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AZ: 2010 Sen, Gov (Kos 5/3-5)

Topics: Arizona , Governor , Senate

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
5/3-5/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
400 likely Republican primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Arizona

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
48% McCain, 36% Hayworth (chart)

2010 Senate: General Election
48% McCain, 35% Glassman
43% Hayworth, 42% Glassman

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
32% Brewer, 14% Mills, 13% Martin, 5% Munger

2010 Governor: General Election
48% Goddard, 42% Brewer
47% Goddard, 35% Martin
48% Goddard, 34% Mills
47% Goddard, 30% Munger

Favorable / Unfavorable
John McCain: 43 / 52
J.D Hayworth: 35 / 46
Randy Glassman: 26 / 16
Jan Brewer: 36 / 51
Dean Martin: 28 / 17
Buz Mills: 27 / 20
John Munger: 9 / 15
Terry Goddard: 46 / 25
Barack Obama: 46 / 49

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

My friends, it is possible for Arizona Democrats to unite and beat Mccain my friends.

Glassman has to stick to his guns and have a clear agenda; no flip flopping. He may need some outside help to run against such a high profile senator as Mccain. Beating Mccain in Arizona is probably going to be nearly impossible, but Mccain's unfavorables aren't that great.

If Glassman loses, he can run for the Tea Party. That would be a riot.

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Farleftandproud:

If Glassman doesn't win this time round but runs a good campaign, he may want to prepare a run against John Kyle in 2012.

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Chris V.:

Glassman is not going to beat McCain.

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jamesia:

Damn. Jan Brewer with only 9% support from Latinos against Goddard. The GOP have lost the governorship here... And McCain has always been pretty popular with Latinos, yet now only 10% in this poll? One poll doesn't make data, so I guess we'll see if it's a trend.

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Field Marshal:

Glassman not within 13% on a KOS poll means he, as of now, is toast. Of course, things could change but i would wager bg money that this seat is safe.

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jamesia:

Glassman is doing poorly because only 42% of people have formed an opinion about him. There's plenty of time to change that, for better or worse.

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tjampel:

JD is pretty unpopular overall in AZ (which is why Glassman has a small chance of beating him if they go head to head), but...not with the more rabid elements of the base. They love him They're going to come out and vote for sure.

I wonder how fired up McCain's supporters are right now. He's tried moving right. He's trotted in Sarah and then looked really uncomfortable for being upstaged by her. Do Republicans think McCain represents their future? How authentic is the self-declared maverick who never really was a maverick (according to himself) who was once considered as a possible VP by Kerry and who's now trying to outdo JD as the only true conservative in the race.

Well some sure think that he's their best chance to hold this seat, so that's worth some votes; others respect his services, and old folks (no shortage in AZ!) may still love him. But this is a Primary, and I think voter intensity is going to be with Hayworth.

I think this race is similar to the one between Fisher and Bruner in OH. Brunner was the darling of the activist base of the left and Fisher had all the money and the party on his side. Fisher put up huge numbers in polls leading up to the contest and then won by 10. I think he was up 15-18 points in the final few polls. Hayworth has a lot of time. If he gets to 7-8 he's got a chance, because his base will turn out in higher numbers.

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tjampel:

I was trying to say that some respect McCain for his service to his country

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Field Marshal:

I LOVE ARIZONA! Don't you OL?

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Thaddeus:

I still can't get over Obama has a higher approval rating than McCain in AZ. That's weird. Albeit I haven't looked at the internals.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

actually Obama's numbers are better here than some of the states he won. Let's not forget that AZ probably would have been more competitive if McCain wasn't the nominee. if it was Huckabee or Romney as nominee, Obama might have won this state.

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JMSTiger:

McCain will easily win both the Republican primary and the general election. Brewer is probably done.

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Field Marshal:

I'm kinda disappointed they didn't poll the new immigration law. Well, i bet they did and saw the overwhelming favorability of it and decided not to release it.

I mean, the audacity of AZ to pass a law enforcing US law.

I love Arizona!

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