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Democracy Corps 50 District Tracking: Final Survey

Topics: 2006 , The 2006 Race

Democracy Corps, the project of Democratic pollster Stan Greeberg and Democratic consultants James Carville and Bob Shrum, just released their final tracking survey (memo, results) conducted among voters in 50 competitive districts currently held by Republicans.  To be clear, they do not conduct 50 surveys in 50 districts, but one sample of 1,201 600 or so likely voters spread out across the 50 districts.  While this approach does not allow for district-by-district projections, it is the only public survey available that has tracked attitudes on a weekly basis in the most competitive congressional districts (our massive collection of public polls, by comparison, provides what amounts to as a "time lapse" snapshot of these districts taken over the course of October). 

There is evidence of a slight shift of the playing field to the Republicans at the end of last week, fully reflected in the first half sample of the survey on Thursday night. That shift includes perhaps a 2-point gain in party identification advantage amongst these likely voters (with and without leans) in the Republican districts; a 3-point rise in "right track" (though only 34 percent), a 3-point gain in Congress job approval (though only 34 percent) and a 4-point rise in "warm" reactions to Republican Congress (though only 38 percent).

Republican congressional voters' high interest in the election is up 4 points, but still lags 11 points behind that of Democratic voters. Together, that has likely cut the Democrats' margin by 2 points -- and that is not trivial in districts where Republicans are near 50 percent. But more striking is how stable is this race and how endangered the incumbents are. While the voting electorate has become marginally more Republican, it has not moved key indicators,

Of course, the polling company that conducted the survey -- Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner Research -- is a Democratic firm.  So take these results with whatever grain of salt you deem appropriate. 

The memo also makes some interesting observations about their year-long experiment with a "named" congressional ballot question. It is well worth reading in full

 

Comments
Patrick Thompson:

Good news indeed. But I remember reading the Dem Corp final poll the Monday before the '04 elections and allowing myself to get excited as well.

+23 House
+ 4 Senate

And this result should be viewed as a huge Democratic victory.....pt

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Dan:

I want every Democrat or person who is going to vote Democrat to get to the polls and Vote tommorow. The Democrats have a great chance of winning at least 6 Senate Seats and winning back the House of Representatives, BUT WE HAVE TO VOTE TO WIN! Check out my weight training website: www.bigguysgym.com and get to the polls and VOTE DEMOCRAT!

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Dan

I need weight training to vote? Are the levers that heavy in your district? Or are you expecting trouble at the polls requiring muscle?

BR

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Marc:

I am just getting a sense that the over/under on the House should be about Dems +20 and the over/under in the Senate should be Dems +4. I get the feeling that Republicans hang on to the Senate and lose the House by a handful of seats. I think Republicans should be happy with retaining the Senate with an actual majority (51 seats) and keeping their House delegation at 210 or more. If the Republicans get under 210 it will be extremely difficult to regain the House in 2008 and would solidify Democrat gains.

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Mark. Thanks for posting this. The total sample size is 1200.

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big dave from queens:

In the Senate Dems will go no less than 4 and possibly as many as 7 with 6 being the most likely scenario. (RI, OH, PA, Montana, Missouri, Virginia)

As for the House I would be SHOCKED if the Dems won less than 30. Right now the number is closer to 50 (I'm predicting 46) and I would not be surprised to see the number exceed 55.

By the time Pennsylvania, NY, Conn., Ohio, and Indiana are done, Dems will have already retaken the House. (18-22 pickups in these 5 states alone.)

Then give me 1 in New Hampshire, 2 in North Carolina, 1 in Virginia, 1-2 in Iowa, 2-3 in Florida, possibly 1 in Kansas (KS-2) possibly 1 in Nebraska (NB -3) possibly 1 in Idaho (ID-1), 1-2 in Wisconsin, 2-4 in Illinois, 0-3 in Michigan, 0-3 in Minnesota, 1 in New Mexico, 1 in Texas, 1-3 in Kentucky, and the romp is on.

Then ARizona can add 1-3 more, California 1-2 more, Washington 1-2 more, and I see a tidal wave.

Then since most people have finally caught on to the fact that Republicans are failures on every major issue, don't be surprised for a few surprises that the pollsters overlooked.

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wxdave:

Big dave prediction is more like mental masterbation.... 46 Pick up in the house and 7 in the senate for the Dems?

dude are fooking HIGH? are you onncrack?

Chafeee has taken he lead in RI Burns will win in MT given the republican bias in that state.... STEELE will win with his Big mo behind him in MD which fo course a hack like dave cant even think about.

yes I am an Edwards supporter...

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Tim From Indy:

I think DEMS will win House but not Senate. Which is fine with me. I want a restoration of checks & balances in legislative branch. Recent polling showing Republicans narrowing races is no suprise. GOP is known for it's superior get out the vote effort (reason for Rove's optimism). BTW how else is Rove and whitehouse suppose to act? They know the deal. If by a % chance GOP keeps control. Bush will be able to crow...

GOP get out vote campaign is making a difference. But key is it's narrowing the DEM'S lead rather than overtaking them in key races. If going in today GOP/DEM'S were considered even in polls. GOP would keep control. Unlike alot of DEMS who have this "we can still blow it attitude." I am an optimistic Democrat. People still vote. All the money, campaign commercials, technology etc... Can influence voters. But people vote and fact is Iraq is a failed policy that Bush & Republicans pushed and cannot spin. I believe enough voters are angry about this issue. Polls show voters are voting on national issues rather than local issues GOP wants to focus on. I had my 2 cents for today. Good day.

BTW: I voted absentee ballot and encourage others to do so in future. More convenient and your vote is guaranteed to count.

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Tim:

In the end, I could see a gain of 35 seats in the House for the Democrats and 51 for the Democrats in the Senate is not unachievable in the Senate considering how many incumbent Republicans are below 50% and their challengers are within the margin of error. 238 D in the House, 51 D in the Senate.

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BW in AZ:

You Dems are all so wrong !!! GOP FOREVER..we may loose a couple seat but mark my words...BOTH HOUSE AND SENATE WILL REMAIN UNDER GOP CONTROL THOUGH BY A SLIGHT MARGIN!!! And by the way please run Hillary in 08...it will be a virtual blood bath for you...you think cadidates have run from Bush this year....your party will have to get away from her like rats off the Titanic !!!

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BW in AZ:

You Dems are all so wrong !!! GOP FOREVER..we may loose a couple seat but mark my words...BOTH HOUSE AND SENATE WILL REMAIN UNDER GOP CONTROL THOUGH BY A SLIGHT MARGIN!!! And by the way please run Hillary in 08...it will be a virtual blood bath for you...you think cadidates have run from Bush this year....your party will have to get away from her like rats off the Titanic !!!

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Tim From Indy:

Hey possible Good News For DEMS. Read BW's post above. From posting on stock market invetment boards. BW's post looks like an angry investor whose stock he has short position in. Stock just got positive news. The Caps, double posting... All anger. BW come see the light. It won't hurt you.

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