November 20, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
11/17-19/09; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox: Health Care, Fort Hood, Swine flu)
National
Based on what you know about the health care reform legislation being
considered right now, do you favor or oppose the plan?
35% Favor, 51% Oppose (chart)
Do you think abortion procedures should or should not be covered by private
insurance plans?
37% Should, 51% Should not
Do you favor or oppose the amendment to the health care reform bill that
passed the U.S. House of Representatives last week that prevents any federal
funds from being used for abortions?
50% Favor, 38% Oppose
If an individual receives financial assistance from the federal government
to purchase private health insurance, do you think they should or should not be
able to buy an insurance plan that covers abortion procedures?
39% Should, 52% Should not
On the issue of abortion, would you say you are more pro-life or more pro-choice?
47% Pro-life, 44% Pro-choice
How do you think the recent shooting incident at the Army installation in
Fort Hood, Texas where 13 people were killed is most accurately described -- as
an act of terrorism or as a killing spree?
44% Act of terrorism, 49% Killing spree
Do you think it is more likely that alleged Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan
was a Muslim extremist protesting U.S. foreign policy or that he was just
someone who went nuts and shot at his co-workers?
38% Protesting U.S. foreign policy, 45% Just went nuts
There have been reports that some people who knew Nidal Hasan could see
there was something wrong but did nothing. Do you think they kept silent mainly
because they didn't want to be accused of being prejudice against his religion
or mainly because they did not think he was really that dangerous?
46% Didn't want to be seen as prejudiced, 38% Didn't think of him as dangerous
Do you think the medical testing of the swine flu vaccine was done as
quickly as possible while still making sure the vaccine is safe, or was the
testing for the vaccine done too quickly so that people can't be sure it is
safe?
45% Done quickly while being safe, 40% Too quickly, can't be sure it's safe
By Emily Swanson on November 20, 2009 4:43 PM
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November 20, 2009
By Margie Omero
Right now the health care debate has shifted--perhaps temporarily--from the public option to abortion and mammograms. This makes it a good moment to remember the importance of women voters to national support for health care reform.
Women are disproportionately affected by poor health care coverage
Because of gender differences in work patterns, women are less likely to have employee coverage, and more likely to have less efficient individual coverage. Compared to men, women report being more likely to delay needed care, and more likely to spend over 10% of their income on health care.
The White House, driven by the First Lady, has made some effort to bring women into the health care debate. But until just recently, those efforts seemed less successful, at least in generating interest.
Women, particularly younger women, are paying less attention to the debate
Thanks to the kind folks at Pew, we were able to get crosstabs from recent surveys about attention paid to various issues in the news. They found women to be paying less attention to the health care debate than men up until their October survey.
Examining gender by age, younger women were substantially less likely to be following the debate. In early September, this group was largely divided between following the debate closely (53%) and not closely (48%). At least two-thirds of other gender/age groupings were following the debate closely. In the most recent survey, younger women have begun to catch up with younger men in extent of interest.
Women, particularly younger women, are more supportive of health care reform
While they might not be paying as close attention, polls suggest younger women make up a strong base of support for reform. Gallup has shown more women would advise their Member of Congress to support health care reform, while men would advise their representative to vote against it.
There's actually quite a large difference between older and younger women on this, but little age difference among men. Younger women are one of the demographic groups most likely to advise their representative to vote for health care reform. Older women, however, are evenly divided.
Open Republican hostility to women's health care provides a real opportunity to gain support for reform
Supporters of health care reform should talk to younger women about more than Stupak and abortion. There is plenty of material with which to draw a contrast with reform opponents. See, for example, Senator Kyl's (R-AZ) sneering hostility to maternity care, or Representative Session's (R-TX) likening coverage for woman-specific treatments to coverage for smokers. The very same Senator Enzi (R-WY) who introduced legislation to allow companies to deny coverage of mammograms is now incorrectly using the recent mammogram recommendations as an attack on health care reform. Left unchecked, insurance companies are calling rape and domestic violence pre-existing conditions.
Right now supporters have a good opportunity to make women's health care central to the national conversation. Supporters should remind women which party has been consistently hostile to women's health, and which has not. Politicization of mammograms, and perhaps even the revival of Sarah Palin, threaten to cede some ground among women voters. But women, especially younger women, are ready for our message on reform.
UPDATE: Thanks to the person who alerted me to this 2006 vote, in which ten Senate Republicans voted against coverage to victims of domestic violence. The link also has some other important facts about women and health care reform, such as a C-section frequently being considered a pre-existing condition.
