gonzo-buddhist, so it has nothing to do with my faith per se.

BTW, I'm tempted to agree with Garrison Keillor's joke that the problem with baptists is that they don't hold them under water long enough. :-) Not really, just sort of...

Comparison of this final Zogby poll against results:

PA: Zogby Obama +10, result Obama +11
OH: Zogby Obama +2, result Obama +4
VA: Zogby Obama +7. result Obama +6
NV: Zogby Obama +11, result Obama +12
FL: Zogby Obama +1. result Obama +2
MO: Zogby Obama tied, result McCain +~6,000 votes
NC: Zogby McCain +1, result Obama +1
IN: Zogby McCain +5, result Obama +1

Zogby poll was very close on this list of states except for Indiana.