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May 08, 2008
POLL: R2K/DailyKos Texas (5/5-7)
Research 2000/DailyKos.com (D) Texas n=600 McCain 52, Obama 39... McCain 53, Clinton 38 Sen: Cornyn (R-i) 48, Noriega (D) 44...
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May 08, 2008
POLL: Rasmussen Missouri (5/6)
Rasmussen Reports Missouri n=500 McCain 47, Obama 41... McCain 45, Clinton 43...
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May 08, 2008
POLL: Daily Tracking (Through 5/7)
Gallup Daily National Obama 47, Clinton 46 Obama 46, McCain 45... Clinton 47, McCain 45 Rasmussen Reports National Obama 47, Clinton 43 Obama 46, McCain 44... Clinton 48, McCain 43 Favorable / Unfavorable McCain: 49 / 48 Clinton: 46 /...
[ More]
May 08, 2008
Poblano's Model
My latest NationalJournal.com column, about the remarkable success of the non-poll statistical model created by Poblano of FiveThirtyEight.com, is now online....
[ More]
May 07, 2008
"Outliers" from the IN/PA and Beyond
[I fell behind a bit on his feature over the last hectic week, so some of these are a little stale]. Kathy Frankovic considers the reasons for conflicting national numbers from CBS/NYT and Gallup earlier this week (see also my...
[ More]
May 07, 2008
POLL: Rasmussen Wisconsin (5/5)
Rasmussen Reports Wisconsin McCain 47, Obama 43... McCain 47, Clinton 43...
[ More]
May 07, 2008
POLL: Daily Tracking (Through 5/6)
Gallup Poll National Obama 47, Clinton 46 Obama 46, McCain 45... Clinton 46, McCain 45 Also "Obama's Support Similar to Kerry's in 2004" "Obama Beats McCain Among Jewish Voters" Rasmussen Reports National Obama 47, Clinton 43 Obama 45, McCain 44......
[ More]
May 07, 2008
NC-IN Follow-Up Links
Here are links to exit poll and related analysis from: ABC News Associated Press CBS News CNN Wall Street Journal Washington Post Other pollster related news: Brian Schaffner plots pollster performance SurveyUSA report cards for NC and IN PPP takes...
[ More]
May 06, 2008
Live Blogging North Carolina and Indiana Election Night
I will be live-blogging here tonight on what we might learn -- and what we might do better to ignore -- from the exit poll in Indiana and North Carolina. More details to follow, but please feel free to use...
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May 06, 2008
NC-IN Predictions Roundup
A typically busy election day here, but I want to quickly link to some interesting vote predictions popping up in the blogosphere: Tom Holbrook, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, has used our final standard trend...
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May 06, 2008
NC and IN Final Sensitivity Comparison
Both standard and sensitive estimators are agreed in North Carolina. In Indiana there is a little bit of room between them, but not enough to affect conclusions about the probable outcome (if the polls are right!) The gyrations the...
[ More]
May 06, 2008
Vote by Race in NC and IN
I thought it might be helpful, given our focus on the racial composition in the electorates for Indiana and especially North Carolina, to post a summary of results by race in each state. Fortunately, just about all of the pollsters...
[ More]
May 06, 2008
NC and IN Final Pollster Comparisons
With the last of the preelection polls in, we can now do our "apples to apples" comparison. Follow each pollster in the charts to see who's high, who's low and who has jumped around. Note this is for the...
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May 06, 2008
POLL: Rasmussen Kentucky (5/5)
Rasmussen Reports Kentucky n=800 Clinton 56, Obama 31...
[ More]
May 06, 2008
POLL: SurveyUSA Kentucky (5/3-5)
SurveyUSA Kentucky n=595 Clinton 62, Obama 28...
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May 06, 2008
POLL: Daily Tracking (Through 5/5)
Gallup Poll National Obama 48, Clinton 46 McCain 46, Obama 45... Clinton 46, McCain 45 Also "Most Democrats Not Eager for Either Candidate to Drop Out" - Video "Clinton Supporters Believe Wright Is Relevant to Campaign" Rasmussen Reports Obama 47,...
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May 06, 2008
Final Polls: About The Undecided?
Well, for the umpteenth time this primary season, we wake up to wide variation on the final polls for the day's primaries. Today we have polls showing Barack Obama leading Hillary Clinton by anywhere from 4 to 14 points in...
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May 06, 2008
Response to Doug Usher
Humphrey Taylor has served as chairman of The Harris Poll, a service of Harris Interactive, since 1994. Thanks to Doug Usher for his contribution to the debate on the panel-based online methodology for political polling. I am glad to see...
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May 06, 2008
POLL: InsiderAdvantage NC (5/5; Final)
InsiderAdvantage North Carolina Obama 47, Clinton 43...
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May 06, 2008
What's Up With The National Polls?
Last week, Democratic pollster Mark Mellman used his column in The Hill to argue that one could use "same-poll to same-poll comparisons" to argue that the controversy over Barack Obama's "bitter" comments had either no impact or a great deal...
[ More]
May 06, 2008
POLL: Zogby IN, NC (5/4-5; Final)
Zogby Indiana Obama 45, Clinton 43 North Carolina Obama 51, Clinton 37...
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May 05, 2008
POLL: AP-Ipsos National (4/30-5/4)
AP-Ipsos National 755 RV, 514 RV Dems/Dem-Leaners Clinton 47, Obama 40 Obama 46, McCain 42... Clinton 47, McCain 42...
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