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IN: 2010 Sen (Kos 2/22-24)

Topics: poll

DailyKos.com (D) / Research 2000
2/22-24/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(Kos release)

Indiana

2010 Senate
40% Hostettler (R), 34% Ellsworth (D)
37% Coats (R), 36% Ellsworth (D)
42% Hostettler (R), 36% Hill (D)
37% Coats (R), 37% Hill (D)
44% Hostettler (R), 33% Schellinger (D)
39% Coats (R), 34% Schellinger (D)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brad Ellsworth: 41 / 24
Baron Hill: 45 / 31
jim Schellinger: 39 / 32
John Hostettler: 43 / 31
Dan Coats: 40 / 36

 

Comments
Rockym92:

Nominating Coats would be a big mistake for the GOP. He carries far too much baggage.

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GARY WAGNER:

Hill is the only democrat who stood even a small chance of winning this and he announced that he will not try to get the nomination. Even he only had a slim chance. His congressional campaign is in big trouble so he saw this as an even bigger risk than that.

Any democrat is going to be lucky to get out of the low 40's in this election. The "baggage" the democrats want to tie around Coats neck isn't going to get anyone to vote or stay home. Starting off the campaign with a big negative slam will guarantee a republican takeover of this seat.

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LordMike:

Hill would be a much better senator than Ellsworth, but Ellsworth is way more electable. He can pull a Scott Brown thing and drive around in a truck and do naked Esquire centerfolds and whatever 'cos he's got the "good looking sherrif" thing going on. Indiana voters vote for the candidate, not the party. Dan Coates has not aged well, and he's looking quite worn. Ellsworth can run circles around this guy if he chooses, and I expect he will. There's a reason why Ellsworth has been excited about getting in this race... and it's not 'cos he thinks he will lose.

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Field Marshal:

"Hill would be a much better senator than Ellsworth, but Ellsworth is way more electable."

That's all well and good but the chance of either being elected is infinitesimally small.

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Xenobion:

Ellsworth announced a week and a half ago after Bayh dropped out and it already in the upper 30's? Coats is already polling unfavorably. Hostettler is the best bet for the Republicans. If they nominate Coats, he's toast.

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Field Marshal:
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Gopherguy:

FM,

Don't bet on that. Since 1960, the beginning of presidential elections on television, no president has been bald. Additionally, none have been 5'7''. Appearance and presence matter for television. Think of Obama standing next to Daniels. Obama would tower over Daniels, creating an image of strength for Obama and weakness for Daniels. It's never good to look up at your opponent.

Additionally, Obama has a full head of hair. I know, it sounds ridiculous but it matters. A full head of hair shows youthfulness and energy. Baldness represents advanced age and all the connotations that come with that. Candidates have to pass the PR presentation test. Daniels doesn't pass.

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Farleftandproud:

This is a left-leaning poll but coats being ahead by just 1 point is still impressive in Indiana.

I am pleased that finally someone is challenging Blanche Lincoln. I want to see a Halter Vs Boozman poll.

A couple of polls tried to throw Huckabee in the mix. I remember last summer, Blanche Lincoln was slightly ahead other potential challengers other than Huck. I remember Halter would win against all possibly Democrats other than Huckabee and had more sizeable leads in the polls than Lincoln did. It is a good move, but he might be just a little late in the game.

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Jose Ortiz:

If Hostettler is winning EVEN in a KOS poll then this seat is a sure thing for the Repubs. Another thing, Ellsworth can dream all he wants about this seat but running as a Democrat in Indiana in such a tough environment and the votes he has taken with the House Democratic Leadership. It looks very hard for him to pull an upset.

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Jose Ortiz:

I meant Hostettler winning by a good 6 point margin.

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Field Marshal:

Gopher Guy,

True. But since 1792, no president was black (or partially black) either and that changed in 2008. There is a first time for everything.

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saywhat90:

Seriously, you really think that it's a sure thing that Indiana will go red with 8 months or so of campaigning to go.

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Jason:

Ellsworth will win this race! These polls shows Hostettler ahead by a few points. However, Ellsworth has already beat him before by nearly 20 points if I remember correct! Once the hard campaign starts Ellsworth will jump out way ahead! He is a Blue Dog that is pretty much a right-winger. He is pro-life, and Independent he does not go for the partisan politics of either party. Coats is who the GOP will run and he will easily lose this race, you can put it in the bank!

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Farleftandproud:

I think Indiana, NC, VA, CO and Arizona are the states I think the Democrats have done exceptionally well in finding good candidates the past 10 years. I would give them a b- in recruiting. They have a long way to go towards moving more to the ctr left, but they are changing.

The states the Democrats have failed are Louisiana, Tennesee, Arkansas, in the south, and I would also ad Nevada and Florida to the mix as well. It isn't just the fact they can't find strong candidates, they just aren't well organized and don't do enough to counteract the spin from the right. I think Florida and Nevada don't get as much voter turnout from younger and minority voters as other states have. Florida still hasn't reformed their voting system after the 2000 recount. The Democrats never stood up to Jeb Bush who was clearly a crook and liar. In the US Senate, the best Florida can come up with is Nelson. At times, he isn't all that much better than the younger Nelson. Florida also has a lot of progressive areas.

The Dems in NC have done a tremendous job with their early voting.

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Farleftandproud:

I am glad that Ellsworth is pro-life. I think that will help a lot in Indiana.

Personally, I am pro-choice and support gay marriages, yet I am always pleased when the DNC can find Democrats who can win in their districts and states. Our country has many differences regionally and I respect those differences Our party is diverse and encourage people like this in the party. The issue that has broken my heart about the Blue dogs though, is their reluctance to support affordable healthcare. That is where my patience ends with them.

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Bigmike:

The GOP should be winning this in a cake walk. I am not impressed with either candidate and apparently neither are the people of IN.

Farleftandproud

So you like blue dogs winning elections but you don't like them when they vote like blue dogs? It is a package deal. You can't have it both ways.

PPP did poll Boozman vs Halter. I think about a month ago. Boozman was +23. Halter is much more liberal than Lincoln. I am more interested in seeing Lincoln vs Halter. Lib vs blue dog. Clinton (Halter) vs Obama (Lincoln). BO has already endorsed Lincoln, or so they said on the local news. Sounds strange that BO is not backing the far left candidate. Strange bedfellows indeed.

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Xenobion:

Ellsworth is a tenacious candidate. He's the Democrat version of Scott Brown. :p

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Rockym92:

Ellsworth is certainly the best candidate the Dems could have gotten. He won a landslide in 2008 in a conservative district and I think he will get support from all corners of the state.


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Farleftandproud:

Actually I don't mind when blue dogs vote the party line all the time and that is what it takes to win states like Indiana. It just makes me sick when I look at poverty in some of these congressional districts where they voted against a comprehensive healthcare package. I don't see why trying to cover 40 million uninsured Americans has to always be a political, liberal or conservative issue. I still see it as a right not a privelidge. It is just hard for me to live in a country where these people have to pay high premiums and much of their income on insurance, or simply go without it and hope that they don't get sick.

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Jason:

Ellsworth is like Scott Brown in some ways. Both guys are nice looking guys and appeal to both sides. They are Independent and very sharp witty! A lot of the GOP are mad about Senator Brown, he votes more like a Democrat! Ellsworth will win this one folks! I live in Indiana and know what Hoosiers want the GOP will be killed in this one. When you look at the men they have running it is not hard to see why!

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