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IL: 39% Kirk, 36% Giannoulias (WeAskAmerica 9/13)

Topics: Illinois , poll

We Ask America
9/13/10; 1,379 likely voters, 2.6% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(We Ask America release)

Illinois

2010 Senate
39% Kirk (R), 36% Giannoulias (D), 4% Jones (G), 2% Labno (L) (chart)

 

Comments
California:

Some observations:

1) Automated polls have been found to underestimate Democratic support due to the fact that they do not include cell-phone only users (who tend to be left-leaning minorities and young people and who number about 25% of the population)

2) This poll shows a margin between the Republican and the Democrat that is closer to 2% than 3% (rounding makes it 3%)

3) The Green Party candidate is drawing over 4% of the vote--much of which may end up going to the Democrat

4) Giannoulias has much more room to grow with Democrats than Kirk has with Republicans (there are more undecided Democrats than undecided Republicans)

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Stillow:

Automated polls don't tend to favor anyone. auto polling did much better in the NJ race last year than live polling did. I would not say there is any noticible advantage either way.The fact that thsi race for the current presidents old seat is even competitive says a ton about the election cycle this year.

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Bob in SJ:

Hark, 'tis a Republican Partisan poll! Dosen't mean it's not legit, though.

From SSP:

"So I did some research on the identity of We Ask America. Its website only discloses that it is a division of "Xpress Professional Services, Inc." But it does not tell the reader what exactly that means, which turns out to be quite significant.

Xpress Professional Services, Inc. is a subsidiary of the Illinois Manufacturer's Association, which is an anti-union, anti-tax, and anti-Health Care Reform industry advocacy organization.

Its CEO is Greg Baise, who was a 1990 Republican candidate for Treasurer, losing to Pat Quinn by 11%....

Its COO is Gregg Durham, a former spokesman for the Illinois Republican House Caucus and Republican State Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka."

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/6672/on-those-we-ask-america-illinois-polls

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California:
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Paleo:

Three points down in a conservative poll, with 4% going to the Green is not a bad place for Mr. G to be.

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Paleo:

Good research Bob on this astroturf pollster. More have been springing up and need to have the light of day shown on them as well.

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California:

18% of Democrats who are likely to vote remain undecided; only 11% of Republicans who are likely to vote remain undecided. Giannoulias is losing 3% of Democrats to the Green Party candidate. To win this race, he simply needs to convince Democrats to come home.

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GoTo123:

Has anyone ever heard of this pollster before? I always regard these "one time" pollsters with suspicion.

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California:

This GOP pollster has polled this race twice previously. In May, it found Kirk ahead by 13, in August by 6, and now by less than 3. The race appears to be trending toward Giannoulias.

Illinois has one of the largest Greek populations in the country (second only to New York) at about five hundred thousand.

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tjampel:

California:

"...[t]he race appears to be trending toward Giannoulias."

Not really, the race is pretty even. It did trend towards Gianoulias for a while after Kirk made some unforced errors...a little problem with the truth (about his military and teaching records). Gianoulias was slightly up for a while and now and now it seems like a dead heat. I like this result from such a partisan polling firm, however.

It's going to come down to GOTV in Chicago if the race remains deadlocked. The LV models predict an extremely depressed turnout, especially in AA areas (e.g. Chicago South Side). That needs to and, I think, can be addressed through aggressive volunteer work, canvassing, phone banking, and transportation to the polls. There are too many loyal Obama-loving (or at least liking) Dems in IL for Kirk to win by more than 1 or 2 points at best, and if the gap closes to +6 or even +7 Kirk is toast. Right now the electorate in IL, according to PPP voted for Obama by only around 8% I think, when he won by 26. Consider what that does to the result.

Seems like the enthusiasm gap is closing in many states. When PPP polls this state we'll see what the Obama/McCain distribution is for that sample; maybe it's shifting back. I expect to see some narrowing in IL and that's enough for a Dem win.

This is a very important seat to hold. It's kind of a bellwether for how the rest of the night will go on Nov 3.

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VermontWisdom:

I don't think the voters of IL like either of these candidates, if these are the numbers 7 weeks out.

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Dave:

Trying to avoid threadjacking, but there are some fun polls coming out today.

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MoralHazard:

Kirk has to win. After all, he's a moderate Republican congressman from a Democratic leaning district. The Republicans that are gonna lose are the conservative extremists like Rubio in Florida, Paul in Kentucky and Miller in Alaska and Angle in Nevada. Illinois should be easy pickings for a moderate like Kirk.

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