October 6, 2008
FOX/Rasmussen: CO, FL, MO, OH, VA (10/5)
FOX News / Rasmussen
Mode: IVR
Colorado 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 51, McCain 45, Barr 1, Nader 1, McKinney 1
Florida 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 52, McCain 45, Nader 1, Barr 0, McKinney 0
Missouri 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 50, McCain 47, Barr 1, Nader 1, McKinney 0
Ohio 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
McCain 48, Obama 47, Barr 1, Nader 1, McKinney 0
Virginia 10/5, 1,000 LV 3%
Obama 50, McCain 48, Barr 1, Nader 0, McKinney 0
By Eric Dienstfrey on October 6, 2008 6:02 PM | Permalink
Comments
OK McP"al"inocchio you can take OHIO but gives us FL,VA and CO and let me know how you're going to win this thing
It's like Christmas in October.
McShame = Toast
I'm loving the Colorado #. It's my safety net with all Kerry states plus NM and IA. I don't think it will be that close.
I was sooo happy until I saw Ohio......Fail ;)
In Ohio Rassmussen's website hasnt been updated yet. I think pollster should have waited. The result from Ohio is from Sept not this month
I wouldn't worry about Ohio, Case students are getting registered by the truckload and early voting has just started, Ohio will be turning blue this fall, just need to make sure the other battlegrounds are on board for the coming Obama landslide 375 EVs is the bar people, don't settle for anything less
Well... more bad news for McCain. He's up on Ohio - within MOE - otherwise, I hope this is a pretty accurate representation.
What's with the big lead in Florida but down slightly in Ohio? Ah well, looks pretty good for Obama.
They rock back and forth but the straight line direction is to Obama.....day to day....eventually Ohio will cross over to Obama and not return....
Boom/Kip,
Please let me know how Darth Palin will fix this?
Your friend,
Obi-Wan
Obama up 7 in Florida? Holy crap.
The Virginia race is closer than I expected. I think Ohio may be as close as 2004.
Mccain certainly has to be concerned about the Colorado and Missouri numbers.
I dont see how the OH # is a FAIL based, especially on all the great news. Down just 1? Look at the BIG picture folks and ALL the polls in OH.
RCP Average 09/24 - 10/03 -- 48.2 45.2 Obama +3.0
Columbus Dispatch* 09/24 - 10/03 2262 LV 49 42 Obama +7
SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 50 42 Obama +8
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 47 45 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 48 McCain +1
Within margin of error nationally by 12/7/08 I garauntee it!
HOLY CRAP!!! Missouri is turning blue too! Everybody says "dont get too excited because theres 4 weeks left". Yeah, theres four weeks left for Obama to bring in some more red states!!!
@RS
In some places it is, partly. Early voting and all that.
Great news...
But WTF Ohio?!
If you act like Mississippi, we're going to treat you like Mississippi.
Is this what they meant by an October Surprise? Because I think I just peed a little bit.
@nemesis.......HAHAHAHAHA
These are great polls for Obama. They report Ohio staying the same as last week and I don't think anyone else thinks Ohio hasn't moved to Obama. This doesn't mean I am questioning their poll, it's just that sometimes you just don't get accurate results. With Virginia and Colorado firming up and now winning in Florida and possibly Missouri, it's looking good for Senator Obama and the Democrats. If we can keep it up for another month, this can be a great election with Republican carcasas litterd all over the battlefield. Which is what these sleazebags deserve.
McCain can keep Ohio... getting MO, VA, CO and FL = Landslide baby
How can VA be so far from the others which are 10 & 12???? This is why I take ALL polls with a grai of salt.
Average in the 2 point lead in virginia with the other 2 VA polls that came out today and you get...... GREAT NEWS FOR OBAMA!
@ AlanSnipes
Hey man, leave them alone, they never acted like pompous arrogant snotty little brats when they had control (SARCHASTIC)
Kind of surprised about OH, I wonder why they haven't swung to match other big movements. Still good for Obama as it previously was red and now is deadlocked. Other than that -- whoa. Obama is firmly in the driver's seat with 300+ EV in his column right now.
McBabie:
I think it IS time to excited. 4 weeks is nothing THIS late in the game. McCain has fires burning everywhere, and he can't possibly put them all out.
