Pollster.com

Obama's ahead by 3 in Missouri, but down by 1 in Ohio?

I guess MOE explains that.

OK McP"al"inocchio you can take OHIO but gives us FL,VA and CO and let me know how you're going to win this thing

It's like Christmas in October.

McShame = Toast

I'm loving the Colorado #. It's my safety net with all Kerry states plus NM and IA. I don't think it will be that close.

I was sooo happy until I saw Ohio......Fail ;)

In Ohio Rassmussen's website hasnt been updated yet. I think pollster should have waited. The result from Ohio is from Sept not this month

I wouldn't worry about Ohio, Case students are getting registered by the truckload and early voting has just started, Ohio will be turning blue this fall, just need to make sure the other battlegrounds are on board for the coming Obama landslide 375 EVs is the bar people, don't settle for anything less

Well... more bad news for McCain. He's up on Ohio - within MOE - otherwise, I hope this is a pretty accurate representation.

What's with the big lead in Florida but down slightly in Ohio? Ah well, looks pretty good for Obama.

...unfortunately, the election is not held tomorrow :-(

They rock back and forth but the straight line direction is to Obama.....day to day....eventually Ohio will cross over to Obama and not return....

Boom/Kip,

Please let me know how Darth Palin will fix this?

Your friend,

Obi-Wan

Obama up 7 in Florida? Holy crap.

The Virginia race is closer than I expected. I think Ohio may be as close as 2004.

Mccain certainly has to be concerned about the Colorado and Missouri numbers.

I dont see how the OH # is a FAIL based, especially on all the great news. Down just 1? Look at the BIG picture folks and ALL the polls in OH.

RCP Average 09/24 - 10/03 -- 48.2 45.2 Obama +3.0
Columbus Dispatch* 09/24 - 10/03 2262 LV 49 42 Obama +7
SurveyUSA 09/28 - 09/29 693 LV 48 49 McCain +1
Quinnipiac 09/27 - 09/29 825 LV 50 42 Obama +8
InAdv/PollPosition 09/29 - 09/29 512 LV 47 45 Obama +2
FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV 47 48 McCain +1

Within margin of error nationally by 12/7/08 I garauntee it!

HOLY CRAP!!! Missouri is turning blue too! Everybody says "dont get too excited because theres 4 weeks left". Yeah, theres four weeks left for Obama to bring in some more red states!!!

@RS

In some places it is, partly. Early voting and all that.

Great news...

But WTF Ohio?!

If you act like Mississippi, we're going to treat you like Mississippi.

Is this what they meant by an October Surprise? Because I think I just peed a little bit.

@nemesis.......HAHAHAHAHA

These are great polls for Obama. They report Ohio staying the same as last week and I don't think anyone else thinks Ohio hasn't moved to Obama. This doesn't mean I am questioning their poll, it's just that sometimes you just don't get accurate results. With Virginia and Colorado firming up and now winning in Florida and possibly Missouri, it's looking good for Senator Obama and the Democrats. If we can keep it up for another month, this can be a great election with Republican carcasas litterd all over the battlefield. Which is what these sleazebags deserve.

McCain can keep Ohio... getting MO, VA, CO and FL = Landslide baby

How can VA be so far from the others which are 10 & 12???? This is why I take ALL polls with a grai of salt.

Average in the 2 point lead in virginia with the other 2 VA polls that came out today and you get...... GREAT NEWS FOR OBAMA!

@ AlanSnipes

Hey man, leave them alone, they never acted like pompous arrogant snotty little brats when they had control (SARCHASTIC)

Kind of surprised about OH, I wonder why they haven't swung to match other big movements. Still good for Obama as it previously was red and now is deadlocked. Other than that -- whoa. Obama is firmly in the driver's seat with 300+ EV in his column right now.

McBabie:

I think it IS time to excited. 4 weeks is nothing THIS late in the game. McCain has fires burning everywhere, and he can't possibly put them all out.

Voters minds are nearly made up. Numbers rarely move much between now and November. Historically speaking of course.

I am not sure if Ohio's number is the result for October. They were in the middle of updating as their web-site crashed.

These are Sunday polls and no cell phones folks so you can +3% to Obama, on the culturely, biased easily on these numbers.

Does anyone have the ID weighting is it different to the tracker?

Any Demographics?

Virginia will be close. Colorado will be close. Missouri will not be as close. FL will be close. NM will be close. NC will not be as close as polls are indicating now. OH will be close. And despite what the polls say in PA, it will be close. It's just too long to go before the election and a lot of people will change their minds or make up their minds. Nonetheless, a good day for Obama.

It will be interesting to see if this new line of attack "Do we know Barack Obama will pay off for McCain?"

The new zogby poll thats coming out Tuesday has Obama up by 10% in Ohio,the dem-corps poll has Obama up by 6%,so i think this rasmussen poll is full of it,also the zogby poll has Obama up by 12% in North-Carolina,14%in Penn,8%in Florida,10%in Colorado,3%in Indiana,13%in Virgina,and 8%in Nevada,but the zogby poll is full of it also because these numbers looks to big to believe.

No wonder why Palin was in Florida today, spiling her poison against Obama :-)

Ohio results are from last month. Their website has not been updated for Ohio :)
Probably too many visitors have caused the website crash, they are probably making tons of money out of their web advertising these days :)

Missouri is the shocker here. Most pollsters said that Missouri going Dem would indicate a landslide for Obama. Ohio is a sight glimmer of hope for McCain but everything else is very bad. One more thing, look at the sample sizes, pretty impressive.

This is a bad day for the Reps.

No doubt that Palin's debate performance did wonders in Florida :-)

Biden is going to visit MO this week. I imagine that indeed the campaign has seen the numbers moving :-)

New NBC/WSJ poll just released.

