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FL: Obama 46, McCain 42 (Suffolk-9/27-9/30)

Topics: PHome

Suffolk University
9/27-30/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews

Florida
Obama 46, McCain 42

 

Comments
IndependentThinker:

No way!!!
How come OBama is leading in four consecutive polls in FL?
This is downrightly outrageous an biased, isn't it boomSPIN ?
Let's get the SPIN machine started!!

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IndependentThinker:

I predict that the next state McPain will be campaigning in will be TX

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Commander_King:

Later McStunt!

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Commander_King:

Obama up by 9 in new Wisconsin poll.

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faithhopelove:

Commander_King:

Link to the WI poll...?

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Tyler:

WI poll (technically not officially released yet... a "sneak peek")

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/10/sneak_peek_obama_up_9_in_wisco.html

Note that it is a StrategicVision (R) poll - an overtly Republican-affiliated pollster!

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Atomique:

Soon McCain will need to be making campaign stops in Idaho and Oklahoma to ward off the blue tsunami!

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Jyme:

It's a joke because as soon as a democratic pollster realizes that you are against obama wether independent or republican they hang up so they skew their numbers, check the drudge report, it actually has a larger sample and is more acurate

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Tyler:

@Jyme

So which polls showing Obama +100 are you referring to?

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Tyler:

... and anyway if they were going to do that, why bother calling people at all? Why not just make the numbers up?

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Connor:

LIBERALLLLLLLLL CONSPIRACCCCCCYYYYYY!!!!

YOU ALLLLLLL FAIL!

FAIL!!!!!!!!!

...


[Gobama!]

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PortlandRocks:

Hey everyone. Say BUH BYE to George USA. Just got an email from Mark Blumenthal and he's been KICKED from the site.

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thoughtful:

The Crosstabs on this would tend to favour a Republican.

So yes 4% is realistic.

Is Obama peaking too soon he's got to maintain for over a month!

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Mike_in_CA:

thoughtful,

this isn't so much an Obama "peak" as the early stages of an Obama wave/tsunami. Remember, US Elections are historically NOT very close. Heck, Clinton won both of his elections by 200 EV, and Reagan won both of his with EV totals in the 400s. Nixon won his 1972 election with 525 Electoral Votes!

I have always maintained from the beginning of this election, that Obama's support would skyrocket in October when people finally came around to thinking about who they were going to vote for. The word has been tossed around a lot tonight, but I think it's painfully obvious, to McCain, to Republicans, to everyone, that Obama will be our next President in a landslide.

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Tyler:

I don't think "peaking" is nearly the problem in the GE as it is in a primary, and it's doubly not a problem when there's real issues in the news like the economy (as opposed to endless front-page reporting on the two campaigns' snipes at one another, which can lead to politics fatigue among the electorate).

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rami:

Well the big question is whether what we are witnessing is a bounce or a sustained trend. If all the polls coming these days are really showing the trend, it'll be a landslide, with obama gaining 350 EV's or so.

Only a huge event could save Mccain now.

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Justin:

Peaking too soon? We still have the VP debate, two more presidential debates, the troopergate verdict, and McCain's complete mental break down. Who says this is a peak?

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Connor:

Well, Bush IS amping up operations on the Pakistan border in a last ditch effort to get bin Laden.

I guess Rick Davis and Steve Schmidt could helicopter over there and lend a hand? Cause I don't see any other options for McCain other than sitting around and waiting for an "external event."

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Mike_in_CA:

my boomshak-esque prediction: Obama rides this wave even higher, and wins with 375 electoral votes.

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thoughtful:

5-2 Undecideds breaking to Obama

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PortlandRocks:
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faithhopelove:

4 FL polls have been released today; they have shown leads for Obama of 4 (Suffolk), 4 (CNN), 8 (Q), and 3 (IA). The FL poll with the largest sample has Obama up 8; the FL poll with the smallest sample has Obama up 3.

