Pollster.com

November 15, 2009 - November 21, 2009

 

US: Health Care, Fort Hood (Fox 11/17-18)


Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
11/17-19/09; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox: Health Care, Fort Hood, Swine flu)

National

Based on what you know about the health care reform legislation being
considered right now, do you favor or oppose the plan?

35% Favor, 51% Oppose (chart)

Do you think abortion procedures should or should not be covered by private
insurance plans?

37% Should, 51% Should not

Do you favor or oppose the amendment to the health care reform bill that
passed the U.S. House of Representatives last week that prevents any federal
funds from being used for abortions?

50% Favor, 38% Oppose

If an individual receives financial assistance from the federal government
to purchase private health insurance, do you think they should or should not be
able to buy an insurance plan that covers abortion procedures?

39% Should, 52% Should not

On the issue of abortion, would you say you are more pro-life or more pro-choice?
47% Pro-life, 44% Pro-choice

How do you think the recent shooting incident at the Army installation in
Fort Hood, Texas where 13 people were killed is most accurately described -- as
an act of terrorism or as a killing spree?

44% Act of terrorism, 49% Killing spree

Do you think it is more likely that alleged Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan
was a Muslim extremist protesting U.S. foreign policy or that he was just
someone who went nuts and shot at his co-workers?

38% Protesting U.S. foreign policy, 45% Just went nuts

There have been reports that some people who knew Nidal Hasan could see
there was something wrong but did nothing. Do you think they kept silent mainly
because they didn't want to be accused of being prejudice against his religion
or mainly because they did not think he was really that dangerous?

46% Didn't want to be seen as prejudiced, 38% Didn't think of him as dangerous

Do you think the medical testing of the swine flu vaccine was done as
quickly as possible while still making sure the vaccine is safe, or was the
testing for the vaccine done too quickly so that people can't be sure it is
safe?

45% Done quickly while being safe, 40% Too quickly, can't be sure it's safe


Omero: Remember the Women (in the HC debate)

Topics: gender , health care , Health Care Reform , Young Voters

Right now the health care debate has shifted--perhaps temporarily--from the public option to abortion and mammograms. This makes it a good moment to remember the importance of women voters to national support for health care reform.

Women are disproportionately affected by poor health care coverage

Because of gender differences in work patterns, women are less likely to have employee coverage, and more likely to have less efficient individual coverage. Compared to men, women report being more likely to delay needed care, and more likely to spend over 10% of their income on health care.

The White House, driven by the First Lady, has made some effort to bring women into the health care debate. But until just recently, those efforts seemed less successful, at least in generating interest.

Women, particularly younger women, are paying less attention to the debate

Thanks to the kind folks at Pew, we were able to get crosstabs from recent surveys about attention paid to various issues in the news. They found women to be paying less attention to the health care debate than men up until their October survey.

women and hc.jpg

Examining gender by age, younger women were substantially less likely to be following the debate. In early September, this group was largely divided between following the debate closely (53%) and not closely (48%). At least two-thirds of other gender/age groupings were following the debate closely. In the most recent survey, younger women have begun to catch up with younger men in extent of interest.

Women, particularly younger women, are more supportive of health care reform

While they might not be paying as close attention, polls suggest younger women make up a strong base of support for reform. Gallup has shown more women would advise their Member of Congress to support health care reform, while men would advise their representative to vote against it.

There's actually quite a large difference between older and younger women on this, but little age difference among men. Younger women are one of the demographic groups most likely to advise their representative to vote for health care reform. Older women, however, are evenly divided.

Open Republican hostility to women's health care provides a real opportunity to gain support for reform

Supporters of health care reform should talk to younger women about more than Stupak and abortion. There is plenty of material with which to draw a contrast with reform opponents. See, for example, Senator Kyl's (R-AZ) sneering hostility to maternity care, or Representative Session's (R-TX) likening coverage for woman-specific treatments to coverage for smokers. The very same Senator Enzi (R-WY) who introduced legislation to allow companies to deny coverage of mammograms is now incorrectly using the recent mammogram recommendations as an attack on health care reform. Left unchecked, insurance companies are calling rape and domestic violence pre-existing conditions.

Right now supporters have a good opportunity to make women's health care central to the national conversation. Supporters should remind women which party has been consistently hostile to women's health, and which has not. Politicization of mammograms, and perhaps even the revival of Sarah Palin, threaten to cede some ground among women voters. But women, especially younger women, are ready for our message on reform.

UPDATE:  Thanks to the person who alerted me to this 2006 vote, in which ten Senate Republicans voted against coverage to victims of domestic violence.  The link also has some other important facts about women and health care reform, such as a C-section frequently being considered a pre-existing condition.


CA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 11/17)


Rasmussen
11/17/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

California

2010 Senate (trends)
Boxer 46%, Fiorina 37% (chart)
Boxer 46%, DeVore 36%

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Boxer: 51 / 41 (chart)
Chuck DeVore: 31 / 25
Carly Fiorina: 40 / 29


US: 2012 Pres (PPP 11/13-15)


Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09; 1,066 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

Obama Job Approval (previously released)
49% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Mike Huckabee: 36 / 37 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 40 / 49 (chart)
Ron Paul: 23 / 34
Mitt Romney: 30 / 39 (chart)

2012 President
Obama 49%, Huckabee 44%
Obama 51%, Palin 43%
Obama 46%, Paul 38%
Obama 48%, Romney 43%


NY: 2010 Gov (Marist 11/12-17)


Marist
11/12, 11/16-17/09; 805 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
365 Democrats, 5.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist release)

New York

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
72% Cuomo, 21% Paterson (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
69% Cuomo, 24% Lazio (chart)
44% Paterson, 44% Lazio (chart)

Do you want David Paterson to run for governor in 2010, or not?
30% Yes, 63% No

Job Approval / Disapproval
20% Excellent/Good, 76% Fair/Poor (chart)


US: National Survey (Kos 11/16-19)


DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
11/16-19/09; 2,400 adults, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

National

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 55 / 39 (chart)
Nancy Pelosi: 40 / 51
Harry Reid: 32 / 58
Mitch McConnell: 14 / 68
John Boehner: 13 / 65
Democratic Party: 44 / 50
Republican Party: 23 / 67

State of the Country
41% Right Direction, 55% Wrong Track (chart)


US: Recession (CNN 11/13-15)


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/143-15/09; 1,014 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN story)

National

Which of the following comes closer to your view of the budget deficit -- the government should run a deficit if necessary when the country is in a recession and is at war, or the government should balance the budget even when the country is in a recession and is at war?
30% Run a deficit, 67% Balance the budget

How would you rate the economic conditions in the country today -- as very good, somewhat good, somewhat poor, or very poor?
18% Very/Somewhat Good, 82% Very/Somewhat Poor

Do you think the Democrats or the Republicans are more responsible for the country's current economic problems?
27% Democrats, 38% Republicans, 27% Both

Do you think Barack Obama's policies have improved economic conditions, worsened economic conditions, or had no effect on economic conditions in the country?
36% Improved, 28% Worsened, 35% No effect


AZ: 2010 Sen Primary (Rasmussen 11/18)


Rasmussen
11/18/09; 570 likely Republican primary voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Arizona