NBC/WSJ (9/12-22)
Obama 49 (48)
McCain 43 (46)

where are boomshak, boskop, kiptin, stillow, player, nevermetanhonestlib, greg from Charlotte and that nazi guy that was moving to Costa Rica (I forget his name)?

I HOPE OBAMA WINS IN A LANDSLIDE!

That will mean he has a mandate from the people to govern like he ran, as a MODERATE. If he governs like a LIBERAL, there will be hell to pay.

@boomshak

um, hell to pay? from who? the democratic controlled congress?

And here's the CNN poll with 3rd parties included (lead increases from 8 points to 11):

Obama 53
McCain 42
Barr 2
Nader 2

Last week:

FOX News/Rasmussen 09/28 - 09/28 500 LV
Obama 49 McCain 48, Obama +1

This week:

FOX News/Rasmussen 10/05 - 10/05 1000 LV
Obama 51 McCain 45, Obama +6

Obama passed the 50% treshold :-)

Both Virginia and Ohio numbers are identical to September results. I think their web-site has not updated these two states before it crashed.

Carl 29:

You damn right she was in Florida today. Every since Zogby said Obama would win California by 10 in the Democratic Primary, he has been really deemed unbelievable.

Polling is a hard job. I did it in college, and it is boring as hell. The IVR sys that Rasmussen uses gets complaints b/c it's automated, but polling either live or automated is not fun.

It's amazing people pay money to get polling results.

Well I hope he runs like a liberal except that he assigns the most liberal Supreme Court judges!

Just another nail in McFailin's coffin. Obama up 7% from a republican pollster in Florida? Now up 3% in MissouRAH.

Even though Ohio and Virginia are still very close. WHO CARES if Obama wins Florida. That just seals the deal right there.

This a bigger sample 1,000 per state Rasmussen has done himself proud.

I think the GOP can see this as terminal. They are going to start using their money for the Senate races.

Still would like to see some crosstabs

One of the best bits of this release is what _wasn't_ polled.

They stopped polling PA every Monday. They don't think it's a swing state anymore. :)

Hey Flashlight, don't be dissing Mississippi just yet. Rassmussen had the Magnolia State in the single digits with their Oct 30th Poll. There's still time for the Gulf Coast to come around!
The Ohio number wasn't great, but in totality, this collection of polls made my day!

add 3-5 pts for Obama on each state due to Rasmussen's absurd 2008 voter-modeling - Rasmussen still thinks 2004 voter composition will hold. This is patently ridiculous.

Rasmussen will be proven as the worst state-pollster this cycle.

Nope. Va and OH are correct according to realclearpolitics. This will be a dogfight. My plea to Obama supporters, when the polls tighten up...b/c we know they will. Please don't panic.

@ Tyle:
You beat me, I was just gonna say that :-)

This won't tighten up. Everyone's scared about the economy and by a decisive margin they trust Obama to address it. McCain's diversionary smear tactics will backfire because they underscore his lack of leadership in a crisis---the man's desperate to change the subject from the one overriding issue on everyone's mind. It's gonna be a landslide.

Mark in LA:
"Hey Flashlight, don't be dissing Mississippi just yet. Rassmussen had the Magnolia State in the single digits with their Oct 30th Poll. There's still time for the Gulf Coast to come around!
The Ohio number wasn't great, but in totality, this collection of polls made my day!"

Point taken. I should have gone with "Utah."

I am surprised in certain way, but no totally "shocked" by Obama's Florida numbers. This guy is investing resources, TV advertise, paid staff, voter registration. The operation in Florida is just unbelievable. The Obama campaign is all over the place registering voters. I saw them at the mall on Sunday, my husband(a college prof.) is approached by Obama people who want to walk around the classroom registering students, on Sunday there was a Jay-Z, Wy Clef concert to register voters. I mean, the whole nine-yards :-)

FOX confirms the numbers for OH and VA: http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/06/pub-fox-newsrasmussen-poll-obama-widens-lead-battleground-states/.

Flashlight:
I like to pick on Utah and Oklahoma, giving Oklahoma the edge because of their Neanderthal Senators.

@Boomshak

At last I almost agree with you. There's no great reason to believe Obama's running a Trojan horse ultra-liberal campaign. You guys always wanted to portray him as such, but look, for example, at his health care plan. Not particularly liberal. His willingness to compromise and his independence from lobbyists suggest a smart, flexible guy.

I'm just hoping he's as reform-minded as he appears to be.

I had once hoped that Dubya would realize he had no mandate whatever and be less of a rabid neocon, but no such luck.

Of course, your definition of a liberal is different than mine. I'm a liberal, but not a knee-jerk ultra-liberal.

LOOKS LIKE THE FAT LADY IS GETTING READY TO SING, AND IT'S GONNA BE A LOUD ONE !!!

Carl29
I live in LA (Lower Alabama) but have been volunteering and hosting "Feral Hog Barbeques for Obama" in LA, MO, and the Panhandle of Florida, which is a GOP stronghold. I can confirm, Obama's ground game is beyond anything you can imagine in the Sunshine State.

Well there is no strict definition for Liberal/Conservative anyway. All these people claiming to be conservatives now are chicken liberals compared to conservatives of 50's. Which one of conservatives now believes in segregation? Almost all did in 50's. 50 years from now almost all conservatives will be pro-abortion yet they will still call themselves conservatives...

It looks like republicans have crashed the Rasmussen site! When they saw the real numbers on Ohio, they just couln't handle it!

@jcpok

+3-5% Obama also no cell phones and Sunday polling easily +3%

WOW! CO, FL, and VA look like they are about to flip. MO and OH not too far behind. No wonder the McCain/Palin people are throwing the kitchen sink at Obama today. We are going past landslide into full blown avalanche here!

