(source)

Ohio

Favorable/Unfavorable
Ted Strickland (D): 42 / 37
Mike DeWine (R): 39 / 22
John Kasich (R): 26 / 7
Kevin Coughlin (R): 5 / 3
.
Job Approval/Disapproval
Gov. Strickland: 46 / 42

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
Kasich 35%, Dewine 32%, Coughlin 3%

2010 Governor: General Election
Strickland 43%, Kasich 38%
Strickland 41%, DeWine 40%

(source)

South Carolina

Based on what you know, should Governor Mark Sanford remain in office? Or resign?

28% Remain in office, 69% Resign

Scott Keeter and his Pew Research Center colleagues review the perils of polling in election 2008.

Stu Rothenberg reviews the perils of reporting on polls.

Carl Bialik considers the limitations of Benford's Law in hunting vote fraud (more on his blog).

Andrew Gelman shares his final thoughts on the Iran vote analyses.

Alex Bratty sees signs of Obama buyer's remorse among independents.

Gary Andres says perceptions of risks will matter more than perceived benefits in health care reform.

Ruy Teixeira argues that Republicans are out of touch on health care.

Mark Mellman says Republicans will pay for opposing clean energy.

David Hill likes contested primaries.

Ben Tulchin sees Gavin Newsome gaining after Antonio Villaraigosa drops out of the CA governor's race.

Greg Sargent notes Republican division on Sotomayor.

Tom Jensen thinks automated surveys are picking up more Sotomayor opposition.

Chris Weigant updates his Obama Poll Watch charts.

John Sides faults Charles Blow for succumbing to an ecological fallacy.

Haaretz reports a new poll showing Hamas popularity falling among Palestinians (via Crowley).

Research Rants reminds web researchers to test their surveys.

Gary Locke taps three Census Bureau veterans to serve as part time advisors.

Survey Practice releases its June issue -- so you can spend the long weekend catching up on the optimal number of scale points for attitudinal questions.

And an Andy Borowitz parody comes disturbingly close to the truth.

(source)

New Hampshire

Favorable / Unfavorable
Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 / 36
Sen. Judd Gregg (R): 53 / 24
Paul Hodes (D): 32 / 23
John Sununu (R): 43 / 38
Charlie Bass (R): 33 / 23
Kelly Ayotte (R): 45 / 8
Frank Tausch (R): 5 / 4

2010 Senate
Ayotte 39%, Hodes 35%
Hodes 43%, Sununu 41%
Hodes 40%, Bass 38%
Hodes 45%, Tausch 25%

(source)

National

2010 House Generic Ballot
Democrat 42%, Republican 34% (chart)

Obama Job Approval
57% Approve, 33% Disapprove (chart)
Dems: 90 / 5 (chart)
inds: 52 / 37 (chart)
Reps: 21 / 66 (chart)

Economy: 52% Approve, 42% Disapprove (chart)
Foreign Policy: 55% Approve, 35% Disapprove (chart)

State of the Country
39% Satisfied, 60% Dissatisfied (chart)
Economy: 8% Excellent/Good, 91% Not So Good/Poor (chart)
Economy: 27% Getting Better, 29% Getting Worse (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Obama: 58 / 30 (chart)
Democratic Party: 42 / 42
Republican Party: 25 / 52

(source)

National

What do you think will happen to the security situation in Iraq now that responsibility for providing security in Iraq's major cities and towns has been transferred form U.S forces to Iraqi security forces?

21% Get better, 58% Get worse

The CNN/ORC poll begins with a very general measure: "From everything you have heard or read so far, do you favor or oppose Barack Obama's plan to reform health care?" They find a "slim majority" (51%) in favor, 45% opposed and 4% unsure.

Let's start with what is hopefully obvious: Democrats in Congress are drafting multiple proposals, and the Obama administration has not specifically endorsed any of these. So a well informed respondent ought to have trouble evaluating "Obama's plan," since Obama has not yet committed to a specific plan. Even more important, very few Americans are following that debate with rapt attention. Last month's CBS/New York Times poll, for example, found only 22% of Americans saying they have heard or read "a lot" about the health care reform proposals (50% said they heard or read "some," 23% not much, 5% nothing).

