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MA: Brown 54 Coakley 39 (PajamasMedia 1/14)

Topics: poll

Pajamas Media (R) by CrossTarget (R)
1/14/10; 946 likely voters, 3.2% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Pajamas Media post )

Massachusetts

2010 Senate
54% Brown, 39% Coakley (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Brown: 61 / 28
Coakley: 39 / 51

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

Oh Cum on....Cut the crap with this poll.

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Stillow:

LOL.....I tend to agree. Brown by 15...hahahah, its nice to wish that were true. If that happened, the Dem party would disolve itself tomorrow.

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James Debate:

The day pollster recognises Pajamas Media as a legit polling firm is the day I lose all respect for this website.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/01/one-massachusetts-poll-that-democrats.html

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Farleftandproud:

Boston Globe......Pleeeeease do a new poll today.

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Farleftandproud:

Please pollster, remove these guys. This is absurd to even give them credit as a legitimate poll.

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Farleftandproud:

If Mason/Dixon comes out with poll results like this, I'll swallow it like a man, but these guys are clearly a tabloid pollster.

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Stillow:

I like that pollster posts it so just we know its there. I think we all agree its a clear outlier, but its still worth knowing its there and seeing the data.

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Stillow:

For what its worth, I saw a Brown spokesman on TV last night saying there internal polling shows them leading some what comfortably. Take htat with a grai nof salt of course, but its still worth mentioning.

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CUWriter:

Brown could get 54% on election day, but I really doubt he's there right now and I REALLY doubt Coakley is at 39%. I think Suffolk is probably on the mark right now. The margin is probably Brown by 3-5 if the election was today, but a holiday weekend can be a lifetime in politics.

This makes for a good headline, but it's a false one. Of course, if it were true, I'd laugh with glee as the entire Dem party completely self-destructed. But it's not accurate.

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Stillow:

A good tool for us to use on who will probably win is if O goes ther this weekend to campaign for Coakley. If O does not go, that means Dem internal polling does not look good for them and they will not want Obama to suffer antoher embarrassment like he did in NJ. If O does go to Mass this weekend then Dem internal polling looks good and O will want to go so he can claim credit for saving the race for the Dems.


Right now I do not think he will go and that should send a major red flag to Dems that WH internal polling shows bad news for Coakley.

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DairyStateG:

Outlier. But it will be fun watching Democrats pop blood vessels over it.

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Farleftandproud:

The good news about Brown prevailing to a progressive is maybe it will get the House and senate Democrats overtime to pass healthcare reform. We started it, and it is the toughest bridge to cross in American life, is achieving affordable healthcare. In the end, I believe doing something about healthcare will be percieved as positive, and the people who wanted to do nothing, will be regarded in the end as nothings and worthless 30 years down the road.

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Farleftandproud:

Popping blood vessels is a correct analogy

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TweedleDum:

Haha, the headline on Pajamas media today was this:

The Islamist Infiltration: Inside Our Government. Armed With Our Secrets

I'm gonna go ahead and disregard this poll...

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jim:

I think Stillow is correct to cite the Brown campaign's comment on their internals. The Obama trip is BOUND to be about internals. Coakley's must be scary. Otherwise the President would never go.

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Field Marshal:

Stillow,

I would venture to say it would be just the reverse- that Obama will only go if Coakleys internals have her down. My rationale is because a loss of the seat to the Reps essentially ends his health care reform bill. Thus, the president has to go to save his agenda.

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jim:

I agree completely with der herr Feldmarschall:
if Coakley's internals showed her ahead, Obama would never go. I bet her internals show her losing by 5-7 points. If Obama were not to go, he would be blamed for her defeat. Now that he is going, if she loses he will be seen as ineffectual. A real lose/lose sitch for the Prez.

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Thaddeus:

Anyone know if Brown wins, when he'd be seated? barring a repeat of MN....I don't wish that on anyone.

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Stillow:

You guys might be right. I guess you can look at it either way. Obama was embarrassed in NJ for stumping for Corzine, but couldn't push him over. It would look bad if the same thing happens in Mass.