In the last 10 FL polls (conducted by 8 different pollsters), Obama has led McCain 7 times, tied him 1 time, and trailed him 2 times (by just 1 point each). The tie and one of the McCain leads were found by right-leaning Rasmussen polls; the other McCain lead was found by a SUSA poll. During the primary season, Rasmussen and SUSA under-estimated Obama's support in FL by 8 and 5, respectively; Q under-estimated Obama's support by just 3. See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#FL
&
/polls/fl/08-fl-dem-pres-primary.html

These polls were in the field before Bill Clinton started to campaign for Obama in FL today. Obama has budgeted 39 million dollars for his effort to win FL. The state is 1 of 4 (along with PA, CO, and NV) in which he has recently increased his ad spending.

McCain has 1 top-tier pickup opportunity--NH (4 EVs). Even if he flips NH, he will lose the election unless he holds FL. Obama currently holds a slim lead there.

Perhaps the most interesting nugget from the Suffolk poll's narrative is this:

"The Florida bellwethers of Hillsborough & Monroe counties showed Obama leading McCain comfortably, 46 percent to 38 percent. Bellwether IDs are designed to predict outcomes -- not margins -- and to supplement the Suffolk University statewide polls. In 2008, Suffolk University bellwethers were 95 percent accurate in predicting winners in both Democratic and Republican primaries and, when in agreement with the statewide Suffolk polls of the respective states, were 100 percent accurate in predicting winners."

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Viperlord:

It's pretty clear that boom's predictions are bull, lol.

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McCain and Palin have NO plan for the economy and NO plan to end this war in Iraq. A Republican is a Republican. I don't want 4 more years of Bush and Cheney.

VOTE FOR BARACK OBAMA AND LETS GET A DEMOCRAT WIN IN NOVEMBER!

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PortlandRocks:

HOLY JESUS! Obama up 9 now in CBS poll. Just out! BOOM? I know. FAIL. LOL

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kerrchdavis:

@portland

ROFLMAO!

Boom, boom?? Where are you you sorry excuse for a human being?

fail!

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PortlandRocks:

FAIL!

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PortlandRocks:

DAMN LIBERL MEDIA BIAS! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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kerrchdavis:

Where'd boom go?? Slay the troll!!

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mj1:

Clinton can read the handwriting on the wall too. You'll soon notice the Obama 'haterade he has been serving stop. He has come to know that Obama will win this thing going away. Time for butt-kissing now so that he won't be persona non-grata after the election and that Hillary will get some love from Obama too.

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PortlandRocks:

What a nice!:)

RCP Average 09/25 - 09/30 -- 48.9 43.6 Obama +5.3

CBS News 09/27 - 09/30 769 LV 50 41 Obama +9
ABC News/Wash Post 09/27 - 09/29 916 LV 50 46 Obama +4
Pew Research 09/27 - 09/29 1181 LV 49 43 Obama +6
Associated Press/GfK 09/27 - 09/30 808 LV 48 41 Obama +7
Ipsos/McClatchy 09/26 - 09/29 1007 RV 48 45 Obama +3
Time 09/26 - 09/29 1133 LV 50 43 Obama +7
Gallup Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 2746 RV 48 44 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 3000 LV 51 45 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 09/28 - 09/30 902 RV 47 42 Obama +5
GW/Battleground Tracking 09/25 - 09/30 800 LV 48 46 Obama +2

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Trosen:

Let me tell you a little about FL. The ground game that Obama and his volunteers have put together down here is stunning. (And I'm a part of it) I even frankly have been saying it's a little too much. That FL is too entrenched in red, particularly with the legislature in Tallahassee. I am going to reserve judgement on these FL polls for another week or 2. I mean.. things just don't "feel" as if there's been this huge momentum turn that would reflect 10/12 point swings in these polls from one week to the next. However, let me tell you unequivocally, the drive to spread the word, register new voters, and push the Obama brand is staggering. I volunteered on the Kerry campaign, and it's not in the same stratosphere. The organization, the enthusiasm, the planning.. the Obama campaign is dead serious about putting FL in play. It seems to be paying off. But like I said.. I want to see another week or 2 of FL polls before I'm convinced he's suddenly up 6,7,8 points for real.