Voters minds are nearly made up. Numbers rarely move much between now and November. Historically speaking of course.
I am not sure if Ohio's number is the result for October. They were in the middle of updating as their web-site crashed.
These are Sunday polls and no cell phones folks so you can +3% to Obama, on the culturely, biased easily on these numbers.
Does anyone have the ID weighting is it different to the tracker?
Any Demographics?
Virginia will be close. Colorado will be close. Missouri will not be as close. FL will be close. NM will be close. NC will not be as close as polls are indicating now. OH will be close. And despite what the polls say in PA, it will be close. It's just too long to go before the election and a lot of people will change their minds or make up their minds. Nonetheless, a good day for Obama.
It will be interesting to see if this new line of attack "Do we know Barack Obama will pay off for McCain?"
The new zogby poll thats coming out Tuesday has Obama up by 10% in Ohio,the dem-corps poll has Obama up by 6%,so i think this rasmussen poll is full of it,also the zogby poll has Obama up by 12% in North-Carolina,14%in Penn,8%in Florida,10%in Colorado,3%in Indiana,13%in Virgina,and 8%in Nevada,but the zogby poll is full of it also because these numbers looks to big to believe.
No wonder why Palin was in Florida today, spiling her poison against Obama :-)
Ohio results are from last month. Their website has not been updated for Ohio :)
Probably too many visitors have caused the website crash, they are probably making tons of money out of their web advertising these days :)
Missouri is the shocker here. Most pollsters said that Missouri going Dem would indicate a landslide for Obama. Ohio is a sight glimmer of hope for McCain but everything else is very bad. One more thing, look at the sample sizes, pretty impressive.
This is a bad day for the Reps.
No doubt that Palin's debate performance did wonders in Florida :-)
Biden is going to visit MO this week. I imagine that indeed the campaign has seen the numbers moving :-)
New NBC/WSJ poll just released.
NBC/WSJ (9/12-22)
Obama 49 (48)
McCain 43 (46)
where are boomshak, boskop, kiptin, stillow, player, nevermetanhonestlib, greg from Charlotte and that nazi guy that was moving to Costa Rica (I forget his name)?
I HOPE OBAMA WINS IN A LANDSLIDE!
That will mean he has a mandate from the people to govern like he ran, as a MODERATE. If he governs like a LIBERAL, there will be hell to pay.
@boomshak
um, hell to pay? from who? the democratic controlled congress?
And here's the CNN poll with 3rd parties included (lead increases from 8 points to 11):
Obama 53
McCain 42
Barr 2
Nader 2
Last week:
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV
Obama 49 McCain 48, Obama +1
This week:
FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV
Obama 51 McCain 45, Obama +6
Obama passed the 50% treshold :-)
Both Virginia and Ohio numbers are identical to September results. I think their web-site has not updated these two states before it crashed.
Carl 29:
You damn right she was in Florida today. Every since Zogby said Obama would win California by 10 in the Democratic Primary, he has been really deemed unbelievable.
Polling is a hard job. I did it in college, and it is boring as hell. The IVR sys that Rasmussen uses gets complaints b/c it's automated, but polling either live or automated is not fun.
It's amazing people pay money to get polling results.
Well I hope he runs like a liberal except that he assigns the most liberal Supreme Court judges!
Just another nail in McFailin's coffin. Obama up 7% from a republican pollster in Florida? Now up 3% in MissouRAH.
Even though Ohio and Virginia are still very close. WHO CARES if Obama wins Florida. That just seals the deal right there.
This a bigger sample 1,000 per state Rasmussen has done himself proud.
I think the GOP can see this as terminal. They are going to start using their money for the Senate races.
Still would like to see some crosstabs
One of the best bits of this release is what _wasn't_ polled.
They stopped polling PA every Monday. They don't think it's a swing state anymore. :)
Hey Flashlight, don't be dissing Mississippi just yet. Rassmussen had the Magnolia State in the single digits with their Oct 30th Poll. There's still time for the Gulf Coast to come around!
The Ohio number wasn't great, but in totality, this collection of polls made my day!
add 3-5 pts for Obama on each state due to Rasmussen's absurd 2008 voter-modeling - Rasmussen still thinks 2004 voter composition will hold. This is patently ridiculous.
Rasmussen will be proven as the worst state-pollster this cycle.
