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MA: Brown 48 Coakley 45 (ARG 1/12-14)


American Research Group
1/12-1/14/10; 600 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
(ARG release)

Massachusetts

2010 Senate
48% Brown, 45% Coakley (chart)

 

Comments
MASS-e:

Well from the rumored internals & from the last few polls there seems to be some consistency. Whether it's right or wrong is a question that will be answered on Tuesday.

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Field Marshal:

Woo hoo!!

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Farleftandproud:

Turnout is the key for Coakley's win. If Brown wins, I'll have to kick a lot of democratic leaning voters asses if they don't show up. The good news will be healthcare can get passed in a few weeks before all the absentees are counted. That is legal to do in most states. It ain't over til it's over. It will also give the left a big wakeup call which is much needed at this time.

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Publius:

Interesting numbers in the poll.

Brown below 50%
Within MOE
Looks like Democrats were underpolled here (44%)
36% Unenrolled? Sounds like a lot to me.
Will Brown win 94% of Republicans on Tuesday?

Good poll for Brown, but not great.

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MASS-e:

Farleft, if Brown wins it would be political suicide for Dems to ram the bill thru.

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Roman:

Farleftandproud,

Just give up. Do what I did.

After I found out Brown had a chance to win, I bought United Healthcare stock (biggest health insurance company in US) And I have enjoyed its run. On Friday, when the market tanked, United Healthcare was up.

Americans are stupid. Insurance company executives are celebrating. So, my message to you Farleftandproud is if you can't beat them, join them. Buy their stock and you too can share in the benefits of ripping off the American public.

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Roman:

By the way, I would recommend buying banks on Monday too. Because Obama's efforts at meaningful regulations will fail as well.

The playbook is now simple for the financial elites. Just call all of Obama's regulatory effots communism/socialism/Nazism and the American public will oppose his regulatory agenda as well.

This past year has really made me a cynic and I am going to do the same thing that the rich elites do. Don't try to improve the system, just try to find out how you can take advantage of the system.

At the moment, the easiest way is to buy healthcare insurance companies and banks' stocks.

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tom brady:

There's been a net shift of between 10-15% of the women's vote from Coakley to Brown since the start of the year - what explains that?

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Stillow:

Roman

I too bought insurance stocks, but bught them a few months ago. Its been a good ride...since the bill has become nothing more than a huge corporate giveaway....these big insurance comapnies and stock holders like you and I are laughing all the way to the bank.

Real reform died when Pelosi got hold of it....then it was buried when Reid got hold of it....all that is left is words on paper titled HRC....but its meaningless reform.

IMO we are witnessing the total destruction of the modern democratic party. A Brown win will be only the first step. You simply cannot spit i nthe face of 2/3 of the american people and expect them to just roll over.

"With Brown win it will put senate races in play no one thought would be, WI, OR, WA, IN, NY, CA...the list goes on. If a republican can win in Mass running one basically one issue, his opposition to HCR as its currently written, thn a republican can win anywhere on that single issue.

I have never seen a party so willing to totally destroy itself.

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TR in VA:

Roman MAYBE Mr Oama should of gone after banking and financial reform FIRST.

he was elected becasue Mr McCain had NO clue about the economy in sept 2008 when the meltdown started.

Mr Obama was NOT elected to "fix" health care as his number 1 priority. The decision to do so was AWFUL....

The #1 issue swing IND voters like myself were and are STILL furious over is the total lack of movement on this issue. It makes Mr Obama Hope and change look like more like
disappointment and BS

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TR in VA:

A trend worth noting as well: 9 percent of voters say they'd already cast a ballot through absentee voting. Brown leads Coakley among this group 58-42.

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StatyPolly:

What's ARG's reputation here?

Left, right? Accuracy?

Thanks in advance..

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Roman:

TR in VA,

I actually completely agree with you. 20-30 years from now that will be the lesson people take from the Obama presidency.

Obama should have thought why he was elected before he set his agenda. The people who voted for him voted for him to fix the economy as probably the #1 priority. And #2 was to wrap up the wars overseas. #3 was probably to regulate the banks. Instead he made priority #4, health care, #1.

It's sad really.

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LordMike:

ARG has a terrible reputation overall, but the numbers here look sound.

As for his criticism of healthcare strategy, Bill Clinton was advised to "fix the economy" first and then do healthcare, and look what happened to him. Obama WAS voted to fix healthcare. It has been and is the #1 priority amongst Democrats for generations. It was the cause of Ted Kennedy's life. How disrespectful that this Bush clone will work to kill this public servants' dream for the disenfranchised.

