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1994 All Over Again? 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Stanley Greenberg advises Democrats how to avoid a repeat of 1994, Matt Continetti responds.

Nate Silver says there are major differences between 2010 and 1994 and follows up with a comparison chart.

Andrew Kohut says 1994 comparisons are premature.

Ryan McClafferty discusses a turn in public opinion on Congress.

Harry Enten sees big trouble brewing for Democrats in 2010.

Andrew Romano calls out "absurdly premature" 2012 electoral college handicapping.

Jon Cohen reviews how the specific items highlighted in Obama's health reform proposal stack up in the polls.

Frank Newport outlines how he would brief the health care summit on public opinion.

Jonathan Chait says public opinion on taxes isn't a sign of ignorance.

Tom Jensen sees Obama's approval decline mostly among white voters.

National Journal's political insiders see
the Democrats benefiting from the passage of a jobs bill.

Matt Towery concedes a conflict of interest; more here.

Mark Penn donates his Clinton polls to GWU. (Note: Penn does not specify what, exactly, he intends to donate. Will these be just memos and slide presentations or will it include complete filled-in questionnaires and data files? -- Mark Blumenthal.)

The Marist Poll releases
a theme song.

 

Comments
GARY WAGNER:

I think advisors like Stanley Greenburg are completely insane to state that passing the current senate version of the healthcare plan would raise the approval level of Obama and the Democrats in congress. That might bring a few voters from the far left back into the hold but it would be offset by the further erosion of independents and right leaning democrats. Passing this bill will also throw even more fuel on the fire of anti-incumbency and democrats will suffer almost all of that vote in November.

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Farleftandproud:

There was a recent debate on MSNBC about how Ronald Reagan would fit in with today's GOP. He picked a semi- pro choice woman supreme court justice, he had to give some modest tax raises as Governor and as President he worked with Democrats to sign some pretty good education bills. I think this summit with the GOP is not going to be productive. The GOP members in the House have probably been forced by Boehner, Cantor and others, as Nancy Reagan talked about "JUST SAY NO". I think that is the legacy a Reagan has left behind.

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Farleftandproud:

There are some reasons why Democrats in the house and senate could be in trouble this year like 1994, but I think the best way the Democrats can blow it is to let the Blue Dogs in the Senate and House continue to fight reform, and continue to coddle people like Stupak and Ben Nelson. Tomorrow can be the GOP's last chance and attempt to get a health care plan passed with 60 votes. You can subtract Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman and you got 57. Another one is Blanche Lincoln; on a liberal kos poll someone went as far to say, when Huckabee polled 30 points ahead of her last summer, "we wouldn't even notice it if Blanche Lincoln wasn't in the senate".

You go back to the Senate's version with a little tort reform, and try to get Snowe, Collins, and Lincoln and Lieberman, and if this can't work, than go to reconciliation.

If a good health care plan is passed, I think Democrats will lose some seats next November but it won't be like 1994. Dems could lose AR, IN, ND and DE, and possibly Harry Reid, but Castle is not a Conservative. In the House. I would predict the most likely Democrats to lose are the more conservative ones in many Southern states who have totally discouraged their Democratic base. Some of them may decide to become Republicans, just because they don't want to be from the same party as Barack Obama.

Dems have the advantage this time around of more registered Dems to Republicans; 1994 we were coming off the years of Reagan where we had a popular Republican president, as well as more moderates in the northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Bush 1 lost as a result of Ross Perot, so Clinton didn't win the mandate Obama did, and Obama replaced a president with 35 percent approval in his 2nd term.

There are clear differences today and it is in the Democrats hands to bring the party together. I was pleased at the Jobs bill and how we got the two Maine Senators, Scott Brown, Voinavich and even very Conservative Missouri senator Kit Bond. I know the last two I mentioned are retiring, so they probably are doing what is right instead of winning political points. As Obama keeps saying, "winning political points in washington is sometimes a better strategy for the short-term than doing what is in the best interest for their states".

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