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boomshak:

This poll vastly undersamples the Central/West Coast of Florida. Isn't that where most of the seniors in FL live?

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faithhopelove:

Here's an appendix to my previous post:

The CNN poll (which I noted had Obama up 4) has Obama up 8 when 3rd-party candidates are included.

Over 100,000 FL African-Americans have registered to vote since January. One of the reasons Kerry did not fare as well in FL as Gore did was a decrease in African-American voting from 15% to 12%. Obama should draw a record number of African-Americans to the polls--meaning more than 15% in FL. See:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/704499.html

Another reason Kerry did not fare as well as Gore in FL was the fact that he was unable to campaign there for about a month (early August through early September) due to 4 hurricanes. During this time, Bush (as the incumbent president and brother of the state's governor) made multiple trips to FL, promising money and handing out bottled water. McCain does not have these built-in advantages.

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Trosen:

boom, the seniors in FL are spread all over the place. However, the I-4 corridor is notoriusly solid for Republicans, at least in the past 2 elections. I'd be curious to see cross-tabs of just that section (middle swath of the state from Tampa to Daytona) and see how much support Obama has been able to pick off there.

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boomshak:

CBS Poll? Yes, I just received my Rush Limbaugh Poll and it has McCain up by 12. I guess McCain has this locked up then.

You'll have to forgive me if I come right out and say ANYTHING from the likes of CBSNews (which usually polls with the NYTimes), is utter Bullsh*t.

This poll is 4 points above the RCP average. Fail.

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Trosen:

faithhopelove, excellent point about 2004 and the hurricanes. Jeb was all over the place with a camera in-tow to show him carrying ice, generators, etc. He was very very popular and no way he was going to let his brother lose those EVs. Crist won't either if he can help it.

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boomshak:

Why is the MSM coming out with these nutty polls?

Simple. They expect palin to detroy Biden tomorrow and they need some leway so they don't have to show McCain taking the lead.

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midknight1:

If McCain loses Florida he is done. Stick a fork in him and Sarah Palin. They are cooked.

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faithhopelove:

boomshak:

If anything, this poll over-samples seniors and under-samples young people. Its sample is 27% 66+, and only 13% 18-35. In 2004, 27% of FL voters were 60+, and 17% were ages 18-29. See:
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/FL/P/00/epolls.0.html

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faithhopelove:

Trosen:

Thanks for the on-the-ground report from FL.

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Obamatraveler:

Regarding seniors in FL, has anybody considered that, being very concerned about their retirement funds disappearing down the credit crunch hole, might be switching to Obama? Would be interesting to know how age groups fall out in this.

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thomas/germany:

If Al Gore had won in 2000 and reelected in 2004 now Joe Lieberman the great supporter of McSame would be vice president. I am sure he hopes that this joke figure Sarah Palin will win the VP debate against Biden. What has happened with this man who in 2000 I wanted to become Vice President? Now Obama leads in the Florida polls and I hope Obama will win FL with a 2 % - margin and not this "too close to call"-stuff. Lieberman lost in 2000 and he will loose again together with his friend McCain and I will love it.

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Tyler:

God, I can't imagine being someone who goes through life believing that every single major media outlet in the country is involved in some vast coordinated conspiracy to assist my political opponents through misinformation.

I mean, it's one thing to think Fox has a right-wing bias, or MSNBC has a left-wing bias, but to think that NBC, CBS, ABC, the AP, Time, and a whole raft of established polling organizations that make money based on their reputation for accuracy are all publishing deliberately skewed polls in an intricately coordinated attempt to influence public perception...

boomshak, is the CIA broadcasting secret martian codes into your teeth too?

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Trosen:

Traveler, one would think so. Not to mention McCain's been a champion of privatizing social security.

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carl29:

@Boomshak:"You'll have to forgive me if I come right out and say ANYTHING from the likes of CBSNews (which usually polls with the NYTimes), is utter Bullsh*t."