Notice that when the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll asked a general question about "Obama's health care plan" last month, they offered "no opinion" as an option: "From what you have heard about Barack Obama's health care plan, do you think his plan is a good idea or a bad idea? If you do not have an opinion either way, please just say so."With that option, slightly more than a third (35%) either had no opinion or were unsure. Those with an opinion divided evenly; 33% said it was a good idea, 32% a bad idea.

When pollsters push as hard as CNN/ORC for an answer, a lot of the responses are going to be very soft, often formed on the spot and based on very superficial impressions. Nonetheless, if I were charged with conducting a benchmark survey for a candidate over the next few months, and I had room for only one question about health care reform, I would be tempted to ask a very general question about "President Obama's plan to reform health care" (though I'd strongly lean to the NBC/WSJ version that explicitly prompts for "no opinion").   

Yes, public opinion on health care reform is multi-faceted. Americans come to the debate with a rich set of values and attitudes about what they like and dislike about the health care system, what they would change and what they worry about changing. Most have not yet focused on the details of the legislative debate. Many never will. So questions about specific policy proposals can produce results all over the map. As Slate's Chris Beam puts in an excellent summary this week, "health care polling is especially variable, depending on the wording, the context, and the momentary angle of the sun."

But once a specific health care reform proposal comes up for a vote, members of Congress are going to be intensely interested in the bottom line perceived by their constituents: Do they generally favor or oppose the thing they are about to vote on? Right now, many Americans do not hold strong opinions about whatever they think "Barack Obama's health care plan" is or will be, but those attitudes are likely to deepen and change in the coming months.

In that regard, the comparison provided by CNN Polling Director Keating Holland is helpful:

"In September of 1993, when Bill Clinton was just starting to roll out his ill-fated health care plan, 54 percent said they supported Clinton's ideas on that issue. Today, 51 percent feel the same way about Obama's proposals," Holland said. "That indicates that Obama may have his work cut out for him in the coming months."

CNN also sent out a release this afternoon that includes the complete time series of this question from the 1993-1994 period.  I used it to create the following chart:

Support and opposition is roughly comparable what the CNN/USA Today/Gallup polling partnership found in early 1993, although note that their first two surveys in September 1993 came just before and just after President Clinton delivered a live, prime-time address outlining the specifics of his proposal to a joint session of Congress. Note also that the average "unsure" percentage on the 1993 surveys was 9%, slightly more than double the 4% on the survey released today. CNN's surveys are now fielded by the Opinion Research Corporation (ORC) rather than Gallup, and ORC's interviewers may be pushing slightly harder for answers than Gallup's interviewers were 16 years ago.

Caveats aside, this is a measure worth watching, but be careful to keep it in context: Nearly a third of Americans, when offered the option, say they have no opinion (yet) of Barack Obama's "plans to reform health care."

Update: Nate Silver has more.

(source)

National

The United States Senate has the constitutional authority to confirm all Supreme Court nominees. Based upon what you know at this time, should the United States confirm Sonia Sotomayor as a Supreme Court Justice?
37% Yes, 39% No

(source)

New Jersey

Job Approval
Obama: 61% Approve, 29% Disapprove
Gov. Corzine: 36 / 49

Favorable/Unfavorable
Corzine: 31 / 54
Christie: 34 / 25

2009 Governor
Christie 45%, Corzine 39%

(source)

National

From what you know about the climate change bill that passed the House, do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose it?

37% Favor, 41% Oppose

Will the climate change bill that passed the House of Representatives help the economy, hurt the economy, or have no impact on the economy?

19% Help, 42% Hurt

(source)

National

From everything you have heard or read so far, do you favor or oppose Barack Obama's plan to reform health care?

51% Favor, 45% Oppose

From what you know of the health care reforms which the Administration is working on, do you think the amount you pay for medical care would increase, decrease, or remain the same?

54% Increase, 27% Decrease

(source)

National

Would you be willing or unwilling to pay more in taxes for a health care overhaul plan that reduces health care costs and covers those who don't have health insurance?

49% Willing, 45% Unwilling

Would you support or oppose a new tax on employees for the health care benefits that they receive from their employers?

30% Support, 63% Oppose

Do you support or oppose requiring people to have health insurance?

44% Support, 51% Oppose

Do you support or oppose giving people the option of being covered by a government health insurance plan that would compete with private plans?

