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MA: Brown 52 Coakley 42 (PajamasMedia 1/17)


Pajamas Media (R) by CrossTarget (R)
1/17/10; 574 likely voters, 4.1% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Pajamas Media post )

Massachusetts

2010 Senate
52% Brown, 42% Coakley (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brown: 60 / 32
Coakley: 40 / 54

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

I am very disappointed and ashamed at Pollster that they are even including this company in their polling results.

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polls_apart:

Hmmmm. Pajamas last result was a 15 point lead for Brown. Trend to Coakley? Or did someone at Pajamasmedia decide to push the numbers in the direction of what appears to be the expected result (a Brown win in the single digits)?

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polls_apart:

Hmmmm. Pajamas last result was a 15 point lead for Brown. Trend to Coakley? Or did someone at Pajamasmedia decide to push the numbers in the direction of what appears to be the expected result (a Brown win in the single digits)?

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tjampel:

Well....as long as we're comparing apples with apples the margin has shrunk by 5% in a few days. I accept that Brown is up; what's important (and the only way for Coakley to win at this late date) is for Brown to have peaked and be headed back down over the past few days AND for Obama to have energized the base, AND for the Dem GOTV operation to be incredibly good.

Neither component, by itself, is going to be enough to overcome Brown's clear narrow (at least) lead at this point, particularly given the differential in enthusiasm level (pre-Obama, at least) and in the small undecided component

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LordMike:

Rasmussen's web site has crashed with the posting of their latest poll, presumably. Anyone have ny info?

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LordMike:

DKos R2K poll out.. tie... 48/48... this is the only live interview poll done since the last R2k poll on Thursday.

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TR in VA:

as Nate over at fivethittyeight has said the Pajama media Poll is BS...it was whenthe lead showed 15 points and this new poll is STILL BS

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Saj102:

No new Ras poll and DKos does say it is tied. Clearly Brown has taken a lead and Coakley continues to choke. I suspect that the most likely than not outcome is a Brown win but with GOTV it could be something that does not get resolved tomorrow...I do see litigation, which could take months to resolve. I really thought that it would end up Coakley but 6. But she is just not a good candidate and the health care fight is motivating tea baggers and independents in the same direction although not a likely long term coalition in Mass. This as thrown this into a toss up.

OK, so what happens from here. I think that the Dems know that health care has to pass for Dems to have any chance in November. I see a very stripped bill coming out that will hard for Reps not to support. Like an insurance bill of rights. Not good enough to reduce anyone's out (read my) premimums but something that includes the right to provide insurance across state lines, end to lifetime caps, end to discrimination against pre-existing conditions, etc. I see a bill that requires to the establishment of a bipartisan commissions to cut Medicare cost (read fraud) I do not see the Republican opposing that out of hand. I see then a slow down on the question of access but something pointing to this year with republican involvement.. I am not sure, but can the bills be broken up or does conference need to introduce one bill? I am lawyer but the rules of the Congress vex me.

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Saj102:

By the way, this poll is a joke. I take Nate Silver's comments as insightful here.

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TR in VA:

Research 2000 is TURD pollster. I never thought their close association with Dailykos would bias their polling like this.

They have on their home web page a strongly worded statement about what they THINK rush said with regard to HAITI.

that is their right... but Rush didnt say that.

why would a unbiased Polling group have a statement like that on their front page
Dont get me wrong Rush is PIG most of the time but their bias is now revaled for all.

Imagine if zogby gallup or Rasmussen had a statement calling on say Obama or Ried to stop being a socialist... ( those guys are not socialists ... just using that as an example)

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LordMike:

Saj,

The GOP will not support ANYTHING related to health care, even if it has 95% approval from teh public. They won't support any bill, period, even if it's to rename a post office. So, forget the bipartisanship dreams.

The house will have to eat the Senate bill and fix some of the problematic stuff (like the tax method) via reconciliation. There's no other way, unless Martha somehow manages to get into a recount situation....

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Saj102:

LordMike:

I understand the frustration but I think that passing the Senate bill in the House seems unlikely. That would require the the ultra-liberals to accept reality that getting 92 to 94% of the uninsured insured is better than no bill at all. I see the notes on Politico and The Hill that say that they are unlikely to eat the Senate bill. I saw on Politico an item that the FireLakeDog ultra-liberals group still going after the President even with the Mass Meltdown. Let's be clear, this President is a moderate to liberal incrementalist and will go back there as fast as he can. I think he needs to stare down the ultra left and tell them enough...pragmatic leadership over the next three years will get him reelected along with the Democratic majority. Anything else is disaster.

