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CA: 49% Boxer, 44% Fiorina (Rasmussen 8/24)

Topics: California , poll

Rasmussen
8/24/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

California

2010 Senate
49% Boxer (D), 44% Fiorina (R) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barbara Boxer: 46 / 52 (chart)
Carly Fiorina: 46 / 42

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 55 / 43 (chart)
Gov. Schwarzenegger: 26 / 69 (chart)

 

Comments
Bob in SJ:

This shows that the Survey USA poll was an outlier. Same margin as last time, fewer undecided.

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ath716:

Without leaners, the race is 43% Fiorina, 44% Boxer.

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Field Marshal:

Will those 'leaners' show up at the polls? In order for Fiorina to win, they must not. She has to disenchant them from doing so.

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Bob in SJ:

@FM

Isn't it better whne more voters are involved in the process? It would be better if Fiorina tried to find unactivated voters than to attempt to suppress the vote.

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Dave:

Thought this was a good ad:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KGufmtf1Pco&feature=player_embedded

Not sure it will work in California though.

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nick283:

Bob: It is better to a point. People who don't pay attention at all and have no idea what they are voting on? Those ones can stay home. didnt direct this at either party by the way.

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vincent106:

@bob

It isn't better. When you try to get everyone to vote including all the young, the unintelligent, and people who vote like its an american idol contest, you end up with a president Obama.

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Farleftandproud:

Yes, the actual web site had boxer up by 1. Seemed strange since it said she was leading among independents.

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Farleftandproud:

Fiorina on the issues is way too conservative for California. I think in this environment the other candidate who lost in the primary, might have won. Fiorina is much closer to Sarah palin than she is Scott Brown. She is anti-choice, anti civil Unions, and probably has changed her mind on immigration and pot legalization in order to get elected.

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Bob in SJ:

@ Nick

I think that the uninformed eventually cancel each other out. As a philosophy, I am for increasing access to the franchise. For example, I assume you think that it's a good thing that the right to vote was expanded to women, even if those women were less informed and less educated than their male counterparts at the time of the 19th amendment's passing? The same thing could be said of ex-slaves at the end of the civil war. I support the idead of increasing access and participation for groups that have lower access to voting. Again, not a knock on either party - not everybody has to vote (we aren't Austraila), but we shouldn't dicourage people from voting.

What do you think?

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Bob in SJ:

@ Vincent

Plenty of idiotd voted for McCain because of Palin. Fools populate both parties.

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Field Marshal:

Bob,

I would agree with you but in every election, an attempt is made by candidates to demoralize their opponents from voting by providing evidence that the candidate they are leaning towards isn't congruent with their values/stance on the issues.

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Bob in SJ:

@ FM

That is true. And a bit depressing. Yet if one side didn't do it, the other would have a campetative advantage, so that's why it happens, I suppose.

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nick283:

Of course we shouldnt actively tell people not to vote or try to get them not to. Was just saying it doesnt always improve things to have greater participation.

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Farleftandproud:

I like Australlia where not voting gets you a fine, or what about a tax rebate for casting your ballot? I mean people could get a 2 percent reduction on income tax for voting and be given a voucher after they have voted.

It isn't ever going to be put into law in this country but, who knows, if the GOP tries to change or alter the constitution, if I can't beat them, I'll join them.

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Dave:

"I like Australlia where not voting gets you a fine"

You would.

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HookedOnPolls:

Australia is looking better all the time as place to move to as we slide toward socialism.

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Farleftandproud:

Karl Rove's henchmen and 527 groups are spending millions on attack ads against Boxer. I love it how Karl Rove, the great liar and deciever and Bush's brain or Bush's Joseph Goebels, is now running attack ads in parts of California.

Boxer hasn't tried to run against Bush, but lets face it, Bush lost Ca twice by nearly 20 points, so keep it up Rove. I am sure he'll be very instrumental.

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Farleftandproud:

Hooked on Polls: Australia is way more socialist than us. The rich pay their fare share of Taxes and the middle classes get far more breaks depending on their family size.

America is about as neanderthal as you can get when it comes to this fear of socialism. That is why we rank at the bottom in literacy, healthcare, education, and poverty rate of any industrialized country.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"People who don't pay attention at all and have no idea what they are voting on?"

I've seen poli sci research that shows the less informed people actually make the more "correct" choice more often than those in tune with politics. By correct I mean they tend to intuitively choose the candidate that fits their values most closely.

Well-informed voters tend to be the ones that rationalize their choice. Well-informed voters are likely to be partisans with a 90% chance of replicating their past voter behavior regardless of the current context. They know more about the candidates' positions on the issues but they vote the same way as last time.

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CompCon:

Sometimes I think people should have to pass a basic competancy test in order to vote. We've gotten to the point where elections seem to be nothing more than a big marketing campaign. It's like we are selling elected officials as if they are a soft drink. The people with the best advertising campaigns win.

Drink Sprite - refreshing
Drink Coke - that real cola taste
Drink Pepsi - for a new generation
Be cool - be a pepper too

I know a competancy test is unrealistic but it would be nice if the voters had at least a little understanding of how government works and what the candidate they plan to vote for plans to do if elected. Right now, 50% of the voters are pulling the lever based on a slogan that will fit on a bumper sticker.

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Cyril Washbrook:

I don't normally wade into the political debate here - I come here for commentary on polling and statistics - but as an Australian I'll briefly make an intervention to confirm that if you want to judge a country by how "socialist" it allegedly is, we are indisputably "more socialist" than the US.

Here in Australia, the highest marginal income tax rate is 45%, plus a 1.5% Medicare levy. This marginal rate kicks in at $180,000. Speaking of Medicare, we have a publicly funded universal health care system. And our federal minimum wage is $15.00 per hour.

Naturally, Australia is a very different country from the United States, and has had a different historical context. When I discuss American politics, I put my own country's context to one side. But I would like to note that I - and indeed, most Australians - don't feel oppressed by our high standard of living, governmental health assistance, high labour force participation, progressive tax rates, and labour standards protections.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"I would like to note that I - and indeed, most Australians - don't feel oppressed by our high standard of living, governmental health assistance, high labour force participation, progressive tax rates, and labour standards protections."

Cyril:

Thanks. I wish more Americans thought that way. But as you say, different context.

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