You really deserve people picking on you. No one can resist to laugh his or her buttocks off a clown.

This is what CBS or CBS/NYTimes were showing 4 years ago:

CBS/NYT (561 LV) 10/1 - 10/3
Bush 48% Kerry 47% - Bush +1

CBS News (931 LV) 9/20 - 9/22
Bush 50% Kerry 41% - Bush +9

Yes, boomshak is a great liberal conspiracy against the conservative candidate.

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Mike Farrace:

I know this is purely anecdotal and you might think it's silly to point it out, but I noticed something very unusual on my way back from bowling today. I missed last week, and in the two weeks since I last went, I would say at least 15 or 20 Obama signs went up along the 2 mile route. One is a guy's entire fence, probably 75 ft., hand-painted OBAMA OBAMA OBAMA next to a busy street. I live in a very nice and very conservative part of town where people just don't do things like that. This morning, FIVE new Obama signs on my street in this conservative neighborhood, joining the one in front of my house that's been there for months. There is something very real going on here.

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AlanSnipes:

Does anyone have Boomshaks' address? We need to call 911 for him after the relesae of the polls today.

Not to worry though Boomshak, McCain is ahead in Texas, Tennessee and Mississippi, where the bigot vote reigns supreme!

Boomshaks mantra: My mind is made up, don't confuse me with facts!

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carl29:

There is another Indiana poll out:

A South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll of 600 likely voters in the presidential election in Indiana shows John McCain 46%, Barack Obama 45%.

No doubt why the Republican party started to run ads in Indiana today. They are really feeling Obama knocking on the Hoosiers doors.

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ticketstub:

It seems to me that perhaps some of this movement for Obama IS from old people. They've got a lot at stake with the economy. The farther down the hole the economy goes and the higher inflation rises (which seems like it's coming soon) the less their retirement money will do for them.

That'll scare at least some of them away from the Republican party, since
polls seem to be indicating that people are blaming the GOP for the current economic state.

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Stuart:

Anything can happen. If we kick back we lose.

Volunteer.
Donate.

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keytype123:

keytype123:
As you can see you Dem's are all talking amongst yourselves.We Rep's are a bit dispirited so go ahead and chat-if things pick up we may be back but it doesn't look likely.It has been fun but when the economy tanks and your party is in govt there is nothing that can be done.
Cheers

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Dana Adini:

key....last time I checked gop has been in the white for the last 8 years and controlled both houses for 6 of those years.

that was funny. That's boomlike stupidity

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political_junki:

How can someone with least amount of intelligent vote for a ticket with Palin on it? It is not even about right and left, or Con and Lib or Dem and Rep. It is about common sense:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0rXmuhWrlj4&eurl=http://talkingpointsmemo.com/

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Pat:

@boomshak:

You Wrote:
Why is the MSM coming out with these nutty polls? Simple. They expect palin to detroy Biden tomorrow and they need some leway so they don't have to show McCain taking the lead.

Quite the contrary. The MSM would love nothing more than a very close race and lots of drama because it translates into high ratings. And all news organizaitons are in competition with each other for ratings so your conspiracy theory is absurd. However, collectively the whole country is becoming scared to death of the possibility of a Palin Presidency.

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Hoosier:

@carl29:

There is another Indiana poll out:

A South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll of 600 likely voters in the presidential election in Indiana shows John McCain 46%, Barack Obama 45%.

Just a disclaimer here: I live in Indiana and the SB Trib/WSBT polls are usually WAY off for any race they poll. It's not a Dem or GOP bias, its just very amateurish polling. In 2002, for example, they polled a county sheriff's race one week before the election and predicted the incumbent would win by 18%. He lost by 2%

While I don't discount that Indiana will be close, I think I'd put more faith in a Boomshak poll than the Trib/WSBT.

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1magine:

"I disagree with Roe v. Wade."
"I believe in a Right to Privacy."
What? Roe v. Wade is based on the right to privacy? The right to privacy is the cause of the 'Strict Constructionalist' dogma - as the word privacy doesn't appear in the Constitution.