It's becoming apparent that McSame is no match for Obama and that is was no fluke that he kicked Hillary arse.

No worries ... new Washington Post poll has Obama +6 in Ohio.

Mark & Flashlight:

*sigh* You're right. If anybody wants to see what a cruel joke Republican politics are, they should come here and try to order a beer. A real beer with 5.0 percent alcohol content. I'm living vicariously through this Web site. Carry on.

ABC/WP poll OH O51 MC45

Yes, Mark in LA. A fantastic ground game that is paying off state after state. Obama has a great groundgame in MO, back then it seemed as a long, long shot, but see where things are now. The Obama campaign is ready to fight everywhere, anytime :-)

If sarah Palin's 17 year old daughter would not listen to her mother's teaching of abstinence and morality. Who the heck is she to be preaching reform to the nation? Charity begins at home, she need to reform her home first before making noise !!

When are people going to realize Obama is a frigen (SMART) I accept that is difficult for red states to understand!!!

What a pretty blue updated map!

Listen Up guys!!!!

In Virginia: "Of the new voters already registered, 42 percent were under the age of 25."

Obama/Biden '08

The clock is starting to run out on McCain. It's still possible he could turn this thing around but it took Obama 3 weeks to build these leads with more undecideds & leaners out there. If McCain started to reverse the trends TODAY I think it would be very unlikely he could pull even by the election.

McCain needs a miracle... I'm sure before the election the Pentagon and/or CIA will release a Bin Laden tape or produce Bin Laden himself. It'll be interesting to see how much that actually affects the race. 7 years out from 9/11 I'm not sure the fear mongering has enough power to help McCain catch up.

@fed:
ABC/WP poll OH O51 MC45

Have you got a link?

@Carlita29

Where is the Virginia quote from?

From NBC/WSJ poll regarding little miss ignorance as VP:

-----------------------------------------
The poll also comes after the first presidential and vice-presidential debates. While analysts and pundits might disagree over the performances, the survey finds that there was a clear winner among voters: Obama-Biden. By a 50-29 percent margin, respondents say Obama and Biden bested their GOP opponents at the debates.

In particular, Biden saw his poll numbers rise after his debate against Alaska Palin. Two weeks ago, 64 percent said that the Delaware senator was qualified to be president if the need arises. The number has now jumped to 74 percent. By comparison, just 41 believe that Palin is qualified to be president, which is virtually unchanged from the last survey.

Can we hope for picking up North Carolina? That would be terrific, to see blue spreading into the Carolinas and deep into Confederate territory. Proof that the Confederacy itself is history, not part of the present.

The ABC/WP poll for OH: http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Politics/story?id=5963651&page=1

Wow... these are good numbers for Obama -- other than OH, which seems a bit out of whack according to other recent polling.

I remember just a few weeks ago, I read reports that he should scale back in MO and FL and focus on NM and CO in order to squeak into office.

His efforts in MO and FL are apparently paying off, big time.

@Basil:
@Boomshak

"At last I almost agree with you. There's no great reason to believe Obama's running a Trojan horse ultra-liberal campaign. You guys always wanted to portray him as such, but look, for example, at his health care plan. Not particularly liberal. His willingness to compromise and his independence from lobbyists suggest a smart, flexible guy."

Oh yeah, Obama is flexible. Look at how different his positions are now that when he was running in the primaries trying to get Democrat-only votes.

"Flexible" is his middle name.

But like i said, if he wins with a mandate, he MUST govern as he ran.

You know, actually, right now I think America needs a POTUS with a mandate. Tough times ahead and a divided electorate won't help.

Oh what will the Democrats do when they actually have to TAKE RESPONSIBILITY for everything? No Bush, no mean old Republicans to blame. Sink or swim, it will ALL be on them.

Meanwhile, we can brew a whole new crop of exciting young Republicans to run against your Congress in 2 years. Sometimes it's fun to be the opposition party, kind of clears the head, gets you back to basics.

POLLSTER HAS IT AT 296 WOOHOOOO!
Keep knockin on doors and makin calls, lets bring it on home!!!!

Obama gets to oversee the implementation of the TURD SANDWICH! Oh boy!

You know, I am really beginning to think this whole thing is a evil plot by the Karl Rove to put you guys in charge of the Recession. It's BRILLIANT!

WOW WOW WOW WOW and WOW! Big samples too! Ok, so i have a question for you more technical types that may not be new at this like me.

Is it possible that Obamas support is understated and that the bigger the sample the better he will do? I think i can pretty concretely say that his support is understated in many ways for many demographics (im young, myself) but I believe ive always seen a pattern because the bigger the sample the bigger the lead.

thoughtful,

From the Associated Press:

http://www.wavy.com/Global/story.asp?S=9128731

RCP is a joke..first they include a dem corps because it showed a smaller margin this week (unlike last week), now there excluding a marist poll because it shows a much bigger margin than last week.

Go Obama! Win big so you have to govern as a MODERATE! Do it! Get that mandate baby!

The when you veer hard left the whole country can say a collective, "What the f*ck???!".

@BOOMSMACK

Are you serious?

You would trust John McCain with the nu-cleee-urrr codes??? How about Sarah Palin, does she seem trustworthy to you??? You guys are winners, giving up 29 days before an election, like rats jumping ship!!!

@drinkwine247:

Barack Obama, Captain of the Titanic!

I kinda like the ring of that! I may even vote for him.

If Obama will govern from the middle, he may actually become a great President.

That's a BIG IF.

Boomshak go fishing for the next 4 weeeks, it is all over.

Poor boomshak...

It's OK, Obama can handle it.

"evil plot by Karl Rove to put you guys in charge of the Recession . . . "

If so, it's a really dumb move by Rove and company. The economy is tanking now, on Bush's watch. People will remember that. Obama will have four years to turn it around. If the economy bottoms out and starts an upward climb any time before early- to mid-2012, Obama's a hero and wins reelection in a second landslide. We're talking possible realignment here.

