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FL: Obama 49, McCain 45 (R2K-10/13-15)

Topics: PHome

Times-Union / South Florida Sun Sentinel /
Research 2000
10/13-15/08; 600 LV, 4%
Mode: Live telephone Interviews

Florida
Obama 49, McCain 45

 

Comments
makersmark:

THere is a SUSA poll today showing McCain plus 2 which is a bummer, but when looking at the internals, one realizes how fishy it is. This seems MUCH more realistic

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muckinello:

First ..lol

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MDB1974:

Good news. Survey USA just came out with a McCain +2 though. This thing is going to be tight. Now run aways here.

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bill kapra:

Gallup 50-43. LV numbers unchanged from yesterday

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muckinello:

uh oh.. Gallup +1 Obama today..

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maddiekat:

MDB1974

Survey USA shows McCain getting 22% of the AA vote.

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Stonecreek:

I wouldn't put too much stock in a SUSA poll. I don't think that they're prejudice, just flakey.

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platanoman:

That's true, Stonecreek. Mccain is not getting 22 of the black vote in Florida. No way.

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Darwin Please:

Thanks for the great website!

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MDB1974:

22% of the AA? That is some major number crunching. Another thing I noticed about SUSA, they have never polled a lead for Obama in FL.

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billwy:

I agree that SurveyUsa can be off at times. They consistently showed Michael Steele tied for Md's Senate seat in 2006, an election he lost by close to 10 points. So the SurveyUSA could be off. But i wish people on here would be consistent. We blast SurveyUSA when they show Mac up 2 in Fla. and 1 in MN. but when they show O up 8 in MO that's valid.
I agree with MDB1974, no run aways in Fla...when is thing going back yellow?

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syrac818:

As a obsessive poll watcher, I've learned to be very skeptical of Survey USA polls - whether I like the results or not. They are just consistently an outlier, and are almost regarded as a "discount" polling service by many politicos.

Not to completely discount it, I agree FL will be a very tight one. But as an Obama supporter, if there were one poll showing him trailing in FL, I'd want it to be a Survey USA poll.

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PortlandRocks:

Obama +1 in today's Gallop. More signs of the obama slide! LOL

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Tzal:

Doesn't the SUSA poll also have a 44% Republican, 40% Democrat breakdown? Is that really how it breaks down in FL? I wouldn't be surprised. FL is a weird state, so maybe McCain will get 22% of the AA vote there.

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OGLiberal:

SUSA is the only pollster regularly polling Florida who has not shown Obama in the lead in any of their polls. In late September, they had McCain up 48-47 so this is basically the same result. In August, they had McCain up 51-45. I couldn't find the cross-tabs for the September poll but in August, they had McCain getting 21% of the AA vote. This month, as noted by maddiekat, they have him getting 22% of that demographic's vote. AA voters in their polls represent 10% of the sample so that is somewhat significant. If you told me McCain was getting, say, 12% of the AA vote in Florida, I might say "maybe"....but 22%? No, not happening.

That said, no way Obama runs away with this state. And he doesn't really need it in order to win...it would just make things that much easier. McCain CANNNOT afford to lose Florida - no way, no how.

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Dave:

I wonder how much of a margin Obama needs to "win" in Florida...

I heard they're doing everything they can to make this election confusing. there are 13 different people running for president on the huge ballot... there were only 10 or 11 in 2000, and that was confusing enough.

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sunnymi:


Kerry got 86% of the AA vote in 2004 in FL.
Would anyone believe Obama will get less than that this year?

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CHill:

BoomKeys?

Trader Tried to Game Political Futures Market
"An internal investigation by the popular online market Intrade has revealed that one investor has been attempting to artificially boost the prediction that Sen. John McCain will become president," according to CQ Politics.

"Over the past several weeks, a single investor has pushed hundreds of thousands of dollars into the McCain-Obama market, the company said, resulting in great financial losses through a strategy that belies any financial motive."

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PortlandRocks:

Again, if he wins VA it's all irrelevant. FL is still Obama's in the average, the BEAUTIFUL thing about Obama's strategy..so many options.

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masselo:

Mccain is geeting 22% of the AA votes -- no way my friend . this poll has got to be wrong

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PortlandRocks:

Does anyone find it funny that all of the trolls disappeared.

Stories today.

Gallop up.
Hotline Obama up.
Zogby Obama up.
Rasmussen steady.

MO +6 Obama!
OH supreme court rules!

I mean, and they are GONE! Trolls? You there?

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NorthernObserver:

CNN just reported their FL poll as O 49 M 45.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

Creep, creep, creep...keep on creeping Mack!!

BTW,

FL Women Drift To Obama, FL Men Drift to McCain, But Overall, Sunshine State Stays Steady in SurveyUSA Tracking:

49% McCain (R)
47% Obama (D)
2% Other
2% Undecided

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billwy:

for what it's worth, SurveyUsa released a poll for Florida on this same day in 2004 showing Kerry ahead by 1. Bush won the state by 4, so they were off by 5. If they were off by five here that would jive with a growing list of pollsters showing Obama up between 1 and 4.

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Atomique:

You know where that 22% figure comes from? Say it with me: small sample sizes.

That SurveyUSA poll included 553 people. 10% of them, or about 55, were African Americans. 22% of THEM, or about 12 African Americans, said they would vote for John McCain.

Always keep this in mind when viewing the demographic breakdowns in polls. The margin of error for any one demographic group is larger than the margin of error for the poll as a whole, and much much larger if that demographic group is only a small minority of the populace.

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southern angler:

Hey Portland, most of the Repubs are at work paying taxes to actually take care of the countries buisness. Mystery solved.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

What's the matter Obamadroids? Ya'll sure sound pretty down today!

LMAO!!!!!

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southern angler:

I heard that Johnny Mac killed it last night on c span

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sotonightthatimightsee:

southern angler:

I heard that Johnny Mac killed it last night on c span

Dude, had he been this sharp and this funny since the election began..he'd be up 15%!!!!

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Atomique:

Huh? Nope, sorry, Team Obama is fired up and optimistic about our candidate's success in 18 days! Not that we're getting complacent, but we realize that things are not looking for for Bush III right now.

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Atomique:

"...looking *good* for...", rather.

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cinnamonape:

"FL is a weird state, so maybe McCain will get 22% of the AA vote there."

Well since many Cubans are black, and thus technically AA's maybe they have simply double-counted Hispanics and blacks?

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