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FL: 2010 Gov (Quinnipiac 4/8-13)

Topics: Florida , Poll

Quinnipiac
4/8-13/10; 1,250 registered voters, 2.8% margin of error
497 Republicans, 4.4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Quinnipiac release)

Florida

2010 Governor: Republican Primary
56% McCollum, 7% Dockery (chart)

2010 Governor: General Election (trends)
40% McCollum, 36% Sink (chart)
37% Sink, 28% Dockery

Favorable / Unfavorable
Bill McCollum: 38 / 18
Alex Sink: 22 / 15
Paula Dockery: 9 / 5

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Maybe it will come back to haunt these conservative AG's who want to legally challenge the federal governement that speaking for the people of their state, and fighting historic reform may not get them anywhere. Even though many aspects of the recent health care bill people don't like and may need to be changed, the Ag's in PA and Florida are taking a huge risk of looking mean spirited and careless, and will give those "less likely" voters more of a reason to be angry.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

NIce try FLP, but the GOP again is ahead in a state that Obama won. The Dems are going nowhere, the only fight you have now is keeping down the GOP margin to save.

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Field Marshal:

Remember, old people typically get out and vote religiously. And there are a lot of old people in Florida and given the health care debacle, FL will likely be decidedly red come November.

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jamesia:

So 40% McCollum, 36% Sink... leaving 24% that have no opinion. And since this poll has a MOE of +4% we're talking basically a tie.

Of course, FL is traditionally GOP so it'd be surprising to see a Democrat take this office.

I do wonder if the GOP lead passage of teacher salary reform will play a role here.

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Farleftandproud:

Florida is a very tough state to get accurate polling data considering it's Democraphics and regional differences, ethnically and culturally. Things can change quickly, moreso than a state like NH or Indiana where voters seem to make their minds up early.

Meek, Crist and Rubio race would be interesting.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Crist won't run as an independent. Meek is clearly an underdog but Dems in Florida would probably go for Meek, unless Crist moved to the ctr.

It is typical of the GOP to run on scaring Old people that their medicare will be cut. They will defend another government program that was put into Law by just about All Democrats back in the Mid 1960's and now they will try to defend that Government program from a more recent health care reform plan which is insurance reform, not even "medicare for all".

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Aaron_in_TX:

Within the MoE and both WAY below 50%? Sounds pretty good to me. Reminds me a lot of how the NJ-Gov polls looked prior to Christie winning the nomination.

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tjampel:

I guess that, when a particular poll has a number someone here dislikes they can ignore it by making assertions (which they pull from a very secret and dark place, I think) that, say..."Florida is traditionally Republican" Hey folks, let's just take a look. Remember "traditional" means...we should back a ways, right? So how about going back to the Governorship following the 1970 elections:

Askew...Dem 8 years
Mixson...Dem (for 3 days only)
Graham...Dem 8 yrs
Martinez...Rep 4 years
Chiles...Dem 7+ yrs (until his death_
McKay...Dem (for a month, after Chiles' death)
Bush...Rep 8 years
Crist...Rep (3+ years)

Total

Dem Gov 24 years
Rep Gov 15 year

So this PROVES that, Florida is traditionally Republican...I see.

OK, so if just making up stuff doesn't suffice you can always speak in generalities about this being a bad year for Dems, generally, the coming red tide lifting up all GO boats, angry seniors who vote.

These are all factors, all legitimate concerns, which might move people to vote one way or another, but what about comparing apples to apples? Why do people seem to forgo that here?

There was a Quin poll on Fla Gov taken Jan 27th, 2010; here are those results:

"Florida voters support State Attorney General Bill McCollum's promise to challenge the constitutionality of any federal health care bill that forces people to buy health insurance and give the Republican a 41 - 31 percent lead over State Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the Democrat, in the governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today."

Oh wait, these numbers compared with the current set don't seem to support the narrative of some of you here; perhaps that's why you chose to ignore them.

Isn't it amazing how a set of numbers has meaning sometimes (when you like them) and another set, from the same polling firm generated the same way, is irrelevant at other times (when you don't).

Both sides do this equally. This means that both sides are just childish when they have an agenda and the data either fits it or doesn't.

One poll doesn't make an election and this one could be an outlier, could easily be 3% higher for McCollum based on MOE; we just don't know right now. But it seems to me that, if we all want to at least be able to discuss these results intelligently it would help to at least know the trend lines for the same pollster. I think you would all agree.

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