Articles and Analysis


MA: Brown 51, Coakley 46 (PPP 1/16-17)

Public Policy Polling
1/16-17/10; 1,231 likely voters, 2.8% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(PPP analysis, results & crosstabs)


2010 Senate (trends)
51% Scott Brown, 46% Martha Coakley, 4% undecided

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brown: 56 / 37
Coakley: 44 / 51


TR in VA:

wow...!!!! Brown has 19 point Positive differential on Favorable while Coakley is -6 in the hole.

Guess those attacks ads that Brown is against all rape victims getting medical attention in hospitals ... arent working.

Given the other recent polls since the 15th... this looks over to me.



The sample shows Obama at 44$ approval... if that's the sample that actually shows up to vote, then, yes, it is over...

We'll see what Rasmussen and DKos come up with tomorrow... Ras will probably have it closer to play it safe, DKos will have it even closer stil not to demoralize the base...



Lets see what the Rass poll shows before anyone calls anything over. Don't forget, Mass has a very powerful democratic machine. Brown has to win by a few points or more, if its a narrow victory, Dems will "find" the votes to push Coakley over the top.

Right now Brown is deifnatley the favorite to win though...but the rass poll will be helpful.



The age gap is very irregular in this poll. 62% Obama approval among 18-19, 39% among 30-45, 44% among both 46-65 and 65+. Strange that the elderly are not lower than everyone else. Usually the age gap regresses in a linear fashion.

There must be some sort of anti-Obama switch that turns on your 30th birthday.



The GenXer's are from the Reagan generation... they are actually the most loyal GOP'ers. Obama tied with them in 2008.

As for older voters, these are the Kennedy voters. They are Coakley's base, actually, so it's not surprirsing that they are highly represented here...



" Obama tied with them in 2008."

I guess it depends whether they're early or late Gen Xers, since CNN showed Obama winning 30-39 by 10 points and splitting those in their 40's. But in Mass Obama won them by 18. Still, the regression was mostly linear, although Mass does seem to have a much stronger contingent of older democrats.

The same exits showed Obama winning youth in MA with 78% so 62% is actually a pretty big drop.




Aaron, this sample is more conservative than the electorate as a whole. As Tom Jensen said in the writeup, if she gets more Democrats to the polls, than are reflected here, then she wins... Right now, the electorate, as they see it, consists mostly of the conservative minority in the state.



I have avoided commenting on this race until now. I can only say that if the dems end up losing this speaking frankly they deserve to. I hope this finally serves as a wake up call- EARTH TO THE DEMS BARACK OBAMA IS NOT ON THE BALLOT! The Democrats keep living in this fantasy world that Obama got elected and therefore they can sit on their asses, do nothing and the same results will happen right? WRONG! Obama is not a dictator and if you want to see the things you care about enacted it takes WORK! It was never a secret nor should it come as any surprise that the gop was going to do everything in it's power to stymie Obama at every turn, but once again the dems ho-hum attitude may now cost them big time. Martha Coakley has probabaly run the worst campaign since Dukakis and it all could have been avoided if she had made even a half hearted effort. I did not vote for Barack Obama because I wanted to feel good about voting for a black man. I did not vote for Barack Obama because I wanted to "cherish the moment". I did not vote for Brack Obama because
I wanted to prove that we as a nation could "move beyond" race. I voted for Barack Obama because George W. Bush SUCKED and I wanted real fundamental change. I will give Obama partial credit for attempting to deliver on that change, but he cannot do it alone!



our good friend Farleftandproudofit is being uncharacteristically quiet this morning.

CNN is reporting that the White House believes Brown will win.

The second biggest story is the continued effort by Washington Dems to figure out ways to railroad the health bill through while circumventing a Brown win (if it happens). Any list of the 5 most tone-deaf episodes in American history would have to include what seems like willful refusal by the Dems to understand how much growing majorities of voters are ENRAGED by these tactics. Majorities hate the legislation on its merits AND they hate the tactics that have been used to advance it against the public will. If Democratic candidates in the fall elections were listed on the stock exchange, investors would be selling short in droves.



Two fishy things about the internals:
1. 44 percent approve of Obama's job performance, while 43 percent disapprove. I find that hard to believe--if that's at all accurate, Obama's approval ratings are in Bush territory nationally.
2. Over 70 percent of the sample is over 45. I know that special election electorates are older than normal-cycle elections, but 70 percent? That isn't possible.

Regardless, this election is a big reason why we should never, ever take voters for granted (hello, McCain in Indiana, 2008?).



PPP is not going to bend over backwards to show a big enough Brown margin to possibly demoralize the Dem base, volunteers, etc. It's a DEM pollster. Therefore one has to believe that this is a pretty accurate reflection of where the electorate that's most likely to vote is at this point. Of course there are good polling days and bad ones and the distribution you get isn't always perfect nor is it always consistent.

Obama is doing better with older folks so an older sample should not be harming him; he'd be far more harmed if everyone was 40-45;

It seems that Coakley comes off as incredibly arrogant; she thought she could coast to victory and then, when things started to fall apart she comes out with a bunch of desparate ads. I'm a Dem but am not happy with the tone of some of her ads, especially the hospital one. It's way over the top. The theme should have been that Brown will oppose Obama's agenda consistently, and it should have emphasized NOT health care, but the other positive (from most Dem's POV) parts of it relating to regulating Wall Street, Climate, Energy...etc). Obama did this in his speech; he didn't spend much time on Health Care; he talked about the bigger picture.

Well....too late to change tactics; but just look at how Coakley's negatives have shot up...far faster than Brown's (they are up too, btw)



All I can say is nothing is over until Tusday night or Wednesday morning. 100 polls could say brown or coakley is leading doesn't mean that it is the case. Many times these polls have been off even when they were all trending in the same direction. Polls have gotten results wrong in practicallty every election. They do what many people do make assumption before they do there polling.So right they are assuming that the turnout factor favor's brown so they factor that into their polling. Do they know for sure it favors brown. No, they don't but, they all are assuming that the enthusiasm factor is in his favor. They may be right but I'm not so quick to give them since they have been wrong before.



"PP is not going to bend over backwards to show a big enough Brown margin to possibly demoralize the Dem base, volunteers, etc. It's a DEM pollster."

I don't know, PPP has shown bad results for dems basically since the 2008 election was over. And then I don't know how many people pay close attention to polls. Certainly the general public and even the voting public doesn't pay as much attention as we do.



I would want to comment on all these polls. However, I wish to see the polls result from Rasmussen. Anyways, I still think Coakley will squeak a slim win.


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