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
McCain 45%, Heyworth 43%, Simcox 4%

Favorable / Unfavorable (among Republicans)
John McCain: 74 / 24
J.D. Heyworth: 67 / 16
Chris Simcox: 27 / 26


NY: 2010 Sen, Gov (Rasmussen 11/17)


Rasmussen
11/17/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen: Governor, Senate)

New York

Job approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 58 / 41 (chart)
Gov. Paterson: 38 / 59 (chart)

2010 Senate
Gillibrand 45%, Pataki 42% (chart)

2010 Governor
41% Lazio, 37% Paterson (chart)
57% Giuliani, 30% Paterson (chart)
57% Cuomo, 29% Lazio (chart)
49% Cuomo, 46% Giuliani (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
George Pataki: 51 / 44
Kirsten Gillibrand: 40 / 37 (chart)
David Paterson: 36 / 59 (chart)
Rudy Giuliani: 58 / 38
Rick Lazio: 36 / 44
Andrew Cuomo: 56 / 34

Terrorist suspects linked to the 9/11 attacks will now be tried in a New York City civilian court rather than in a military tribunal. Do you agree or disagree with the decision to try these terrorist suspects in a New York City civilian court?
35% Agree, 55% Disagree


MO: Approval (PPP 11/13-15)


Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09; 763 registered voters, 3.6^ margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

Missouri

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Nixon: 42 / 25 (chart)
Sen. Bond: 41 / 34 (chart)
Sen. McCaskill: 42 / 45 (chart)


US: National Survey (Fox 11/17-18)


Fox News / Opinion Dynamics
11/17-18/09; 900 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Fox: story, results; Palin: results, results)

National

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 46 / 46 (chart)
Dems: 85 / 9 (chart)
Reps: 15 / 80 (chart)
inds: 34 / 51 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
26% Approve, 63% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 42 (chart)
Sarah Palin: 47 / 42 (chart)
Mike Huckabee: 45 / 23 (chart)
Mitt Romney: 38 / 27 (chart)
Newt Gingrich: 38 / 38
Oprah Winfrey: 61 / 26
Nancy Pelosi: 28 / 50

Do you think Sarah Palin has been treated fairly or unfairly by the press?
31% Fairly, 61% Unfairly

Party ID
38% Democrat, 36% Republican, 20% independent (chart)


NY: 2010 Sen, Gov (Marist 11/12-17)


Marist
11/12, 11/16-17/09; 805 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
216 Republicans, 7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Marist release)

New York

2010 Senate: Republican Primary (trends)
71% Giuliani, 24% Pataki

2010 Senate: General Election
54% Giuliani, 40% Gillibrand (chart)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary (trends)
84% Giuliani, 13% Lazio

2010 Governor: General Election
60% Giuliani, 35% Paterson (chart)
53% Cuomo, 43% Giuliani (chart)


FL: 2010 Sen (Kos 11/16-18)


DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
11/16-18/09; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Republican primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Florida

Favorable / Unfavorable
Kendrick Meek: 23 / 9
Charlie Crist: 59 / 32 (chart)
Marco Rubio: 21 / 22
Alex Sink: 25 / 9
Bill McCollum: 39 / 24
Paula Dockery: 9 / 4
Barack Obama: 51 / 45 (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
Crist 47%, Rubio 37% (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
Crist (R) 50%, Meek (D) 33% (chart)
Meek (D) 38%, Rubio (R) 30% (chart)
Crist (i) 32%, Meek (D) 31%, Rubio (R) 27%
Crist (D) 45%, Rubio (R) 34%

2010 Governor: Republican Primary (trends)
McCollum 45%, Dockery 9%

2010 Governor: General Election (trends)
McCollum (R) 35%, Sink (D) 33% (chart)
Dink (D) 35%, Dockery (D) 13%


US: News Interest (Pew 11/13-16)


Pew Research Center
11/13-16/09; 1,004 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)

National

Most Closely Followed Story
27% Debate over health care reform
21% The investigation into the shootings at Fort Hood Army post in Texas
19% Reports about swine flu and the vaccine
15% Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy
5% The debate over whether to send more troops into Afghanistan
2% President Obama's trip to Asia


US: National Survey (PPP 11/13-15)


Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09;'1,066 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 49 / 46 (chart)
Dems: 83 / 12 (chart)
Reps: 10 / 87 (chart)
Inds: 47 / 46 (chart)

Do you support or oppose President Obama's health care plan, or do you not have an opinion?
40% Support, 52% Oppose (chart)

Do you think that Barack Obama legitimately won the Presidential election last year, or do you think that ACORN stole it for him?
62% Legitimately won the election, 26% ACORN stole it


AR: 2010 Sen (Zogby 11/16-17)


Zogby / League of American Voters*
11/16-17/09; 501 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Zogby release)

*The League of American Voters is a conservative non-profit opposed to health care reform legislation

Arkansas

Favorable / Unfavorable
Blanche Lincoln: 52 / 38
Mark Pryor: 62 / 24
Gilbert Baker: 22 / 7
Kim Hendren: 24 / 9

2010 Senate
41% Lincoln, 39% Baker
45% Lincoln, 29% Hendren

Do you support or oppose the healthcare bill proposed by President Obama and now making its way through Congress?
29% Support, 64% Oppose

If you knew that Senator Blanche Lincoln supported the proposed healthcare bill, does that make you more or less likely to vote for her in the upcoming Senate election, or does it make no difference to your decision?
18% More likely to support, 48% More likely to oppose, 31% No difference


Good for the Goose: Update

Topics: Harry Reid , Health Care Reform , Insurance Exchange

With apologies to Broadcast News, "I say it here (and here)...":

So my advice to President Obama . . . Challenge Congress to pass a reform bill that requires all members to obtain their health insurance the same way as those without employer-provided health insurance -- through the newly created health care exchanges, rather than the Federal Employee Health Benefit Plan. The two systems are conceptually similar -- similar enough that the pledge could help sell voters on the benefits of the exchange itself.

"...it comes out there:"

[O]ne of the decisions Harry Reid had to make in reconciling the HELP Committee and Finance Committee was whether or not to require Members of Congress to purchase their insurance the same way everyone else does. The Finance Committee would have required all Members of Congress to give up their Federal Employees Health Benefits Plan and buy insurance through the new exchanges instead, while the HELP bill would allow them to keep their exclusive health care plans.

The final bill's out, and Reid chose to include the Finance Committee language. Straight form the bill text:

(d) MEMBERS OF CONGRESS IN THE EXCHANGE.

(i) REQUIREMENT. Notwithstanding any other provision of law, after the effective date of this subtitle, the only health plans that the Federal Government may make available to Members of Congress and congressional staff with respect to their service as a Member of Congress or congressional staff shall be health plans that are

(I) created under this Act (or an amendment made by this Act); or

(II) offered through an Exchange established under this Act (or an amendment made by this Act).

Heh.