I think this coming Tuesday is the real vote on wheather this bogus HCR bill passes. If Brown wins, HCR will die. So I guess it makes sense that Obama would go down to Mass in a last ditch effort to salvage what is by all account sa poorly run race by Coakley who thought she would sail to victory.

I'm actually feeling optimisitc that Brown can win this. Rass and PPP polls later on will show us a bunch. The trend line is deifnatley in Brown's favor, if that continued, its lights out for coakley.

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bonncaruso:

This poll is a piece of right wing hack work, nothing more. Trash it.

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Farleftandproud:

Brown if he wins will not have an easy time in Mass. Unless he ends up being more moderate than he comes across now and is the seat to try to defeat healthcare, he'll have rioters and protesters, and will be the subject of wrath. I bet his staff wouldn't be able to answer their phone they would get so many angry calls. He would hate his job because he would never get any peace, if he defeats historic legislation.

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Stillow:

fyi for anyone who is intrested, some of mydopy conservative blogger freinds tell me that rasmussen started his final poll on this race and that his early numbers are showing brown up by 6.............dunno if that strue or not, just what i am hearing.

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mrut:

If Brown wins, the healthcare reform bill will have to be passed in the House in the exact form that it passed the Senate, without any changes, so that it can go straight to the President without passing the Senate in revised form.

So if you like the bill as it emerged from the Senate before Christmas, that's what you'll get with a Brown victory. It won't kill the bill; no one can afford that.

But Brown won't start riots if he wins; people aren't engaged in his politics enough to care right now. He may have a tough time getting re-elected, but that's not a given.

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MikeyA:

First off, the House won't pass the Senate bill. It doesn't have the language that would pass the muster to keep those 4 votes. 4 votes is all the opponents need to get. In the house that's a drop in the bucket and too much for the whips.

Secondly, Dems should be worried about the "Brown effect". And by that I mean most of the GOP comers for President we've seen and are pretty polarizing. Romney, Palin, Gingrich all of them independents have made their mind up on. Someone like Brown changes the rules of the game.

The more I see of this race the more I become convinced of a Brown victory. Much of it due to Coakley resting on her laurels but regardless that won't be the headline the day after. Suddenly Brown has momentum. He would serve only 2 years in the Senate which is barely enough votes to solidify your position on hot issues.

My meaning. Dems need quit thinking about HCR as it applies to this race or they may suddenly create the 2012 GOP nominee for President who has high likeability, can win in tough districts, and who can get broad indy support.

Granted this is still far reach on my part but I've been saying for a long time the only thing the GOP has really been lacking has been a strong leader. The Dems may be giving them one.

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LordMike:

There is another option, which is that the house can pass the Senate bill, and then make some changes afterwards in an education reconciliation bill that is sitting around waiting to be passed by simple majority. That is probably the most likely scenario at this point.

Who knows, Olympia Snowe may come around... since she supposedly cares so much about health care reform, and all of her concerns have been addressed... I don't think she cares as much as she's put on...

Who could imagine that having 59% of the Senate would stymie you from doing anything. Unbelieveable! This country is ungovernable!

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LordMike:

Why is Rasmussen polling on a Friday? Terrible day to poll..

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jim:

mrut:

I was stunned by your 6:09 PM post. It had never occurred to me that the House could "simply" pass the Senate bill without need for any further action. Of course that's exactly true.

So why is Barney Frank running around like Chicken Little saying health care is dead if Brown wins? To scare people like me who don't know as much as you do? Probably.

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jim:

or maybe it's because Pelosi would not be able to put together a majority for the Senate bill. There are a lot of angry Dems in the House.

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Farleftandproud:

This Country is indeed ungovernable, and if the opposition to Obama started to act like grownups instead of adolescents and the Democrats also can react like adolescents. I think we are headed to a state of anarchy. Not once has the GOP tried to be bipartisan and health care reform in America freaks everyone out; trying to cut costs and not deny people of pre-exisitng conditions has all been forgotten and all we have now is campaign money being wasted and nothing getting done.