Do you guys think that Obama will govern as a MODERATE or as a LIBERAL? Can he totally change his stripes with the full backing of a LIBERAL CONGRESS? A man who has been to the far left all his life. When he finally gets hs big chance to rule, gives up his LIBERAL core?

Maybe Obama can defy human nature as well as Mother Nature.

I can see the Headlines a year from now:

"DID OBAMA LAY A-BOMBA?"

Boom, your behavior inspires a mix of amused/impressed reaction on my part. Man...you really need to take a break. This campaign is driving you "nuts." I mean, drink a cup of chamomile tea and go to bed. Tomorrow will be another day, another drama.

CBS News (9/27-30)
Obama 48 (50)
McCain 45 (41)

You've gotta love CBS. They are trying so desperately to grab attention with each of their polls.

Election night is going to be soooo much fun.

I'll be as excited watching Palin and her snowbilly clan weep as those the pasty white wingnuts get when they imagine her astride an ATV shooting bunny rabbits with an automatic weapon.

McCain won't even be able to say he's proud of the campaign he ran. (Though he'll say he is anyway.)

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/content/view/video_portal/(site_id)/bc846197-b87a-4481-8dad-b7c6e984be18/(channel)/Rasmussen%20Reports/(clipid)/2240_AU100608

Worth a listen and a watch for an overview.

Well the Rasmussen site is back up. With regards Ohio by maths Women have been slightly underpolled and the ID weighting appears to be about right to 2004 and things may have moved on which might be the flaw: "Ninety percent (90%) of Ohio Republicans back McCain while Obama has the support of 85% of Democratic voters. Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided."

The exit in 2004 was 40%R 35%D 25% I

Kerry won more independents than Bush.

OMFG!

CBS Poll, Obama 47, McCain 43!

Democrats - 37%
Republicans - 28%

So the poll gives you guys a 9 point sampling advantage and STILL Obama only leads by 4?

OUCHERS!

Maybe the Ayers thing is starting to stick?

"POLLSTER HAS IT AT 296 WOOHOOOO!
Keep knockin on doors and makin calls, lets bring it on home!!!!"

That's awesome. I hope McCain is crushed so bad that it brings down the GOP for good.

I would love to watch FOX. See Hannity´s face that night!!!!

political_junkie how do you know that the ohio numbers are from last month ?

Carl29 this is a different (boom) Boom

Washington post just in.

51 Obama 45 McCain

In Ohio ... sample taken 03 - 05 October.

FOX/Rasmussen poll just a blip.

"Do you guys think that Obama will govern as a MODERATE or as a LIBERAL?"

I hope he governs as a Liberal, because we've seen what happens when people govern as a conservative.

@Boomshak: Lincoln inherited a country on the verge of civil war and is widely considered the greatest president.

If Obama rises to the challenge and steers our country to greater and sustainable prosperity, he will be remembered as a great president and the Republican party will be in the wilderness for a generation at least.

Boomshak mocks Obama for being captain of the Titanic. Hmmm. . . so who was it that ran us into the iceberg, again?

I don't mind spirited right-wing commentary. But it makes me sick to hear them, after the "center-Right nation" has finally, decisively repudiated them, to step back and cackle at what a complete mess they have left their successors. People are hurting badly, and will continue to hurt for years, because of Bush's party for the rich. And all you can do, Boom, is gloat that Obama will get blamed for not making the disaster go away instantly. For shame.

OMFG!

CBS Poll, Obama 47, McCain 43!

Among Likely Voters the lead is down to 3!

@Guy Fawkes:

"Boomshak mocks Obama for being captain of the Titanic. Hmmm. . . so who was it that ran us into the iceberg, again?"

The Democrats who blocked reform of Fannie Mae, next question.

Boom,

You seem to think there's a Bait and Switch here. He's a liberal. He's black. He wants universal healthcare. He wants to end the war. And... he's winning. Where's the deception?

I suppose you can make stuff up and say he's going to surrender to Cuba or nationalize the oil companies or something... but well, you'd just be making stuff up.... oh wait...

boomshack,

the democrats are more than happy to take on the giant mess that your party created. we will take responsibility as opposed to the administration of no accountability.

and ill tell you what, if in 4 years things have gotten worse, than you have an argument, but until then you dont have a leg to stand on my friend, because the republicans deserve the blame that they are getting.

CBS, which last week was the bastion of godless liberal polling, is now the hope of the right. OMFG Boomshack!!!! Comeback!!!

:D God Boom makes me laugh (wipes tears from eyes). Thanks boom - been a long day!

Wtih the Washington Post Poll out on Ohio as with a few others released in the last couple of days, I am confident that Senator Obama is 5-7 points ahead in Ohio.
The Rasmussen poll is just a little outlier but I don't believe intentionally so. After all, they report Obama up by 7 in Florida and Flroida and Ohio would not be significantly different.

Boom,

Just days ago you were certain that McCain would be tied in the polls.

Why won't you admit that the Obama surge is working?????

boomshak,
Problem is, you believe the Republicans' own horsesh** rhetoric. Obama has never been "far left." Never. He was the moderate candidate for president of the Harvard Law Review and according to all reports worked with both the left and right on that august but (at the time) ideologically divided journal even-handedly. He was elected to the state senate from one of the most liberal districts in Illinois but reached out to Republicans to pass common-sense, non-ideological legislation. In the U.S. Senate he's co-sponsored major legislation with centrist Republican leaders like Richard Lugar (R-IN)---who by the way has stayed neutral in the presidential race, suggesting a certain respect for Obama---as well as far right-wingers like Tom Coburn (R-OK), with whom he cosponsored an extremely valuable and non-ideological measure requiring transparency in government contracts, described by some leading non-partisan reformers as the most important transparency-in-government legislation since the Freedom of Information Act. By nature he's a pragmatist, not an ideologue; that's the story of his entire career. He'll solicit input from all quarters, demand the best information on which to base a decision, and seek pragmatic solutions. His agenda includes expanding access to health care, raising living standards for working Americans, educating young people for the economy of the future, and reestablishing a badly frayed network of alliances, diplomatic relations, and respect for an America that stands for high principles again. I suppose to you that might make him a "liberal," but I think a lot of moderates, including a lot of republicans, actually share those goals.

