Pollster.com

August 12, 2007 - August 18, 2007

 

POLL: Rasmussen Florida Primary


A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of likely voters in Florida (conducted 8/13) finds:

  • Among 724 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (43% to 24%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 11%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • Among 689 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (30% to 17%) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney trails at 15%, Sen. John McCain at 7%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 5%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

View all Florida Primary poll data at Pollster.com:

AFLTopDems190.png AFLTopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans


POLL: Rasmussen Biden, Clinton, Michigan, Arkansas


New Rasmussen Reports automated surveys find:

  • Among 1,200 likely voters nationwide, Sen. Joe Biden trails former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (50% to 34%) and runs even with former Sen. Fred Thompson (both at 39%) in nationwide general election match-ups (conducted 8/10 through 8/12).
  • Among 800 likely voters nationwide, Sen. Hillary Clinton trails Giuliani (47% to 40%) and edges out former Sen. Fred Thompson (46% to 43%) in nationwide general election match-ups (conducted 8/13 through 8/14).
  • Among 500 likely voters in Arkansas (conducted 8/14 through 8/15).

    Clinton 55%, Giuliani 37%
    Clinton 55%, Thompson 36%
    Clinton 56%, McCain 33%
    Clinton 60%, Romney 32%
  • Among 500 likely voters in Michigan (conducted 8/14 through 8/15)

    Clinton 49%, Giuliani 40%
    Clinton 50%, Thompson 37%
    Clinton 49%, McCain 36%
    Clinton 49%. Romney 39%


POLL: Research 2000 Nevada Caucus


A new Research 2000 statewide survey of likely caucus voters in Nevada (conducted 8/14 through 8/16 for The Reno Gazette-Journal) finds:

  • Among 400 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt ROmney (at 28%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson and former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (both at 18%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. John McCain trails at 8%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • Among 400 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (33% to 19%) in a statewide caucus; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 15%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 11%, former V.P. Al Gore at 8%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

View all Nevada Caucus poll data at Pollster.com:

ANVTopDems190.png ANVTopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans


POLL: Hart (D)/McLaughlin (R) Iowa Survey


A new Hart Research (D) and McLaughlin & Associates (R) statewide survey of 509 past Democratic caucus attendees or new registrants who say they are likely to attend a Democratic presidential caucus in Iowa (conducted 8/2 through 8/3) and sponsored by One Vote 08 finds former Sen. John Edwards leading Sen. Hillary Clinton (30% to 22%) in a statewide caucus; Sen. Barack Obama trails at 18%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 13%, Sen. Joe Biden at 5%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.


POLL: CBS Dem Primary


Additional results from a recent CBS News national survey (story, results) of 1,214 adults (conducted 8/8 through 8/12) finds:

  • Among 492 likely Democratic primary voters asked to choose among three candidates, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 45%) leads Sen. Barack Obama 25% and former Sen. John Edwards (14%) in a national primary.
  • Among 1072 registered voters from both parties, 29% say Obama has "the right kind of experience to be a good president;" 51% say he does not. 59% say Clinton has the right kind of experience while 35% say she does not.
  • Among registered voters, 62% say Clinton can win the presidential election; 29% say she can not. 46% say Obama can with the presidential election while 39% say he can not.


POLL: Field CA GOP Primary


A new Field Poll statewide survey of 348 likely Republican primary voters in California (conducted 8/3 through 8/12) finds former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 35%) leading former Gov. Mitt Romney (14%), former Sen. Fred Thompson (13%), and Sen. John McCain (9%) in a statewide primary; all other candidates receive less than five percent each.