CA: Mammograms (SurveyUSA 11/18)


SurveyUSA
11/18/09; 800 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

California

New guidelines on breast cancer screening recommend women begin to be screened at age 50, instead of age 40, which was the previous recommendation. Do you think the new guidelines are a good idea?
18% Good idea, 76% Bad idea

Do you think the new recommendations are based more on medicine? Or more on money?
12% Medicine, 77% Money

Among women 35+ who have had mammograms:
Will this affect how often you get future mammograms?
33% Yes, 65% No

Among women 35+ who have not had mammograms:
Will this affect when you go for your first mammogram?
41% Yes, 48% No


US: Health Care (Pew 11/12-15)


Pew Research Center
11/12-15/09; 1,003 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)

National

As of right now, do you generally favor or generally oppose the health care proposals being discussed in Congress?
42% Favor, 39% Oppose

Among those who oppose: As I read some reasons people have given for opposing health care reform, please tell me if each one is a major reason, a minor reason, or not a reason why you oppose the health care reform proposals being discussed in Congress.

Too much government involvement in health care:
85% Major reason, 7% Minor reason, 7% Not a reason

Your own health care may suffer:
70% Major reason, 16% Minor reason, 13% Not a reason

Health care reform is too expensive for the country:
78% Major reason, 13% Minor reason, 8% Not a reason

Government money might pay for abortions:
56% Major reason, 21% Minor reason, 22% Not a reason

The plan might cover illegal immigrants:
67% Major reason, 20% Minor reason, 14% Not a reason

Among those who oppose:
38% Too much government involvement in health care
27% Health care reform is too expensive for the country
14% Your own health care may suffer
8% Government money might pay for abortions
7% The plan might cover illegal immigrants

Asked of all: If the government health care reform plan guarantees certain medical benefits for all Americans, do you think that abortion should or should not be included as one of those benefits?
28% Should be included, 55% Should not be included

Do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or strongly oppose making it more DIFFICULT for a woman to get an abortion?
40% Favor, 43% Oppose


US: Fort Hood (CNN 11/13-15)


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/13-15/09; ~500 adults (half samples), 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

As you may know, a soldier named Nidal Hasan recently shot and killed thirteen people in Ft. Hood Texas. Based on what you know about this matter, do you consider Hasan's actions to be an act of terrorism, or do you consider this to be an act of murder with no direct connection to terrorism?
45% Terrorism, 47% Murder

Based on what you know about this matter, do you think federal law enforcement agencies or the U.S. military should have been able to prevent this from happening, or don't you think so?
64% Should have been able to prevent, 31% Don't think so


CA: 2010 Gov (Rasmussen 11/17)


Rasmussen
11/17/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

California

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 / 43 (chart)
Gov. Schwarzenegger: 29 / 69 (chart)

2010 Governor (trends)
Whitman (R) 41%, Brown (D) 41%
Brown (D) 43%, Poizner (R) 32%
Brown (D) 42%, Campbell (R) 33%

Favorable / Unfavorable
Meg Whitman: 47 / 27
Jerry Brown: 48 / 41
Steve Poizner: 36 / 26
Tom Campbell: 40 / 20


US: Health Care (Quinnipiac 11/9-16)


Quinnipiac
11/9-16/09; 2,518 registered voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

National

Obama Approval on Health Care
41% Approve, 53% Disapprove (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 50 / 38 (chart)
Democratic Party: 39 / 46
Republican Party: 28 / 53

State of the Country
30% Satisfied, 69% Dissatisfied (chart)

Which one of the following statements comes closest to the way you feel about Barack Obama:
46% I like Barack Obama as a person and I also like most of his policies
28% I like Barack Obama as a person but I don't like most of his policies
1% I don't like Barack Obama as a person but I DO like most of his policies
20% I don't like Barack Obama as a person and I also don't like most of his policies?

Who do you trust to do a better job handling health care - President Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
45% Obama, 36% Republicans in Congress

Do you approve or disapprove of this health care reform plan? [the health care reform plan that was recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives]
35% Approve, 51% Disapprove (chart)

Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?
57% Support, 35% Oppose

There is a proposal that would allow states to opt out of a public option - that is it would be left up to each state to decide whether or not to give people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan. Do you think that is a good idea or a bad idea?
43% Good idea, 49% Bad idea

Some have suggested that the creation of a public option should only be triggered if the private market does not meet benchmarks to extend coverage to all Americans. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?
38% good idea, 47% Bad idea

Do you agree or disagree with the following: Congress should approve a health care overhaul plan even if only Democrats support it.
36% Agree, 60% Disagree

Do you think the Republicans in Congress are, or are not, making a good faith effort to cooperate with Obama and the Democrats on health care reform?
29% Making effort, 59% Not making effort

Do you think Obama and the Democrats in Congress are, or are not, making a good faith effort to cooperate with the Republicans on health care reform?
43% Making effort, 46% Not making effort


Can You Actually Spell Erudite? 'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Gary Langer considers divergent results on terror trials.

Greg Sargent notes that NYC terror trial opposition tends to be old, white and Republican.

David Hill gives Obama's stock a "sell" rating.

Mark Mellman says voters oppose Congress making abortion decision.

John Petrocik charts Obama job approval for Resurgent Republic.

Alan Reifman calculates opposition to health care reform from the Left.

John Sides flags surprising opposition to the Opt-Out provision for the Public Option.

Nathaniel Persily reviews new survey data on "terror, torture and death."

Politico's Alex Isenstadt reports on reactions from Democratic party officials to setbacks with independents.

Noam Scheiber responds to Rasmussen and Schoen on deficit politics.

Nate Silver, Tom Schaller and Jim Geraghty ponder whether Sarah Palin will run for president.

James Vega thinks Obama's new Afghan strategy is not a "betrayal" of the Democratic base.

Chris Bowers finds the demographics of Democrats look more progressive than Blue Dog.

Tom Schaller handicaps the 2010 races for governor.

Teagan Goddard recaps coverage of his CQ/Roll Call polling panel.

The Pew Internet & American Life Project reports on teens and distracted driving.

Mike Mokrzycki assesses two surveys looking at who will pay for news.

Melissa DeCesare shares data on the power of Mom.

Doug Hoffman "Un-Concedes."

How will Frank Luntz top this (via Eldon)?


MN: Obama vs Pawlenty (StCloud 10/26-11/4)


St. Cloud State University
10/26-11/4/09; 550 adults, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(St. Cloud State release)

Minnesota

Job Rating
Gov. Pawlenty: 49% Excellent/Good, 48% Only Fair/Poor (chart)
Pres. Obama: 50% Excellent/Good, 47% Only Fair/Poor (chart)

If the 2012 presidential election was held today with Barack Obama
being the Democratic Candidate and Tim Pawlenty being the Republican
Candidate, would you vote for Obama or Pawlenty?

49% Obama, 40% Pawlenty


Klein: 'Polling on Issues is Next to Useless'

Topics: Joe Klein , Measurement , Question wording

Joe Klein posted an item to Time's Swampland blog this morning that is usually the sort of thing I link to in our 'Outliers' feature, but his argument was provocative enough to deserve more emphasis. Fair use and common courtesy prevent me from reproducing the whole thing --it's short and worth reading in full -- but the gist is that Klein noted two results from yesterday's CNN poll, offered the reasonable hypothesis that differently worded questions might have produced different results and offered this conclusion:

The point is, polling on issues is next to useless--especially on issues as emotionally complicated as wars and as technically complicated as health care reform. The only safe conclusion from these particular polls is this: the public has mixed feelings on Afghanistan and health care reform. Brilliant! I have mixed feelings, too. But that's not the way you'll see these played: the headlines will be: Public Opposes Health bill. Public Opposes War.

