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CNN/TIME: NV, NC, OH, VA, WV (10/19-21)

Topics: PHome

CNN / TIME / ORC
10/19-21/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)

Nevada 700 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 46

North Carolina 644 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47

Ohio 737 LV, 3.5%
Obama 50, McCain 46

Virginia 647 LV, 4%
Obama 54, McCain 44

West Virginia 674 LV, 4%
McCain 53, Obama 44

 

Comments
mysticlaker:

Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 46
North Carolina: Obama 51, McCain 47
Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 46
Virginia: Obama 54, McCain 44
West Virginia: McCain 53, Obama 44

Just wanted the full list...

Praise Jesus!

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Hoosier:

This is more in line with other WV polls than the one from earlier today. I think Obama can make it close, but I think WV stays red on election night.

Very impressive VA numbers and in line with the trend.

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drinkwine247:

Praise JEEEEBUS!

Don't let drudge see this set of polls!!!!

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

WOW WHAT A DAY FOR POLLS!

FOX 10/20-21/08 936 LV 40 49 +9D
Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby 10/19-21/08 1214 LV 42 52 +10D
DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 10/19-21/08 1100 LV 41 51 +10D
Rasmussen 10/19-21/08 3000 LV 45 51 +6D
Gallup 10/19-21/08 2331 LV 44 52 +8D
ABC/Post 10/17-20/08 1324 LV 44 53 +9D
NBC/WSJ 10/17-20/08 1159 RV 42 52 +10D
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16-20/08 773 LV 42 50 +8D

Nevada: Obama 51, McCain 46
North Carolina: Obama 51, McCain 47
Ohio: Obama 50, McCain 46
Virginia: Obama 54, McCain 44
West Virginia: McCain 53, Obama 44
PA: Obama 52, McCain 41

Not to get all Chris Matthewsy on you, but I'm getting this feeling...

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NB:

This can't be good for McCain's anger levels.

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IWillWorkHarder:

Where's that PA poll from, NYCREALAMERICAN?

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boomshak:

It's CNN/Time. Does anymore need to be said?

I mean, are there two MSM's any more in the tank for Obama than these two?

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mysticlaker:

Praise Boomshak!!!!!!

Always a good sense of humour!!!!!

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MDB1974:

Good news for sure. Hold on tight, it is going to be a wild ride.

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mysticlaker:

Praise BOOMSHAK - He has figured out that BOTH foxnews and cnn are in the tank for obama!!!!!!!!!!!


Praise Boomshak!

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Mike A.:

PA Poll is from Mullenberg or something like that :) should be on the list earlier today :)

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boomshak:

PEW RESEARCH: BLATANT MEDIA BIAS EXPOSED:

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1001/campaign-media

The media coverage of the race for president has not so much cast Barack Obama in a favorable light as it has portrayed John McCain in a substantially negative one, according to a new study of the media since the two national political conventions ended.

Press treatment of Obama has been somewhat more positive than negative, but not markedly so.

But coverage of McCain has been heavily unfavorable -- and has become more so over time. In the six weeks following the conventions through the final debate, unfavorable stories about McCain outweighed favorable ones by a factor of more than three-to-one -- the most unfavorable of all four candidates -- according to the study by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism.

For Obama during this period, just over a third of the stories were clearly positive in tone (36%), while a similar number (35%) were neutral or mixed. A smaller number (29%) were negative.

For McCain, by comparison, nearly six-in-ten stories studied were decidedly negative in nature (57%), while fewer than two-in-ten (14%) were positive.

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Trosen:

comments are back.. I can exhale..

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CTPonix4BHObama:

This just in: 150,000 in dresses and makeup originally bought for Rudy Giulianni by RNC, donated to Palin after VP pick.

Are posts working now?

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Guailo:

PRAISE DOUCHESHAK!!!!

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rami:

To put thinks in perspective :)

Nevada 700 LV, 3.5%
Obama 51, McCain 46 +5
'04 : Kerry 48 bush 51 -3
blue only for clinton (twice), otherwise red since '68

North Carolina 644 LV, 4%
Obama 51, McCain 47 +4
'04 : Kerry 44, Bush 46 -2
didn't go blue since '76

Ohio 737 LV, 3.5%
Obama 50, McCain 46 +4
'04 : Kerry 49 Bush 51 -2
Blue in '76, '92, '96

Virginia 647 LV, 4%
Obama 54, McCain 44 +10
'04 : Kerry 46 Bush 54 -8 !
Red ever since '68

West Virginia 674 LV, 4%
McCain 53, Obama 44 -9
'04 : Kerry 43 Bush 56 -13
Red in y2k and 2004

If you average out the 5 states, there is a ~8 point swing.

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jme:

Huh...the two most recent Zogby Internet polls are exerting quite the pull on the trend line at the moment. Most other times I've checked removing them doesn't change things _that_ much.

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boomshak:

Mason Dixon has this O+2 in VA today. Small difference than the silly +10 here.

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RaleighNC:

Internals, please!

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MichaelJason:

LMAO !