View all California Primary poll data at Pollster.com:

ACATopDems190.png ACATopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans


POLL: Strategic Vision (R) Florida Primary


A new Strategic Vision (R) statewide survey of 1200 likely voters in Florida (conducted 8/10 through 8/12) finds:

  • Among Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 34%) leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (18%), former Gov. Mitt Romney (10%), and Sen. John McCain (8%) in a statewide primary. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
  • Among Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton (at 40%) leads Sen. Barack Obama (20%), former Sen. John Edwards (16%), and Gov. Bill Richardson (9%) in a statewide primary. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

View all Florida Primary poll data at Pollster.com:

AFLTopDems190.png AFLTopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans


POLL: AP-Ipsos Bush, Congress, Iraq


A new AP-Ipsos national survey (story, results) of 1,003 adults (conducted 8/6 through 8/8) finds:

  • 35% of Americans approve of the job George Bush is doing as president; 62% disapprove.
  • 25% approve of the way Congress is handling its job; 72% disapprove.
  • 39% support the war in Iraq; 58% oppose it.


POLL: EPIC/MRA MI Primary


A new EPIC/MRA statewide survey of likely primary voters in Michigan (conducted 8/8 through 8/13 for The Detroit News and WXYZ-TV) finds:

  • Among 400 Republicans, former Sen. Fred Thompson edges out former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (22% to 19%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 16%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 15%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 12%. Without Thompson or Gingrich, Giuliani leads both McCain and Romney (30% to 21%).
  • Among 400 Democrats, former V.P. Al Gore edges out Sen. Hillary Clinton (36% to 32%) in a statewide primary; Sen. Barack Obama trails at 16%, former Sen. John Edwards at 8%. Without Gore, Clinton leads Obama 45% to 26%.


Vacation Effect?

Topics: 2006 , The 2006 Race

I took my laptop with me on vacation, and in catching up on the news, I came across one of those impossible-not-to-blog items in NBC's First Read:

NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart (D) tells First Read that the revision of the primary calendar -- moving Iowa forward to the first few days in January -- is really the most important political event that has happened in the past few months...Perhaps most significant of all is that no one will know who's up and who's down right before Iowa. No self-respecting polling company, he says, does polling between the 20th and 25th of December. So we very well might have no idea how Iowa will break until after the results are in.

For what it's worth, I took a close look at whether polls suffer from a "pre-Christmas effect" back in December 2005, and found less evidence for it than I had expected.

One thing seems clear though: "Self-respecting" or not, some pollsters will certainly try to measure the ups and downs the Iowa Caucus campaign, and we will be there to track and explain. So much for another vacation in late December!

And speaking of vacation...In the rush to get out of town last week, I neglected to post a note that I would be taking some much needed R&R. Sorry about that. I'll be back next week. See you Monday.


POLL: PPP (D) South Carolina Primary


A new Public Policy Polling (R) automated survey of likely primary voters in South Carolina (conducted 8/13) finds:

  • Among 749 Republicans, former Sen. Fred Thompson edges out former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (22% to 18%) in a statewide primary; former Gov. Mitt Romney runs at 17%, Sen. John McCain at 11%, former Gov. Mike Huckabee at 7%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • Among 437 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton edges out Sen. Barack Obama (36% to 33%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 12%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

View all South Carolina Primary poll data at Pollster.com:

ASCTopDems190.png ASCTopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans


POLL: Quinnipiac National Primary


A new Quinnipiac University national survey of 1,545 registered voters nationwide (conducted 8/7 through 8/13) finds:

  • Among 717 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (36% to 21%) in a national primary; former V.P. Al Gore trails at 15%, former Sen. John Edwards at 9%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • Among 611 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leads former Gov. Mitt Romney (28% to 15%) in a national primary; former Sen. Fred Thompson trails at 12%, Sen. John McCain at 11%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • General election match-ups.