And the headlines will be ginormous. This is one of my biggest gripes with journalism as it is practiced, particularly on cable news: Polling numbers are "facts." They can be cited with absolute authority, sort of. And so they are given credence beyond all proportion to their actual importance or relevance. But they are not very truthy facts. The are imperfect impressions.

Thoughts anyone?

[Correction: I added "next to" back to the headline. Thanks to Mark L for catching my goof and apologies for the omission]. 


US: Party Ideology (CNN 11/13-15)


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/13-15/09; 310 Democrats, 4.5% margin of errpr
281 Republicans, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National


Democrats: If you had to choose, would you rather see the Democratic party in your area nominate candidates who don't agree with you on some major issues but have a good chance of beating the Republican candidate, or would you rather see the Democratic party nominate candidates who agree with you on all major issues but have a poor chance of beating the Republican candidate?

Republicans: If you had to choose, would you rather see the Republican party in your area nominate candidates who don't agree with you on some major issues but have a good chance of beating the Democratic candidate, or would you rather see the Republican party nominate candidates who agree with you on all major issues but have a poor chance of beating the
Democratic candidate?

Democrats:
58% Prefer candidates who can beat the other party
38% Prefer candidates who agree with you on issues

Republicans:
43% Prefer candidates who can beat the other party
51% Prefer candidates who agree with you on issues


MO: 2010 Sen (PPP 11/13-15)


Public Policy Polling (D)
11/13-15/09; 763 registered voters, 3.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

National

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 43 / 52 (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Roy Blunt: 30 / 38
Robin Carnahan: 40 / 36
Chuck Purgason: 7 / 14

2010 Senate (trends)
43% Carnahan, 42% Blunt (chart)
42% Carnahan, 35% Purgason

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
53% Blunt, 16% Purgason


US: Islamic Extremism (Pew 11/12-15)


Pew Research Center
11/12-15/09; 1,003 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Pew release)

National

How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise of Islamic extremism around the WORLD these days?
49% Very concerned
29% Somewhat concerned
12% Not too concerned
8% Not at all concerned

How concerned, if at all, are you about the possible rise of Islamic extremism IN THE U.S.?
52% Very concerned
27% Somewhat concerned
11% Not too concerned
7% Not at all concerned


US: Afghanistan (ABC/Post 11/12-15)


ABC News / Washington POst
11/12-15/09; 1,001 adults, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ABC: story, results; Post: story, graphics)

National

Who do you trust to do a better job handling the situation in Afghanisan - Obama or the Republicans in Congress?
46% Obama, 41% Republicans

Do you think Obama's policies are making the United States safer from terrorism, less safe, or are they not making much difference in that?
27% Safer, 22% Less safe, 49% Not much difference

On another subject, all in all, considering the costs to the United States versus
the benefits to the United States, do you think the war in Afghanistan has been worth
fighting, or not?

44% Worth fighting, 52% Not worth fighting

If Obama decides to send more U.S. forces to Afghanistan, would you prefer that he send a smaller number of U.S. forces mainly to train the Afghan military; or that he send a larger number of U.S. forces to fight al Qaeda and the Taliban as well as to train the Afghan military?
45% Smaller number, 46% Larger number

In deciding U.S. policy in Afghanistan do you think Obama is giving U.S. military leaders too much influence, too little influence, or about the right amount?
9% Too much, 35% Too little, 51% Right amount

What do you think would do more to increase the risk of a terrorist attack occurring here in the United States - withdrawing from Afghanistan, or remaining in Afghanistan - or is the risk of terrorism about the same either way?
23% Withdrawing, 12% Remaining, 64% Same either way


US: Health Care (Gallup 11/5-8)


Gallup
11/5-8/09; 1,008 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Gallup release)

National

Regardless of whether you favor or oppose health care legislation, what are some of the concerns you would have if a new healthcare measure is passed into law? [OPEN-ENDED]

Among All Adults Among those who favor legislation Among those who oppose legislation
Costs 24 22 25
Government-run healthcare/Bureaucracy/Government take-over/Socialized medicine 18 9 28
Making sure everyone is covered/Has access 12 19 4
Effect on quality of care 7 6 8
Government plan/public option 6 6 7
Ability to get needed treatments/Rationing care/Wait times for care 5 6 4
Unclear how plan would work 5 4 6
Effect on senior citizens/Medicare 4 3 5
Increased taxes 3 1 5
Would provide coverage to illegal immigrants 3 2 4
Being able to see current doctors 2 2 3
Forcing people to have insurance/Fines for not having 2 1 3
How it will be paid for 2 1 3
Being able to keep current plan, benefits 2 1 3
Would pay for abortions 2 1 3
Coverage for prescriptions 1 2 1


US: Health Care (CNN 11/13-15)


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/13-15/09; 928 registered voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

Now thinking specifically about the health insurance plans available to most Americans, would you favor or oppose creating a public health insurance option administered by the federal government that would compete with plans offered by private health insurance companies?
56% Favor, 42% Oppose

Would you favor or oppose that plan if state governments were able to decide that the public health insurance option administered by the federal government would not apply to all people living in those states?
28% Favor, 66% Oppose

Now here are a few provisions in the health care bill passed by the U.S. House. Please tell me whether you favor or oppose each one.

Requiring all Americans who do not have health insurance to get it:
49% Favor, 49% Oppose

Reducing federal spending on Medicare managed care programs:
30% Favor, 66% Oppose

Providing subsidies to families that make less than $88,000 a year to help them purchase health insurance:
67% Favor, 32% Oppose

Preventing health insurance companies from denying coverage to people with pre-existing conditions:
60% Favor, 40% Oppose

As you may know, nearly every Republican in the U.S. House voted against the health care bill which recently passed. Do you think that is mostly an indication that there is something wrong with the bill or mostly an indication that there is something wrong with the Republican Party's approach to health care legislation?
46% Something wrong with the bill, 49% Something wrong with the Republican approach

Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal under only certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances?
26% Legal under any
10% Legal in most
40% Legal in a few
23% Illegal in all

Generally speaking, are you in favor of using public funds for abortions when the woman cannot afford it, or are you opposed to that?
37% Favor, 61% Oppose

Now think about women who are covered by private health insurance plans that are paid for by private individuals or employers with no money from the government involved. Do you think private health insurance plans should cover some or all of the costs of an abortion, or do you think that women who want to get an abortion should have to pay the complete costs of that abortion out of their own pockets?
45% Health insurance should cover, 51% Pay all costs herself


US: National Survey (Quinnipiac 11/9-16)


Quinnipiac
11/9-16/09; 2,518 registered voters, 2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

National

Obama Job Approval
48% Approve, 42% Disapprove (chart)
Reps: 14 / 77 (chart)
Dems: 82 / 10 (chart)
Inds: 43 / 46 (chart)
Economy: 43 / 52 (chart)
Foreign Policy: 49 / 42 (chart)

Do you think the U.S. is doing the right thing by fighting the war in Afghanistan now, or should the U.S. not be involved in Afghanistan now?
48% Right thing
41% Shouldn't be involved