By Margie Omero on November 20, 2009 1:34 PM
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November 20, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Rasmussen
11/17/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)
California
2010 Senate (trends)
Boxer 46%, Fiorina 37% (chart)
Boxer 46%, DeVore 36%
Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Boxer: 51 / 41 (chart)
Chuck DeVore: 31 / 25
Carly Fiorina: 40 / 29
By Emily Swanson on November 20, 2009 12:03 PM
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November 20, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09; 1,066 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)
National
Obama Job Approval (previously released)
49% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
Mike Huckabee: 36 / 37 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 40 / 49 (chart)
Ron Paul: 23 / 34
Mitt Romney: 30 / 39 (chart)
2012 President
Obama 49%, Huckabee 44%
Obama 51%, Palin 43%
Obama 46%, Paul 38%
Obama 48%, Romney 43%
By Emily Swanson on November 20, 2009 11:26 AM
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November 20, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Marist
11/12, 11/16-17/09; 805 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
365 Democrats, 5.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist release)
New York
2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
72% Cuomo, 21% Paterson (chart)
2010 Governor: General Election
69% Cuomo, 24% Lazio (chart)
44% Paterson, 44% Lazio (chart)
Do you want David Paterson to run for governor in 2010, or not?
30% Yes, 63% No
Job Approval / Disapproval
20% Excellent/Good, 76% Fair/Poor (chart)
By Emily Swanson on November 20, 2009 11:20 AM
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November 20, 2009
By Emily Swanson
DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
11/16-19/09; 2,400 adults, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)
National
Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 55 / 39 (chart)
Nancy Pelosi: 40 / 51
Harry Reid: 32 / 58
Mitch McConnell: 14 / 68
John Boehner: 13 / 65
Democratic Party: 44 / 50
Republican Party: 23 / 67
State of the Country
41% Right Direction, 55% Wrong Track (chart)
By Emily Swanson on November 20, 2009 11:11 AM
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November 20, 2009
By Emily Swanson
CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/143-15/09; 1,014 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN story)
National
Which of the following comes closer to your view of the budget deficit -- the government should run a deficit if necessary when the country is in a recession and is at war, or the government should balance the budget even when the country is in a recession and is at war?
30% Run a deficit, 67% Balance the budget
How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today -- as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?
18% Very/Somewhat Good, 82% Very/Somewhat Poor
Do you think the Democrats or the Republicans are more responsible for the country's current economic problems?
27% Democrats, 38% Republicans, 27% Both
Do you think Barack Obama's policies have improved economic conditions, worsened economic conditions, or had no effect on economic conditions in the country?
36% Improved, 28% Worsened, 35% No effect
By Emily Swanson on November 20, 2009 10:50 AM
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November 20, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Rasmussen
11/18/09; 570 likely Republican primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)
Arizona
2010 Senate: Republican Primary
McCain 45%, Heyworth 43%, Simcox 4%
Favorable / Unfavorable (among Republicans)
John McCain: 74 / 24
J.D. Heyworth: 67 / 16
Chris Simcox: 27 / 26
By Emily Swanson on November 20, 2009 10:21 AM
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November 20, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Rasmussen
11/17/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen: Governor, Senate)
New York
Job approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 58 / 41 (chart)
Gov. Paterson: 38 / 59 (chart)
2010 Senate
Gillibrand 45%, Pataki 42% (chart)
2010 Governor
41% Lazio, 37% Paterson (chart)
57% Giuliani, 30% Paterson (chart)
57% Cuomo, 29% Lazio (chart)
49% Cuomo, 46% Giuliani (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
George Pataki: 51 / 44
Kirsten Gillibrand: 40 / 37 (chart)
David Paterson: 36 / 59 (chart)
Rudy Giuliani: 58 / 38
Rick Lazio: 36 / 44
Andrew Cuomo: 56 / 34
Terrorist suspects linked to the 9/11 attacks will now be tried in a New York City civilian court rather than in a military tribunal. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to try these terrorist suspects in a New York City civilian court?
