Articles and Analysis


FL: 2010 Gov (FLCOC 10/8-10)

Florida Chamber of Commerce / Cherry Communications (R)
10/8-10/09; 605 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Orlando Sentinel post, St. Petersburg Times post)


Job Approval / Disapproval
Gov. Crist: 62 / 28 (chart)

2010 Governor
42% McCollum (R), 35% Sink (D) (chart)



I think the Dems pushing health care almost turns FL into a red state from a purple state. Since seniors object to health care reofrms from Obama by almost 2 to 1....and FL has plenty of sneiors...even a small movement in ovting patterns to the right by seniors down there and FL becomes a pretty reliable red state.



Any sort of change is always going to get a backlash and this was bound to happen. The majority of Americans just don't understand the problem that we pay twice as much for healthcare than any other western Democracy in the world. The Florida GOP may indeed have short-term success in 2010 and Crist is a fairly rational and moderate guy. Senior citizens right now overwhelmingly don't know what to make of Obama, but I think as did Clinton that by 2012 and Obama's ability to campaign well, the growing histpanic population and younger voters will get out and Florida's long term trends will be more towards Democrats. The human instinct is always to oppose change in the beginning and accept it later.



Well we don't spend twice as much, that is misleading...but we do have twice the quality!

There are dem strategists who are seriously concerned about losing the senior vote for a generation. Espeically as seniors have to live with g'ment run care and are subject to the rationing, etc...the waits, etc. And seniors vote, they are rleiable voters unlike the youth for example. If seniors turn ther eback on the Dems in any significant numbers, it will swing the power structure to the GOP for years.



When you rely on the senior vote you have to realize that their time is limited. I'd take younger support over older any day for long term success.



Younger people become older people!!! You remember that old saying, your born a democrat, you live a republican and you die a democrat....that may change.

I'm in th camp who think that yes indeed care will be rationed, the operation they coudl get at 25, htey won't get at age 65....plus most seniors have kids....if the systems critics are right about the rationing and stuff like that, children of seniors won't be so happy about it.

I think obama is almost certain to lose FL in 2012....a state he just barely won anyway.



'Well we don't spend twice as much, that is misleading...but we do have twice the quality!'

Well it depends on if you measure it per capita or as a % of GDP. The US does spend about twice as much on health care per capita than most other western nations, but spends about 60% more as a percentage of GDP.

Quality of health care is much harder to define, the US lags somewhat behind in terms of life expectancy but does better with some other measures. Twice the quality is a bit difficult to reconcile.

Health care is always rationed no matter what system is in place, whether is public or private. Any 'hit' Obama does take over the health care in Florida will be balance for by a raising hispanic population. Obama won FL by about 3% or 235K in votes, if Obama wins (overall) in 2012 by about 4% he will likely carry FL if it much closer than that he will probably lose it.



I don't think I could predictively call FL without any sort of republican name in the mix. Hell if Crist would run why would even have this conversation?

Anyways I expect FL to get redder over time while expecting Texas to get bluer over time as they experience their California invasion. Will that make a difference by 2012? We'll see. Texas is expected to gain 3 electoral votes after redistricting from the Census which are largely expected to be dem representitives.



Your dreaming if you think TX is going blue for prez anytime soon.

You made a good point indirectly. Liberals make states bluer by fleeing blue states and into red states. Things get so bad in states like CA, that they flee like mice from a flood to the nearest red state....the irony is they vote for the same policies they were fleeing from. Shows the genius of th average Dem voter.

I recall two years ago when CA dems were moving to NV in mass...the local paper did a poll asking why they were leaving CA...the #1 answer by a margin of 4 to 1 said TAXES were to high in CA....but when they get here to NV they vote for Dems who in turn raise there taxes.

Hmmm, kinda makes you wonder what all these dems will do when they have nowhere left to flee too.



Texas is becoming increasingly blue and their legislature is starting to look like a purple state. 76 to 74 split in the House, 19-12 in the Senate. Texas has jobs because its low in taxes and relatively unregulated in every aspect. But there's really nothing to champion the quality of life in the state other than existing the the sun belt. Some of the worst Superfund sites, education ranked at #36, and 72oz steaks if you eat them in one sitting. Sign me up! :|

I'd hardly call what is happening in California a national trend. Many states like Colorado, New Mexico, and other "red states" are becoming blue because of large youth populations that are taking over the older voters in those areas.

Nevada is an abomination too. The state is as corrupt as California even under republican leadership. It'll be interesting to see LV dry up like the Colorado River since its so dependent on it for growth.



That will be the day when the Republicans will become the "defenders" of Medicare! Yeah, right! No one will buy it!

The Baucus bill will significantly alleviate the "donut hole" in Medicare Part D starting next year. Considering that most seniors start hitting the donut hole around August, 2010 they will be the very first citizens to see benefits from health care reform. Don't think that won't be played up around election time.

Bill Nelson has found a way to protect senior's medicare advantage plans as well, so Seniors aren't going to see a dime's worth of difference in their care over the next few years.

Over time, when none of the Republican predictions come to pass i.e. rationing and all that, it will become a moot point. Republicans have been trying to destroy medicare for decades. Their attempts to "protect" socialism is very transparent, and will probably backfire on them in the end. In fact, it's already happening... Recent polling has shown a significant rise in support (or fall in disapproval) from seniors on the subject. Seniors aren't stupid. They know who's been on their side all these years, and it's not the anti-medicare crowd.



I don't buy either the approval numbers for Christ here or the Generic Ballot numbers....40% Repub to 32% Dem.

Given these numbers The race may be fairly close at this moment, with McCollum ahead by 3-4% or so, though it's impossible to say

Seniors know what's happening with their own coverage. No way to hoodwink them one way or another about that. Whatever pain or relief they're experiencing a year from now will weigh heavily on their minds in this election



Polls I have seen show opposition from seniors growing, not shrinking. Seniors, by definition have been around a long time. They have a pretty good guide when it comes to common sense...and common sense says when you add 50 million more people to a system that is not goriwng to match those new people, you will have long wait lists and rationing. Seniors also come from a generation when you actually had to pay for things. And they know there's only so much money to goaround...not enough money exists to pay for everything for everyone.

This fantasy Dems have created that everyone will be covered for everything, no waiting lists, no rationing is semi-retarded. Its a common sense thing from seniors....and they know in rationing, they iwll be the first to be told no.

There simply is not enough money in the system to do what Dems are claiming they will do. There will be a backlash against the Dems on health care and it will hurt badly.

Didn't your parents ever teach you that money doesn't grow on trees? You can't just say poof, add 50 million people and expect quality to increase....the same # of doctors and hospitals will be serving a much larger group now....again, common sense says, waiting lists and rationing.

Dems with all the power they gathered in 2006 and 2008 are going to shoot themselves right in the foot..........and your going to have to wait in line to get the bullet removed....welcome to Dem controlled health care. We'll get to you when we get to you, maybe.




You know as well as I do, state legislatures mean nothing to who your state votes for for prez. Politics is local....a dem in TX is much much much different than a dem in Vermont. Sinc ethe national Dems have a habit of putting up very liberal candidates these days, TX style dems vote for the GOP....look around at states like WV, MT, ND, LA....lots of Dems from thsoe states, but they vote red for pres....your local democrat could be as conservative as ronald reagan....and when it come sto prez, you vote your ideaology, not your party. If it were determined by party, the Dems would have won every race since the beginning of time.



How does spending an additional 2 trillion on health care lower the cost?


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