Do you think the United States will be successful in building a stable democratic government in Afghanistan or not?
22% Yes, 63% No

Do you think the United States will be successful in eliminating the threat from terrorists operating from Afghanistan or not?
36% Yes, 53% No

General Stanley McChrystal, the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan, has asked President Obama to send 40,000 additional combat troops. Should Obama send the troops or not?
47% Yes, 42% No

Do you trust President Obama to make the right decisions about U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan or not?
53% Yes, 42% No

Do you trust the U.S. military to make the right recommendations about U.S. troop levels in Afghanistan or not?
77% Yes, 18% No

Do you think the United States is heading for the same kind of involvement in Afghanistan as it had in the Vietnam War, or do you think the United States will avoid that kind of involvement this time?.
35% Same as Vietnam, 51% Will avoid that


US: Health Care, Afghanistan (CBS 11/13-16)


CBS News
11/13-16/09; 1,167 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CBS: Health Care - story, results; Afghanistan - story, results; Terrorism trials - story;
Fort Hood - story)

National

Obama Job Approval
53% Approve, 36% Disapprove (chart)
Foreign Policy: 50 / 36 (chart)
Economy: 49 / 43 (chart)
Afghanistan: 38 / 43
Health Care: 44 / 48 (chart)

Congressional Job Approval
26% Approve, 60% Disapprove (chart)

Approval / Disapproval on Health Care
Dems in Congress: 30 / 59
Reps in Congress: 23 / 62

Which of these comes closest to you view?
34% Abortion should be generally available to those who want it.
40% Abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now
23% Abortion should not be permitted.

From what you've heard or read, do you mostly approve or mostly disapprove of the proposed changes to the health care system under consideration in Congress?
40% Mostly approve, 45% Mostly disapprove (chart)

Would you favor or oppose the government offering some people who are uninsured the choice of a government administered health insurance plan -- also known as a "public option" -- that would compete with private health insurance plans?.
61% Favor, 28% Oppose

Which of the following comes closest to your view about the proposed changes to the health care system now under consideration in Congress?
51% Congress should pass a health care bill that includes a government administered health insurance plan also called a public option.
16% Congress should pass a health care bill that does not include a government administered health insurance plan also called a public option
26% Congress should not pass any health care bill.

If the federal government provides subsidies or credits to help people buy health insurance, do you think those insurance plans should or should not cover abortion procedures?
34% Should, 56% Should not

From what you know so far, which comes closest to your own view?
7% The economic stimulus package has already created a substantial number of new jobs in the U.S.
46% It will create a substantial number of new jobs but hasn't done that yet
42% It will not create a substantial number of new jobs?

From what you have seen or heard about the situation in Afghanistan, what should the United States do now--should the U.S. increase the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan, keep the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan as they are now, or decrease the numbers of troops in Afghanistan?
32% Increase, 20% Keep the same, 39% Decrease

When it comes to dealing with people suspected of involvement in terrorist attacks against the United States, which would you prefer:
40% Trying them in open criminal court with a jury, and a civilian judge
54% Trying them in a closed military court with a military judge?

Do you think the U.S. military had information that could have prevented the shootings that occurred at the Army base in Fort Hood, Texas or not?
51% Could have been prevented
29% Could not have been prevented


So What's a Likely Voter? Answers from Rasmussen and PPP

Topics: Automated polls , IVR , Likely Voters , PPP , Rasmussen

I spent the morning at Midterm Election Preview panel discussion sponsored by our competitor colleagues at the CQ Roll Call Group that featured pollsters Peter Brown of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling and Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports. During the question-and-answer period I asked a question about my favorite hobby-horse, what a "likely voter" is and how pollsters select them.

I directed the question (which begins at about the 1:00 mark) at Rasmussen and Jensen largely because their national surveys on presidential job approval and other issues are among the few that currently report results for likely voters or "voters" and because their reports provide little definition of those terms. The persistent and noticeable "house effect" in the Rasmussen results has led some to conclude that they are "polling a different country than other polling outfits."

I promise a longer post tomorrow summarizing my take on why Rasmussen is different, but since I'm running out of blogging time today, here are the verbatim answers from earlier today followed by a few comments. First, Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports:

First of all, we actually do have something in our daily presidential tracking poll that says that it's likely voters not adults, and we we do have a link to a page that explains something about the differences, maybe not as concisely or as articulate as I will say here...

There's a challenge to defining a likely voter. The process is a little different than in the week before an election for us than it is in two months before an election than it is in a year before an election. And to give a little history, normally if you would go do a sample of all adults, you go and interview whoever picks up the phone and you model your population sample to the population at large. When you begin to sample for likely voters you do it by asking a series of screening questions.

At this point in time, we use a fairly loose screening process, in the sense that we don't ask details about how certain you are to vote in a particular election next November. In fact, even the term "likely voters" is probably not the best term. I used to use the phrase "high propensity voters," because it was suggesting that these people who were most likely to show up in a typical mid-term election. We're not claiming this is a particular model of who will show up in 2010. When we used the phrase, "high propensity voters" -- I got a bunch of journalists who wrote back saying, "what does that mean?" I tried to explain it and they said, "oh you mean likely voters." So I finally just gave up.

Now for us [what] happens is that from this point in time, from now until Labor Day right before the election we will continue to use this model. These are people who are generally likely to show up in a mid-term election. When we get closer to the election, we add additional screens based on their interest in the election and their certainty of voting in this particular race and so the number does get more precise.

What does it mean in practical terms? Rasmussen Reports and Gallup are the only two polls out there with a daily tracking poll of the President's job approval. If you go back from January 20th on, most of the time you will see that Gallup's reported number is about three or four or five points higher than ours, because these are surveys and there is statistical noise. Sometimes the gap is bigger, sometimes its smaller. In fact there are some days when our number is a little bit higher than Gallup's. But typically, the gap between the adults and the likely voter sample is in the four or five point range.

The reason: Likely voters are less likely to include young adults, people who [as] Tom mentioned were very supportive of the President. They are less likely to include minority voters who are, again, very strongly supportive of this President. And so the gap is consistent.

Now I would explain that, at this point and time, it's a little like the difference between measuring something in inches or in meters, inches or in centimeters: the trends are the same in both cases, the implications are the same in both instances. And, by the way, the ultimate answers are that Republicans strongly disapprove of this President, Democrats strongly approve of this President, and independent voters have grown a little bit disenchanted, but they're not anywhere near the level of discontent that Republicans show. And that's true whether you measure it with likely voters or adults.

Next, Tom Jensen of PPP:

Well, I'll give a very concise answer. For our national polls, we're just pulling a list from Aristotle Incorporated of registered voters, period. We don't do any sort of likely voter sampling on our national polls. On our state level polls for 2010 races, we're polling lists of people who voted in the 2004, 2006 or 2008 general elections. If we were a live interviewer pollster that would be too liberal a sampling criteria, but we do automated polling and people who don't tend to vote in an election aren't going to answer an automated poll, so they just hang up. So we figure the 2008 wave voters we should be calling because some of them will come out in 2010, and those who will not, just hang up.

