Articles and Analysis


IA, MI, SC: 2012 Pres Primaries (PPP 5/25-27; 5/22-23)

Topics: Iowa , Michigan , Poll , Primary , South Carolina

Public Policy Polling (D)
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)

5/25-27/10; 477 likely Republican primary voters, 4.5% margin of error

2012 President: Republican Primary
27% Huckabee, 17% Palin, 16% Gingrich, 15% Romney, 7% Paul, 2% DeMint, 2% Thune

5/25-27/10; 377 likely Republican primary voters, 5.1% margin of error

2012 President: Republican Primary
37% Romney, 24% Palin, 16% Gingrich, 12% Huckabee, 6% Paul

South Carolina
5/22-23/10; 638 likely Republican primary voters, 3.9% margin of error

2012 President: Republican Primary
25% Gingrich, 24% Romney, 22% Palin, 19% Huckabee, 7% Paul

2012 President: Republican Primary with DeMint
21% DeMint, 16% Gingrich, 16% Romney, 15% Huckabee, 15% Palin, 7% Paul



Newt and Sarah would be unstoppable. This would be the end to illegals, HCR, cap n tax, and all the other lib horse crap. God bless America.




You do realize there is something called a Congress? LOL!

As for all that other "lib horse crap", you might as well as add the American with Disabilities Act and the the Civil Rights act to that list of yours. LOL!



That is funny that "deranged Demint" is on the list in SC. Doesn't surprise me one bit.

By the time 2012 comes around, America will be so tired of the GOP extremists, that if for no other reason, I predict Obama will win re-election because of his sanity.

If I had to say which GOP candidate I would be most worried about it would be Tim Pawlenty. That also means I think he would be the type of GOP president I could live with.

With this current list of candidates, on this list,other than Romney, I think Obama shouldn't be that worried.



Iowa may have the biggest contrasts of voters. You have the religious social conservatives who make up a good chunk of the population and you have progressive idealists in the other school. It would be an interesting place to campaign.

Iowa is like Kansas and Vermont built into one.



Tea Party Rules making statements like "Newt and Sarah would be unstoppable. This would be the end to illegals, HCR, cap n tax, and all the other lib horse crap. God bless America"

This is the reason why I fear and stand up to politicians who remotely have racist ideas and would take our country back to the 1920's or even the 1820's. Our human rights level on an international level ranks 40th in the world. It is reprehensible that the Supreme court still thinks the American way of executions are okay.

This is the side of America I truly hate. It tramples on our constitution instead of protecting it.

The far right defends the constitution alright, but only the parts of it that benefit them.




If you know something that I don't know...

A. That Newt has a newt's chance in a piranha pool

B. That Newt would pick Palin after her last successful outing...

Let me know.

Newt's too ethincally challenged to win, so the Dems would be catching a huge break if this has-been were to be chosen by Republicans. To jog your memory:

"On January 21, 1997, the House voted 395 to 28 to reprimand Gingrich for ethics violations dating back to September 1994. The House ordered Gingrich to pay a $300,000 penalty, the first time in the House's 208-year history it had disciplined a Speaker for ethical wrongdoing"

Note that the vote wasn't exactly on party lines either. Newt had, by that point become toxic for Republicans. They lost 5 seats in the 1998 Midterm, their worst performance in over 60 years. He was finally pressured to the point that he resigned his chairmanship and left the House.

As for Sarah...she'd no doubt thrive in that same Piranha pool, but, having no knowledge about policy, and being the most polarizing figure in politics today, perhaps Dems welcome her selection for President (I don't think she wants to be VP; like with being a half-term governor...been there done that.) I see no money in it for her either unless she gets the Presidential nod, and I think the big bucks are a strong motivating factor for anyone able to make them....she definitely can keep making 7-8 figures for years.

I do think she's a great campaigner when speaking to her base; she has an ability to speak their language and energize them. I don't minimize this skill at all. She's immensely talented in some ways; just not as a deep thinking policy-oriented person; not as the most important political leader in the world.



