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IN: 2010 Sen (SurveyUSA/MDCfIP 4/22-26)

Topics: poll

SurveyUSA / Mike Downs Center for Indiana Politics
4/22-26/10; 1,250 likely voters, 2.8% margin of error
407 likely Republican primary voters, 5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Mike Downs Center release)

Indiana

2010 Senate: Republican Primary
36% Coats, 24% Hostettler, 18% Stutzman, 6% Bates, 4% Behney

2010 Senate: General Election
47% Coats (R), 31% Ellsworth (D)
45% Hostettler (R), 32% Ellsworth (D)
41% Stutzman (R), 35% Ellsworth (D)

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

Now lets here how Survey USA is a GOP pollster when just a few days ago the libies were praising he pollster.

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Westwoodnc Westwoodnc:

Field Marshal:
Now lets here how Survey USA is a GOP pollster when just a few days ago the libies were praising he pollster.

===

Every other week SuveyUSA hides their white hoods and burnt crosses and become respectable again.

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Paleo:

Uh . . . no Democrat is under any allusion that this will be an easy race. But there's a long way to go, and Coates, being a former senator, is far better than known than Ellsworth at this point. And Ellsworth trounced Hoestetler in '06. He has room to grow and is a relatively conservative Democrat. The Republican candidate will be favored, but it far from a done deal.

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CHRIS MERKEY:

Totally agree with you Paleo. I have said it past posts that Dems have a chance since Ellsworth is more conservative than most Dems, former police officer, attractive. I would not call this a win for Reps yet.

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Farleftandproud:

I doubt that Evan Bayh will ever be invited to a Democratic convention again. He should be blacklisted for his hypocrisy just like Dick Gephardt who became a lobbyist for Goldman Sachs. Bayh handed this victory to the Republicans, and his wife put him up to it. The money both he and his wife can make in the health care industry will be tremendous. I'll write letters each year to make sure the Bayhs are not invited. The DNC won't listen, but there is nothing wrong with making money, but at the expense of his wife's company raising their rates and denying sick people coverage, that is unforgiveable.

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GARY WAGNER:

It's so close to a done deal that Ellsworth doesn't need to bother campaigning. Did you notice that the best he can do is 35%?

We're some of those wild-eyed angry teabaggers here in Indiana. 65% support repeal of healthcare. Did you notice that Ellsworth only gets 35%? Is 65% somehow related to 35%? He reversed his promise at the last minute and voted for the healthcare monstrosity. He would also lose reelection of his old congressional seat by a landslide. The democrats couldn't have picked a worse candidate than him.

In fact, there are only 29% that oppose reform and only 21% that strongly oppose it compared to 56% who strongly favor repeal.

55% of us hoosiers the tea party is closer to their beliefs and only 32% think that Obama is closer.

And on top of all of that, we have a Republican Governor who has a 60% approval rating.

A dead toad could run as a republican this year and beat Hostettler.

I see Indiana as possibly being a complete sweep this year. All republican congressmen, senators, state house, state senate, and governor. There are a couple of congresional seats the democrats might hold, but there isn't any safe democrat in Indiana this year.

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GARY WAGNER:

Oh, I forgot to mention that Obama currently has a 39% approval here in Indiana.

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Farleftandproud:

Yeah, what is up with Indiana? You have IL which is a lean Democratic state, and Ohio on the other side which usually gives Obama about 45-50 percent approval. Why has INdiana been so much more conservative?

I know that Notre Dame gave Obama a rotten deal. They invited him, and than they made such a big deal about Obama's position upholding Roe Vs Wade. Some in the audience were so rude. Obama being the good sport he was went just the same. I am not sure if Hillary or JOhn Kerry would have even gone.

Obama is always willing to listen to the American people, even in places where his hard work goes unappreciated. That is what makes him my hero.

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Farleftandproud:

Obama will have a resurgence in the northwest part of the state this summer. Bill Clinton never did well in INdiana either, but Obama still has an upper hand because of location.

Dems will likely have at least 2 reps in the house after this year. I would imagine Gary Indiana and Indianapolis districts being cities would stay blue.

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Chris V.:

"It's so close to a done deal that Ellsworth doesn't need to bother campaigning. Did you notice that the best he can do is 35%?

We're some of those wild-eyed angry teabaggers here in Indiana. 65% support repeal of healthcare. Did you notice that Ellsworth only gets 35%? Is 65% somehow related to 35%? He reversed his promise at the last minute and voted for the healthcare monstrosity. He would also lose reelection of his old congressional seat by a landslide. The democrats couldn't have picked a worse candidate than him.

In fact, there are only 29% that oppose reform and only 21% that strongly oppose it compared to 56% who strongly favor repeal.

55% of us hoosiers the tea party is closer to their beliefs and only 32% think that Obama is closer.

And on top of all of that, we have a Republican Governor who has a 60% approval rating.

A dead toad could run as a republican this year and beat Hostettler.

I see Indiana as possibly being a complete sweep this year. All republican congressmen, senators, state house, state senate, and governor. There are a couple of congresional seats the democrats might hold, but there isn't any safe democrat in Indiana this year."