Now, I still wonder f the bill can be broken down into bite size pieces that the public can understand. Can the conference committee break them into numerious votes without starting over? That will be the way to bring the people back to reform. I also think that going back is not an option for the reason that LordMike suggests. However, stipping the bill down on this round to include those 80 percent that all can agree on will put some preassure on the opposition to get back and negotiate.

However, as I d

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Saj102:

TR in VA:
I agree that it is a bit unseemly to use a poll commissioned by it to GOTV. However, I do think R2000 is a Turd. Is it any worse than ARG that shows it within three? Or PPP that shows it at 5? Those guys have no success at any special election polling...remember Congressman Hoffman... oh wait minute. Anyway, I am starting to feel like no one is going to walk away with this. But, regardless, it is going to be written as a rebuke of the President, which is would be. I think we need HCR so I am wondering what the next step is? I had an idea just now, is to slow it down and open the conference up tot he republicans. Given then a seat at the table and then give them the opportunity to offer up there bill. Maybe they have good idea to maybe not. If they come with nothing, then we can always pass the Senate bill regardless. If we get Snowe on board we have a enough to be over filler buster. I would say the President comes back witha humble speech that says he hears the complaints and will act as any president should but would say going back is not an option. Open the conference up and fix what we have to get a bill thru. I suspect that this will not happen because it takes a partner, which we do not have now.

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Stillow:

You Dems are still missing what is happening. People we are in the midst of the biggest political upset in our lifetimes. One year ago this president won a hsitoric election. The Dems are o nthe cusp of passing HCR (though nobody wants it) and this seat was held by TK. A republican is rpobably going to win this seat....if liberals really beleived that a bad bill was better than no bill, then Mass liberals would be jumping out windows to go vote for Coakley.

Its the oppositte. We are witnessing what i think is the first step to the Dems becoming a minority party for the next 15 years. If they cannot hold TK's seat, in the bluest of states in the midst of there so called signature issue on the line.....then tis over for Dems.

Brown is ahead for one reason and one reason only, he has vowed to be the single vote needed to block this horrible HCR bill from passing.

The Democrats have totally screwed themselves.....The GOp in its wildest dreams could not have screwed themselves as bad as the Dems have this past year. The people are speaking out. VA and NJ should have been a wake up call to Dems about there sleezy tactics and pushing thru legislation nobody wants.....your about to lose your signature seat.

2010 is going to be worse for Dems than 94 and worse than anyone expects right now. v The writing is o nthe wall...its bad for Dems, very very bad.

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Saj102:

Stillow:

Wow...let the hyperbole start huh. Ok, we know where you stand because it is predictable.

I want to see what are the next steps regardless of a loss or win. Put away the kool aid and let's get a solution for the 40M uninsured in the country. What plan is the best plan? Do you have one? Put it out there and let's discusss. Otherwise, I live in the real world where no bill is not an option for the majority party.

Ok, so go back to my point. Let's assume that people want some HCR. The question is what bill do they want. The Democrats agree that passing no bill is not an option. I think that most likely option is that we pass a insurance bill of rights that include protections against lifetime caps and discrimination against pre-existing conditions? Maybe in include some form of increase competition eliminating bars against selling insurance across state lines. Do you support that? Would the American people? With the later, I think yes. With the former, who knows as it might mean actually getting something done

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Stillow:

you Dems just never get it. People are just not as stupid as you need them to be in order to push your hard left agenda.

Kiss your majoirties goodbye. You were warned already by NJ and VA and you decided to keep pushing...now your probably going to lose Mass....2010 is going to be old fashioned beat down of the democratic establishment.

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Saj102:

Stillow:

No answers to anything I have said just kool aid musing and hope that the Democratic majority is over. What is the left wing agenda? Getting 30 to 40 million people health care? Really? Okay, Let's say that Obama shows humility (which he has done before) and says okay lets start over. I ask you again, what will the Republicans brings to the table? What is the plan? How do we control costs of premiums and reduce the impact to the budget from Medicare? At some point the Republicans will have to work with this President because his terms is 4 years and by the way are the minority party in Congress. What is YOUR plan?

I will admit that the President overloaded the system with all he tried to accomplish but again when the dust settles, what is your plan????

Kool aid drinkers on both side disgust me because no one wants to solve the problem ... just toss out invectives. This is important here because continued Republican obstruction is not a winning formula. I also wonder when the president get Paygo passed this week and pushing for budget reform in the STOU where will the Republican continued obstruction get them.

See Kool Aid drinkers only celebrate the moment, and patriots dust them selves off and look to fix the problem. You are a good kool aid drinker but are you a patriot?

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