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Gallup on Party ID

Topics: Party Weighing

Yesterday, Gallup released a detailed report that pulled together 30,655 interviews conducted during 2006 to summarize the trends in party identification at both the national and statewide levels. Here is the lead paragraph from Gallup's Jeff Jones:

For the year, Democrats averaged a nearly four point advantage over the Republicans on national party identification and an even larger 10-point advantage when independents' partisan "leanings" are taken into account. In an analysis of 2006 partisanship at the state level, 33 states show a statistically significant advantage in favor of the Democratic Party, six states show a statistically significant Republican advantage, and the remainder can be considered competitive. Democratic strength in the United States has grown in each of the last three years. The trends are fueled more by movement away from the Republican Party and into independent status than by movement toward the Democratic Party.

Two other survey organizations -- Harris Interactive and the Pew Research Center -- also provide annual averages for party identification.** The following table, which shows the Democratic advantage on the standard party ID question asked by each organization shows the same basic trend. The Democratic advantage narrowed or disappeared (depending on the pollster) following the 9/11 attacks in 2001, but has increased for the last three years.

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For the true junkie (or pollster), the Gallup report is well worth the click, as it includes average party ID values for all but five states and the District of Columbia (like most pollsters, Gallup does not include Alaska or Hawaii in national samples and the samples for Delaware, North Dakota, Wyoming and DC were still too small even with a year's worth of data.

**Harris has not yet released its report for 2006, and I calculated my own average for the 12 Pew surveys conducted last year. Keep in mind the Harris question differs slightly from the Gallup/Pew version and the results may also vary between pollsters due to "house effects," such as the number of respondents who are unsure or refuse to answer questions.

 

MAP - US, AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MS, MO, MT, NE, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI, WY, PR