The problem has been that the process has taken way too long and has been way too all-consuming... Unfortunately, if this fails here, there will not be any healthcare reform of any kind for generations. No politician will touch this again. The GOP doesn't care--sick people are considered disposable to them, and dems will be scared to ever take this on again.

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obamalover:

I have never seen a poll with Brown over 50%. I have, however seen polls with Coakley over 50%.

I suspect Brown has a large base of support, but his ceiling is around 49 or 50. I'm still not convinced he can pull this out.

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Xenobion:

I smell immense mispolling similar to the Clinton/Obama NH primaries on this one guys.

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jim:

Yo Farleftandproud:

You say: "The good news will be healthcare can get passed in a few weeks before all the absentees are counted. "

I figure that the merits of the health legislation are fair game and grounds for honest debate.

But if Democrats -- whether in Massachusetts or in Washington -- try any hanky panky on seating Brown (if he wins, obviously), there will be public outrage of a really massive kind. Why is it that you guys don't see that the way these bills have been handled -- Pelosi's iron fist in the House, Reid's bought-and-paid-for tactics in the Seate, the evasion of a conference committee, the in camera negotiations at the White House (not on C-Span for sure), the blatant cave to labor on the "cadillac" plans -- have infuriated a large majority of voters nationwide (I'm sure you've looked at the trend box at the top of this site's home page). Obama and Pelosi seem to me under the near-psychotic delusion that when they "explain" the new health law to the public the public will be eternally grateful. This is just willful denial. House democrats are increasingly wary about running this fall on a vote for health care. They will breathe a huge sigh of relief if Brown wins and the bills die. If Brown does win on Tuesday (I myself still believe Coakley will pull it out) and the Congressional Democrats do some sort of end run on health care, if nothing else the shock and awe of the public reaction will be fun to watch.

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Ike:

Xenobion may be right if the Coakley forces are quietly getting angry and ready to flood to the polls...another potential similarity would be women who grow tired of hearing the blame cast on the female candidate --as usual. Mass women should be calling their friends.....

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TR in VA:

LORD MIKE

charlie Cook has written a great Piece about this argument... Healthcare vs Bank/ finance reform. You can find it over at real clear web iste friday edition

As or Bill Clinton... Looked what happened to him... um he was 1st democrat since FDR re-elected. so what is your Point? That is a bad thing?

Again I am NOT saying health care reform is NOT a major issue. It is.

what I am saying is that with IND voters whom Obama carried by Huge numbers in 2008 in states such as IND VA NC-- traditionally GOP states-- their #1 issue was NOT healthcare reform.

This is JMHO... but by going after bank reforming FIRST Obama and the Dems would of kept these IND voters much closer to Obama. In addition Obama and the Dems would be much stronger in 2010 AND be able to say " hey we fixed the Bush mess by passing this legislation and reforms.." able to run on the issue in 2010...

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Stillow:

HCR is a major issue, but people oppose it so overhwlemingly because what we are gettig is not reform. Its politicans and big corps making deals with eachother. The corps will be getting huge handouts....and in turn will give huge contirbutions to poltiicans. While the rest of us suffer in a degraded system, subjected to higher costs, taxes and longer waits/rationing.

congress exdempted themselves for good reason. People wanted real reform, not corrupted deal making and 2,000 pages of nonsense no one can understand. people wanted transparency, not behind closed door secret meetings in the dead of night.

Them Dems I beleive have made the biggest miscalculation in the hsitory of politics. I honestly don't think they have a clue whats in store for them. When the Bush tax cuts expire, when new taxes for this so called HCR kick in soon, it will be a huge double wammy on people alredy struggling to get by. Then new taxes on employers will lead to more layoffs.

I see nothing but super bad news for Dems in 2010 and 2012. uglier than I think anyone right now realizes for them.

I, like most americans wanted real HCR reform, we got nothing but corruption and business as usual from DC.

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Publius:

Obama made the correct political decision about health care. The Republicans were always going to try to block it, so he decided to do it while the Democrats had 60 votes. When the economy rebounds, independents will come back. Reagan was in the same position in 1982.

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jim:

Stillow:

I'm with you 100%. Either you and I are badly mistaken (highly unlikely of course LOL) or the Dems are deaf and blind on how the public feels about the contents of the bills AND the sleazy tactics employed on their behalf in Congress and now during the White House meetings.

Whenever a Dem tries to demonstrate how wonderful the legislation is, he or she always cites the ban on refusing to insure people with prior conditions. Like ANYBODY is against that provision (although it will cost the insured an arm and a leg).