35% Agree, 55% Disagree
By Emily Swanson on November 20, 2009 9:34 AM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09; 763 registered voters, 3.6^ margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)
Missouri
Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Nixon: 42 / 25 (chart)
Sen. Bond: 41 / 34 (chart)
Sen. McCaskill: 42 / 45 (chart)
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 5:48 PM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
11/17-18/09; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox: story, results; Palin: results, results)
National
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 46 (chart)
Dems: 85 / 9 (chart)
Reps: 15 / 80 (chart)
inds: 34 / 51 (chart)
Congressional Job Approval
26% Approve, 63% Disapprove (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 42 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 47 / 42 (chart)
Mike Huckabee: 45 / 23 (chart)
Mitt Romney: 38 / 27 (chart)
Newt Gingrich: 38 / 38
Oprah Winfrey: 61 / 26
Nancy Pelosi: 28 / 50
Do you think Sarah Palin has been treated fairly or unfairly by the press?
31% Fairly, 61% Unfairly
Party ID
38% Democrat, 36% Republican, 20% independent (chart)
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 5:15 PM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Marist
11/12, 11/16-17/09; 805 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
216 Republicans, 7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist release)
New York
2010 Senate: Republican Primary (trends)
71% Giuliani, 24% Pataki
2010 Senate: General Election
54% Giuliani, 40% Gillibrand (chart)
2010 Governor: Republican Primary (trends)
84% Giuliani, 13% Lazio
2010 Governor: General Election
60% Giuliani, 35% Paterson (chart)
53% Cuomo, 43% Giuliani (chart)
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 4:43 PM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
11/16-18/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Republican primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)
Florida
Favorable / Unfavorable
Kendrick Meek: 23 / 9
Charlie Crist: 59 / 32 (chart)
Marco Rubio: 21 / 22
Alex Sink: 25 / 9
Bill McCollum: 39 / 24
Paula Dockery: 9 / 4
Barack Obama: 51 / 45 (chart)
2010 Senate: Republican Primary
Crist 47%, Rubio 37% (chart)
2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
Crist (R) 50%, Meek (D) 33% (chart)
Meek (D) 38%, Rubio (R) 30% (chart)
Crist (i) 32%, Meek (D) 31%, Rubio (R) 27%
Crist (D) 45%, Rubio (R) 34%
2010 Governor: Republican Primary (trends)
McCollum 45%, Dockery 9%
2010 Governor: General Election (trends)
McCollum (R) 35%, Sink (D) 33% (chart)
Dink (D) 35%, Dockery (D) 13%
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 4:27 PM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Pew Research Center
11/13-16/09; 1,004 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)
National
Most Closely Followed Story
27% Debate over health care reform
21% The investigation into the shootings at Fort Hood Army post in Texas
19% Reports about swine flu and the vaccine
15% Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy
5% The debate over whether to send more troops into Afghanistan
2% President Obama's trip to Asia
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 1:44 PM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09;'1,066 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)
National
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 46 (chart)
Dems: 83 / 12 (chart)
Reps: 10 / 87 (chart)
Inds: 47 / 46 (chart)
Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
40% Support, 52% Oppose (chart)
Do you think that Barack Obama legitimately won the Presidential election last year, or do you think that ACORN stole it for him?
62% Legitimately won the election, 26% ACORN stole it
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 12:58 PM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Zogby / League of American Voters*
11/16-17/09; 501 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Zogby release)
*The League of American Voters is a conservative non-profit opposed to health care reform legislation
Arkansas
Favorable / Unfavorable
Blanche Lincoln: 52 / 38
Mark Pryor: 62 / 24
Gilbert Baker: 22 / 7
Kim Hendren: 24 / 9
2010 Senate
41% Lincoln, 39% Baker
45% Lincoln, 29% Hendren
Do you support or oppose the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama and now making its way through Congress?
29% Support, 64% Oppose
If you knew that Senator Blanche Lincoln supported the proposed healthcare bill, does that make you more or less likely to vote for her in the upcoming Senate election, or does it make no difference to your decision?
18% More likely to support, 48% More likely to oppose, 31% No difference
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 12:03 PM
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November 19, 2009
By Mark Blumenthal
With apologies to Broadcast News, "I say it here (and here)...":
So my advice to President Obama . . . Challenge Congress to pass a reform bill that requires all members to obtain their health insurance the same way as those without employer-provided health insurance -- through the newly created health care exchanges, rather than the Federal Employee Health Benefit Plan. The two systems are conceptually similar -- similar enough that the pledge could help sell voters on the benefits of the exchange itself.
"...it comes out there:"
[O]ne of the decisions Harry Reid had to make in reconciling the HELP Committee and Finance Committee was whether or not to require Members of Congress to purchase their insurance the same way everyone else does. The Finance Committee would have required all Members of Congress to give up their Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan and buy insurance through the new exchanges instead, while the HELP bill would allow them to keep their exclusive health care plans.