I can't believe poor Boomshak.

I can really understand his frustration. I too was in that boat, but not delusional in 2004. I was worried about Kerry and didn't discredit any pollsters because Kerry ran an abysmal campaign, although I did like him and voted for him.

I will offer some advice though. Breathe deeply and prepare for defeat Boomshak. We can't always get what we want.

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Shaft:

Great news, although there were some suspect polls throughout the day.
McCain can have the WV HillJacks!

P.S.
I am going to ask Michelle Bachmann to investigate this site for being un-American!

Death to the Infidels, B*tches!

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political_junki:

@boomshak:
I know bu now that you know that McCain has lost and you just dont want to shut the door: Hence the bull****ting about McCain surge.
But if you really want to learn something so in the next election you dont have a ***ZERO PERCENT*** correct prediction rate read this about the GFK/AP Poll:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

REMEMBER BOOMSHAK : IN THIS ELECTION YOU HAVE HAD ZERO CORRECT PREDICITON SO FAR AND YOU HAVE MADE MORE THAN 50 STARTING FROM THE ROMNEY WIN IN THE PRIMARY. TALK LESS, EDUCATE YOURSELF MAN!

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mysticlaker:

You want to be shocked. Look at the RV numbers from the internals...Holy moly. No wonder Obama is putting all the effort into GOTV.

http://www.time.com/time/timecnnpoll/topstate9.pdf

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political_junki:

boom:
"Mason Dixon has this O+2 in VA today. Small difference than the silly +10 here."

First of all last DIXON poll gave McCain +2 so it is a 5% move towards Obama
Second: Rassmussen (The one pollster you loved yesterday since it gave Obama only +4) has Obama +10 in VA...


REMEMBER BOOMSHAK : IN THIS ELECTION YOU HAVE HAD ZERO CORRECT PREDICITON SO FAR AND YOU HAVE MADE MORE THAN 50 STARTING FROM THE ROMNEY WIN IN THE PRIMARY. TALK LESS, EDUCATE YOURSELF MAN!

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Oldy75:

I agree with Boom, clearly the "MSM" is in the tank for Obama and every poll that is released is part of a broad conspiracy to cover up the fact that McCain is leading by double digits in every battleground state and has at least a 20 point lead nationally. I bet that don't even release the internals on these polls, they probably polled all illegal aliens, because without the internals what is to stop this conspiracy from releasing bogus polls. Okay deep breathe, Boom after you continuing bouts with verbal diarrhea you need to ask yourself the following question, HEY BUDDY, WHO ARE YOU CRAPPING?

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mysticlaker:

Praise Boomshak!

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Guailo:

@ Boomshak...

well, I guess that is what you get when you run a negative, deceitful, hate-inspiring campaign.

Thank goodness for Youtube, and the ability to see through all of the lies and fascist propaganda coming out of the GOP...

Get used to it. This country is finally changing.

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UpstateProgressive:

I love how the Obama campaign has handled Virginia. They took a state that hadn't voted for a Dem since 1964, but showed a recent Democratic trend, and they're turning it into a solid blue state.

If the polls hold, VA will have a Dem governor, 2 Dem senators, and at least one Dem state legislative house, along with casting potentially decisive electoral votes for a Dem president.

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Trosen:

The uhh.. "negative" coverage wouldn't have anything to do with McCain and Pailin's mob-inducing, not-so-subtle race-baiting, and overall nasty, vicious divisive desperate excuse for a campaign, would it?

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mac7396:

These polls don't favor McCain, so per Boom logic they are outliers. Hopefully, the AP will do some polls of these states. This is what the results might look like:
NV M-84 O-5
NC M-110 O- -6
OH M-99 O-0
VA M-75 Boomshak-25
WV Pollsters gave up after overwhelming M support.

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alankeyesisawesome:

Doesn't look very good for the Obama Campaign according to their internal polling. And the AP poll just released has Obama trembling in his boots. Glad the American people are finally coming to their senses.

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Oldy75:

You know how you fight Negative coverage, by staging positive events and using positive ads. McCain needs to fire everyone again and return to the Straight Talk Express and go back to what has worked for him in the past.

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NYCREALAMERICAN:

Wait wait wait wait wait!!! Did anyone else notice that BO was leading in most of these polls? Clearly they can't be right. They are more in the tank for him than FOX - who had BO up by 9 today and up 10 in VA yesterday. FOX - we know they are in the tank for BO and skewing these results.

I know you don't like it - neither do I but we should listen to Boom. Rasmussen is the only pollster that is trusted. Ras says BO is only up 6 - that's pretty close, and in VA BO is ....what ...are you kidding?...fine O+10.

Now let's take a look at NC, CO and MO....

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thunkaboudit:

Seriously. DUH. Maybe if McCain was running an honorable campaign he'd be getting positive coverage.

Isn't there an acronym fitting for this behavior and results? SISO anyone? $h#t in $h#t out.

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vercordio:

I do wish the sample sizes were a bit bigger, but then I hate to be negative in the face of such awesome, awesome numbers.

V.

