Articles and Analysis


LA: Republican Primary (PPP 8/21-22)

Topics: Louisiana , poll

Public Policy Polling (D)
8/21-22/10; 358 likely Republican primary voters, 5.2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP release)


2010 Senate: Republican Primary
81% Vitter, 5% Traylor, 4% Accardo

2012 President: Republican Primary
25% Gingrich, 24% Huckabee, 20% Palin, 16% Romney, 7% Paul



No love for Jindal?



Slightly surprised this is so lopsided. I thought with a couple of showing Melancon well inside the ballpark, though still trailing by double-digits, that this might be closer. I think this spells bad news for Melancon, because it means the GOPers in the state are standing by their man...guess they learned one lesson from the Senator's wife.


Field Marshal:

Jindal was not an option in the poll.



I realize I am one of only a couple of cons here who support Palin, but you guys have to admit that she's been golden for our causes. Whatever her motives may be, she is out there fighting day after day. Sticking her political neck out by endorsing impossible candidates (yes, some of those may end up being counterproductive, like say Fiorina), Facebooking, Tweeting(all by herself, no staff or handlers of any kind), holding BOBO's feet to the fire, and generally influencing national discourse LIKE NO OTHER.

Common political wisdom suggests that a potential presidential contender keeps his powder dry and dispenses his opinions sparingly and cautiously. Newt has been out there, and finally started getting a little press coverage of his opinions, but he does tend to go overboard and it ends up biting his in the azz. And unlike Palin, his moves look very contrived. And where is Mitt? Holed up in a bunker with his team of stylists, discussing hair strategy for 2012? So it appears.

I remember posting on another site, early into BOBO's reign, that after BOBO, Sarah is the second most powerful politician in the country. Of course I expectantly was laughed at, and told that White House janitor was more influential, but as far as influencing the electorate goes, I think she has surpassed BOBO at this point. Sure, he gets a ton more press, although I would argue that she is definitely second, and while his press is mostly positive and hers is overwhelmingly negative, he lost the ear of the public. Her supporters maybe limited in numbers, but I think that number has surpassed the number of those who take BOBO seriously.

Another thing I proclaimed even before BOBO took office, was that he really really wanted to win the job, but would probably get bored and/or frustrated before first term is out. Wanting to be the Leader of Free World and actually doing the job are not necessarily within the same skill and personality trait sets. I said at the time, that he may simply not run for reelection, or run just half-heartedly enough not to win. I did not think that he might get primaried at the time, but it certainly looks like a possibility now. So, it's gratifying to read recent speculations by some in MSM about his possible disinterest in second term. He's never held a "real" job for any length of time, and it's already looking overwhelming, less than half way through.

To get to the point, unless Hillary primaries BOBO and wins, I think Palin has to be considered the favorite to win in 2012. If she runs, that is.



StatyPolly: tl;dr (look it up)



Damn Boomer!

And you were the one and only reader in my target audience. Now what I do?



I could hook you up with some Ritalin..?


Field Marshal:

Voters trust the GOP now on all 10 of the most important issues.




So you're actually proud of the freak show that is Sarah Palin? The mental midget who does her best to muddy any chance at rational or reasonable policy debate? An attention whore who quit here own job in order to fleece gullible conservatives out of every last nickel she could get?



Great point, SJ22!

Thanks for the reminder. Yeah, the fact that the libbies are completely mesmerized, while driven to the deep end by her, is proof positive that her form is perfect and her message is pure. Swishhhh, nothing but net.



This is confirmation that Romney will have problems in southern republican primaries.

I would wager that Palin would get the majority of Huckabee's voters.



"Facebooking, Tweeting(all by herself, no staff or handlers of any kind), holding BOBO's feet to the fire, and generally influencing national discourse LIKE NO OTHER."

I don't really see how tweeting and facebooking makes her more legitimate. I have some students that could blow her out of the water in that. Make one of them president!

"Sarah is the second most powerful politician in the country."