NBC/WSJ Poll, Obama lead down to 6! Obama is experiencing shrinkae even in MSM polls that oversample Democrats to rediculous levels!

It's the McCain comeback express! Lol!

CBS +4, NBC +6. Wowsers!

Both FL and NC have amazing ground games for Obama. If McCain's down 5+ in both of these places come ED, he's toast. That said, the Republican machinery (figuratively and literally) will be in full effect here in FL. Gotta keep a big cushion to make sure we bring it home. Either FL or OH or VA falls blue, it's over.

That's 3 new MSM uber-liberal polls out today showing the lead down to 6, 4 and 3.

OMG, Obama is cracking under scrutiny!

hheheheheh

boomer,

Kudos for finding a silver lining in the undeniably dark cloud descending over your guy.

You might be right about the Ayers stuff: if it sticks, Obama could win fewer than 350 electoral votes.

Even before the credit-market meltdown, this thing was the Democrats' to lose. In the last month McCain's chances of turning it around have gone from slim to virtually nil.

The only question is whether he goes down with dignity. I have sufficient residual respect for the man to hope he does.

BOOMSHAK:
"Maybe the Ayers thing is starting to stick?"
Ahhh the lovely delusional BOOM :-)

Are you making more predictions?
Are you going to blame McCain's campaign stupidity when it turns out to be wrong again instead of your own's? Like the way you blamed them for your own stupid predicition of tie on Monday?

Boomshak:

When Obama being ahead by 4 or 6 points is good news for you, you have to realize that your candidate is toast.

boomshak, man you are really histerical :-)

These are NBC/WSJ polls:

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/04 - 10/05 658 RV
Obama 49 McCain 43 Obama +6

NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 09/19 - 09/22 1085 RV Obama 48 McCain 46, Obama +2

Obama was up by 2% in Sept. 22, now Obama is up by 6%? Where is the down side?

HEY OBOZONAUTS, RIDDLE ME THIS:

1. Obama "didn't know" William Ayers had been a terrorist when he worked with him.
2. Obama "didn't know" Reverend Wright was a radical bigot even though he attended his church for 20 years and everyone else in the church knew.
3. Obama "didn't know" Rezko was a crook when he got a sweetheart deal on same land.

I think we have one of two choices here. Either Obama is LYING, or he is a FOOL. I don't think Obama is a fool.

MY QUESTION:
You guys think Obama is such a GENIUS. How the hell could a genius know all of these men and yet know nothing of their bad activities?

Once upon a time there was a troll named Boomy. Like all trolls he lived under a bridge. The bridge was called "To Nowhere." Poor Boomy.

Let's remember that Kerry states + Iowa + New Mexico = 264 for Obama. Obama only needs one of these states to win.

Landslide Baby Landslide

Get some rest, Boomshak.

boom...

you are a crazy person

the end

@NHBlue:

Answer the question numbnuts.

boomcrap

Last week you hated the CBS Poll. Everyone agrees it is a sh#t poll. Obama is up by 6 and McCain is done...Period!!

@maddiekat:

No, last week the CBS Poll was even closer.

@boomshak

Sorry old buddy the CBS poll appears to be flawed.

@boomshak

Florida FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 52, McCain 45 Obama +7
Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 48 Obama +2
Colorado FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Missouri FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 50, McCain 47 Obama +3
National NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6
Virginia SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10
North Carolina PPP (D) McCain 44, Obama 50 Obama +6
New Hampshire SurveyUSA Obama 53, McCain 40 Obama +13
National CBS News Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3
National CNN Obama 53, McCain 45 Obama +8
National Gallup Tracking Obama 50, McCain 42 Obama +8
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 52, McCain 44 Obama +8
National Hotline/FD Tracking Obama 47, McCain 41 Obama +6
Ohio ABC News/Wash Post Obama 51, McCain 45 Obama +6
Virginia Suffolk Obama 51, McCain 39 Obama +12
National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 49, McCain 46 Obama +3
Pennsylvania Morning Call Tracking Obama 49, McCain 38 Obama +11
National Democracy Corps (D) Obama 48, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 2 Obama +3
National GW/Battleground Tracking Obama 50, McCain 43 Obama +7
New Mexico Albuquerque Journal Obama 45, McCain 40 Obama +5

RCP National Average 49.8 43.6 Obama +6.2
Favorable Ratings +18.8 +11.1 Obama +7.7
Intrade Market Odds 68.0 31.8 -
Electoral College Obama McCain Spread
RCP Electoral Count 264 163 Obama +101
No Toss Up States 364 174 Obama +190
Battleground States Obama McCain Spread
Colorado 48.0 44.0 Obama +4.0
Ohio 48.7 45.2 Obama +3.5
Florida 49.3 45.3 Obama +4.0
Nevada 49.3 47.5 Obama +1.8
Missouri 47.8 47.5 Obama +0.3
Virginia 49.9 45.1 Obama +4.8

I even added intrade for you, just coz I know how much you like it. Yes, the CBS poll is truly reflective of a major McCain comeback.

This whole "Obama didn't know Ayers was a terrorist" may be problematic.