It's like they are knocking each other over trying to get to the Kool Aid first.

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obamalover:

@Jim

Sleazy tactics? You mean making very old and deathly ill Senators (like Kennedy and Byrd) come to Capitol Hill so they can vote to defeat filibusters? The filibuster has been used 70% of the time during this Congress, which is by far the most in history. Republicans are using every procedural tool at their disposal to stall and obstruct the will of the majority in Congress. I'm surprised the hypocrisy of your post didn't smack you in the face.

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jim:

Well, it's paying off big time for the GOP now. If the GOP can prevent enactment of health legislation, the first people to be grateful will be Democratic candidates in the fall elections.

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bonncaruso:

Publius wrote:

"Interesting numbers in the poll.

Brown below 50%
Within MOE
Looks like Democrats were underpolled here (44%)
36% Unenrolled? Sounds like a lot to me.
Will Brown win 94% of Republicans on Tuesday?

Good poll for Brown, but not great."

Actually 36% unenrolled is UNDER the state statistics. For 2008, 50.75% of all registered voters in MA were unenrolled (read that as: independent).


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Aaron_in_TX:

"I, like most americans wanted real HCR reform,"

"Like ANYBODY is against that provision (although it will cost the insured an arm and a leg)."

Sure you're for it, along with the republicans. Cross your heart and hope to die you are.

I just love it when republicans say they are for health care reform, just not this one.

Well, then why didn't they do it when they were in control of congress for 12 years, 6 of those years the presidency included. Why didn't they get rid of pre-existing conditions? Why did they allow the number of uninsured to increase?

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Aaron_in_TX:

Iirc, one of the first things democrats did when they took over congress was expand SCHIP and increase the minimum wage (gradually). I also recall that the republicans were against that, particularly SCHIP.

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Farleftandproud:

I would like to tell one of the right wingers who critisized my comment by implying we should ram the health care bill through. If Democrats wanted to ram the health care bill through we would have completed it last November or December. We wouldn't have waited until nearly March to pick a HHS secretary. The media has twisted healthcare reform to the point where it has been distorted. I look at the polls from last summer and it's support! If Democrats pass it before there may be a possible loss of the 60th vote, than I will say it was the biggest victory ever in America.

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Farleftandproud:

I still predict a Coakley Victory. It will be narrow and she will dodge a bullet. I predict that we may not even know who wins right away. It will be like Kerry in Wisconsin in 2004. Kerry was behind by 4 points on most of the polls and ended up winning by less than 10,000 votes. Like Coakley Kerry couldn't connect to the voters in Wisconsin and polls showed it, but he won. Mass is far more Democratic and progressive than WI and given the turnout won't be as good as a midterm or presidential election, it will be enough for Martha to win.

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Farleftandproud:

Even if Brown wins, he'll have slightly more seniority in the senate than Roland Burris.

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Farleftandproud:

Well that is why I am a progressive and not a status quo Americrat. Health care is a huge issue to me. When you have a system that keeps at least 40 million Americans uninsured there is something wrong with that. Every western Democracy has universal health care and even some developing countries have tried to put the system in place. I don't look at public opinion, I look at the people who have suffered and work hard, have jobs and still haven't been to a dentist or dr in many years. Many of these free clinics were in states where Obama and healthcare reform isn't popular, but the lines were so long, and the people who went to these free clinics want health reform. There are some very selfish elements in America that never think of the future; people can lose their job, lose their benefits and be in between jobs or have to take something part time; having regulations to make it so, people can be elligable for a discounted health insurance program, based on low income, isn't too much to ask. Creating a system that creates competition, isn't too much to ask. Most of all, making sure that insurance companies can't discriminate based on prexisting conditions, should be something that all politicians support, but they won't. Obama said a few months ago, if he wanted to be popular, he wouldn't have tried to get health care passed and simply gave smooth speeches and looked like a superb diplomat overseas. I admit, if he had taken that course he would be more popular now, but the measure of a man is to take risks. That is why I stick by the president and that is why I don't worry about day to day polls, I worry about our countries future.

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mark:

What a choice: Republican or Democrat. One party is stupid and the other is evil. I get a kick out of the unintelligent conclusions that corporations are bad. Corporations are not innately evil. It is people who manage corporations that have the potential for corruption. Why? Too much power and persuasion. And who runs the government? Same people… There are no angels in the government. They have the same nature as those that run a business. The government will succumb to that which corrupts any of us: too much power and persuasion. Conclusion: you grant the government to much control; you will have the most evil corporation that you can imagine. Although, their potential for deviltry has few limits because there is no oversight or competition. I don’t want to hear you pansies complain when the government does not fulfill your emotionally educed dreams of an enlightened race who will only serve your best interests. History is on my side on this one.