I would say 2nd most prominent. Mayyybe 3rd behind Hillary or Bill Clinton. But not 2nd most powerful. She gave up what political authority she had.

"while his press is mostly positive and hers is overwhelmingly negative, he lost the ear of the public. "

She's lost the ear of anyone that doesn't already agree with her. She hasn't gotten any more serious about learning anything. Even the speeches or interviews conservatives try to show me are not very impressive. The people that like her have to ignore that aspect. If she were president, I would expect her to be HEAVILY influenced by manipulative people around her, since she seems to disdain pretty much any kind of intellectual exploration. She already knows what she needs to know, and learned it a long time ago.

I read her book, which was a pretty good window on her philosophy. Gems like "Everything I ever needed to know I learned on the basketball court" stood out for me.

"To get to the point, unless Hillary primaries BOBO and wins,"

On what issue would Hillary run against Obama on? They agree on most everything. If she were president she would not have given the republicans the time of day. She said as much during the campaign, and has responded that way in congressional hearings. Obama bent over backwards trying to be sensitive with them and it got him nowhere.

I can see a scenario where Palin wins...she could probably repeat a Bush 2004-style map, but not much more than that. Problem is that she would probably not make any headway into the Gore/Kerry states, which someone like Romney could do. Unless some pressure is put on Obama's backcourt, he will probably win fairly easily.

Palin would get at best around 300 EV's, and could possibly get as low as 153. Obama probably will not go below 200 and could easily get as high as 385 if Palin is the nominee.

She probably cost McCain votes, or at least she did not cause him a net gain. She lost more moderates than conservatives she gained in already-red states. If McCain had reinforced his maverick/independent image and chosen Lieberman or even Pawlenty, the election would have been closer.



Aaron, the point about her facebooking is that she is not shy about dispensing her opinions on hot national issues. Other presidential hopefuls (assuming she is one) are mostly tight lipped and cautious. And she does not employ aids or speechwriters. It may be a purposeful strategy, and if it is it's quite brilliant. She is really connecting well in her own voice. Even if it's only in conservative circles right now. If she is running, those are her first priority.

I agree that Bill and Hill made a remarkable recovery in the past few years, but for now, they are certainly keeping out of the spotlight. When I say "powerful politician", I refer to the ability to sway public opinion. I won't dispute that the Clintons could more effective than Palin, should she/he/they decide to jump in the fray. It's a hypothetical at this point though.

"She's lost the ear of anyone that doesn't already agree with her." Also true, but should she win the primary, or really, just get out to an early primary lead, I expect a shift in public opinion on her. I actually expect a significantly more favorable treatment from the LameStreamMedia of her. It's kinda a separate post. But things change, and so do opinions and the media is gonna follow to a certain degree. Not saying they'll endorse her or anything, but they'll treat her as a more mainstream candidate.

"On what issue would Hillary run against Obama on?"

Just her significantly higher favorability ratings. Never mind that a lot of people think BOBO is Kenyan born secret Muslim. Polls show a large percentage of population thinks he is such things as a liar, a socialist, etc.. Not good. You really don't think she could beat him in a primary, if the environment remains the same a year from now? I do. Although like you, I prefer she doesn't.

"Palin would get at best around 300 EV's,"

I just don't buy the static state of EV's, as we discussed a while ago. Things shift. Texas was one of the more Dem states in the nation just a couple-three decades ago, while CA and NY were solid GOP country at the same time.

Not to compare off year elections to presidential years, but still, look at VA - +6 for BO in 08, + 17 for McDonnell 12 short months later. A 23 point turnaround. 19 point turnaround in Joisey, and a 30 point turnaround for Scott Brown 14 months after giving BO a 26 point win in Mass.

Not saying I expect Joisey and Mass to turn bright red or anything, but I am saying that swift and significant changes are possible.


Vance Ulrich:

Virginia is trending alright...liberal!!!