A few quick notes. First, very little of Rasmussen's explanation of his voter screen appears on the Rasmussen Reports methodology page (the one that's linked to from their daily presidential presidential tracking poll). Second, I'm still not quite clear on the question or questions that they currently use to screen for likely voters, although he implies that they ask a question about how often respondents typically vote. I understand that media pollsters often treat these screen questions like a proprietary "secret sauce," although the partisan pollsters that rely on screen questions, including Democracy Corps, Resurgent Republic and Public Opinion Strategies, typically include them in their filled-in questionnaires. Rasmussen Reports could help consumers of its data better understand "what country they are polling" if they did the same.

Finally, about Jensen's comment that "people who don't tend to vote in an election aren't going to answer an automated poll, so they just hang up:" He assumes that to be true -- and it's a perfectly reasonable assumption -- but I am not sure anyone has produced hard evidence yet that non-voters "just hang up." If they do, however, it calls into question the wisdom of assuming that an initial sample of adults called with an automated poll is really a sample of all adults (a question I've wondered about for years, even for pre-election surveys conducted with live interviewers).


ME: Ratings (Critical Insights 10/23-27)


Critical Insights
10/23-27/09; 600 registered voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Critical Insights release - requires free registration)

Maine

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 56 / 29

Job Approval / Disapproval
Sen. Collins: 68 / 22
Sen. Snowe: 70 / 21
Gov. Baldacci: 38 / 52


US: National Survey (CNN 11/13-15)


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/13-15/09; 1,014 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

Obama Job Approval
55% Approve, 42% Disapprove (chart)

2010 House: Generic Ballot
49% Democrat, 42% Republican (chart)

As you may know, the U.S. House of Representatives recently passed a bill that would make major changes in the country's health care system. Based on what you have heard or read about that bill, do you generally favor it or generally oppose it?
46% Favor, 49% Oppose (chart)

As you may know, the bill passed by the U.S. House requires approval by the U.S. Senate before it becomes law. Which of the following do you think the Senate should do:
30% Consider the House bill this fall and make relatively minor changes before passing it into law
22% Consider the House bill this fall but pass it into law only if major changes are made
28% Start work on an entirely new bill that would not be ready until sometime next year
17% Stop working on any bills that would change the country's health care system


US: Health Care (POS 11/9-11)


Public Opinion Strategies (R)
11/9-11/09; 700 registered voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(POS release)
Update: toplines

National

State of the Country
34% Right Direction, 59% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
52% Approve, 44% Disapprove (chart)

Based on what you know, do you favor or oppose President Obama's proposed health
care plan, or do you not yet have an opinion?

29% Favor, 40% Oppose (chart)

Public Opinion Strategies:

  • Opposition to President Obama's health care plan is higher after the House vote than our previous tracks (29% favor/40% oppose). Voters' net opposition to the plan has increased from -6% in September (31% favor/37% oppose) to -11% today.
  • Voter opposition to President Obama's health care plan is higher than ever measured for President Clinton's plan in 1993/1994 (35% oppose in June 1994).
  • Multiple surveys show voters believe President Obama's health care plan will mean their health care costs will increase (46% increase/11% decrease) and their quality of care will get worse (40% get worse/18% get better). Concerns about cost have trended up since September.
  • Data continue to show the more people hear about President Obama's health care plan the less they like it (38% the more I like it/52% the less I like it).


NYC: Terrorism Trials (Marist 11/16)


Marist
11/16/09; 602 adults, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews and automated phone
(Marist release)

New York City

Five alleged 9/11 attackers of the World Trade Center will be tried in federal court. Do you think it is a good idea or a bad idea to have this trial located in New York City?
45% Good idea, 41% Bad idea

Do you think having the trial in New York City will make the city more of a target for terrorism, less of a target for terrorism, or make no difference to how much New York City is seen as a target for terrorism?
40% More of a target, 7% Less of a target, 47% No difference

Are you confident or not confident New York City will be able to handle the potential security risks of such a trial?
67% Confident, 22% Not confident

If the trial is held in New York City will you feel more at risk for your personal safety, less at risk, or will it make no difference to how you feel about your personal safety?
34% More at risj, 8% Less at risk, 52% No difference


US: Obama Approval (CBS 11/13-15)


CBS News
11/13-15/09; 1,167 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CBS: story, results)

National

Obama Job Approval
53% Approve, 36% Disapprove (chart)
Afghanistan: 38 / 43
Foreign Policy: 50 / 36 (chart)


MN: 2010 Gov Primary (Rasmussen 11/10)


Rasmussen
11/10/09; 492 likely Democratic primary voters, 5% margin of error
330 likely Republican primary voters, 5.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Minnesota

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
30% R.T. Rybak, 30% Mark Dayton, 8% Margaret Anderson Kelliher, 6% Matt Entenza

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
50% Norm Coleman, 11% Marty Seifert, 5% Laura Brod, 1% Tom Emmer


US: National Survey (ABC/Post 11/12-15)


ABC News / Washington Post
11/12-15/09; 1,001 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ABC: story, results; Post: story, results)

National

Obama Job Approval
56% Approve, 42% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 51 / 47 (chart)
Health Care: 47 / 49 (chart)

State of the Country
44% Right Direction, 55% Wrong Track (chart)

Overall, which party, the Democrats or the Republicans, do you trust to do a better job in coping with the main problems the nation faces over the next few years?
47% Democrats, 31% Republicans

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 61 / 38 (chart)

Overall, given what you know about them, would you say you support or oppose the proposed changes to the health care system being developed by Congress and the Obama administration? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
48% Support, 49% Oppose (chart)

Just your best guess, if the health care system is changed, do you think the quality of _____ will get better, get worse, or remain about the same?
Your health care: 19% Better, 37% Worse, 42% Same
Health care for most people: 34% Better, 38% Worse, 26% Same

Would you support or oppose having the government create a new health insurance plan to compete with private health insurance plans? Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat?
53% Support, 43% Oppose

Say someone buys private health insurance using government assistance to help pay for it. Do you think insurance sold that way should or should not be allowed to include coverage for abortions?
35% Should, 61% Should not

Thinking about politics: Right now, are you inclined to vote to re-elect your representative in Congress in the next election or are you inclined to look around for someone else to vote for?
38% Re-elect, 50% Look around

Party ID
355 Democrat, 21% Republican, 39% independent (chart)


US: Palin (CBS 11/13-15)


CBS News
11/13-15/09; 873 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CBS: story, results)

National

Favorable / Unfavorable
Sarah Palin: 23 / 38 (chart)

Would you like to see Sarah Palin run for president of the United States in 2012, or not?
24% Would, 66% Would Not

Do you think Sarah Palin would have the ability to be an effective President?
26% Yes, 62% No


US: Terrorism Trials (CNN 11/13-15)


CNN / Opinion research Corporation
11/13-15/09; 1,014 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

Now here are some questions about Khalid Sheik Mohammed who may be responsible for planning the 9/11 attacks and who is now in custody at a U.S. military prison in another country: If you had to choose, would you rather see Khalid Sheik Mohammed brought to trial in a criminal court run by the civilian judicial system, or would you rather see him tried by a military court run by the U.S. armed forces?
34% Brought to trial in a criminal court run by the civilian justice system
64% Tried by a military court run by the U.S. armed forces