The final bill's out, and Reid chose to include the Finance Committee language. Straight form the bill text:
(d) MEMBERS OF CONGRESS IN THE EXCHANGE.
(i) REQUIREMENT. Notwithstanding any other provision of law, after the effective date of this subtitle, the only health plans that the Federal Government may make available to Members of Congress and congressional staff with respect to their service as a Member of Congress or congressional staff shall be health plans that are
(I) created under this Act (or an amendment made by this Act); or
(II) offered through an Exchange established under this Act (or an amendment made by this Act).
Heh.
By Mark Blumenthal on November 19, 2009 11:53 AM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
SurveyUSA
11/18/09; 800 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)
California
New guidelines on breast cancer screening recommend women begin to be screened at age 50, instead of age 40, which was the previous recommendation. Do you think the new guidelines are a good idea?
18% Good idea, 76% Bad idea
Do you think the new recommendations are based more on medicine? Or more on money?
12% Medicine, 77% Money
Among women 35+ who have had mammograms:
Will this affect how often you get future mammograms?
33% Yes, 65% No
Among women 35+ who have not had mammograms:
Will this affect when you go for your first mammogram?
41% Yes, 48% No
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 11:17 AM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Pew Research Center
11/12-15/09; 1,003 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)
National
As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in Congress?
42% Favor, 39% Oppose
Among those who oppose: As I read some reasons people have given for opposing health care reform, please tell me if each one is a major reason, a minor reason, or not a reason why you oppose the health care reform proposals being discussed in Congress.
Too much government involvement in health care:
85% Major reason, 7% Minor reason, 7% Not a reason
Your own health care may suffer:
70% Major reason, 16% Minor reason, 13% Not a reason
Health care reform is too expensive for the country:
78% Major reason, 13% Minor reason, 8% Not a reason
Government money might pay for abortions:
56% Major reason, 21% Minor reason, 22% Not a reason
The plan might cover illegal immigrants:
67% Major reason, 20% Minor reason, 14% Not a reason
Among those who oppose:
38% Too much government involvement in health care
27% Health care reform is too expensive for the country
14% Your own health care may suffer
8% Government money might pay for abortions
7% The plan might cover illegal immigrants
Asked of all: If the government health care reform plan guarantees certain medical benefits for all Americans, do you think that abortion should or should not be included as one of those benefits?
28% Should be included, 55% Should not be included
Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose making it more DIFFICULT for a woman to get an abortion?
40% Favor, 43% Oppose
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 10:46 AM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/13-15/09; ~500 adults (half samples), 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)
National
As you may know, a soldier named Nidal Hasan recently shot and killed thirteen people in Ft. Hood Texas. Based on what you know about this matter, do you consider Hasan's actions to be an act of terrorism, or do you consider this to be an act of murder with no direct connection to terrorism?
45% Terrorism, 47% Murder
Based on what you know about this matter, do you think federal law enforcement agencies or the U.S. military should have been able to prevent this from happening, or don't you think so?
64% Should have been able to prevent, 31% Don't think so
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 10:26 AM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Rasmussen
11/17/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)
California
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 / 43 (chart)
Gov. Schwarzenegger: 29 / 69 (chart)
2010 Governor (trends)
Whitman (R) 41%, Brown (D) 41%
Brown (D) 43%, Poizner (R) 32%
Brown (D) 42%, Campbell (R) 33%
Favorable / Unfavorable
Meg Whitman: 47 / 27
Jerry Brown: 48 / 41
Steve Poizner: 36 / 26
Tom Campbell: 40 / 20
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 9:49 AM
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November 19, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Quinnipiac
11/9-16/09; 2,518 registered voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)
National
Obama Approval on Health Care
41% Approve, 53% Disapprove (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 50 / 38 (chart)
Democratic Party: 39 / 46
Republican Party: 28 / 53
State of the Country
30% Satisfied, 69% Dissatisfied (chart)
Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Barack Obama:
46% I like Barack Obama as a person and I also like most of his policies
28% I like Barack Obama as a person but I don't like most of his policies
1% I don't like Barack Obama as a person but I DO like most of his policies
20% I don't like Barack Obama as a person and I also don't like most of his policies?
Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
45% Obama, 36% Republicans in Congress
Do you approve or disapprove of this health care reform plan? [the health care reform plan that was recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives]
35% Approve, 51% Disapprove (chart)
Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?
