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AR: 2010 Sen Primary Runoff (DFA 5/18)

Topics: Arkansas , poll

Democracy for America* (D) / Research 2000
5/18/10; 500 Democratic Primary Voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(DFA release)

*Democracy for America is a political action committee that has endorsed Halter and solicits contributions to his campaign.

Arkansas

2010 Senate: Democratic Primary Runoff
48% Halter, 46% Lincoln (chart)

 

Comments
Bob in SJ:

I think that most of the Morrison voters will stay home. This is going to be a brutal slugfest between the Unions and the Chamber of Commerce.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

i think the runoff is only between the top 2 vote getters. You would never get 50% in this case if you didn't eliminate the other candidates. Halter can beat her for sure. He has an uphill battle against Boozman. I would say this is the 2nd hardest seat to defend whether it is Lincoln or Halter.

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jmartin4s:

I think Halter will win this and his margin of victory will shock everyone. Blanche is going bye bye.

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JSK2180:

I just read on 538 that Nate Silver thinks this poll is blatantly biased along with Markos and Blumenthal, not known to be "conservatives".

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tjampel:

Perhaps this poll IS biased. It still emphasizes the meme that Blanche is headed South and Halter is moving North. This meme wasn't manufactured; it's clear from the results of the Primary, where Halter did 6-7 points better than his polling numbers indicated.

People who vote against an incumbent (for Morrison, in this case) generally will vote against the incumbent again the second time. If the incumbent's lost their vote already it's hard to get it back. They vote the other challenger or sit it out. It's not like anyone feels terrible moral qualms about not voting in a primary runoff. So, motivated voters will vote and I don't think Blanche has motivated many voters.

Lastly I think people in AR do look at polls and they know that Blanche is toast in the general....no chance at all. Halter has an extreme outside shot; Dem voters aren't masochistic just for the sake of loyalty. They'll cast Lincoln aside and try to win this uphill race in a state which has moved way right in recent years and will probably stay that way. Halter did at least win a statewide race, and isn't an incumbent Washington insider.

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