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angrytoxicologist:

@ Boomshak

Just a thought experiment for you: What if we had one candidate that was much better than the other, should there still be equal positive press? Shouldn't the reporting reflect how the public felt about it?

[ducking from the fallout from Boom's head exploding]

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mac7396:

Stupid Dow down another 500pts. How is McCain supposed to get people focused on important issues like Bill Ayers, when the economy just won't cooperate and go away?

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BrookLynda:

I'll have what Boomshak is drinking.

Want to see the pretty colors...

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ChuckInSeattle:

Hey, there's a new one from South Dakota yesterday! It's tightening there too.

http://www.argusleader.com/article/20081021/UPDATES/81021078

"John McCain leads Barack Obama by 7 percentage points - a 48-41 advantage, according to an Argus Leader Media/KELO-TV poll of 800 registered voters. The statewide poll taken between Oct.13-15 showed 8 percent of voters undecided with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

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Oldy75:

Keyes your crack me up.

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zotz:

Calm down everybody! The only poll that matters is the one on Nov. 4. If boom wants to be boom just ignore him. He craves attention. If you want to upset him don't respond to him.

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Darwin Please:

@Boomshak

Would you please make a post on November 5th with your post election analysis of your predictions?

;-)

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ChuckInSeattle:

Hey, there's a new one from South Dakota yesterday! It's tightening there too.

http://www.argusleader.com/article/20081021/UPDATES/81021078

"John McCain leads Barack Obama by 7 percentage points - a 48-41 advantage, according to an Argus Leader Media/KELO-TV poll of 800 registered voters. The statewide poll taken between Oct.13-15 showed 8 percent of voters undecided with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points."

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mago:

@rami

Bush got 56 in NC in 2004, not 46. So the improvement for BHO is greater than you show.

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IndependentThinker:

@boom****

"It's CNN/Time. Does anymore need to be said?

I mean, are there two MSM's any more in the tank for Obama than these two?"


Ras shows the same support for Obama in Va, is Ras in the tank for Obama?
Another spin

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/21 -- -- 51.5 44.5 Obama +7.0
NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/20 - 10/21 625 LV 4.0 47 45 Obama +2
CNN/Time 10/19 - 10/21 647 LV 4.0 54 44 Obama +10
SurveyUSA 10/18 - 10/19 652 LV 3.9 51 45 Obama +6
Rasmussen 10/16 - 10/16 700 LV 3.0 54 44 Obama +10

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dominoid:

Those looking for good internals. CNN never releases them.

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alankeyesisawesome:

On the subject of young voters, it looks like the educational system has failed our children if students are voting for Obama over McCain. I would remind them that if their mothers had made the decision to abort them, that they could not be standing in line waiting to vote. This is why they cannot embrace the pro-abortion stances of Obama and Biden, who enable murder on a daily basis on the millions of the unborn.

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JCK:

@MichaelJason:

Good point on 2004. I remember being convinced by the "youth turnout" and "cell phone only voter" arguments in 2004 that the polls were missing a bunch of invisible Kerry voters. Couldn't bring myself to believe that Bush would actually win again.

But in 2004, the RCP poll averages nailed every state except WI, which was extremely close in the end.

I expect that, on the whole, the pollsters know what they're doing (with some exceptions), and that if you're going to second guess, you'd better have some damn good reasons to be doing so (i.e., a better reason than "CNN is in the tank for Obama.")

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m913:

Frankly, boomshak is probably correct that the recent mainstream media has been overwhelmingly negative about McCain. But it is still fair, because the McCain campaign truly has been bad recently. Even boomshak would agree with that. They are just reporting the news—McCain’s campaign has been terrible, and the polls reflect that.

Moreover, it is appropriate that Obama get favorable press. After all, he will be our next president, and a certain amount of respect should be shown. To do otherwise would be unpatriotic and un-American.

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JCE:

McCain brought this negative media on himself. He adopted the type of campaign he told the MSM he hated. He picked a VP candidate no one thinks he will even talk to after the election (win or lose!). He turned into the type of neo-con he was famous for butting heads with. The MSM know him well and they also know he sold himself out. I think the voters see some that too. He might not have won running as McCain 2000 either but the press would have been 10x better and the election a lot closer.

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Incumbent:

@boom

I saw that Pew article today too, which confused me quite a bit considering that I saw this article yesterday:
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-onthemedia27-2008jul27,0,6802141.story

"The Center for Media and Public Affairs at George Mason University, where researchers have tracked network news content for two decades, found that ABC, NBC and CBS were tougher on Obama than on Republican John McCain during the first six weeks of the general-election campaign.

You read it right: tougher on the Democrat.

During the evening news, the majority of statements from reporters and anchors on all three networks are neutral, the center found. And when network news people ventured opinions in recent weeks, 28% of the statements were positive for Obama and 72% negative.

Network reporting also tilted against McCain, but far less dramatically, with 43% of the statements positive and 57% negative, according to the Washington-based media center."


So what gives, boomie???

