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LA: 2010 Sen (Rasmussen 10/5)


Rasmussen
10/5/09; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: IVR
(Rasmussen release)

Louisiana

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 59 (chart)
Gov. Jindal: 65 / 34 (chart)

2010 Senate (trends)
Vitter 46%, Melancon 36%
Dardenne 46%, Melancon 33%

Favorable / Unfavorable
David Vitter (R): 56 / 34
Charlie Melancon (D): 43 / 39
Jay Dardenne (R): 50 / 27

 

Comments
Aaron_in_TX:

Clearly, Louisiana voters will vote for a known prostitute patron rather than a democrat.

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Field Marshal:

Jindal is highly popular in the state. I see very good things in the future of this young man.

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Stillow:

Vitter will be safe. The state has been trending more conservative lately. Jindal with very high numbers here. That's a good sign for his future prospects.

Aaron_in_TX:

Hmmm, don't throw rocks i na glass house.

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sasha:

It's a shame that till this day Jindal parades around the state and gives money to different entities like fire depts or what not...but they all came from the same stimulus he criticized. And in the 9 mths the Obama admin has been there...they have done more for the gulf coast and New Orleans than Bush admin in the 3 yrs following Katrina and Rita...wonders never cease to amaze me

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DFW freethinker:

I grew up in Louisiana. Louisiana is a conservative state, and now has a negative view of most Democrats (in particular the last Democratic governor). If they agree with a politician's votes, the personal life really is not an issue. Look up Edwin Edwards, a Democrat. If he ran again, he just might win the governorship for the third time.

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Stillow:

The Democrat party has just moved to far left for the more conservative states. So even conservative Dems are goign to have a hard time keeping there offices. A lot of these blue dogs will get nailed in 2010 because there party in general has just moved to far left for the people.

Thats why this seat will be safe for Vitter, despite his perosnal issues. The Dems even if they get a really conservative Dem to challenge him cannot overcome the hard left turn of the party as a whole.

You will see other conservative states begin to replace there Dems with real conservatives, MT, WV, the Dakota's, etc.

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jmartin4s:

In your dreams Stillow. MT will probably be blue in 2012 and the Dakotas maybe also.

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Stillow:

Oh, sorry, I forgot. The GOP is dead. Conservatives are bafoons and we are destined for one party rule by the Dems for 1,000 years.

All hail the king....

Sorry, musta just slipped my mind for a second.

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Xenobion:

Dems have largely been the same, nothing new agenda wise on their National Party platform. Really the change is between the Republicans between the conservatives and the neoconservatives. The Neos go the party under control and most talking points these days are coming from Hawks and Moralists than Insularists and Business-types so in reality I'd be saying its the Neos moving the political compass to the right rather than the Dems that just rehash old ideas really.

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Stillow:

Xenobion

Clinton moved hte party to the center. During the Bush years as the GOP moved left on fiscal issues, the Dems moved far far left to out left Bush. There is no doubt the Dems have moved far left. You may not have noticed it because under Clinton the far left was held in check by Clinton's more moderate nature and the fact the GOP controlled Congress. In the Bush years though they moved far left, the GOP was moving left too with all that big spending big g'ment crap under Bush and they were setting the agenda.

Now for the first time in a long time you have the far left controlling the WH and both chambers of Congress. So there agenda is clear and present to the people. Its fine with the ultra blue states, but red and purple states are not so gung ho at a liberal agenda. Its goign to cost the Dems many seats currently held by blue dogs.

I know you libs think the conservatives are dead, but your going to get spanked in 2010. Your grand fantasies of total control and conqeust will be short lived.

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Napoleon Complex:

The demographics in Louisiana changed dramatically after Hurricane Katrina which is why Republicans have done relatively well there lately. Jindal's election was a direct result of that. (Plus this is a Rasmussen internet poll, so who nows how accurate the numbers are.)

This has little or nothing to do with the so-called "tea-bagger" movement.

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Stillow:

Its not demographics. LA has always been a conservative state....but it wa full of conservative Dems isntead of repubs...as the dems move further left, many dems i nthe south became republicans. I think Vitter was the first republican senator from LA in like a million years....it used to be a solid democrat state for a long long time until recently.

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Xenobion:

Stillow this is one of the tenants of the Neoconservatives that they are willing to leave the old Reganites behind. Fiscal Discipline. Its not a left vs. right thing its really what you're spending your money on. NeoCons are willing to spend money/run the deficit on conservative projects like tax breaks, war spending, ect. The fiscal discipline of blue dog Demos and your Wall St. Reganites is unfortunately the minority in both parties. Social policy rules both the Dems and Repubs and they're both willing to spend it. Bush was one person. 95% of those congressmen in there voted for his budgets, so I don't think America is anymore in tune with the days of yore when we used to run this country in the black and not the red.

I try to come about this from a non-partisan perspective that fiscal discipline is really dead in both parties and there so far is no action from the Dems to do this at the moment because they think they have a blank check to dig us out of a recession and the republicans are really just the same as well. Moral/social issues are running the party rather than fiscal and noone is stepping up to change that. Where are the dry fiscal republicans that aren't thumping Bibles these days? Where art thou Steve Forbes lol?

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Napoleon Complex:

Vitter won with 51% of the vote in a "jungle primary" against four Democrats and two Independents. Since then a large portion of the Democratic base (at least several hundred thousand) have left the state, never to return.

These poll results aren't any indication of a Democratic "spanking" in 2010. According to Charlie Cook there are about 9 Democratic House seats rated as "toss-up" and 4 Republican House seats rated as "toss-up." Any speculation about a Republican sweep more than a year from now is just a wet dream. If anything, as we recover from the mess Bush and Cheney left behind the Republicans will be the ones wondering what happened to their "movement."

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Stillow:

Xenobion

That is why I say both parties have moved left fiscally. You are right, the true fiscal conservative is a minotiry in both parties. Small g'ment advocates have their work cut out for them to bring that view back into majoirty support.

There is no doubt btoh aprteis have moved left and btoh are drunk with spending. Bush did a lot of damage fiscally because he cannot control his spending. Obama is doubleding up on what Bush did because Obama cannot control his spending either.

I do use the terms left and right, because by definition a liberal is more loose with money and a true conservative is more restrained to spend money.

There is no doubt fiscal liberals now reign supreme in both parties....but, there will be a resurgance of conservatives because as we are seeing, the country simply cannot afford fiscal liberalism.

Napoleon Complex:

If you think only 9 Dems are in serious challenges for the House, you are nutier than a snickers bar....

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Napoleon Complex:

I'm presenting facts from respected sources. Go look at Charlie Cook's website. You're just offering speculation about what may happen a year from now based on emotion and ideology. If you think 30,000 Glenn Beck tea-baggers constitutes some king of movement, you're the one who's dreaming.

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Stillow:

Cook is no more qualified than any of us. Like him or not, Rove is quite good at the plitics game and I heard him on Oreilly not to long ago saying he could see 30-50 seats swap in the House. Everyone has there opinion I guess, there is not a lot of house polling out, but based on Senate polling the Dems at least right now look to be in danger of losing a lot of seats.Based on recent polling the Dems are looking to lose 5-8 seats.

Remember, Cook is no better than you or I....we all have our opinions and we can debate them....but don't send me the link of some "expert"....he is no more an expert than you or I.


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Napoleon Complex:

Okay, so you're just an ideologue. I get it now. Karl Rove? 50 House seats? Now that is funny.

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