57% Support, 35% Oppose
There is a proposal that would allow states to opt out of a public option - that is it would be left up to each state to decide whether or not to give people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad idea?
43% Good idea, 49% Bad idea
Some have suggested that the creation of a public option should only be triggered if the private market does not meet benchmarks to extend coverage to all Americans. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?
38% good idea, 47% Bad idea
Do you agree or disagree with the following: Congress should approve a health care overhaul plan even if only Democrats support it.
36% Agree, 60% Disagree
Do you think the Republicans in Congress are, or are not, making a good faith effort to cooperate with Obama and the Democrats on health care reform?
29% Making effort, 59% Not making effort
Do you think Obama and the Democrats in Congress are, or are not, making a good faith effort to cooperate with the Republicans on health care reform?
43% Making effort, 46% Not making effort
By Emily Swanson on November 19, 2009 9:17 AM
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November 18, 2009
By Mark Blumenthal
Gary Langer considers divergent results on terror trials.
Greg Sargent notes that NYC terror trial opposition tends to be old, white and Republican.
David Hill gives Obama's stock a "sell" rating.
Mark Mellman says voters oppose Congress making abortion decision.
John Petrocik charts Obama job approval for Resurgent Republic.
Alan Reifman calculates opposition to health care reform from the Left.
John Sides flags surprising opposition to the Opt-Out provision for the Public Option.
Nathaniel Persily reviews new survey data on "terror, torture and death."
Politico's Alex Isenstadt reports on reactions from Democratic party officials to setbacks with independents.
Noam Scheiber responds to Rasmussen and Schoen on deficit politics.
Nate Silver, Tom Schaller and Jim Geraghty ponder whether Sarah Palin will run for president.
James Vega thinks Obama's new Afghan strategy is not a "betrayal" of the Democratic base.
Chris Bowers finds the demographics of Democrats look more progressive than Blue Dog.
Tom Schaller handicaps the 2010 races for governor.
Teagan Goddard recaps coverage of his CQ/Roll Call polling panel.
The Pew Internet & American Life Project reports on teens and distracted driving.
Mike Mokrzycki assesses two surveys looking at who will pay for news.
Melissa DeCesare shares data on the power of Mom.
Doug Hoffman "Un-Concedes."
How will Frank Luntz top this (via Eldon)?
By Mark Blumenthal on November 18, 2009 3:35 PM
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November 18, 2009
By Emily Swanson
St. Cloud State University
10/26-11/4/09; 550 adults, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(St. Cloud State release)
Minnesota
Job Rating
Gov. Pawlenty: 49% Excellent/Good, 48% Only Fair/Poor (chart)
Pres. Obama: 50% Excellent/Good, 47% Only Fair/Poor (chart)
If the 2012 presidential election was held today with Barack Obama
being the Democratic Candidate and Tim Pawlenty being the Republican
Candidate, would you vote for Obama or Pawlenty?
49% Obama, 40% Pawlenty
By Emily Swanson on November 18, 2009 2:45 PM
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November 18, 2009
By Mark Blumenthal
Joe Klein posted an item to Time's Swampland blog this morning that is usually the sort of thing I link to in our 'Outliers' feature, but his argument was provocative enough to deserve more emphasis. Fair use and common courtesy prevent me from reproducing the whole thing --it's short and worth reading in full -- but the gist is that Klein noted two results from yesterday's CNN poll, offered the reasonable hypothesis that differently worded questions might have produced different results and offered this conclusion:
The point is, polling on issues is next to useless--especially on issues as emotionally complicated as wars and as technically complicated as health care reform. The only safe conclusion from these particular polls is this: the public has mixed feelings on Afghanistan and health care reform. Brilliant! I have mixed feelings, too. But that's not the way you'll see these played: the headlines will be: Public Opposes Health bill. Public Opposes War.
And the headlines will be ginormous. This is one of my biggest gripes with journalism as it is practiced, particularly on cable news: Polling numbers are "facts." They can be cited with absolute authority, sort of. And so they are given credence beyond all proportion to their actual importance or relevance. But they are not very truthy facts. The are imperfect impressions.
Thoughts anyone?
[Correction: I added "next to" back to the headline. Thanks to Mark L for catching my goof and apologies for the omission].