Actually knowing Ayers wasn't so bad, but the American People don't like being lied to. It's clear Obama is lying.

@thoughtful:
@boomshak

"Sorry old buddy the CBS poll appears to be flawed."

How so? They even oversampled Democrats just like you like. How is it flawed?

@Indiana4Obama
Obama up 7 in Florida; holy crap? You Betcha!
I live in Tampa (central Fl), right down the street from the Mcc campaign headquarters and they cant give their junk away now. My informal "rush hour bumper sticker" poll-10 cars with Obama stickers, 1 for Mcc. In all seriousness, It will be a real coup for Ob to take Fl. because it is really three states: the panhandle (military), Central Fl. (a mixture with a pocket of hard core repub support in Orlando at the end of the I-4 corridor) and South Fl., more liberal. Bottom line: IF Ob takes Fl. he wins the election, you can bank on it.

It is funny to see Boomshak praising polls that he used trash and trash those he used to praise. The bottom line: You better show what I want; otherwise, I will trash you relentlessly :-)

Don't worry boomshak we've seen your "movie" so many polls ago that we already know what your verdict will be, good if you like it and bad if you don't like it.

@carl29:

1. Obama "didn't know" William Ayers had been a terrorist when he worked with him.
2. Obama "didn't know" Reverend Wright was a radical bigot even though he attended his church for 20 years and everyone else in the church knew.
3. Obama "didn't know" Rezko was a crook when he got a sweetheart deal on same land.

I think we have one of two choices here. Either Obama is LYING, or he is a FOOL. I don't think Obama is a fool.

MY QUESTION:
You guys think Obama is such a GENIUS. How the hell could a genius know all of these men and yet know nothing of their bad activities?

C'mon boomshak, be honest with me and tell me that you've vetted everybody you work with. The idea that everybody knows the intimate personal history of everybody they deal with is quite frankly absurd.

boomshak,

You are an idiot.

There is no reason why Obama should have known what some acquaintance of his was doing 30 years ago.

Wow, what a nutcase... I used to think he was kind of funny. This is just creepy now.

@carl29

It's called "cherry-picking" and it is the number 1 reason why boomshak has no credibility left.

BTW: Sarah Failin trying to trash Obama's history now? I thought she said during the debate that she didn't want to talk about history.

BoomSPIN is like a sword with 2 sharp edges
You guys shouldn't pay attention to what he say
It's a waste of time and energy
The guy is irrational and takes pride in spewing insanities even though facts are on the table and contradict his arguments

If McCain loses the debate tomorrow, even by a small margin, this race is OVER with the exception of a war or terrorist attack. Period.

The first debate made it so that many on the fence were able to become comfortable with the idea of Obama as president, while at the same time Palin was severely damaging her ticket with terrible performances in interviews. The people that are making up their minds now were the key, and it's too late to change that dynamic without some huge fundamental event. Attack ads just won't do it.

[nemesis]:

You have GOT to be kidding. Ayers was FAMOUS AS A TERRORIST AND PROUD OF IT!

Obama sat in Reverend Wright's church for 20 years and had NO IDEA he was a radical bigot? How is that possible?

@Frankie

He has lost it completely.

boomshak, I am talking about you. I am not here to respond your questions, much less about somebody else, sorry my friend. I am not Obama's spokewoman.

I am comment about your "erratic" rationale:

It is funny to see Boomshak praising polls that he used trash and trash those he used to praise. The bottom line: You better show what I want; otherwise, I will trash you relentlessly :-)

Don't worry boomshak we've seen your "movie" so many polls ago that we already know what your verdict will be, good if you like it and bad if you don't like it.

boom-
Did McCain show good judgement when he trusted Keating? Was McCain smart to stand on a stage (this year!) and accept Hagee's endorsement? Was McCain putting country first when he picked an ignorant person to be VP?

So let's have no more "Obozonaut" epithets.
Shall we?

There is also a new Democracy Corps poll of Ohio with Obama up 6.

http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/10/obama-emerges-ahead-in-ohio/

Florida and Colorado have turned light blue. Missouri is not believable.

Bigmike should look at the Krugman column on Healthcare today. It will answer many of his questions and misunderstandings, with only one hard core Cancer Center director dissenting on account of gov't bureaucracy. No system, as Bigmike has discovered, will be perfect in healthcare. But, what Obama offers is simply more intelligent than what McCain does:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/06/opinion/06krugman.html?hp

http://community.nytimes.com/article/comments/2008/10/06/opinion/06krugman.html?s=4

@boomshak

See you early in the morning to compare notes.

I look forward to reading your answers to the questions.

OK Rove did set up McCain to be "the patsy" take the rap for the GOP, you know McCain has never been that bright.

They figured now that Bush has completely committed the budgets for the next 4 years, let Obama in for a term and then back to business as usual. Deviously clever or what?

@BOOM:
Just to get a picture of what is sticking go to google trends and see which keywords have been serached the most (Top 50).
4 or 5 hottest searches are for Obama's websites registeration.

4 or 5 is keating 5 or a combination of McCain and keating 5.

"Ayres" is not in the top 50 searched words.

Here is the link:

http://www.google.com/trends/hottrends?sa=X

Obama was 8 years old when Ayers was a terrorist. I take it you were really big on keeping up with the news when you were 8. I know when I go to a school and they're at recess, all of the third grade students are reading the paper. Give me a break. As far as Rev. Wright goes, most of his comments were taken out of context. I'm not entirely familiar with the Rezko story.

Yo Boomcrap

If Democatic Corp and the scitzo CBS poll is right then it will be a close race. PS you are a dumba#a!!

Boomshak:

McCain knows Charles Keating and knew what he was doing.
McCain admires convicted felon G. Gordon Liddy
McCain has bigoted minister Hagee supporting him An endorsement he sought.