69% Support, 26% Oppose

We have discussed some of the challenges posed to our charts on measures like the Obama job performance rating by pollsters whose results show big "house effects" (consistent differences when compared to other pollsters). Our philosophy has always been to try to include all polls that claim to produce representative samples -- even those based on more controversial methods such as automated polls or those that survey respondents over the internet using pre-recruited panels -- to make it possible to use our interactive chart features to compare and contrast different surveys.

The problem is that if big house effects occur, the trend lines can sometimes display phantom trends when polls with consistently different results are more frequent. This issue crops up most often in the "nose" of the trend line, which moves around more than the rest of the line as we add new polls to our database. The Rasmussen Reports surveys appear to be a big problem in this respect, mostly because they are far more numerous. However, if you use your mouse to click on Obama job ratings that tend to be higher or lower than other polls, you will also see pollsters with similar house effects that poll less often.

We offer the new all-adult-sample-only charts as one means of reducing the potential for "phantom" trends, though we have other potential improvements in the works. Please let us know what you think.

PS:  A week or so ago we also broke out party identification in two: one is based on results among all adults, one among surveys of registered or likely voters.

(source: Paterson approval, 2010 Gov, Gillibrand, 2010 Sen, Schumer, Obama)

New York

Job Approval
Gov. Paterson: 21% Excellent/Good, 76% Fair/Poor (chart)
Sen. Gillibrand: 24 / 43 (chart)
Sen. Schumer: 54 / 42 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 63 / 36 (chart)

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
69% Cuomo, 24% Paterson (trend)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
77% Giuliani, 16% Lazio (trend)

2010 Governor: General Election
54% Giuliani, 37% Paterson (chart)
41% Paterson, 40% Lazio (trend)
68% Cuomo, 22% Lazio (trend)
51% Cuomo, 43% Giuliani (chart)

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
Gillibrand 37%, Maloney 28% (trends)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
Pataki 51%, King 36% (trends)

2010 Senate: General Election
Gillibrand 46%, Pataki 42% (chart)
Gillibrand 48%, Peter King 32% (chart)

(source)

National

As you may know, South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford recently admitted that he had committed adultery and reimbursed the state for the cost of a government-funded trip during which he saw the woman with whom he was having an affair. Do you think Sanford should resign his position as Governor, or do you think he should continue to serve as Governor?

54% Resign, 44% Continue to serve

(source)

New Hampshire

Job Approval/Disapproval
Gov. Lynch: 35 / 31 (chart)
Pres. Obama: 51 / 41 (chart)

2010 Senate (trends)
Paul Hodes (D) 40%, John Sununu (R) 34%

(source)

Massachusetts

Job Approval/Disapproval
Obama: 63 / 36
Gov. Patrick: 42 / 57

Favorable/Unfavorable
Patrick: 48 / 51
Christy Mihos (R): 46 / 35
Charlie Baker (R): 37 / 27

2010 Governor
Mihos 41%, Patrick 40%
Patrick 41%, Baker 36%

Unfortunately, Emily's appearance means that we are saying farewell to Eric Dienstfrey after nearly three years of relentless hard work and dedicated service. As announced a few months ago, Eric has been accepted to the Graduate Program in Film Studies at, coincidentally, the University of Wisconsin-Madison's Department of Communication Arts. So he is moving on to bigger and better things.

Sadly, today is officially Eric's last day at Pollster.com. I exaggerate not one bit when I say that the site as you know it would not exist but for his skill and tenacity. We will miss him, but wish him the best of luck in all of his future endeavors.

(Source: Gov, Sen)

Florida

Favorable/Unfavorable
Bill McCollum (R): 29 / 13
Alex Sink (D): 24 / 9
Charlie Crist (R): 49 / 21 (chart)
Marco Rubio (R): 18 / 11
Kendrick Meek (D): 11 / 5

2010 Governor: Democratic Primary
Sink 49%, Michael Arth 4% (trends)

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
McCollum 53%, Paula Dockery 4% (trends)

2010 Governor: General Election
McCollum 41%, Sink 35% (chart)
Sink 43%, Dockery 18% (trend)

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary
Meek 27%, Brown 12% (chart)

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
Crist 51%, Rubio 23% (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
Crist 48%, Meek 26% (chart)
Crist 55%, Brown 24% (trend)