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Gallup's 2008 Generic Vote

Topics: 2008 , The 2008 Race

Some analysis released this morning by the Gallup Poll's Jeff Jones includes new results of a "generic" 2008 presidential election question that essentially confirms the results of the Diageo/Hotline survey we discussed earlier this week. Gallup found that a sample of adults preferred the Democrats by a 50% to 35% margin when asked, "If the 2008 election were being held today, which party's presidential candidate would you like to see win?" This result largely resolves my concern that a question order effect may have explained the 47% to 29% Democratic lead on the Hotline-Diageo poll.

Jones also digs deep into data Gallup collected during the first quarter of 2007 and confirms that Democrats currently enjoy a "favorable political environment." He finds, for example, a 51.9% to 39.6% Democratic advantage in "leaned" party identification, very similar to the recent results reported by the Pew Research Center.

Echoing much of the discussion of the last week, Jones also notes the "ray of hope" for Republicans - "their leading presidential contenders [Giuliani and McCain] are currently viewed more positively by Americans than the leading Democratic presidential contenders." But concludes with this caveat:

As for the candidates, as Giuliani, McCain, and Obama campaign for the presidency, they will come to be viewed more as partisan figures, and their unfavorable ratings will likely increase as supporters of the opposing party will find it difficult to give them a positive review. Also, the candidates may look better or worse to Americans than they do now when they are evaluated against the backdrop of the key election issues of 2008, whether those are the Iraq war, terrorism, the economy, or another issue that emerges, such as healthcare or moral values.

Read it all.

PS: Democracy Corps -- the organization led by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg and Democratic consultants James Carville and Bob Shrum -- released a report today that points out "generic" 2008 presidential question asked of 1,002 likely voters back in January. That result also confirms the findings from Gallup and Hotline:

I know it is a long way off, but thinking about the election in 2008, if the election for president were held today, for whom would you vote -- the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

53% Democratic candidate
37% Republican candidate
1% Other (volunteered)
9% Undecided/refused

 

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