Nope. Va and OH are correct according to realclearpolitics. This will be a dogfight. My plea to Obama supporters, when the polls tighten up...b/c we know they will. Please don't panic.
@ Tyle:
You beat me, I was just gonna say that :-)
This won't tighten up. Everyone's scared about the economy and by a decisive margin they trust Obama to address it. McCain's diversionary smear tactics will backfire because they underscore his lack of leadership in a crisis---the man's desperate to change the subject from the one overriding issue on everyone's mind. It's gonna be a landslide.
Mark in LA:
"Hey Flashlight, don't be dissing Mississippi just yet. Rassmussen had the Magnolia State in the single digits with their Oct 30th Poll. There's still time for the Gulf Coast to come around!
The Ohio number wasn't great, but in totality, this collection of polls made my day!"
Point taken. I should have gone with "Utah."
I am surprised in certain way, but no totally "shocked" by Obama's Florida numbers. This guy is investing resources, TV advertise, paid staff, voter registration. The operation in Florida is just unbelievable. The Obama campaign is all over the place registering voters. I saw them at the mall on Sunday, my husband(a college prof.) is approached by Obama people who want to walk around the classroom registering students, on Sunday there was a Jay-Z, Wy Clef concert to register voters. I mean, the whole nine-yards :-)
FOX confirms the numbers for OH and VA: http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/06/pub-fox-newsrasmussen-poll-obama-widens-lead-battleground-states/.
Flashlight:
I like to pick on Utah and Oklahoma, giving Oklahoma the edge because of their Neanderthal Senators.
@Boomshak
At last I almost agree with you. There's no great reason to believe Obama's running a Trojan horse ultra-liberal campaign. You guys always wanted to portray him as such, but look, for example, at his health care plan. Not particularly liberal. His willingness to compromise and his independence from lobbyists suggest a smart, flexible guy.
I'm just hoping he's as reform-minded as he appears to be.
I had once hoped that Dubya would realize he had no mandate whatever and be less of a rabid neocon, but no such luck.
Of course, your definition of a liberal is different than mine. I'm a liberal, but not a knee-jerk ultra-liberal.
LOOKS LIKE THE FAT LADY IS GETTING READY TO SING, AND IT'S GONNA BE A LOUD ONE !!!
Carl29
I live in LA (Lower Alabama) but have been volunteering and hosting "Feral Hog Barbeques for Obama" in LA, MO, and the Panhandle of Florida, which is a GOP stronghold. I can confirm, Obama's ground game is beyond anything you can imagine in the Sunshine State.
Well there is no strict definition for Liberal/Conservative anyway. All these people claiming to be conservatives now are chicken liberals compared to conservatives of 50's. Which one of conservatives now believes in segregation? Almost all did in 50's. 50 years from now almost all conservatives will be pro-abortion yet they will still call themselves conservatives...
It looks like republicans have crashed the Rasmussen site! When they saw the real numbers on Ohio, they just couln't handle it!
@jcpok
+3-5% Obama also no cell phones and Sunday polling easily +3%
WOW! CO, FL, and VA look like they are about to flip. MO and OH not too far behind. No wonder the McCain/Palin people are throwing the kitchen sink at Obama today. We are going past landslide into full blown avalanche here!
It's becoming apparent that McSame is no match for Obama and that is was no fluke that he kicked Hillary arse.
No worries ... new Washington Post poll has Obama +6 in Ohio.
Mark & Flashlight:
*sigh* You're right. If anybody wants to see what a cruel joke Republican politics are, they should come here and try to order a beer. A real beer with 5.0 percent alcohol content. I'm living vicariously through this Web site. Carry on.
ABC/WP poll OH O51 MC45
Yes, Mark in LA. A fantastic ground game that is paying off state after state. Obama has a great groundgame in MO, back then it seemed as a long, long shot, but see where things are now. The Obama campaign is ready to fight everywhere, anytime :-)
If sarah Palin's 17 year old daughter would not listen to her mother's teaching of abstinence and morality. Who the heck is she to be preaching reform to the nation? Charity begins at home, she need to reform her home first before making noise !!
When are people going to realize Obama is a frigen (SMART) I accept that is difficult for red states to understand!!!
What a pretty blue updated map!
Listen Up guys!!!!