Time to cancel the elections, GARY WAGNER and his crystal ball have foretold that Republicans will win every election in Indiana this year.

First off, there is no way in hell Carson or Visclosky lose, so you can forget about that right now. Obama got 71% of the vote in Carson's district and 62% in Visclosky's. Neither will be facing a Republican this fall that has any experience winning elected office. Give those two up right now.

IN-08 is probably lean GOP, but keep in mind none of the GOP candidates in that district have significant political experience either.

While you're at it, Gary, why not just predict that Republicans win all 435 House seats this fall? Wouldn't be very far out of line with your other wet dreams.

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Field Marshal:

"IN-08 is probably lean GOP, but keep in mind none of the GOP candidates in that district have significant political experience either."

What does that have to do with winning an election? We had Obama win the PRESIDENCY without any significant experience in ANYTHING!

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I don't pretend to know Indiana. But I know SUSA really blew it in a poll the other day in Washington State. They appear to be getting a strong GOP bias. One has to wonder why.

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Chris V.:

Yeah, he had no significant experience in anything except 12 years of elected office, a successful law career, and several years as a community organizer helping people.

Let's compare that to the GOP folks running in CD-08.

Bud Bernitt (R) - Realtor & Ex-Electrician

Larry Bucshon (R) - Cardiologist & Navy Veteran

Billy Mahoney (R) - Disc Jockey & Tea Party Activist

Kristi Risk (R) - Community Activist, Sunday School Teacher & Homemaker

John Lee Smith (R) - Ex-Monroe County Councilman, Ex-Monroe County GOP Chair, Financial Advisor & '88/'98 Candidate

John Snyder Jr. (R) - Businessman & Ex-US Deputy Under Secretary of Commerce

Dan Stockton (R) - Auto Worker

Steve Westell (R) - State Conservation Officer & Tea Party Activist


Yep, when I think of guys qualified to be Congressmen, I think of auto workers, homemakers, disc jockeys, and realtors. You win, Field Marshal.

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Farleftandproud:

It probably is a done deal. I don't think Evan Bayh really cares to campaign for the Democrat and really cares who wins any how. Hell, his wife certainly wants the Republican to win. Less Regulations.

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Chris V.:

I remember Hostettler refused to ever spend any money on his campaigns. It ultimately killed him in his House race with Ellsworth, and I imagine he'll be crushed in the primary by Coats if he doesn't start now.

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GARY WAGNER:

@Chris V:

You still don't understand the dynamics of this years election. It is especially prevalent here in Indiana.

56% of hoosiers strongly support repeal of the healthcare bill. Obama has a 53% strong disapproval. I haven;t seen one but I would guess Nancy Pelosi would have about a 65% strong disapproval.

So this year, it is the republican running against healtcare, Obama, and Pelosi. Nothing else matters.

There are a couple of districts where approval might still be positive for one or more of those three issues and a democrat might squeak through - but only if the enthusiasm factor changes.

Carson could still pull it off. When the democrats were able to gerrymander the 7th district and increase the black population to 30%, democrats started winning it. The 7th is basically the city limits of Indianapolis. It is 99.7 Urban. Once the suburbs were removed from this district, the vote swung democrat.

There are only 3 dependable dem counties in Indiana - Lake (Gary) Marian (Indianapolis), and Monroe (Indiana University). St. Joseph often goes to the dems (Notre Dame).

In 2000, St Joseph went for Bush and LaPorte went for Kerry but the LaPorte vote is attributed to a nasty city election.

But even though Marion county is the second strongest for dems (lake county is first), they went 51% Kerry to 49% Bush - not exactly a landslide.

Viscosky has a gerrymanded slice of lake county so knocking him off would be a miracle - especially since that seat has been held by a democrat since 1931. Lake county contains East Chicago and Gary where are considered the "Indiana sections" of urban Chicago.

So I never said a total sweep was likely but in a year that a republican can take ted kennedy's old seat in Massacussetts, anything is possible. Enthusiasm is key and if Obama can't bring out the hundreds of thousands of first-time voters that gave him Indiana, it is going to be extremely hard for all democrats.

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Chris V.:

"You still don't understand the dynamics of this years election. It is especially prevalent here in Indiana.

56% of hoosiers strongly support repeal of the healthcare bill. Obama has a 53% strong disapproval. I haven;t seen one but I would guess Nancy Pelosi would have about a 65% strong disapproval.

So this year, it is the republican running against healtcare, Obama, and Pelosi. Nothing else matters."

Really? Nothing else matters? The voters of Indiana will care more about Nancy Pelosi than they will about, say, the economy? The same economy that apparently will not matter to Indiana voters this fall? I seem to remember back in 2006 when Hostettler kept trying to tie Ellsworth to Pelosi, but that backfired because a large portion of the voters in that district didn't even know who Pelosi was.

I think it is you who does not understand the dynamics of the upcoming election. Or, more accurately, it is you who has unrealistic expectations for the upcoming election. I would love to hear your predictions about how many House seats the GOP will pick up this year as a whole. I could use a laugh.

"Carson could still pull it off. When the democrats were able to gerrymander the 7th district and increase the black population to 30%, democrats started winning it. The 7th is basically the city limits of Indianapolis. It is 99.7 Urban. Once the suburbs were removed from this district, the vote swung democrat."