By Mark Blumenthal on November 18, 2009 12:42 PM
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November 18, 2009
By Emily Swanson
CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/13-15/09; 310 Democrats, 4.5% margin of errpr
281 Republicans, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)
National
Democrats: If you had to choose, would you rather see the Democratic party in your area nominate candidates who don't agree with you on some major issues but have a good chance of beating the Republican candidate, or would you rather see the Democratic party nominate candidates who agree with you on all major issues but have a poor chance of beating the Republican candidate?
Republicans: If you had to choose, would you rather see the Republican party in your area nominate candidates who don't agree with you on some major issues but have a good chance of beating the Democratic candidate, or would you rather see the Republican party nominate candidates who agree with you on all major issues but have a poor chance of beating the
Democratic candidate?
Democrats:
58% Prefer candidates who can beat the other party
38% Prefer candidates who agree with you on issues
Republicans:
43% Prefer candidates who can beat the other party
51% Prefer candidates who agree with you on issues
By Emily Swanson on November 18, 2009 11:54 AM
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November 18, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09; 763 registered voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)
National
Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 43 / 52 (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
Roy Blunt: 30 / 38
Robin Carnahan: 40 / 36
Chuck Purgason: 7 / 14
2010 Senate (trends)
43% Carnahan, 42% Blunt (chart)
42% Carnahan, 35% Purgason
2010 Senate: Republican Primary
53% Blunt, 16% Purgason
By Emily Swanson on November 18, 2009 11:25 AM
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November 18, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Pew Research Center
11/12-15/09; 1,003 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)
National
How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise of Islamic extremism around the WORLD these days?
49% Very concerned
29% Somewhat concerned
12% Not too concerned
8% Not at all concerned
How concerned, if at all, are you about the possible rise of Islamic extremism IN THE U.S.?
52% Very concerned
27% Somewhat concerned
11% Not too concerned
7% Not at all concerned
By Emily Swanson on November 18, 2009 11:19 AM
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November 18, 2009
By Emily Swanson
ABC News / Washington POst
11/12-15/09; 1,001 adults, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ABC: story, results; Post: story, graphics)
National
Who do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Afghanisan - Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
46% Obama, 41% Republicans
Do you think Obama's policies are making the United States safer from terrorism, less safe, or are they not making much difference in that?
27% Safer, 22% Less safe, 49% Not much difference
On another subject, all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus
the benefits to the United States, do you think the war in Afghanistan has been worth
fighting, or not?
44% Worth fighting, 52% Not worth fighting
If Obama decides to send more U.S. forces to Afghanistan, would you prefer that he send a smaller number of U.S. forces mainly to train the Afghan military; or that he send a larger number of U.S. forces to fight al Qaeda and the Taliban as well as to train the Afghan military?
45% Smaller number, 46% Larger number
In deciding U.S. policy in Afghanistan do you think Obama is giving U.S. military leaders too much influence, too little influence, or about the right amount?
9% Too much, 35% Too little, 51% Right amount
What do you think would do more to increase the risk of a terrorist attack occurring here in the United States - withdrawing from Afghanistan, or remaining in Afghanistan - or is the risk of terrorism about the same either way?
23% Withdrawing, 12% Remaining, 64% Same either way
By Emily Swanson on November 18, 2009 11:14 AM
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November 18, 2009
By Emily Swanson
Gallup
11/5-8/09; 1,008 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)
National
Regardless of whether you favor or oppose health care legislation, what are some of the concerns you would have if a new healthcare measure is passed into law? [OPEN-ENDED]
|
Among All Adults |
Among those who favor legislation |
Among those who oppose legislation |
| Costs |
24 |
22 |
25 |
| Government-run healthcare/Bureaucracy/Government take-over/Socialized medicine |
18 |
9 |
28 |
| Making sure everyone is covered/Has access |
12 |
19 |
4 |
| Effect on quality of care |
7 |
6 |
8 |
| Government plan/public option |
6 |
6 |
7 |
| Ability to get needed treatments/Rationing care/Wait times for care |
5 |
6 |
4 |
| Unclear how plan would work |
5 |
4 |
6 |
| Effect on senior citizens/Medicare |
4 |
3 |
5 |
| Increased taxes |
3 |
1 |
5 |
| Would provide coverage to illegal immigrants |
3 |
2 |
4 |
| Being able to see current doctors |
2 |
2 |
3 |
| Forcing people to have insurance/Fines for not having |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| How it will be paid for |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| Being able to keep current plan, benefits |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| Would pay for abortions |
2 |
1 |
3 |
| Coverage for prescriptions |
1 |
2 |
1 |
By Emily Swanson on November 18, 2009 10:49 AM
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