In Virginia: "Of the new voters already registered, 42 percent were under the age of 25."
Obama/Biden '08
The clock is starting to run out on McCain. It's still possible he could turn this thing around but it took Obama 3 weeks to build these leads with more undecideds & leaners out there. If McCain started to reverse the trends TODAY I think it would be very unlikely he could pull even by the election.
McCain needs a miracle... I'm sure before the election the Pentagon and/or CIA will release a Bin Laden tape or produce Bin Laden himself. It'll be interesting to see how much that actually affects the race. 7 years out from 9/11 I'm not sure the fear mongering has enough power to help McCain catch up.
@fed:
ABC/WP poll OH O51 MC45
Have you got a link?
@Carlita29
Where is the Virginia quote from?
From NBC/WSJ poll regarding little miss ignorance as VP:
-----------------------------------------
The poll also comes after the first presidential and vice-presidential debates. While analysts and pundits might disagree over the performances, the survey finds that there was a clear winner among voters: Obama-Biden. By a 50-29 percent margin, respondents say Obama and Biden bested their GOP opponents at the debates.
In particular, Biden saw his poll numbers rise after his debate against Alaska Palin. Two weeks ago, 64 percent said that the Delaware senator was qualified to be president if the need arises. The number has now jumped to 74 percent. By comparison, just 41 believe that Palin is qualified to be president, which is virtually unchanged from the last survey.
Can we hope for picking up North Carolina? That would be terrific, to see blue spreading into the Carolinas and deep into Confederate territory. Proof that the Confederacy itself is history, not part of the present.
The ABC/WP poll for OH: http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=5963651&page=1
Wow... these are good numbers for Obama -- other than OH, which seems a bit out of whack according to other recent polling.
I remember just a few weeks ago, I read reports that he should scale back in MO and FL and focus on NM and CO in order to squeak into office.
His efforts in MO and FL are apparently paying off, big time.
@Basil:
@Boomshak
"At last I almost agree with you. There's no great reason to believe Obama's running a Trojan horse ultra-liberal campaign. You guys always wanted to portray him as such, but look, for example, at his health care plan. Not particularly liberal. His willingness to compromise and his independence from lobbyists suggest a smart, flexible guy."
Oh yeah, Obama is flexible. Look at how different his positions are now that when he was running in the primaries trying to get Democrat-only votes.
"Flexible" is his middle name.
But like i said, if he wins with a mandate, he MUST govern as he ran.
You know, actually, right now I think America needs a POTUS with a mandate. Tough times ahead and a divided electorate won't help.
Oh what will the Democrats do when they actually have to TAKE RESPONSIBILITY for everything? No Bush, no mean old Republicans to blame. Sink or swim, it will ALL be on them.
Meanwhile, we can brew a whole new crop of exciting young Republicans to run against your Congress in 2 years. Sometimes it's fun to be the opposition party, kind of clears the head, gets you back to basics.
POLLSTER HAS IT AT 296 WOOHOOOO!
Keep knockin on doors and makin calls, lets bring it on home!!!!
Obama gets to oversee the implementation of the TURD SANDWICH! Oh boy!
You know, I am really beginning to think this whole thing is a evil plot by the Karl Rove to put you guys in charge of the Recession. It's BRILLIANT!
WOW WOW WOW WOW and WOW! Big samples too! Ok, so i have a question for you more technical types that may not be new at this like me.
Is it possible that Obamas support is understated and that the bigger the sample the better he will do? I think i can pretty concretely say that his support is understated in many ways for many demographics (im young, myself) but I believe ive always seen a pattern because the bigger the sample the bigger the lead.
RCP is a joke..first they include a dem corps because it showed a smaller margin this week (unlike last week), now there excluding a marist poll because it shows a much bigger margin than last week.
Go Obama! Win big so you have to govern as a MODERATE! Do it! Get that mandate baby!
The when you veer hard left the whole country can say a collective, "What the f*ck???!".
@BOOMSMACK
Are you serious?
You would trust John McCain with the nu-cleee-urrr codes??? How about Sarah Palin, does she seem trustworthy to you??? You guys are winners, giving up 29 days before an election, like rats jumping ship!!!
@drinkwine247:
Barack Obama, Captain of the Titanic!
I kinda like the ring of that! I may even vote for him.
