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Edwards: 2-3 Points Ahead or Tied

Topics: 2008 , The 2008 Race

Candidates are usually reticent when talking about their standing in the polls, but thanks to an alert reader, we can pass on some comments about the Iowa polls from Democrat John Edwards, made during a podcast interview with CNN's Lisa Goddard (starts about two thirds through):

Goddard: I asked the former Senator about his recent slip to second in polls in Iowa.

Edwards: Now my honest assessment is there are hundreds of polls, unfortunately for the world, in Iowa. I think the bottom line is that Iowa is very competitive. It's been very competitive all along.

You know, I began with a very small lead, you know, two, three points and we've stayed in the same general area. I'm either slightly ahead or we're roughly tied. It's been that way the entire time, there's really not been any change and I expect that will maintain itself at least for some period of time.

But the bottom line is, polls go up and down and that will continue until caucus day in January.

Of course, as with any good spin, we have no way of knowing exactly what polls he is reading. He could be talking about his campaign's internal polls or simply characterizing the "hundreds" of polls" in the public domain (there aren't quite that many, but we know what he means -- more details on those polls here ). It is also arguably in Edwards' interest to lower rather than raise expectations regarding his position in Iowa. So I am not entirely sure what to make of this. Still... interesting.

 

Comments
Asa:

Could it be that he was just giving his honest assessment in answer to a question? Oh my goodness, no-one would ever do that!

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Andreas:

Plus, he seems to read the most important polls correctly: Considering the MoE, he IS either slightly ahead of Clinton, or tied with her.
Since he also knows that he leads among the most dedicated caucus-goers, while Hillary leads among those who state they'll be first-time caucus-goers, his confidence seems justified.

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