Pollster.com

I made a similar scatterplot using RCP's numbers and found the same thing: the predictions tended to underestimate both McCain's support in red states and Obama's support in blue states; in the swing states, it was awfully close.

And it's worth noting, by the way, that on the scatterplot, you can consider anything in the upper-left or lower-right quadrant to be a true red-to-blue or blue-to-red "surprise." NC's right on the line, so Indiana's really the only one.

I'm wondering if the high variance in the very blue and very red states was likely a consequence of the relatively few surveys there, thus allowing methodological errors of a few polls to underestimate the results. Of course, I suppose that they could have overestimated the results as well, so it's interesting that they tended to make it more of a "horserace" than it really was.

There's one oddity in the election returns so far. Stevens was 20 down in the recent poll after his conviction and now may have won re-election. Anyone have a reason for this?

I agree with cinnamonape -- the fewer polls (because the state is not a battleground), the less reliable the consensus.

@RWCOLE:

Maybe the Republicans suddenly realized that a vote for Stevens was most likely a vote for a special election (assuming the Senate chucks Stevens out) that might be won by a different R.

I am also curious about the Stevens victory in Alaska. He was down a few points in the polls and if I remember correctly the last poll before the election showed him down about 8-10 points. Did Palin go up to Alaska to help fix the machines. I would like to see exit polls seeing who they voted for and compare it to the result. I smell something here. If he was kicked out of the Senate she could appoint herself Senator a much better position going forward to the 2012 election.

@gerald

I truly doubt there was a conspiracy... I think Alaska is just a particularly idiosyncratic state that is a little more difficult to poll accurately. Particularly when the average Alaskan may feel like the lower 48 are treating them as the butt of some sort of Palin/Stevens/Young joke, they may have just decided to stand up for their fellow Alaskans at the expense of voting for a convicted felon.

One more point - about Georgia. A substantial number of early voter results from Fulton and Gwinnett Counties are still uncounted. That could be as many as 275,000!

http://www.11alive.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=123175&provider=top

zealotus says: "Particularly when the average Alaskan may feel like the lower 48 are treating them as the butt of some sort of Palin/Stevens/Young joke, they may have just decided to stand up for their fellow Alaskans at the expense of voting for a convicted felon."

Hmm, perhaps. But if that's the case it is just going to lead to Alaskans being the butt of even more jokes.