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Gallup's Crosstab Trove

Topics: Gallup

Not sure how we missed this, but Gallup has put up detailed demographic cross-tabulations based on the Gallup Daily tracking (that's the survey showing a four point lead for Barack Obama as of yesterday, not the USA Today Gallup poll that applied the "likely voter" screen and has been a source of controversy this week).

Here are descriptions and links just received via email from Gallup:

Gallup now has available online extensive data breaking out support for the presidential candidates within demographic, partisan, ideological, and regional subgroups.

The data are updated each Wednesday -- based on more than 6000 Gallup Poll Daily interviews conducted each week – and available here: http://www.gallup.com/poll/election2008.aspx. Importantly, the analyses can now be trended back through the week of June 9-15, showing the pattern of support within subgroup across time.

Candidate Support by Gender

Candidate Support by Gender Among Whites

Candidate Support by Age

Candidate Support by Region

Candidate Support by Race

Candidate Support by Education

Candidate Support by Education Among Whites

Candidate Support by Political Party

Candidate Support by Political Party Among Whites

Candidate Support by Political Party and Ideology

Candidate Support by Political Party and Ideology Among Whites

Candidate Support by Church Attendance Among Whites

Candidate Support by Marital Status

Candidate Support by Marital Status and Gender

Candidate Support by "Red," "Purple," and "Blue" States

 

Comments
boskop:

the most troubling indicator in these tabs for mccain is the migration (excuse the pun) of hispanics towards obama. my guess is the ads coming out will clarify mccain's more than generous and bold stance on this issue, daringly crossing the aisle with kennedy while obama sat and twiddled his thumbs.

there is also a strange but minor 2% migration of blacks away from obama but they have yet to land in mccain's camp.

mccain on the other hand has picked up some steam in the college grad vote which used to be the strong hold of obama.

fun info.

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jsh1120:

Thanks for noting this, Mark. I, too, was surprised to find this treasure trove of comparative x-tabs.

What is most striking is the utter stability of the results over the last seven weeks, or so. It's a worthwhile reminder that short-term blips associated with individual events are just that.

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1magine:

The most troubling imho is the very real closing of the gap in purple states. I wishh I had a definition of Gallup's purple states. But a guess is: CO, OH, NV, NH, FL, MI, VA

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boskop:

yes, BUT that trend has not helped mccain in the blue states at all. when we see this, then we see the house of cards starting to collapse.

based on the erosion of purples, this might not be too far behind.

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RS:

Mark:
Any idea what the MOE on these numbers is? For example, though each sample is >6000 voters, African-Americans would be ~750 (assuming a composition similar to US demographics), and so the MOE for that subgroup would be ~3-4%. So Obama's fluctuations in Af-Am support would be within this range. Thanks.

More interestingly, the Obama-McCain differential in purple states has reduced to +2% in the last weekly aggregate. Guess that confirms what Quinnipiac is seeing.
@1magine - Gallup defines purple states as Bush-Kerry margins within +/-6%. These are the same as the Wikipedia "close" states - +/-5% - and Florida (5.01%).
WI, IA, NM, NH, OH, PA, NV, MI, MN, OR, CO, FL.

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1magine:

I wasn't sure what was in 6% last election. That is even more troubling for BO if it includes WI, IO, NM, MN and OR b/c these are strong blue. Of course, PA is a huge state and the tightening in that one state alone is enough to pull the others down. I will juyst take my own advice and focus on THE state. OH, OH, OH. The national microcosm and the key to electoral college victory.

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Chris G:

God bless Gallup.com

Agreed w/ jsh1120 on stability that these numbers show. I think the appearance of the purple state gap closing could be illusory. There's about just as much fluctuation in the red and blue states as in purple, and the purple "closing" has only happened over 3 data points.

In fact, the most likely trend from these data is Obama gaining in red states. he's gained over 4 of the last 6 periods.

Seems like purple states are purple because they have a more even balance of Obama and McCain supporters (or Dems and Repubs), not because they have more undecideds. and obvious point perhaps, but one I keep have to reminding myself of

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Allen:

That's interesting but its missing some very important #'s. What %'age of the respondents are men? women? democrats? republicans? church goers? etc. Without these #'s (esp. the party identification breakdowns), its hard to read too much into the #'s.

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jsh1120:

I have to say, I'm feeling like a baseball fan in late February. Spring training still over a month away and even those acquaintances who were excited by a pennant race only a few months ago are disengaged at the moment.

I think we have another month or so of pretty meaningless little ups and downs before the regular season rosters are set and the pennant race begins.

Clearly the 2008 race is unusual, but it looks less like an extremely long campaign than two separate seasons separated by a summer of disengagement by all but fantasy players.

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Independent:

My initial impression looking at the cross-tabs is that Obama's strength across the board is impressive. The "house of cards" may indeed collapse as boskop suggests. But for now the "house" seems to be on strong, durable foundations. I'm beginning to understand the sizable lead in electoral vote projections despite a small lead in projected popular votes. If this is the result of a conscious strategy on the part of the Obama team, then the strategy seems to be working thus far.

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