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boomshak:

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Factchecker Says Obama Stretches Truth

The Washington Post’s Michael Dobbs argues in his latest political “Factchecker” column that Barack Obama is misleading voters about John McCain’s health care plan in a new ad targeted to seniors.

A narrator in Obama's ad, titled "Your Golden Years" asks, " "How would your Golden Years turn out under John McCain? His healthcare plan would cut Medicare by $800 billion. That means a 22% cut in benefits. Higher premiums and co-pays. More expensive prescription drugs. Nursing home care could suffer. After a lifetime of work, seniors' healthcare shouldn't be a gamble. Senator McCain's plan? It's not the change we need."

Dobbs said McCain may be "wildly optimistic in believing that he can find sufficient savings in Medicare and Medicaid to pay for his promised refundable health care tax credit. But that criticism also applies to Obama who is relying on similar cost cuts to fund his health care plan".

“It is a huge stretch for the Obama campaign to argue that the McCain plan will inevitably result in an $800 billion cut in Medicare programs over 10 years, or a ‘22 percent cut’ in benefits paid to American seniors,” Dobbs concluded.

UTTER BULLSH*T, BROUGHT TO YOU BY TEAM OBAMA. AREN'T YOU PROUD?


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PortlandRocks:

McCain/Palin/Republicans closed down more than 500 points in the DOW today. :(

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PortlandRocks:

Boom PROMISE me babe you will be here Nov. 4th! PLEASE!

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BrookLynda:

Boomcrack: McCain used to call the press corps his "base" and they were famously in the tank for him until recently. For him to receive such highly negative coverage from people who are predisposed to like him, what does that tell you?

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rami:

@mago :
you're right (hawk eye!).

Then I correct my stastement

If you average out the 5 states, there is a ~10 point swing.
:-)

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PortlandRocks:

It tells me McCain made a HUGE mistake taunting the press. It opened up the narrative that his campaign was hijacked by the Carl Rover operatives. SMART MOVE GRANDPA!

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political_junki:

@BOOM
As if McCain hasnt had misleading Ads. As if Republicans havnt won elections before based on lies?
Coming from you, the master of spinning, trolling and misleading, it is very rich :)

Politics is the second name for misleading, as if you or your conservative friends didnt know it or havnt been practcing it for the last 50 years.

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Incumbent:

@boom

Hopefully you know that I can go to FactCheck or Politifact or CNN's Truth Squad and cherry-pick enough McCain lies to fill this entire thread.

Everyone who has paid any significant attention to this election is well aware that BOTH sides have released an endless stream of ads that stretch the facts and/or outright lie.

So really, what's the point of posting ONE example from ONE side and expecting anyone to care?

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Michael:

"But coverage of McCain has been heavily unfavorable -- and has become more so over time. In the six weeks following the conventions through the final debate, unfavorable stories about McCain outweighed favorable ones by a factor of more than three-to-one -- the most unfavorable of all four candidates -- according to the study by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism."

You act like negative coverageis a sign of bias, rather than merely covering his wholly negative and flailing campaign. If a reporter were to say "the sky is blue," would you demand someone give the opposite position solely for the sake of "balance," or would you rather they just report the facts?

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kerrchdavis:

Remember boomshaks "Romney will beat McCain"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "surge"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "tied race by Sunday?" fail.
Remember boomshaks "suspending McCains campaign is brilliant"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain will look like he saved the economy by going back to Washington"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "attack Obama on Ayers is the way to go"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain will destroy Obama in the debates"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain won the first debate"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain won the second debate"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "McCain won the third debate"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "Palin is an awesome pick"? fail.
Remember boomshaks "I have the gold question that will destroy Obama" which had already been answered? fail.

Pathetic. Epic Fail.

How can 1 person be wrong about EVERYTHING?

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Incumbent:

But then, what's the point of arguing with boom either? ;-)

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tjampel:

Amazing how the same poll seen through two different sets of eyes can convey diametrically opposed info.

For those polling neophytes (e.g. Boomshak) the important thing to watch isn't house bias, it's coherency in the poll's own upwards and downwards movment taking into account its sample size.

Therefore when reliably republican-leaning Mason-Dixon shows Obama gaining a net of +5 in VA (O +3, M -2) compared to its previous poll (9.29-10.01) only a fool would say "that's more like it". CNN/Time, on the other hand shows no change whatsoever in the spread (O +10). In fact for three weeks CNN has shown nearly the same spread.

The only reasonable interpretation for these two sets of results is that Mason Dixon shows positive movement towards Obama outside of MOE and CNN's three latest polls are all consistent. If CNN/Time has a house effect of about 2.5 (that's pretty huge amongst pollsters) then Obama is up around 7.5. If Mason Dixon's house effect is around 2 (my own belief based on their previous polls and comments of other pollsters including Nate) then Obama is up around 4. Average these two together and you get 5.75.

Given Obama's GOTV and a Dem Gov and ultrapopular Senate candidate (Warner) and expected enthusiasm, new registrations, etc. 5.75 looks vast to me.

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MDB1974:

@kerrch
It takes skill and discipline to be so consistent.