If Obama will govern from the middle, he may actually become a great President.
That's a BIG IF.
Boomshak go fishing for the next 4 weeeks, it is all over.
Poor boomshak...
It's OK, Obama can handle it.
"evil plot by Karl Rove to put you guys in charge of the Recession . . . "
If so, it's a really dumb move by Rove and company. The economy is tanking now, on Bush's watch. People will remember that. Obama will have four years to turn it around. If the economy bottoms out and starts an upward climb any time before early- to mid-2012, Obama's a hero and wins reelection in a second landslide. We're talking possible realignment here.
Do you guys think that Obama will govern as a MODERATE or as a LIBERAL? Can he totally change his stripes with the full backing of a LIBERAL CONGRESS? A man who has been to the far left all his life. When he finally gets hs big chance to rule, gives up his LIBERAL core?
Maybe Obama can defy human nature as well as Mother Nature.
I can see the Headlines a year from now:
"DID OBAMA LAY A-BOMBA?"
Boom, your behavior inspires a mix of amused/impressed reaction on my part. Man...you really need to take a break. This campaign is driving you "nuts." I mean, drink a cup of chamomile tea and go to bed. Tomorrow will be another day, another drama.
CBS News (9/27-30)
Obama 48 (50)
McCain 45 (41)
You've gotta love CBS. They are trying so desperately to grab attention with each of their polls.
Election night is going to be soooo much fun.
I'll be as excited watching Palin and her snowbilly clan weep as those the pasty white wingnuts get when they imagine her astride an ATV shooting bunny rabbits with an automatic weapon.
McCain won't even be able to say he's proud of the campaign he ran. (Though he'll say he is anyway.)
Worth a listen and a watch for an overview.
Well the Rasmussen site is back up. With regards Ohio by maths Women have been slightly underpolled and the ID weighting appears to be about right to 2004 and things may have moved on which might be the flaw: "Ninety percent (90%) of Ohio Republicans back McCain while Obama has the support of 85% of Democratic voters. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided."
The exit in 2004 was 40%R 35%D 25% I
Kerry won more independents than Bush.
OMFG!
CBS Poll, Obama 47, McCain 43!
Democrats - 37%
Republicans - 28%
So the poll gives you guys a 9 point sampling advantage and STILL Obama only leads by 4?
OUCHERS!
Maybe the Ayers thing is starting to stick?
"POLLSTER HAS IT AT 296 WOOHOOOO!
Keep knockin on doors and makin calls, lets bring it on home!!!!"
That's awesome. I hope McCain is crushed so bad that it brings down the GOP for good.
I would love to watch FOX. See Hannity´s face that night!!!!
political_junkie how do you know that the ohio numbers are from last month ?
Carl29 this is a different (boom) Boom
Washington post just in.
51 Obama 45 McCain
In Ohio ... sample taken 03 - 05 October.
FOX/Rasmussen poll just a blip.
"Do you guys think that Obama will govern as a MODERATE or as a LIBERAL?"
I hope he governs as a Liberal, because we've seen what happens when people govern as a conservative.
@Boomshak: Lincoln inherited a country on the verge of civil war and is widely considered the greatest president.
If Obama rises to the challenge and steers our country to greater and sustainable prosperity, he will be remembered as a great president and the Republican party will be in the wilderness for a generation at least.
Boomshak mocks Obama for being captain of the Titanic. Hmmm. . . so who was it that ran us into the iceberg, again?
I don't mind spirited right-wing commentary. But it makes me sick to hear them, after the "center-Right nation" has finally, decisively repudiated them, to step back and cackle at what a complete mess they have left their successors. People are hurting badly, and will continue to hurt for years, because of Bush's party for the rich. And all you can do, Boom, is gloat that Obama will get blamed for not making the disaster go away instantly. For shame.
OMFG!
CBS Poll, Obama 47, McCain 43!
Among Likely Voters the lead is down to 3!
@Guy Fawkes:
"Boomshak mocks Obama for being captain of the Titanic. Hmmm. . . so who was it that ran us into the iceberg, again?"
The Democrats who blocked reform of Fannie Mae, next question.
Obama's ahead by 3 in Missouri, but down by 1 in Ohio?
I guess MOE explains that.
Posted on October 6, 2008 6:06 PM