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Farleftandproud:

WHich party is stupid and which one is evil mark? I would say the one in power is stupid for having so many factions and being so indecisive and putting their president in a vulnerable position and the one out of power is evil because some allow government to be based on religious beliefs, want more limited government when it isn't to their advantage and more government control like going into Iraq and overturning Roe VS Wade, when it is to their advantage.

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Constitution_First:

A HUGE issue with the current House & Senate bills is that they both require all Americans to purchase health insurance. It is not within the legal right of the US Government to FORCE anyone to purchase any good or service.

Additionally, the House and Senate bills do not require illegal immigrants, prisoners and foreign nationals to purchase insurance. Illegal immigrants already receive a TON of help...I live in a state where we spend millions helping illegal immigrants thanks to the tax dollars of LEGAL citizens. Prisoners already get medical attention via the tax payers. And foreign nationals will look that much more attractive to employers since they do not have to supply them with health insurance benefits nor pay a penalty to the IRS for not doing so as they would have to with a US Citizen. American workers have already lost too many jobs to foreign workers.

Finally, there is a real problem when UNIONS can be excused from the 40% excise tax while other American citizens with "Cadillac" plans have to pay the tax! This is not just.

I am not saying that we do not need health care reform. We just do not need the reform as it is laid out in the current House and Senate bills.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"I am not saying that we do not need health care reform. We just do not need the reform as it is laid out in the current House and Senate bills."

Cross my heart and hope to die, I'm for reform! I just think the republicans could do it better!

Bull. If republicans cared about it, they'd have done something about it when they had the chance and there would be no need for reform now.

It is not their issue. Just like promoting gun ownership or deporting illegal immigration is not the democrats' issue, so it would be unlikely for them to resolve those issues in the way republicans want. They're philosophically opposed to health reform on the basis of so-called individual responsibility. Therefore anyone uninsured or bankrupted due to health costs is only a victim of their own negligence or ineptitude. I wish they would just man up and say it.

Just look at their arguments: 85% of people are uninsured; people don't want this health care bill because they're happy with their health care. OF COURSE people are happy if they're not sick and covered! The uninsured are a minority and an especially disempowered one, and clearly republicans care little about their plight. Talk about tyranny of the majority. I guess my desire for a lower premium trumps a sick person's right to access health services without incurring bankruptcy.

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Aaron_in_TX:

**I meant 85% of people are insured** above

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Tikhon Botchkarev:

Mark, I think you will find that at no time in history have we had the ability to communicate so fast, and oversee quite so much as we do now. That said, few think we will be in a Utopian society where everyone wants what's best for everyone. With political power, you can do quite well for yourself, even if you do not resort to large scale corruption. This is especially true if there are plenty of people to call you out on anything too extreme.

The goal is to make what's good for individual people also be good for society, and at the same time keep them scared enough of doing anything too serious, because someone will surely pick up on it, and it'll get back to their constituents.

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Farleftandproud:

I would at least like to see Olympia Snowe who knows what it was like to be an orphan as a child and was adapted what it is like to be down and out. She was born in Rochester and abandoned by her real parents and took a train to see her aunt in Maine. She may indeed be the only Republican in the senate who isn't thinking about the health care debate as a popularity contest. I am hoping that she may be the last hope to not let health care go down. On one token she'll be worried that the approval of Obama's health care plan has plummetted, but than again she is from Maine, she has a few years before she is re-elected. She wanted to be on the right side of history. If I have to make the trip to Maine with a group of people to meet with her staff, I will.

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Farleftandproud:

The Vote Certification in Mass, if Brown wins, is justifiable. Mass routinely take 10 days to certify the votes, even if a democrat wins. Oregon takes nearly two weeks to certify who won the presidential election. This is totally legitimate.

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Field Marshal:

Aaron,

By your ridiculous conclusions, the dems dont care about the 85% WITH health insurance and ONLY care about the poor and uninsured.

The reason "nothing" (which is more liberal lies and propaganda) was done for the 6 years when the Reps had control of congress and the white house is because they did not have a supermajority. The are really only two directions to take health care; towards single payer and towards free-market principles. Since free market principles are the only direction that has shown to reduce costs while still increasing supply, the Dems of course cant allow that. Thus, any large proposals in health care would have been filibustered by the Dems. Or, the Reps had to couple some free markets ideas (expansion of HSAs and medicare advantage) with single payer like Medicare Part D.