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boomshak:

DO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY OBAMA IS GOING TO LOSE:

Now that it is time to vote, Americans are going to wake up and say to themselves:

"My God, do I REALLY want to vote for a Socialist?"

McCain should say:

"You know what the used to call Russia? The USSR, that is the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics..."

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kerrchdavis:

Can someone tell me? please? Portland? Political?
How can 1 person be WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING?

Even a complete fool would have gotten 1 prediction right by now.

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Oldy75:

Boom,

Nice copy and paste job. We are all impressed with how rather than having an original thought you instead just copy and paste.

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alankeyesisawesome:

McCain has made definite inroads in PA due to him refocusing his campaign there..we should see more polls from there in order to reinforce this fact that we're already aware of. I know Mullenberg released a poll earlier, but it would be good to see one from an unbiased source, as it didn't reflect the gains.

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sempervirens:

Pew reports that negative stories about McCain greatly outnumber positive stories, while Obama breaks pretty evenly across the board. . . .

Gee. . . I wonder. . .might it be the media are simply reporting what they see and hear???

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Boris_Dieter:

@boomshak

The reason that the media coverage of McCain has been negative is because he selected an incompetent as his running mate and because he's dug further and further into the slime to compete. His various suspensions of his campaign, along with his economic plans/minute couldn't be described accurately without being negative. After all, sometimes a pig is a pig, no matter whether it's got lipstick or is from Alaska. It's not as if McCain has been running a high-minded, clever campaign. Negative is as negative does.

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kerrchdavis:

Even if a chimp with brain damage was TRYING to intentionally make bad predictions, it would have gotten one right by now by accident.

Why is boomshak wrong about EVERYTHING?

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joethedummer:

boomcrack is a cancer to the board!

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political_junki:

@BOOM:
"DO YOU WANT TO KNOW WHY OBAMA IS GOING TO LOSE"

If you think Obama is going to lose, Go buy McSame in the intrade :)))
You know why you wont?
You are a lier and a troll.

REMEMBER BOOMSHAK : IN THIS ELECTION YOU HAVE HAD ZERO CORRECT PREDICITON SO FAR AND YOU HAVE MADE MORE THAN 50 STARTING FROM THE ROMNEY WIN IN THE PRIMARY. TALK LESS, EDUCATE YOURSELF MAN!

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sempervirens:

I mean --- seriously --- get so tired of the right-wing whining about lefty media bias. . .
. . .as if GE and Disney and News Corp (fer cryin' out loud) are communist fronts. . .

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MDB1974:

In 2000 McCain opposed the Bush measures that he now call Obama a socialist for repealing. McCain (and Obama to be fair) also backed the single most socialist action of the federal government in our history. 700 billion. On top of that he proposed another 300 billion for the banks.

Who is the socialist?

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joethedummer:

@ alankeyesisawesome:

obama signs out number mcsame 4-1 here in lancaster pa, its over my firend!

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kerrchdavis:

EVERY SINGLE PREDICTION BY BOOMSHAK: wrong.

If he predicted that the Sun was going to rise in the east tomorrow, I would have to doubt it.

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MDB1974:

Fox news published and article several months ago. Basically, it claimed, conservatives are less stressed than libs because of their ability to "rationalize." It elaborated, if a lib sees a problem he feels he needs to respond, therefore it becomes a stress, but conservatives can rationalize it a way.

Hey Boom, are you a conservative?

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Washingtonian1:

CNN's likely voter models are way off base. They fail to properly account for an expanded electorate, as Gallup has done. Essentially, they assume enthusiasm and turnout will favor McCain, reflected in smaller margins for Obama among likely favors as compared to registered voters. Huh?

The people are fivethirtyeight elaborate on this problem: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html

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alankeyesisawesome:

@joethedummer

But what about in the conservative parts of the state?

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Incumbent:

socialism: any of various economic and political theories advocating collective or governmental ownership and administration of the means of production and distribution of goods

And this describes Obama's tax cut proposal HOW exactly?

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M2:

Given the current status of the polling and the momentum Obama's enjoying in certain key states, I'm thinking that on Nov. 4 Obama will have 235 EVs called for him by the time the polls close along the Pacific. That doesn't count Ohio and Florida, which I'm guessing will be too close to call until later and, ultimately, unimportant in deciding the winner.

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BrookLynda:

Boom: if Obama is a socialist then was McCain a socialist back before he flip-flopped, when he opposed the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy?

____________________

PortlandRocks:
____________________

oicu:

boomy, you're gettin' a bit rabid, ol' son. Calm down. Have a beer. This can't be good for your blood pressure. Seriously, we wouldn't want you popping off before election day, would we?

____________________

countrymous3:

Here we go guys! Boomshak's election prediction track record in his own words! (all comments by 'boomshak' at anklebitingpundits.com)


On the 2006 Mid-term elections:

"This season will go down in history as the WORST,
MOST INNACURATE POLLING OF ALL TIME."
--boomshak, Oct 2006

"This will be a status quo election. Dem's will
pick up some seats, but take no control anywhere."
--boomshak, Oct 2006


Hmm 0 for 1. Maybe he did better predicting the outcome of the Republican primary (he was backing Romney)?

