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FL: McCain 47, Obama 47 (Datamar-10/29-30)

Topics: PHome

Datamar
10/29-30/08; 995 RV, 3.1%
Mode: IVR

Florida
McCain 47, Obama 47

 

Comments

Does this poll include the people who have voted early? Just curious about that.

Whoever wins the election, neither Obama nor McCAIN support single payer universal health care. I would like people to go to
http://poll.democratz.org and answer a single poll question on Single Payer Universal Health Care.

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NorthernObserver:

I prefer the ARG Florida poll, so that's the one I will pay attention to! :-)

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politicalmomma2:

These are mysterious numbers, particularly because Obama normally does better in the RV sample than the LV sample, since many first-time voters are screened from the latter sample. Can anyone vouch for the quality of Datamar information?

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political_junki:

Also Mason/Dixon has a FL poll.
What is obvious is that FL will be down the wire. I hope Obama will have sealed the deal before counting the votes in FL ends, only then it will be fun to watch :)

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UpperLeft:

Look at the cross-tabs & the disclaimer. They say 51% of people have already voted, but give no indication of how they dealt with that component of the sample. They also say the re-weight "as necessary" without giving details.

If they discarded those who already voted, this makes sense, since Obama is probably up substantially with those who have voted.

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laguna_b:

If Obama carries either Florida or Pa., both East coast states, then the drama should be over by 8-9PM PST here and I can commence some happy partying!

I have had enough drama and suspense...

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thoughtful:

There is not a lot to criticize about this poll, in fact a couple weeks ago most of the inmates here like the Obama lead.

FL has been tightening ever since Jesse Jackson opened his big mouth

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licinfl:

I can't comment on the rest of their numbers, but the "have you voted" response is overstate based on real numbers. The sample has a 51% already voted (as of 10/30) Florid stats are 46.7% as of 11/1 (that is, it includes 10/31)
Considering the daily turnout that is a statistically significant error.

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carl29:

I don't know who these guys are. I wish I knew, but it is not the case :-(

Their previous poll was on 10/12-13/08, Obama 47% McCain 42%.

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jonny87:

AA likely turnout decreased....yeah right!

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carl29:

Guys, I said it then; I say it now. Why do you give so much tought to a poll that doesn't have any track-record in the state of FL. Take it from a Florida resident. I mean, it is just non-sense.

Look what I said on Oct. 15 when their previous poll came out:

"carl29:
Datawho? This is just silly. Now, everbody and their grandma wants to conduct polls. Although I like the numbers, I am not taking this into account, guys :-(

Posted on October 15, 2008 11:01 AM"

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C.S.Strowbridge:

"I hope Obama will have sealed the deal before counting the votes in FL ends, only then it will be fun to watch"

Agreed. I'm hoping that by 7:00 when the first Virginia votes come in, we will know that Obama is blowing McCain out of the water, and we can just relax and enjoy.

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politicalmomma2:

This is taken from a Pennsacola (sp?) newspaper's write-up of the new Mason-Dixon poll in FL.
What's wrong with the math here???????

A survey conducted Wednesday and Thursday by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research shows Obama ahead 49 percent to 47 percent, with 7 percent of voters still undecided. The lead is well within the poll’s 4 percent margin of error.

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licinfl:

@Politicalmomma2:

Florida has its own election math...if needed the Republicans will count their votes twice to get the win...hence the extra 3% (lol)

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jswarren:

laguna: I'm convinced that there will be a media conspiracy to slow count the Virginia vote if it looks like Obama's going to win in order to delay calling it until at least 9pm EST, 8pm CST in order to minimize the damage to downballot races.

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carl29:

CBS poll out:

Obama 54% to McCain 41%

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jswarren:

And to keep people watching and ratings high. That's the whole point of elections, right?

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rami:

wow it will be a fascinating election day, four states are insanely close : NC, FL, MS, IN.

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carl29:

Get this guys,

"Obama leads among EARLY VOTERS 57% to 38%, a nineteen point advantage"

According to CBS, in 2004 their poll had Kerry 45% to Bush 40% among EARLY VOTERS. Compare :-)

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Paul:

Early voting, actually logged in votes as of 11/01/08 in FL:
Dems 45.6%
Reps 37.8%
Other 16.6%
source:
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

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MaxMBJ:

Question: do these inclusions of early voting just reflect party identification or has anyone actually exit polled these people?

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RossPhx:

This DataMar poll of Florida shows that the African-American population has dropped from 12% to 10% in just a week. Shouldn't someone call the UN's genocide investigators?

But at least the poll tells us that its automated dialers use "the voice of a professional announcer." What exactly is it that makes him or her professional? Like, getting paid?

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MaxMBJ:

Ross:

Why is it Obamaites always trash polls they don't like?

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cinnamonape:

Looked at their sampling and what I noticed is that they droppede their 18-34 sample from 21% to 18%. Their African-American component also dropped from 12.5% to 10.4%.

So maybe that accounts for the shift. Given the large AA early turnout it would seem strange to reduce those numbers.

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cinnamonape:

Datamar seems to try and keep their sample steady at about a 4% D advantage and a 47%-53% Male-Female ratio. Everything else fluctuates.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Oh, oh!

MACK'S BACK!!!!!!

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