Response Please?
Anybody can play the bad associate game. It means diddly.

Ok, have a date and gonna watch Ironman. Have fun patting yourselves on the back fools :)

Why has Mcc waited until the campaign is almost over to unleash attack ads, after saying at the beginning of the campaign he was NOT going to run a negative campaign? We are seeing the real John McCain now, an erratic hot headed man who should never have his finger anywhere near the button.

@thoughtful,

I believe that is exactly what dubya and Rove thought. But, the problem for them is that the American people are about to get a vote, and maybe, just maybe they see through the Republican crap this time.

@ boom

obama was fully aware that Ayers was a terrorist when he sat on one panel with him. However, he has denounced ayers' actions several times. if this is the best mccain's got, then it really will be an avalanche.

If anybody has seen Grandma's Boy, they'll know what I mean when I say that by "date", boomshak means that piece of rabbit fur he rubs against his dick at night. I can't see anybody spending time with somebody who is so belligerent and impossible to talk any sense into.

This has got Dick Cheney's handwriting all over it.

I will enjoy watching the tenor or right-wing anger shift. For the longest time, right-wing anger has been the anger of the powerful, snarling, cocky, counter-insurgent Col. Kilgore fury, anger that there are still a few pipsqueak lefties out there to defy them. Right-wing talk radio had this down pat. It's the anger of a bully that the skinny nerd boy has not fully submitted.

But now, watch as the Right shifts into the inverse, a whining complaint that all those mean lefties are oppressing them. "Help! help! We're just little old dissenters who still love God and Country! Why are we being attacked?!" Orwell points out this kind of shift in Axis propaganda in 1944.

Boom is right at some level that this is a center/right country, meaning that Americans' default choice is for the status quo. So when such a country swings overwhelmingly to the (moderate) left, that is an even more damnig comment about the Regime that fell.

"Have a date and gonna watch Ironman."

That's just a euphemism for whacking off while watching Bill O'Reilly.

What I really hope to see when this election is over is the death of these three principles:

1. Republicans will keep this country safe, Democrats will not.

2. Republicans are religous, God-fearing people, Democrats are atheistic heathen.

3. Democrats are traitors, because if you criticize the president you are disrespectful to the troops; and you are a traitor.

Boomshak is just a joke. I can't imagine someone actually dating him, with that personality? There are desperate people in the world, though :-)

This is something new out there:

Poll: Obama-McCain in dead heat in Ind.
INDIANAPOLIS (WISH) - The race for president in Indiana is a dead heat according to the new WISH-TV Indiana Poll.

Obama 46 McCain 46

No wonder why Obama is visiting Indiana this week :-)

McCain must breathing a sigh of relief over this VA and OH poll.

Wake up Mack!!!!!

"OK McP"al"inocchio you can take OHIO but gives us FL,VA and CO and let me know how you're going to win this thing"

BY MACCAIN STEALING PA AND WI!

CO and FL went BLUE!!!!!!

Obama is visiting Indiana to do to it what he has just done to FL and about to do with VA and, before election day, NC.

RE: Governing as a moderate.

One of the reasons a lot of us are so concerned about the selection of Sarah Palin as VP is that she shows no inclination to govern from the center or reach across the aisle, which is very much in keeping with the Bush modus operandi. In my mind, Bush's cardinal sin following the 2000 election is not how he won (which is an entirely different argument), but the way he treated his victory. Assuming that everything about 2000 was on the up-and-up, any competent person--left or right--would say,"I am governing a deeply divided nation, I have won by the narrowest of all possible margins, andI need to govern from the center." Bush didn't. To the contrary, he immediately acted as if he had a mandate adopted a "my way or the highway" approach to every conceivable issue and generally ignored anyone whose view differed from his. 9/11 gave him a break in that he now led a united country, and he still didn't depart from that "my way or the highway" policy.

McCain's rhetoric has been markedly different from that, as part of his "I'm the REAL candidate for change" approach. But his selection of Plain directly contradicts that, as Palin herself reminds us every time she opens her mouth. That may be a big part of why they're behind right now. People have seen that particular bait-and-switch a few times too many by now.

Assuming the numbers hold and Obama wins (still a fairly big assumption with four weeks to go), I would hope that he takes that lesson to heart and governs from the middle. The Republicans are not our enemies, despite all the efforts they have made to the contrary. A moderate government--seeking the middle road to get things done and pull us out of this mess--is likely the best approach to the next four years.

The only question is, will the conservative right go along with it? They certainly didn't with Clinton, who may have been the epitome of a moderate Democrat. Will sour grapes over an Obama victory convince the right that he is as awful as Clinton? Or will they acknowledge their responsibility in such a loss and work with him as much as possible while still remaining true to their principles? The answer will go a long way towards defining the next four years... again, assuming an Obama victory, which is still not a done deal despite the favorable outlook.

@Carl29:
Could you share the link to that indiana poll?
Thanx

I don't think Rasmussen "gets" Ohio. Maybe no one told him that Democrats have a 1,000,000 voter registration advantage in the state. I just think Ras has a huge blind spot when it comes to Ohio.

But hey I'll take the Colorado and Missouri numbers at this point. I know Obama has invested a ton of energy into the Missouri ground game. The voter registration and canvassing there has been huge.

Zogby internet polls are to be ignored. Doesn't anyone remember when he said Kerry was tied with Bush in Tennessee.

Nevertheless, they are valuable in that they show a certain trend. It's just that I don't believe the trend would ever swing that wildly (20 point swing in PA - puleeeez.)