A Democratic pollster like PPP has a vested interest in making it look like Newt, Palin, Huckabee and even Romney are popular. None of these people have the capability of beating Obama, firstly. More importantly, none of them have breadth of support across a diverse electorate. Someone calm, centrist and pragmatic wins the middle - and Obama is already that person. Therefore, making it look like the GOP is governed by unpopular, extremist people is good for Democrats. We can't think of an honest competitor because we're being made to focus on this circus of losers.

This is like GOP pollsters focusing on Hillary during the 2008 primaries because she was so invigorating to the GOP base.



If either Newt or Palin get the GOP nomination, Obama will get 55%+ of the popular vote. If the Republican Party wants to have a fighting chance in 2012, Romney appears to be the only choice, although he has some flaws. I actually think John Thune would be a good general election candidate as well, but he would probably never be able to win the nomination.



Well it's still way too early to get anything particularly meaningful out of this poll, but it still is interesting nonetheless. The Iowa poll in particular interests me the most. I would have figured that Huckabee and Newt would be doing much better in South Carolina than in Iowa. Very interesting indeed.

Anyways, the only candidate that I could see possibly beating Obama (and this is a stretch) is Mitt Romney. Huckabee could give him a run for his money too, but he'd be more unlikely to win than Romney. The GOP is going to have to find better candidates than this if they're going to reclaim the White House in 2012. All of these candidates have potentially lethal problems.

My guess is that the 2012 GOP candidate will not be anyone mentioned so far. It will probably be someone completely different.



TeaPartyRules: If by some chance in hell Newt and Palin end up competing against Obama and Biden, it would result in the biggest embarrassment to the GOP ever. They'd probably lose every single state except Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Kansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming, and maybe one of the Dakota's and West Virginia. You had better pray that those two goons aren't on the ticket.



JMSTiger, 55% is WAY too optimistic. I'd expect something around 60%. Possibly around 65% if it's Palin as President.



The rats are jumping ship.




They can't pick Romney because he's the originator of Obamacare in MA. The National HCR is basically a copy of what Romney did in MA. Plus there is ample video evidence of him stating he's nakedly pro-gay rights and pro-abortion rights.




That's because he was running to be the governor of Massachusetts. when running for the Republican nomination for President, he no longer believes those things. It's called pandering and he is one of the worse offenders. I don't see how any of these people beat Obama in 2012. Maybe if the economy is worse then that it is today. However, does anyone think any of these candidates would help it all? (except Romney) Romney is polling better in SC than I expected.



What I take away from this poll is that republicans in different areas of the country are very split. There's no consensus about who they want to run against Obama.

None of the front-runners in each state has an advantage over the other, they cancel each other out. That probably advantages one of the lesser candidates. In this case, it looks like Palin would be the greatest beneficiary of a fight between Romney, Gingrich, and Huckabee. She would probably pick up more votes from the latter two when they dropped out.

What's clear is that the struggle will be between a more conservative candidate (represented now by the combination of Gingrich, Huckabee, Palin and DeMint) and a more pragmatic, establishment one (Romney). An outsider conservative candidate could also benefit.

Ultimately I think the contest will be between Romney, Palin, and someone else. The also-rans like Gingrich, et al.. will drop out after IA and NH. Romney would undoubtedly be the choice of the establishement, while Palin would be the choice of hardcore conservatives and the tea partiers.

It's possible that Gingrich or Huckabee might be that "someone else" but I'm thinking it's going to be Thune, Daniels, or someone not yet on the radar. I wasn't aware DeMint was thinking about running.

IMO, Romney is the only one who could feasibly challenge Obama, though. He's already well on his way to having the necessary funds and most importantly, would put pressure on Obama to hold states like MI and MA (the only blue state dems did worse in compared to 2004), and might have an advantage in CO and NV because of his Mormonism (at least that helped him in the 2008 primaries).

Unless the R's find some way to pressure Obama's backcourt, they'll never win. Romney has that capability.

Another thing to note is that Ron Paul always overpolls and he will be 76 in 2012, making his entry into the race doubtful.


Post a comment

Please be patient while your comment posts - sometimes it takes a minute or two. To check your comment, please wait 60 seconds and click your browser's refresh button. Note that comments with three or more hyperlinks will be held for approval.