State House-Republican
State Senate-Republican
Congressional delegation-8 Republicans, 3 Democrats
Senators-2 Republicans
Voted for Bush

State House-Republican
State Senate-Democrat
Congressional Delegation-6 Democrats, 5 Republicans
Senators-2 Democrats
Voted for Obama

In fact, my county that is a DC suburb voted 53% for Bush in 2004 but voted 58% for Obama in 2008. Northern Virginia is far and away the fastest growing part of the state and the most liberal part of the state. The most popular man in Virginia is also a Democrat, Mark Warner.


Chris V.:

Palin was exposed last time around as lacking the both the effort and the intellectual capacity required to run in a national race. You will find plenty of Republicans and conservatives who agree with her, even like her, but do not think she is presidential material.

It would make no sense for her to run for President. I think she has already realized what the best niche for her is. In her current role, she is able to exert influence over contests all across the country and pull in good money from all of the appearance fees.




This ain't 2008.

"Congressional Delegation-6 Democrats, 5 Republicans"

Looks like there'll be 2 Dems left after Nov.

"In fact, my county that is a DC suburb voted 53% for Bush in 2004 but voted 58% for Obama in 2008. Northern Virginia is far and away the fastest growing part of the state and the most liberal part of the state."

Haha, and the fact that there is been a hiring and pay hikes orgy for USELESS and CORRUPT fed employees paid for by HARDWORKING and PRODUCTIVE Americans is purely coincidental.



"It would make no sense for her to run for President."

It would make perfect sense FOR her to do so. Republicans don't have a good record in the 20th century forward running against incumbent democrats. The only one they beat was Carter, while democrats beat Hoover, Ford, and Bush I. The republicans are desperately trying to compare Obama to Carter - which is EXACTLY what they did throughout Bill Clinton's first term. There are many op-eds from the 90s comparing those two. There are more now since the chatterati class has enlarged so much.

Palin will never be so prominent as right now when Obama is president. Just look at her reception at that Glen Beck rally. Currently no elected republican has that kind of effect. That's their major problem - They have literally no one among their elected officials that will be able to unite the republican coalition against Obama in 2012. All of the potentials have major weaknesses, her included. But she has that innate political skill that none of the others have, particularly Romney, who would be her main competitor. She would wipe the floor with him in the primary - she is good at using her sex against condescending men. Got practice with that in Alaska. She will fade after 2012 for sure for two major reasons: 1) more serious republicans (possibly Ryan, etc...) will be coming forward and 2) her looks will inevitably fade as she eclipses 50. For a woman this is a big deal, and my thesis is that optics are *extremely* important to presidential candidates.

She probably wouldn't win...it'll be like Goldwater. BUT! She would inspire future people and republicans WOULD produce someone with her appeal that is viewed as presidential material. Kind of like Goldwater paved the way for Reagan. Without Goldwater, the republicans would have run Gerald Ford - Nelson Rockefeller types that would continue to lose. If the republicans ran Romney and lost it would probably be worse if they ran Palin and lost.



"Polls show a large percentage of population thinks he is such things as a liar, a socialist, etc.. Not good. You really don't think she could beat him in a primary, if the environment remains the same a year from now? I do."

No I don't. She would need a point of leverage against Obama other than just approval rating. They are too close on the issues. This isn't Kennedy vs. Carter who fundamentally disagreed. TK said Carter wasn't a real democrat.

If Hillary were president, republicans would be saying she was a liar most definitely, a socialist most likely, and people would also be saying she has people killed or some other outlandish substitute for "Kenyan Muslim," the outlandish statement du jour right now.

People seem to forget she was the most hated woman in America prior to 2008 when she was beaten by the new charismatic man. Republicans WANTED to run against her! They had reams of opposition research. She was the great devil, secretive, conniving, liar, ambitious and on and on. Very polarizing. Funny how removing the spotlight makes all that vanish.

If Hillary were president, I have no doubt she would be at the same level Obama is, possibly several points lower. She would have pushed through a stimulus and a health care bill. People would be saying "the dems should have gone with Obama."


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