To his credit, right-leaning Rasmussen has improved his polls this week by increasing their sample size to 1,000 likely voters. Rasmussen does not call cell phones, which likely results in the under-sampling of Obama's support by 2-3% (as multiple recent studies have shown). Also, his likely voter screen screens-out a certain percentage of first-time voters, who are disproportionately young, and who disproportionately favor Obama. For example, see this poll:
http://futuremajority.com/node/3177

Adjusted accordingly, these polls suggest that Obama may be up by 8-10 points in CO, 9-11 points in FL, 5-7 points in MO, 1-3 points in OH, and 4-6 points in VA. The cell phone issue is especially likely to be a factor in VA, as this state has the 3rd-highest % of cell phone only users in the country. See:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/cell_phone_only_households_by.php

The first item of interest to note about these polls is that MO has been substituted for PA--meaning Rasmussen no longer believes PA is a swing state (today's PA tracker has Obama up 11 points there, yet McCain and Palin visit the state Wednesday).

In CO, right-leaning Rasmussen shows Obama ahead of McCain by 6 points. This poll is more recent and has a larger sample than the M-D CO poll (showing the state tied) that was released yesterday. It is the 6th CO poll in the last 11 that has shown Obama at 50% or greater. 10 of the last 12 CO polls have had Obama up there, with 1 tie and 1 McCain lead.

Rasmussen's poll gives Obama the edge in CO despite the fact that McCain spent 2 days in the state last Thursday and Friday.

As far as GOTV efforts are concerned, Obama should have the advantage in CO. Obama has 37 field offices there; McCain has 9. For an eye-witness account of the disparity in energy and organization between the 2 campaigns in 6 states, including CO, see:
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/on-road-st-louis-county-missouri.html

is 400 possible?!

@boomshak

You freakin' cowardly gut weasel. Why is it that you won't answer my questions about the economy? Instead you show you cowardly face in here spewing lies that you can't prove.

Who is it that pals around with the "economic terrorist" of our time Phil Gramm? Dude is responsible for the legislation that brought us Enron, the legislation that brought us this disaster, and the draft proposal of McCain's economic plan. Yet you want to talk about Ayers. Was it Ayers that blew up my families retirement accounts today?

Enough of your tripe, you can't defend the most egregious economic disaster of this century and you know it. You are a pathetic Republican troglodyte and you should crawl back under your rock and let the grown-up lead for a while.

ABC News/Wash Post - ohio - Obama + 6

This is ab it worrying from Politico:

Low numbers in Ohio
After all the buzz -- and litigation -- over an Ohio's law that allows voters to register and vote at the same time, the numbers are a bit underwhelming.

The AP reports that, in the end, only a relative handful of votes were cast in the last week, a rare bad sign for Democrats' turnout hopes:

A weeklong period in which Ohioans could register to vote and immediately cast a ballot ended Monday with turnout that didn't quite match the expectations of election officials — or the campaign predictions that preceded it.

Early returns showed about 3,000 voters in Ohio's four largest counties took advantage of the disputed policy, a surprisingly low turnout to some elections officials.

The window was expected to benefit Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama, as his campaign and advocacy groups pushed Democratic-leaning groups such as college students and low-income voters to the polls.

is 400 possible?!

400 electoral votes? Seems highly unlikely. Winning all the blue and yellow states on the pollster map gets him to 375. He'd then have to flip three or four red states, at minimum, to have a shot at 400. And in nearly all of those states, McCain has very healthy double digit leads.

Well, I see CO and FL flipped over to blue now that they updated here. Nate Silver on Countdown tonight mentioned that this is one of Obama's best polling days ever.

Compare all the national polls that came in today
DKos O52, M40
GWU O50, M43
Ras O52, M44
Hotline O47, M41
Zogby O48, M44
DemCorps O48, M45
Gallup O50, M42
CNN O53, M45
CBS O48, M45
NBC O49, M43
Now, what do these 10 polls all have in common? All show Obama between 48% and 53%. All show McCain between 40% and 45%. This includes the Zogby poll, whose methods I think include a monkey, a blindfold, and a dart board. The average of these polls is Obama 49.7%, McCain 43.2%, for a margin of O +6.5%. This is within MOE of all the above polls, and would seem to indicate that Obama is starting to pull away with this race. It's not over yet, but when you factor in the fact that early voting is in progress in many states, I can hear the fat lady warming up already.

@ Brambster

Nice to hear from you. I'm guessing the late explosion of extraneous stuff on this site has dampened the poll-focused fun that prevailed when I came aboard. My apologies.

@ boomshak

"You have GOT to be kidding. Ayers was FAMOUS AS A TERRORIST AND PROUD OF IT!

Obama sat in Reverend Wright's church for 20 years and had NO IDEA he was a radical bigot? How is that possible?"

So... you knew who William Ayers was a year ago? Because I certainly didn't. Nor if I served on a board with him would I think "gee I'd better research what he was doing 30 years ago"

As for Reverend Wright, I would hardly consider him a "radical bigot" certainly not nearly as objectionable as Pastor Hagee - whom John McCain called a great man of god and whose political endorsement John McCain SOUGHT. This is a man who said the folks of New Orleans had it coming because they were too tolerant of gays and that Hitler was doing God's work because it allowed for the establishment of the Jewish state in Israel, thus fulfilling Revelations and hastening the time when all Jews would burn in hell. So, to quote from you, HOW is it possible that John McCain didn't know Pastor Hagee felt this way??

And then there's Sarah Palin and her associations with secessionist terrorists and pastors who label innocent women witches and have them chased out of villages. Yeah... keep going there. If guilt by association is what McCain/Palin want to play, I say bring it on

Paint them blue !!! Paint all of them blue !! )))

Lets face it, race is a problem in Ohio...Florida has a much more diverse population..which favor's Obama. And who cares about the national polls at this point in the game..McSame has a serious problem with the electoral map.

That old song should be McCains swan song, as the map turns bluer and bluer. "Bluer then Blue, Sadder then Sad, his empty campaign is going very bad."