And regardless of which court system you think he should be tried in, if you had to choose, would you rather see Khalid Sheik Mohammed brought to the U.S. to stand trial or would you rather see him tried in a U.S. facility in another country?
60% Brought to the U.S. to stand trial
37% Tried in a U.S> facility in another country

If Khalid Sheik Mohammed is tried in a civilian court in the U.S., do you think he would get a fair trial, or don't you think so?
64% Yes, fair trial
34% No, don't think so

If Khalid Sheik Mohammed is found guilty of planning the 9/11 attacks, which of the following statements best describes your view:
59% You generally support the death penalty and believe he should be executed if he is found guilty
19% You generally oppose the death penalty, but believe he should be executed in this case if he is found guilty
19% You generally oppose the death penalty and believe he should not be executed if he is found guilty


DE: Biden 45 Castle 40 (Susquehanna 11/10-15)


Susquehanna (R)
11/10-15/09; 850 registered voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Susquehanna release)

Delaware

2010 Senate (trends)
45% Beau Biden (D), 40% Mike Castle (R)


US: Palin (CNN 11/13-15)


CNN / Opinion Research Corporation
11/13-15/09; 1,014 adults, 3% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(CNN release)

National

Please tell me whether you think each of the following is or is not qualified to be president:
Sarah Palin: 28% Is qualified, 70% Is not
Joe Biden: 50% Is qualified, 48% Is not
Hillary Clinton: 67% Is qualified, 32% Is not
Mitt Romney: 47% Is qualified, 42% Is not
Mike Huckabee: 43% Is qualified, 47% Is not


NY: 2010 Gov, Sen (Siena 11/8-12)


Siena
11/8-12/09; 800 registered voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Siena release)

New York

Favorable / Unfavorable
David Paterson: 33 / 56 (chart)
Andrew Cuomo: 70 / 20
Rick Lazio: 29 / 22
Rudy Giuliani: 62 / 34
Kirsten Gillibrand: 34 / 24 (chart)
George Pataki: 55 / 36
Chuck Schumer: 60 / 30 (chart)

Job Rating
Gov. Paterson: 21% Excellent/Good, 79% Fair/Poor

If David Paterson runs for Governor in 2010, would you vote to elect him or would you prefer someone else?
17% Elect, 69% prefer someone else

Would you like Rudy Giuliani to run for Governor of New York in 2010, United States Senator, or would you prefer that he not run for Governor or Senator in 2010?
32% Governor, 19% Senator, 44% Neither

If Kirsten Gillibrand runs for United States Senator in 2010, would you vote to elect her or would you prefer someone else?
33% Elect, 38% Prefer someone else

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
75% Cuomo, 16% Paterson (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election
56% Giuliani, 33% Paterson (chart)
42% Lazio, 39% Paterson (chart)
53% Cuomo, 41% Giuliani (chart)
67% Cuomo, 22% Lazio (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election (trends)
49% Giuliani, 43% Gillibrand
45% Gillibrand, 44% Pataki (chart)


US: Health Care (Rasmussen 11/13-14)


Rasmussen
11/13-14/09; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

National

Generally speaking, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the health care reform plan proposed by President Obama and the congressional Democrats?
47% Somewhat/Strongly favor, 49% Somewhat/strongly oppose (chart)

If the health care reform plan passes, will the quality of health care get better, worse, or stay about the same?
23% Better, 45% Worse, 25% Same

If the health care reform plan passes, will the cost of health care go up, go down, or stay about the same?
56% up, 17% Down, 20% Same


IA: 2010 Sen, Gov (DMR 11/8-11)


Des Moines Register / Selzer & Co. / Iowa Poll
11/8-11/09; 800 adults, 3.5% margin of error
539 likely voters, 4.2% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Des Moines Register: 2010 Gov, Sen))

Iowa

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Culver: 40 / 49
Sen. Harkin: 54 / 33
Sen. Grassley: 57 / 32

Favorable / Unfavorable
Chet Culver (D): 48 / 46
Terry Branstad (R): 60 / 22
Bob Vander Plaats (R): 24 / 12
Christopher Rants (R): 14 / 11
Christian Fong (R) 10 / 6
Chuck Grassley (R): 64 / 30
Roxanne Conlin (D): 22 / 16

2010 Governor (among likely voters)
Branstad 57%, Culver 33%
Vander Plaats 45%, Culver 37%
Culver 42%, Rants 35%
Culver 42%, Fong 34%

2010 Senate (among likely voters)
Grassley 57%, Conlin 30%


NC: Perdue Approval (PPP 11/9-11)


Public Policy Polling (D)
11/1-11/09; 711 registered voters, 3.7% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(PPP release)

North Carolina

Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Perdue: 30 / 49 (chart)


US: Palin (Rasmussen 11/13-14)


Rasmussen
11/13-14/09; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

National

Do you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable or very unfavorable impression of Sarah Palin?
51% Very/Somewhat favorable, 43% Very/Somewhat unfavorable (chart)

Do you plan to read Sarah Palin's new book?
20% Yes, 61% No

Is Sarah Palin a divisive force in the Republican Party, or is she representative of a new direction for the party?
26% Divisive force, 41% Representative of a new direction

Does Sarah Palin share the values of most Republican voters throughout the nation?
41% Yes, 30% No


US: Palin (ABC/Post 11/12-15)


ABC News / Washington Post
11/12-15/09; 1,001 adults, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ABC: blog post, results; Post: blog post)

National

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Sarah
Palin?

43% Favorable, 52% Unfavorable (chart)

If Palin runs for president in 2012, would you definitely vote for her, would you consider voting for her, or would you definitely not vote for her?
9% Definitely would, 37% Would consider, 53% Definitely would not

Regardless of whether or not you'd vote for her, do you think Palin is or is not qualified to serve as president?
38% Is qualified, 60% Is not qualified


US: Health Care (AP-GfK 10/29-11/8)


AP-GfK / Stanford University / Robert Wood Johnson Foundation
10/29-11/8/09; 1,502 adults, 2.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(AP-GfK release)

National

State of the Country
38% Right Direction, 57% Wrong Track (chart)

Obama Job Approval
53% Approve, 46% Disapprove (chart)
Economy: 49 / 45 (chart)
Health Care: 47 / 47 (chart)

In general, do you support, oppose or neither support nor oppose the health care reform plans being discussed in Congress?
41% Support, 43% Oppose (chart)

How much, if at all, should the health care system in the United States be CHANGED? Would you say it should be changed...
56% A great deal/A lot, 28% A Moderate amount, 16% Not at all

Would you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law that would require every person to have health insurance, and pay money to the government as a penalty if they do not, unless the person is very poor?
28% Favor, 64% Oppose

Would you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose a law that would require most medium-size and large companies to offer health insurance to their employees or pay money to the government as a penalty if they don't?
52% Favor, 41% Oppose

Would you favor, oppose, or neither favor nor oppose reducing the income taxes paid by small companies if they offer health insurance to their workers?
73% Favor, 19% Oppose

Today, insurance companies can decide not to sell health insurance to a person who is
currently sick or has had a serious illness in the past. A law could require companies to
sell health insurance to these people. This law would probably cause most people to
pay more for health insurance. Would you favor such a law, oppose it, or neither favor
nor oppose it?