OK, I like Jane 6 pack. My neighbors and friends are mechanics and retail managers, and electricians. Good men and women. Smart and likeable. But I'm not letting them do my open heart surgery. If you neither understand or are curious about the US Constitution you are not going to be my Vice President.

Stop running from debates, stop making up crap, argue the issues. You're Republicans - you value de-regulation - Govt is bad, taxes are bad, helping poor people is socialism and re-distribution of wealth. Let the Country decide. Or just get the F*** out of the way and let Progress through.

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Dana Adini:

Tribune/WSBT poll shows two tossups
Statewide races for president and governor are dead heats

By ED RONCO
TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER

Hoosiers are split almost evenly on their choices for president and governor, according to a South Bend Tribune/WSBT poll conducted Monday and Tuesday.

Of 600 likely voters, 46 percent favor Sen. John McCain to 45 percent who said they would vote for Sen. Barack Obama. Undecided voters made up 6 percent.

From the same sample, 47 percent planned to vote for Gov. Mitch Daniels, and 46 percent said they support Jill Long Thompson. Some 4 percent were undecided.

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marctx:

Senate passes bailout! Great, get it together house reps/dems. We desperately need the bailout to stop being the top story.

I'm worried about the debate. I hear Gov. Palin on Hanity today and she sounds great when she talks about energy and Alaska politics, but terrible when talking about national issues. Now I'm just hoping for her to squeak by with the bare minimum.

McCain is nearly out of this race. He needs a miracle.

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BOOMFAIL:

McCain = FAIL

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Ryan in MO:

@Hoosier

So, St. Joe and Elkhart counties I thought always trended democratic. I know Obama won both counties. Also, outside of Lake, Porter and LaPorte (mainly Mich City); and Marion county, St. Joe and Elkhart counties have a significant AA population. Durin my eight yers in SB, I don't recall the rib being all that great, and I preffered WNDU over WSBT when it came to news.

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Ryan in MO:

sorry for all the grammer, but rib = Trib

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C.S.Strowbridge:

Mike_in_CA:
"my boomshak-esque prediction: Obama rides this wave even higher, and wins with 375 electoral votes."

538.com has that happened nearly 30% of the time. You really think Boomshak is right nearly 30% of the time?

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Bigmike:

I think Boom's message is "Libs, don't be over confident."

You may recall that according to the EXIT polls Kerry won last time.

And you have driven expectations for Palin so low, if she gets Biden's name right they will be saying she won the debate.

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marctx:

Bigmike:

"And you have driven expectations for Palin so low, if she gets Biden's name right they will be saying she won the debate."

I saw clips of Gov. Palin winning debates in Alaska with her small town appeal and witty quips. However, the Obama supporter moderator is going to try to trivial pursuit her with gotcha questions.

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Bigmike:

Don't ask me how, just a feeling, but I think Palin will do a passable job.

You are right we need a miracle. McCain and his advisors haven't gotten a thing right since the convention, except McCain's debate performance. Economic news has drowned out everything else, and they had no clue how to handle it.

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Bigmike:

Mac's "suspend" stunt may be the worst political move I have ever seen. He could have done the same thing but used different words. "As our parties nominees, it would be helpful if Barak and I were there, involved, and sign off on the outcome."

A suspended campaign is what happens in primaries. It means you lost, but you are leaving your hat in the ring in case the other guy screws up huge or dies. Hillary suspended her campaign, as did Huckabee. When Mac used that word, it sounded like he was throwing in the towel.

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marctx:

Bigmike:

Gov. Palin's gonna do fine in the debate, I just want to sound surprised when she does. Lower the expectations.

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Connor:

@marctx

When you took your GED test, did you find that it was full of "gotcha" questions?

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Basil:

Any new question (that doesn't have a 3x5 card answer) is a gotcha question for Palin. English is not her first language, nor is any other language.

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johncoz:

1. Florida has been trending to Obama since Sept 15 (check out RCP's Florida graph). There is no surprise here.

2. The problem for McCain is that this is happening across 7 Bush states, while all Kerry marginal states are in better shape for Obama. What to do? Attack or defend? Where?