"McCain, the poster boy for RINO’s will NEVER win
the Republican Nomination. It is just impossible."
--boomshak Oct. 2006


So, what does Boomshak actually think of candidate McCain?

"I have many conservative friends in my circle
and we all detest him."
--boomshak Nov. 2006


Bonus round! Boomshak speculates on the 'optics' of an upcoming Romney/McCain debate:

"...for you the scary thing will be when Romney
(tall, brilliant, good-looking, well-spoken with
a great voice and smile) gets on stage during a
debate with McCain (old, exhausted, white-
haired, cancer-faced RINO with the charisma of
my grandfather sleeping in his big chair after
Christmas dinner)"
--boomshak, Jan. 2007


You stay classy, Boomshak.

____________________

venpry:

@Boomshak

Nice job cherry picking the Pew article.

You left out the most important paragrpah:

"One question likely to be posed is whether these findings provide evidence that the news media are pro-Obama. Is there some element in these numbers that reflects a rooting by journalists for Obama and against McCain, unconscious or otherwise? The data do not provide conclusive answers. They do offer a strong suggestion that winning in politics begets winning coverage, thanks in part to the relentless tendency of the press to frame its coverage of national elections as running narratives about the relative position of the candidates in the polls and internal tactical maneuvering to alter those positions. Obama's coverage was negative in tone when he was dropping in the polls, and became positive when he began to rise, and it was just so for McCain as well. Nor are these numbers different than those we have seen before. Obama's numbers are similar to what we saw for John Kerry four years ago as he began rising in the polls, and McCain's numbers are almost identical to those recorded eight years ago for Democrat Al Gore."

Also, do you really think Dobbs critiquing campaign claims holds any water with anyone other than the Republican base?

____________________

CheckRaise72:

Is it me, or have a lot of states on this map now become infected with these randomly off Zogby internet polls.

I've been tracking state averages for weeks and now it seems that most of the state averages are now useless.

____________________

maddiekat:

I have said it for months Ras is the one to keep an eye on. He has the largest sample size and he has shown a very consistant race. That being said the only way McCain can win is winning PA. If I was Obama I would have the Clintons in PA from now until Nov 4th.

____________________

lilyogini:

@alankeyesisawesome

Um, I'm fairly certain that Lancaster IS pretty conservative. My husband is from central PA and it's not like Philly. My in-laws are in a "conservative" part of PA and are voting Obama. Two people who voted for Bush in '04.

____________________

johncoz:

So-called negative coverage of McCain is the direct result of his shambolic campaign. Schmidt cut McCain off from the press ("his base") and then in collusion with Davis has abandoned any sense of strategy in favour of a series of cynical tactical moves.

This tactics-based approach has created a whirlwind of incoherence around any message McCain may have had. And to top it off, virtually all the highest risk moves have been spectacular failures, of which the prime example is picking Palin to energize the base while thoroughly alienating everyone else. eg this exchange from CNN with Florida's Republican Governor Crist:
I asked Crist if he thought Palin was going to lure undecided voters to the ticket.
"I think we both know the answer to that," he said.

____________________

Oldy75:

Boom,

If you took the Socialist tack it would be easy to defuse, it would go something like this:

John McCain is calling Barrack Obama a socialist, but does that mean he considers Dwight D Eisenhower, JFK, LBJ, Richard M Nixon, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter socialist as well? In 1952 the top bracket tax rate was 92% and continued until 1964 at 91% or above. In 1964 it was lowered to 77% and then to 70% in 1965 and remained above 50% until 1987(source http://www.truthandpolitics.org/top-rates.php). Barrack Obama wants to raise the top tax bracket to 38. Is this Socialism, for if so aren't some of our greatest presidents also Socialists?

____________________

SoloBJ:

With regard to PA, if Obama believed he was only up 2 points, he wouldn't need Rendell to "beg" him to come back to PA... he would have been there already.

I believe Obama and possibly the Clintons will show face in PA again but not because of some 2 point internal poll that more than likely doesn't exist.. for now anyway.

____________________

dominoid:

ABC News Daily Tracker

Obama - 54
McCain - 43

Details here

____________________

Stonecreek:

ABC-WaPo is just out with Obama increasing lead among LVs by two to 54-43.

____________________

OGLiberal:

Rasmussen only has McCain ahead by 8 in Kentucky, 52-44. Obama WILL NOT win KY but that's much closer than I expected.

____________________

kerrchdavis:

And the socialism argument is done. A video came out today of McCain, while running in 2000, saying it's not a bad idea to tax the wealthy who can afford it to help out the middle class.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTZaM2Xh-S8

____________________

bill kapra:

ABC/Post tracker 54-43 !!!

