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Bush Approval: 3 new polls, trend up to 34.9%

Topics: George Bush

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Despite a bad week of Washington news for the administration, President Bush's approval ratings have continued to move modestly upwards over the past week. New polls from Gallup (3/11-14/07, 35% approve/61% disapprove), Zogby (3/7-9/06, 35%/65%) and Bloomberg (3/3-11/07, 38%/60%) all find approval slightly above my previous trend estimate. The result is a small increase in the approval estimate to 34.9%.

See this post for a full explanation of the graphs here.

Note that the recent Bloomberg poll is by Bloomberg alone, not jointly with their usual polling partner, the Los Angeles Times.

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None of the residuals is particularly noteworthy. The low Zogby poll is a previous result, not the most recent which is very close to the trend estimate (and overprinted as a result.)

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The variability of the approval estimate remains within the range of recent estimates.

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Cross-posted at Political Arithmetik.

 

Comments
Milton Grossberg:

One thing I noticed about the latest polls. The number of Don't Know/Other responses is next to nil (4%, 2%, 0%). Is it possible that the uptick is due to different polling techniques which maximize yes/no responses, rather than to an improvement in the President's standing?

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Milton,

The don't know rate is one of the more noticeable "house effects" with a fair bit of variation across polling organizations in how many DKs they produce. So it is certainly possible that this particular batch of surveys just happen to come from pollsters with low DK rates and that these are atypical in some way.

However, that said, most Bush approval polls these days produce fairly low DK numbers (well under 10%) so these are not wildly out of line.

Perhaps I'll take a more systematic look at this questions in a post soon.

Charles

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