This breakout is likely to lead to riskier gambits by the McCain camp as they attempt to stem the bleeding. Unless Palin suddenly transforms into a cross between Socrates and Cicero tonight, there are no game-chengers on the horizon. Nate Silver's model places the odds of an Obama victory at 85.4%. Sounds right to me.

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bmrKY:

"I saw clips of Gov. Palin winning debates in Alaska with her small town appeal and witty quips. However, the Obama supporter moderator is going to try to trivial pursuit her with gotcha questions."

Seriously. You guys need to stop it with this "gotcha" crap. If McCain wins, she will be next in line to the presidency. It's not too much to ask that every person running for president or vice president be able to answer tough questions-- or even basic questions about how the branches of our government function. I would like to think that anyone who is aspiring for a public office as big as this one at least has some understanding of American history, knows at least a little bit about the Supreme Court, and at the very least reads a newspaper of some sort (and "all of 'em" doesn't count, although it was a nice try on her part). I've read where some of you conservatives ask "Well, how would've Obama responded if they asked him to name a Supreme Court case?" For starters, Obama taught constitutional law, graduated from Harvard Law School and was editor of the Harvard Law Review, so I'm pretty sure he could name a Supreme Court case or two... hell, who am I kidding, he could probably name all of them. And no, before you start, bragging about your educational achievements should be something to be proud of and should not be considered "elitist." I may be from rural Kentucky, the reddest of the red areas of my state, but I damn sure like to know that both the people I'm voting for are intelligent and educated and understand how government works. I like folksy down home appeal and funny quips as much as the next guy, but that certainly isn't a reason to vote for somebody. I don't want to have a beer with my president. I don't want my president to be drinking PERIOD. And I certainly don't want me or anybody that's "just like me" to be president. Having a person like myself in office for the past 8 years is the reason why over 80% of the country thinks that we are on the wrong track.

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miatch:

If Barack wins Florida, I'm gonna feel Obamatastic. Seriously. If even the elderly can see things clearly this time, I will be so happy for our country. I visit Miami once a year, and I find the cuban conservatives to be a population consistantly voting against their own interests. If a significant number of anti-castro cubans join the Democratic team, wow, that'll be a wonderful day.

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Hoosier:

@Ryan

In Indiana, St. Joseph County is a Democratic stronghold, but Elkhart County is solid GOP. Obama took Elkhart in the primary, but he will get hammered there in the fall.

Key counties for Obama will be: Lake (solid D, but sometimes low turnout), LaPorte (true swing county), Howard (heavily unionized), Marion (huge population), and Allen (toss-up county with a large population.

Obama also needs big turn-out from the colleges, especially IU and Purdue. Notre Dame is arch-conservative teritory, but most of their students are out-of-staters who vote absentee at home.

I would be really interested to see where these Indiana polls are bieng conducted. That would tell us a lot.

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mac_1103:

Simple. They expect palin to detroy Biden tomorrow and they need some leway so they don't have to show McCain taking the lead.

Do you think this stuff through at all before you throw it up here? How would this strategy help the MSM in promoting Obama? They deliberately exaggerate his lead going into the VP debate so they can show an exaggerated swing to the Republican ticket after the debate? Thus fueling a narrative of Palin's surprising competence and positive impact on the race?

I realize that liberals think conservatives are evil and conservatives think liberals are stupid, but this one is a real whopper, even by 24-hour news screaming head standards.

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terrapinwill:

If Florida polls close and Obama wins it, everyone can go to bed early. If Florida goes Obama, it will be an absolute rout.

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I fail to see how a good Palin debate will change what the Reps have done to this country. EVERYTHING is wrong. I love the way the Reps blame Clinton for things that are happening today...like little girls perform oral sex b/c of C. I heard that one from my son who lived in MS. He's a doctor. Connity said Clinton forced the banks to make bad loans. Oh, yeah, 9/11 was his fault , too.

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