____________________

PortlandRocks:

I was thinking this myself as of late. Can you imagine what this campaign looks like to NON RACIST, educated youth around the country? Think they'll side with Republicans? From the Forbes article I linked in an earlier post:

"The upshot of all this is that the Republicans have a lot more to fear now than Barack Obama or losing this one election. Most immediately, the Republican Party has to be afraid that swing voters and the moderate voices within its own ranks are growing afraid of the Republican Party. Longer term, they have to be even more worried that they are turning off a whole generation of young voters by clinging to the outdated remnants of Nixon's Southern strategy. Indeed, the millennials are not just flocking to Obama--they are registering as Democrats by overwhelming margins. And by all indications, tired tropes about taxes and terrorists are just not going to put them back in play."

____________________

straight talk:

The Pa noise is nonsense! It is a head fake and the McCain Camp took the BAIt. Remember that Obama is a skilledfull Politician.He new that everybody is paying attention TO Gov. Rendell. Including McCain! Even when McCain was winning nationally, he was still losing Pennsylvania by 4-5%! People the Bradley Effect is not happening, it did not happen in the primaries! I believe what I am seein in the Polls!

____________________

mysticlaker:

PRAISE BOOMSHAK! SEER OF THE FUTURE! OMNISCENT ONE! ALL PRAISE BOOMSHAK!

____________________

rami:

I'm under the impression there is not a single state where Mccain is polling (based on moving average as done here and on other sites) above Bush's 2004 result.

Not even Arizona.

____________________

Lets not forget the election in 2000 when Bush won by a 5 to 4 vote in our United States Supreme Court. Don't be complacent because of poll numbers. Tell your friends and family to get to the polls and vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden. As my Dad, who was a great football coach use to say, it is the 4th quarter and we can't let up now. On November 4th we are going to take the football in to the end zone for the winning TD. Lets get a Democrat win!

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

____________________

CTPonix4BHObama:

Ok I've defended Chris Matthews a million times to people saying "He's NOT left" cause I really dont think he is but is anyone else watching him tear appart Pfot and Palin? Kinda over the top and i'm a progressive male.

____________________

YES!! Go Nevada! This looks more like what I see on the streets here.

____________________

douglasdao:

Wow, is West Virginia full of racists? They are surrounded by states trending toward the Democrats, but they continue to act like Southerns in the Jim Crow era. What are the demographics in West Virginia? I seem to remember reading they have a inordinately large elderly population.

____________________

syrac818:

@ SOLOBJ:

You bring up an excellent point. Obama's campaign has consistently be on point throughout the campaign. It just seems very odd that they suddenly would go braindead in regards to PA, two weeks prior to the election, and that Rendell would need to put them on to recent developments.

____________________

JerryTheAngel:

What can you expect from a state that elected a United States Senator who was a member of the KKK? (West Virginia)

____________________

zotz:

JerryTheAngel-
Sen Bird has endorsed Obama. Many people are misguided in their youth. Those that see the error of their ways and make ammends should be congratulated not condemned.

____________________

Pazienza:

Zogby's latest:

New Mexico (5)

Obama-Biden
46.1%

McCain-Palin
45.5%

Not Sure/Other
8.3%

McCain has gained since our last survey of New Mexico on Oct 9-13, closing the Obama lead among independents and doing better among Republicans than Obama is with Democrats. We will soon test the state again, and will wait for that to see whether a status change is called for.

Virginia (13)

Obama-Biden
49.7%

McCain-Palin
46.1%

Not Sure/Other
4.3%

Obama leads among independents and does slightly better among Democrats than McCain does with Republicans. Obama leads among all voters with family incomes under $100,000. Seniors go big for McCain.

States Remaining Undecided

Ohio (20)

McCain-Palin
49.3%

Obama-Biden
46.5%

Not Sure/Other
4.1%

McCain continues to hold a small lead in a state he must win. McCain leads by more than 10 among independents, Catholics and voters older than 50. Turnout will be especially important here in a state with early voting for President for the first time ever.

Colorado (9)

Obama-Biden
48.2%

McCain-Palin
47.9%

Not Sure/Other
3.9%

Loyalty to McCain from Republicans, who outnumber Democrats in Colorado, is keeping him toe-to-toe with Obama. However, Obama leads among independents by 19. McCain is also keeping it very close among voters ages 18-29.

Florida (27)

Obama-Biden
48.8%

McCain-Palin
45.2%

Not Sure/Other
6.0%

A double-digit lead among independents gives Obama a small lead. McCain counters with his advantages among religious voters and seniors. The race is even among Hispanics.

Missouri (11)

McCain-Palin
48.3%

Obama-Biden
48.0%

Not Sure/Other
4.6%

Both candidates run strongly with their base constituencies, and for now independents aren't breaking either way. So we have a tie.

North Carolina (15)

Obama-Biden
49.6%

McCain-Palin
46.5%

Not Sure/Other
3.8%

Large margins among independents and voters under age 35 join African-Americans to give Obama a small lead. North Carolina may have the nation's biggest gender gap. Men favor McCain, 57%-40%. Women choose Obama, 61%-36%.