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Stillow:

Farleftandproud

Memory loss? Did you not see how the Dems acted during Bush's 8 years? They did nothing but attack...personally degrade and do everything possible to bring down his presidency. Politics is a dirty game on both sides, its been that way since 1776....stop whining and get over it.

jim

The House would not have the votes to pass the Senate version without major changes....and the question now is will the changes they make and this Mass election be enough to stop people like Nelson and bayh from supporting it.

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LordMike:

"Did you not see how the Dems acted during Bush's 8 years? They did nothing but attack..."

Oh, please... I guess that's why Bush got almost every major initiative passed under his reign with Democratic support. The only one he didn't get bipartisan support was for dismantling social security. He could always count on Bill Nelson at least to help him out. They were good friends. And Bayh and Conrad, et al. were all ready to play along...

The changes made are all with the OK of Nelson, and Bayh is actually a strong supporter of the bill... he pulled it back from the brink several times...

It's irrelevant... if Scott Brown wins, and he probably will, the only bill that's going back to the Senate is one through reconciliation... most likely to modify the Senate bill passed by the house...

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Stillow:

I am not sure they will use reconciliation. If they do, then it cahnges the entire working of the senate moving fwd...and when the GOP get 51 votes back in the future it would make the repeal much easier...and since more and more people are talking about a gop takeover of at least the house this year....that would set a bad mood. I am not sure that even reid is that low a person. There's a reason the founders put the 60 vote thing into effect.

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Stillow:

Oh and I promise you bayh, nelson and tons of house dems are watching thsi race in mass. Cus if TK's seat goes red so many dems will be scared out of there mind. Cus if mass can go red, then every dem in every senate race is vulnerable. bayh would deifnatley be out.You could see a 10+seat senate pickup for the GOP if brown wins this.

We are witnessing what is the biggest political upset in modern american politics. That will speak volumes to every member of congress. The GOP will use HCR as the #1 issue in 2010 and 2012....if it works for Brown in Mass, then it will work everywhere.

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MikeyA:

Stillow, Right now the Republs have a solid 4 seat gain probable 7 seat gain in the Senate. The safe being: NV, ND, DE, CO. Then the lean being: AR, PA, IL.

Jim's comments are telling of the problem Dems have this election season. HCR is clearly a losing issue for them. Yet they seemed compelled to pass ANYTHING for the sake of passing SOMETHING. They are tieing their own noose and whistling while doing it.

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al of arabia:

If Brown wins - still a big IF in my book - the Dems will spin it as another terrible candidate and not a reaction to the Obama progressive agenda. But the inside the beltway types will know exactly what this means and you will see the retirements come fast and furious afterward. Suddenly lots of politicians with Ds after their names deciding to "spend more time with family".

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Publius:

Stillow:

The Founders did not put in a "60 vote thing" and they would be appalled at its existence. Brown would be quite a blow for the Democrats, but you are wrong if you think the Republicans will take over Congress in 2012. Let's see how the R's run against health care for people who don't have it. Can you say "mean"?

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RoBoTech:

Publius says to Stillow:
"but you are wrong if you think the Republicans will take over Congress in 2012. Let's see how the R's run against health care for people who don't have it. Can you say "mean"?

Uh, you REALLY don't think that, right?
Let's reveiw. 86% Of Americans LIKE their Health Care, just the way it is, BETTER than the Obamacare going through Congress now. EVERYONE wants some reform to bring down costs, but the IF the bill increases costs AND reduces coverage for those 86%, then they DON'T support it! And the bill does exactly that! That's no secret.
SO, YOU are saying that the GOP will lose because 14% of uninsured Americans are "mean" over not getting paid for Health Care?
I am sorry, I know I am not a Rocket Scientist, (tho I worked with many for NASA for 18 years), but your math does not compute! IF the GOP loses, it WON'T be because of Health Care. THAT'S the DEM'S to lose.
The GOP has NEVER been invited to the party except to give the Bi-Partisan tag to the DEM'S bill. And THAT didn't work when Snowe and Collins found out they were being used like the other Dem Moderates. Snowe and Collins refuse to be "Kamikazes" for a DEMOCRAT bill. You may not like it, but facts are facts.

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