I like how you accuse me for not understanding Indiana politics and then say things like this. Carson's district, since 1965, has elected a Republican congressman a grand total of ONE time. Andy Jacobs and Julia Carson would find your contention that Democrats only started winning that district recently quite amusing. Also, as I already mentioned, Obama won that seat with 70% of the vote. Carson is very unlikely to lose his seat no matter what you care to think. The GOP doesn't have a strong candidate running against him to begin with anyway.

"So I never said a total sweep was likely but in a year that a republican can take ted kennedy's old seat in Massacussetts, anything is possible."

Whether or not Republicans sweep the floor with Democrats this fall, this race, as well as the NJ and VA Gov races, will NOT have been bellwethers. The Democratic candidates in all three of those races either ran terrible campaigns (Deeds and Coakley) or had a track record of bad results (Corzine). The GOP will not have candidates as appealing as Scott Brown and Bob McDonnell running in all their competitive races, nor will Democrats have candidates as awful as Coakley and Deeds in all their races. Again, not saying that a big Republican year won't happen, I'm saying that those races aren't predictors of anything.

Oh, and one thing to remember about Brown, McDonnell and Christie...they all ran as moderate candidates, not as Tea Party darlings. Now that's one thing that should tell the GOP something...if they run more centrist candidates this fall, they will be a lot more pleased with the results than they will if they run extreme-right Tea Party candidates.

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Field Marshal:

"Yep, when I think of guys qualified to be Congressmen, I think of auto workers, homemakers, disc jockeys, and realtors. You win, Field Marshal."

I do too. Because voting for someone who has a career in elected office makes them qualified to make laws and regulations regarding the private market how exactly?

Career politicians are the largest problem with government today. Obama is the epitome of it. He is showing is lack of real world experience.

P.S. Then i assume you think Palin has plenty of experience for elected office having been in public office for 14 years, plus Chairperson of the Alaskan Oil and Gas Commission plus several years in broadcasting and a successful commercial fishing operation. Am i correct in that assumption?

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Ryan:

I would even say Monroe is reliably dem, I work at IU and live in Monroe County, and people here are not happy with Baron Hill. The looney left (and by that I mean the university liberals and self-declared socialists) think he is too moderate, and most others thinks that he is too left. Also, he won by a large margin in 08 because there was a record student vote, which will not happen in 2010, since BO isn't on the ballot.

I don't think it would be an easy win for either side, but I think the edge at this point would go against Hill.

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Chris V.:

Field Marshal:

"Yep, when I think of guys qualified to be Congressmen, I think of auto workers, homemakers, disc jockeys, and realtors. You win, Field Marshal."

I do too. Because voting for someone who has a career in elected office makes them qualified to make laws and regulations regarding the private market how exactly?

Career politicians are the largest problem with government today. Obama is the epitome of it. He is showing is lack of real world experience.

P.S. Then i assume you think Palin has plenty of experience for elected office having been in public office for 14 years, plus Chairperson of the Alaskan Oil and Gas Commission plus several years in broadcasting and a successful commercial fishing operation. Am i correct in that assumption?

Posted on April 30, 2010 11:47 AM


I forgot, you win again. It makes me an elitist for wanting elected officials who actually understand how the system works.

Auto workers and realtors are perfectly productive members of society, but knowing how to change a tire or sell a duplex isn't going to help much when you're trying to write laws. Experience in the political process will, or at least it ought to.

As for your question about Palin, no amount of political experience, however significant or otherwise, makes up for profound unintelligence. Plus, much of Palin's political experience came from Wasilla, which has 10,000 people in it. I want you to think of the nearest town with 10,000 to wherever you live, look up who their mayor is, and decide whether they are qualified to be a governor or Vice President.

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Field Marshal:

Chris V:

You're right. Only lawyers who served in the senate for 2 years with no personal private world experience are SMART enough to run the country. Makes perfect sense.

I don't think Palin has the experience to be Prez but since you said Obama does because of his time in Gov't, then clearly Palin does as well.

Obama clearly has no idea how main street works. All he knows is campaigning. His intelligence is also suspect in my opinion. Being a great public speaker has no correlation to intelligence. He clearly knows little about economics, foreign policy, and health care.

Liberals are so funny the way they can spin things around to suit their needs.


P.S. How's Obama's experience working out for him? On the job training seems to be failing. For someone with a supermajority in the senate, a large majority in the house, and a large amount of political capital, he has passed one significant piece of legislation which is highly unpopular.

What a waste.

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Chris V.:

Another profoundly ignorant comment. I find it particularly funny that you just go ahead and assume that I must be an Obama supporter because I disputed what you said. I didn't vote for him and I won't in 2012. You don't know what the hell I think, and the fact that you think you do only reinforces my belief that you are a complete moron.

"He clearly knows little about economics, foreign policy, and health care."

He doesn't agree with you on any of those things, so therefore he must not know anything about any of those things. That's always a sound way of thinking.

"Liberals are so funny the way they can spin things around to suit their needs."

Yes, only liberals do that.

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