43% Favor, 31% Oppose

Today, if a person has health insurance and then gets a serious illness, insurance companies can decide not to renew the person's health insurance. A law could require companies to continue to sell health insurance to these people. This law would also probably cause most people to pay more for health insurance. Would you favor such a law, oppose it, or neither favor nor oppose it?
57% Favor, 22% Oppose

Today, if a person gets a serious illness, insurance companies can increase the amount of money the person has to pay for health insurance. A law could prevent companies from increasing health insurance costs for people who get sick. This law would probably cause most people who are healthy to pay more for health insurance. Would you favor such a law, oppose it, or neither favor nor oppose it?
41% Favor, 31% Oppose

Party ID
30% Democrat, 21% Republican, 44% independent (chart)


As Goes New Jersey So Goes...Health Care?

Topics: 2009 , Automated polls , Health Care Reform , IVR Polls , Jay Leve , National Journal column , PPP , Rasmussen , Scott Rasmussen , SurveyUSA , Tom Jensen

My column for this week reviews the notion that the success of automated polling, sometimes known by the acronym IVR (for Interactive Voice Response), in predicting the outcomes of this year's elections extends to polls on other issues, especially health care reform. Please click through and read it all.

The column quotes the pollsters at the three most prominent firms that conduct automated polling, SurveyUSA, Rasmussen Reports and Public Policy Polling (PPP).  Since I quoted each only briefly in the article, and since their comments were all far more extensive and on-the-record, I am sharing them here verbatim.

I asked each to respond to this passage of a polling review from former George W. Bush deputy chief of staff Karl Rove:

Automated polling firms like SurveyUSA and Rasmussen have drawn criticism in the health care debate for showing Americans significantly more opposed to reform than traditional pollsters who use human interviewers.

Yet on Tuesday, automated polling firms like Rasmussen were significantly more accurate than conventional competitors. Voters who stay on the phone to answer the questions of an automated pollster may more accurately represent the electorate in off-‐year elections when turnout is lower and only the most enthusiastic voters are likely to turn out. If so, Democrats who face re-‐election next year should start worrying--automated pollsters' results showing a majority of Americans opposed to health care reform may be the most prescient look at what lies in store for next year's midterms.

Scott Rasmussen, Rasmussen Reports

First, I am pleased that Karl Rove noted how "automated polling firms like Rasmussen were significantly more accurate than conventional competitors" in polling the New Jersey Governor's race.

Only part of that success can be attributed to the automated methodology. Much of it has to do with the way that we measured the support of nominal supporters of Daggett and undecided voters. Our survey model helped us project actual Daggett's vote total more closely than other firms.

As a result, I continue to believe that you can do a good automated poll or a good operator-assisted poll. You can also do a bad poll using either method. Automated systems clearly have an advantage when it comes to consistency in tracking polls, but there may be areas where operator-assisted polls have an advantage as well.

As for the health care debate, the methodology issue has little to do with it because all polls show a plurality or majority opposition to the health care plan working its way through Congress. On the Pollster.com site, the average results show 49.6% opposed and 41.8% in favor, a gap of just under 8 points. Our latest polling at Rasmussen Reports shows 45% in favor and 52% opposed, a 7 point gap.

I do believe Democrats should be concerned because the health care debate has become a lose-lose situation for them. But, it's not because automated polls show a different result. It's because all polls send the same message. The health care issue is complex and very challenging to measure. But, the overall messages from polling using both automated systems and operator-assisted approaches are quite similar. Most Americans are at least somewhat happy with their own coverage and quality of care. Anything that would force them to change is going to create political problems. Competition and choice are seen as good things. And, there is a strong desire to reduce the cost of health care along with a skepticism about the ability of our political process to accomplish that goal.

Jay Leve, SurveyUSA

Recorded-voice telephone polls are not inherently superior.

Recorded-voice telephone polls are not inherently inferior.

True: when asked yes/no questions about personal conduct - such as: "Do you have unprotected sex?" or "Do you drink alone?" - respondents who answer by pressing a button or checking a box report higher incidences than respondents who must "confess" to a human.

But: I don't think you can argue, on an issue as complicated as health-care, that mode trumps. I could draft two health-care questions today, and produce conflicting results tomorrow, one that shows support for reform, the other that shows opposition. And I could do that regardless of whether the research was conducted by US mail, mall intercepts, headset operators, professional announcers, or email.

Too many poll watchers are mode-fixated. Often, mode is the least of it.

Tom Jensen, Public Policy Polling (PPP):

IVR polls were more accurate than live interviewers in New Jersey and Virginia at calling the horse race. That does not mean IVR is superior to live interviewers on every kind of question that ever gets polled. It does mean that IVR polls should be taken as seriously as any other polls on most measures of public opinion- they deserve to be a part of the discussion. They should not be ignored on issues like health care and Obama's approval.

That said, I think Rasmussen's Republican friendly numbers on things like Obama's approval and health care are more a result of his polling likely voters, presumably for the midterm elections, than an IVR vs. live interviewer thing. We saw last Tuesday that GOP voters are a lot more fired up right now so it's not surprising they're more likely to pass an off year voter screen. We model our monthly national approval polls on a Presidential year electorate because of the 2012 horse race polling we do and we find Obama with numbers more similar to the live interviewer national pollsters than to Rasmussen's. That's a sampling issue rather than a mode issue.

There are good live interviewer polling outfits and bad ones. There are good IVR polling outfits and bad ones (particularly the sort of fly by night ones that aren't a consistent presence on the polling scene.) What I want to see is not for everyone to think that IVR polls are superior, but for people to judge individual polling companies on their actual merits and not how they conduct their interviews.

I'm not sure if that gets to the heart of what you're looking for and if you have any specific questions I'm happy to answer but those are my overall feelings- no individual poll should be treated as if it's the one and only accurate one but all polls with a track record of accuracy, so long as they're transparent about their methodology, deserve to be taken seriously.


If It's Sunday...'Outliers'

Topics: Outliers Feature

Gary Langer goes biblical on dangerous data.

Scott Rasmussen and Douglas Schoen think Obama's numbers among independents will drop further.

Adam Geller (Chris Christie's pollster) joins a DC lobbying/policy firm.

Andrew Gelman examines how much leeway constituents give their representatives. 

Karl Rove thinks Obama's policies will drag down his favorable rating (via Lombardo).

Steve Benen says that Congress getting things done explains the Gallup uptick in Congressional approval.

Chris Bowers puts the latest Gallup results on the national House ballot into the context of other polls.

Nate Silver thinks Democrats should panic "maybe a little."

Jonathan Singer shares yet more generic House ballot numbers by region. 

Mike Barone thinks health care is hurting Democrats in Ohio and Connecticut.

Seth Masket sees little correlation between unemployment and majority party seat loss in the House (via Sides); 

Jed Lewison finds an AP polling report light on polling data.

DesMoinesDem weighs in on the new Des Moines Register Iowa poll. 

The National Journal political insiders and bloggers sound off on whether abortion restrictions in health care reform legislation will help or hurt Democrats.

Lee Rainie and Tom Rosenstiel present 12 ways news consumers have changed in the digital age.

The New York Times graphics wizards create an amazing interactive trend chart of unemployment statistics showing "the jobless rate for people like you."

Hunch crunches data on how food preference varies by ideology (via Scola).


 

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