    Clinton 46%, Giuliani 43%
    Obama 42%, Giuliani 42%
    Edwards 43%, Giuliani 42%
    Clinton 47%, McCain 41%
    Obama 43%, McCain 39%
    Edwards 45%, McCain 37%
    Clinton 49%, Thompson 38%
    Obama 46%, Thompson 35%
    Edwards 49%, Thompson 32%


POLL: Rasmussen New Hampshire Survey


A new Rasmussen Reports automated survey of 453 likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire (conducted 8/9) finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama (37% to 22%) in a statewide primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 14%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 9%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

Update: Among 434 likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire, former Gov. Mitt Romney leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (32% to 20%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain and former Sen. Fred Thompson both trail at 11%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.

View all New Hampshire Primary poll data at Pollster.com:

ANHTopDems190.png ANHTopReps190.png
Democrats Republicans


POLL: CBS GOP, Bush, Iraq


A new CBS News national survey (Bush/Iraq story, results; GOP story, results) of 1,214 adults (conducted 8/8 through 8/12) finds:

  • 29% approve of the way George Bush is handling his job as president; 65% disapprove.
  • 29% say the 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is making the situation better, 15% say it's making the situation worse, and 46% say it's having no impact on the situation in Iraq.
  • Among 295 Republican primary voters asked to choose between four candidates, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani runs at 38%, former Sen. Fred Thompson at 18%, former Gov. Mitt Romney at 13%, and Sen. John McCain at 12%.


POLL: Rasmussen Edwards vs, Clinton vs


New Rasmussen Reports automated surveys find:

  • Among 800 likely voters, former Sen. John Edwards edges out former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (46% to 44%) and leads former Sen. Fred Thompson (47% to 41%) in national general election match-ups (conducted 8/8 through 8/9).
  • Among 500 likely voters in Ohio (conducted 8/8 in partnership with FOX Television Stations, Inc)

    Clinton 43%, Giuliani 44%
    Clinton 44%, Thompson 43%
    Clinton 44%, McCain 41%
    Clinton 48%, Romney 36%
  • Among 500 likely voters in Colorado (conducted 8/8 in partnership with FOX Television Stations, Inc)

    Clinton 40%, Giuliani 50%
    Clinton 45%, Thompson 45%
    Clinton 41%, McCain 44%
    Clinton 43%, Romney 44%
  • Among 500 likely voters in New Hampshire (conducted 8/8 in partnership with FOX Television Stations, Inc)

    Clinton 44%, Giuliani 40%
    Clinton 47%, Thompson 36%
    Clinton 45%, McCain 35%
    Clinton 45%, Romney 40%
  • Among 500 likely voters in Florida (conducted 8/9 in partnership with FOX Television Stations, Inc)

    Clinton 49%, Giuliani 44%
    Clinton 53%, Thompson 40%
    Clinton 52%, McCain 38%
    Clinton 57%, Romney 35%


POLL: ARG National Primary


A new American Research Group national survey of likely primary voters nationwide (conducted 8/9 through 8/12) finds:

  • Among 600 Democrats, Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Sen. Barack Obama (36% to 21%) in a national primary; former Sen. John Edwards trails at 16%, Gov. Bill Richardson at 7%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.
  • Among 600 Republicans, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (at 27%) leads former Gov. Mitt Romney and former Sen. Fred Thompson (both at 16%) in a national primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 13%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than 5% each.


POLL: Preston-Osborne Kentucky Gubernatorial


A new Preston-Osborne statewide survey of 600 registered voters, "selected at random from a list of those who have voted in at least three of the past five general elections" in Kentucky (conducted 7/25 through 8/2 for The Lane Report) finds Steve Beshear leading incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (49% to 31%) in a statewide gubernatorial general election match-up; 16% are undecided.

Kentucky Gubernatorial Election Poll Data:

PollsterDatesN PopSteve
Beshear
Ernie
Fletcher*
SurveyUSA8/4-6/07613 LV5837
Preston-Osborne7/25-8/2/07600 LV4931
SurveyUSA7/14-16/07560 LV5936
IA/MO7/8-9/07693 RV4138
Rasmussen5/24-25/07500 LV5135
SurveyUSA5/23-24/07609 LV6234

* = incumbent


 

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