New Hampshire (4)

Obama-Biden
46.5%

McCain-Palin
46.2%

Not Sure/Other
7.7%

Independents are tied and that is all you need to know. New Hampshire is too close to call.

Nevada (5)

McCain-Palin
51.5%

Obama-Biden
44.0%

Not Sure/Other
4.6%

This is a 7-point swing from our last interactive poll on Oct. 9-13. Obama's Democratic support has slipped, while McCain's Republican support has gone up. We'll keep Nevada undecided.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1603

____________________

tjampel:

posting all zogby internet polls sure takes up a lot of real estate on this page, and, like investments in real estate, it's pretty worthless, according to any respected pollster. Just go over to fivethirtyeight and see how these polls are weighted compared to Ras, a Repub-leaning pollster, which typically is weighted at 1.70 for a sample of 1000, where Zogby will is down around .29 for his Internet polls for the same sample size so...it takes about 6 Zogby polls to equal one Ras Poll. That tells you something.

Zogby telephone polls are inconsistent as hell but rater far higher than his his Interactive ones. So his National tracker should be given some (slight) credence

____________________

zotz:

Pazienza-
Zogby's internet polls have a very poor record for reliability.

____________________

JFactor:

Zogby interactive polls are pure garbage. I really do hope that they do not influence the trends much here on Pollster.
______________________________________
http://www.internationalpoliticstoday.com

____________________

Dana Adini:

Boom

please promise us that you will be here on this board on November 4th and take it like a man.

____________________

Dana Adini:

BTW Zogby is smart he was a non entity coming into this election season....he went on Hannity told him the race was closer than the other pollsters. They gave him time because they were desperate gave him a link on drudge. He's the first polls out at 1 AM EST...He's not stupid he readjusted his sample weighting now he's same numbers as everyone else.... He's back in business thanks to Sean Hamnity
hahahaha suckers

____________________

socalerdoc:

anybody else think Palin is not releasing her medical records because she's had a lot of plastic surgery?

____________________

Maybe it has to do with the "records" of her "pregnancies". Who'd really care about plastic surgery all that much? Might make a few laughs on the late night shows, but...

____________________

Publius:

The only thing that matters is this: Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado.

I have no doubt that Obama is up more than 2 in PA based on the myriad polls we have seen. He is ahead enough in VA that McCain would need to run heavy there just to catch up, and he doesn't have the money. Let OH and FL go. They would be nice jewels and would pin McCain down for a few days, but they are not necessary.

McCain has nowhere else to go, the economy will continue to worsen, and bin Laden just announced that McCain is his candidate of choice.

Obama will begin running his positive, forward-looking ads starting with the 30 minute buys next week and will look more presidential every day.

If boom and alankeyes are the best the Republicans have, then they are in serious trouble.

Be cool.

____________________

K Johnson:

John McCain is playing onto Barack Obama's strategy and it is a loosing one. John should have focused from the get go to the states won by W and protect them. Then once that is done, he could venture with time permitting onto blue states and put Obama on defense. But for some reasons, McCain was mavericking with the state and he should be applying for AARP membership.

____________________

DTM:

Keep in mind that the way Pew scores an article, if it says "McCain down in polls", that is a negative story. Similarly, if it says, "McCain down in polls because of X", that is also a negative story. And vice-versa for the candidate up in a poll. Not surprisingly, then, media coverage of McCain was more positive back when he was gaining in the polls, but turned negative when he started losing in the polls.

Anyway, I suggest people read the Pew article all the way through the end--it has some interesting insights. But in essence, they determined that the media was not generating the tone of its coverage itself, but rather when the polls showed something good or bad happening to a candidate's numbers, it would conform the tone of the coverage to those results.

____________________

Tom:

Man, boomshak must be getting dizzy from all the spinning he is doing. Remember boom, sit down and put your head between your knees until the dizzyness subsides.

Chuck Todd had some interesting observations about McCain/Palin today. He sat in on an interview they gave with Brian Williams and observed the two had no chemestry between them. From what I saw of the interview, I can see where he is coming from. He also said the campagin looked defeated and I can also see that. Remember the contradictory information about the McCain people pulling out of Colorado and Iowa? This is a lot like the Clinton team in the waining days of the primary (i.e. after Wisconsin) when there was a lot of infighting and people inside the campaign going to the press to second-guess the campaign's strategy.

Finally, the Zogby people need to be alert for squirrels because they are nuts. I don't know if they noticed this or not, but Democrats are now even with Republicans in Colorado. Heck, there are more Democrats than Republicans in Arapahoe County, Colorado, which used to be a Republican stronghold! (I used to live there and worked for the Democrats there ten years ago.)

____________________

Darknut:

Boom: Which Stage are on?

The 5 Stages of Grief

* Denial (Wow these polls are so bogus!)
* Anger (He's a socialist traitor!)
* Bargaining (I would give my left nut for a McSame Victory)
* Depression (Anyone seen boom?)
* Acceptance (It's the end of the world!!!)

Class what do you think?

____________________

doomshak:

Hi darknut.

I'm on Stage 6: Doom (Right now I'm drowning in alcohol).

____________________



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