Farleft,

The Reps are the side of progress and the people, the Dems are the side of power and suppression. That's the way i see it anyway.

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mark:

“one out of power is evil because some allow government to be based on religious beliefs”

With all due respect, your statement is actually a prejudice against a particular religion: Christianity. Why? Because we are all religious. It is the human condition. None of us have all the answers but humans need to satisfy the question, “who am I and what am I doing here?” It’s called self-awareness. Thus we create belief systems. To that end, all of us end up with a few choices: choose a group belief; follow some guru or what some book might espous; or create a self-styled belief system (probably the scariest only because of the haughty and high-minded attitude). Perhaps there are a few more that those are my ideas. The logic in your your belittling statement against religion must conclude that if we were all atheist, then life would be “heavenly.” Well, Atheism is also a religion. In fact, it is the least intuitive religion because it claims there is no God. But, that conclusion demands that they are all-knowing (the embodiment of knowledge) because they can prove that notion. In doing so, they become that which they deny: a god themselves. Let’s get real. There is not a society in history or in the world today that is not premised on a philosophy. We all have one. The question becomes who’s will you follow and is it a good one or a bad one. The president and congress have a world view (a religion) that they are use to guide their actions and votes. The founders of this country are no angels but they were students of history and failed governments. They developed a system that would balance out the worst in human nature and result in a better system---not a perfect system. What did they try to balance? Pride. The most insidious human fault that is run amuck in our government and will kill this country because it is the antithesis of the attitude of service. You who attack the rich and big business are really saying that concentrating this hated societal element in the form of government is a better thing (a concentrated few that hold all of the power and riches). You won’t eliminate it. You only make it more vertical. Nice….

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Field Marshal:

Very good post Mark.

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jim:

The Last Hurrah?

The get-out-the-vote machinery under Mayor Curley became the stuff of legend and the gold standard for retail politics.

But is there enough of that machine left to help Coakley? Is walking-around-money going to do the trick? will the long-dead vote not only early but often?

Chatter about voter corruption is all about Coakley. Brown may be no more than beautiful and stupid (according to the Dems), but no one is suggesting he is buying votes.

Ok fellow Brownies: do your duty. Every $5 helps. https://www.icontribute.us/scottbrown/

GO BROWN!

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Farleftandproud:

Well if the GOP operatives could spend a few million to draw out the Minnesota Recount for Norm Coleman's seat for 6 months, I think 2 weeks in Mass before Brown's swearing in sounds pretty fair to me. I am so sick of conservatives trying to point the finger at Democrats when they do things that are much worse themselves. Lets not forget the florida recount. At least Martha Coakley's brother or husband isn't the governor, like Bush in Florida where we will never know who really won that year. Conservatives are full of crap.

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Farleftandproud:

the Dems are the side of power and suppression and the GOP doesn't? They took us to war in Iraq and made people believe there were weapons of Mass destruction, and Bin ladin wasn't in Iraq, and there were no weapons of mass destruction. I think that person making the comment is mistaken, and in his or her point of view, what they see as suppression and tyranny as a conservative, will always be different than what a progressive would view as suppression. There really isn't a good solution and until politicians stop their delay tactics and can find bi-partisan ground our country will be a mess. The GOP never really tried to make it bi-partisan, that is why I wonder why they even showed up on weekends as much as they did to fight it. If the GOP had an alternate plan to cover all Americans, than perhaps I would give them credit. None of their plans had any regulations on cutting costs, none of their plans ever would protect people from being denied by pre-existing conditions. They are heartless bastards who really aren't even human in my opinion. Someday there will be a revolt against them. They are war mongers and spend lots on military yet deny millions of affordable health care; they may be winning now but someday they will pay.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"the dems dont care about the 85% WITH health insurance and ONLY care about the poor and uninsured."

I never said that. You're acting as if it's a zero sum game - by insuring the uninsured it takes away from those people who are insured. That's not the case, although a variation of that argument has been used since the founding on all kinds of issues.

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Farleftandproud:

I am sorry if I implied that all Republicans don't care about the uninsured or only care about helping white people. I get emotional and say things I don't mean. I also want to say that I don't know what many of these republicans who I bash are like as people. Many of them may be really great people, and many Democrats whose policies I like may be lousy people. It is the policies I think are inhumane, not the actual people. I just wanted to clarify that.

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