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MA: Coakley 49 Brown 47 (Rasmussen 1/11)


Rasmussen
1/11/10; 1,000 likely voters, 3% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Massachusetts

2010 Senate
49% Coakley (D), 47% Brown (R), 3% Kennedy (i) (chart)

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 57 / 41
Gov. Patrick: 40 / 59

Favorable / Unfavorable
Scott Brown: 59 / 33
Martha Coakley: 58 / 40

 

Comments
Field Marshal:

BUNK!! OUTLIER!! RAS IS BIASED!! WAHHHH!!

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Williame123:

This is very bad news for the Dems in this election and in Nov.

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LordMike:

So, they polled this while the debate was actually going on? Bad form... no wonder the numbers are so skewed.

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Farleftandproud:

Olympia Snowe, Scott Brown is not. I think if the people had actually taken time to watch the debate and saw how poorly Scott Brown did, they wouldn't have to exactly be a liberal to see he is a weak candidate. The Truth about Scott Brown is coming out in some ads that he supports torture and is more to the right on that than John Mccain, as well as not allowing emergency contraception for rape victims. This guy, I have to wonder if he is even from Mass. He is far to the right of others like Olympia Snowe, Susan Collins, George pataki.

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Farleftandproud:

I just sent out 100 emails to progressive friends, and scared them with this poll. I am making phone calls for 4 hours tonight. Martha, I have met before, like her personally. She is tough but honest. She is somewhat like Hillary but way more likeable.

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Stillow:

I watched much of the debate.....Brown did a very good job...not sure what your talking about. I am not sure Coakly knows what she is doing to be honest with you.

Plus Brown had the best zinger of the night when he said this is not Ted Kennedy's seat or the Democrats seat, it is the peoples seat.

I thought rass would have Coakly up by 6+.....I am starting to become a believer that brown can actually win this thing.

If Brown wins this, this would be one of the biggest political upsets in modern American history. For a republican to win a seat vacated by Ted kennedy in the middle of a HCR battle? A Brown victory would reshape the entire poltical landscape fo this year and severely alter the agenda in Congress.

This is insane what we are witnessing here.

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Saj102:

Field Marshal:
Real mature. Wow, that is real great analysis. BTW, sounding neither inteligent or civil. Further, so far I have not heard anyone make that argument.
Williame123:
Really? Based on one overnight poll? I would think we have a long way to go to make a final determination but I guess snap judgements are par for the course.
I would note to all that RAS has posted his own analysis on the overnight, one day, automated poll (all facts are relevent). He has said that the dynamics of the race is about the same as when he posted a 9% spread. Why? Because Coakley, even using his model, is at about 50%. There are still some undecided in his model but we are not sure where they will break but the amount of break toward Brown would have to be large and not likely even under his analysis. I would also note that some of the closing polls in NJ showed a close race which it was not.
Ok, I know that you all want to play politics and this gives Stillow et al the opportunity to call Obama an evil socialist. Have at it boys.
But FieldMarshal, comments on polling procedures and outliers are relevent. The fact here is that RAS and PPP has no experience polling this state (while the Globe does). I will throw out the self serving Coakley poll as a joke. That leaves the Globe poll. Futher, given I do not see the breakdown in the Dems, Ind, and Rep, it hard to put this overnight poll in context. But let's wait, I suspect that Coakley will win between 6 and 10 percent given the polls I have seen to date.

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Farleftandproud:

Finally she is a candidate who is running some good attack ads about his extreme right wing stands. If this weren't a special election I wouldn't be worried, but I don't think back in August we ever would have thought our own party would have delayed and delayed and delayed health reform. This close election is a wakeup call to Dems to stop acting like a bunch of pussies and take the opponents head on. The GOP plays for blood and the Dems act sometimes more like a kid in the candy store with great ideas, but when reality sets in they can't do shit.

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Farleftandproud:

Rasmussen isn't accurate. I have made calls for this campaign. I have only had 3 out of about 40 people I have talked with who are supporting Brown.

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Saj102:

Stillow:

You say you thought Coakley by +6 percent? Really!? Based on what? Given the margin of error, Coakley could likely be at 6 percent.

BTW, the Kennedy seat line was in all the news reports. I really doudt you watched any of the debate bacuase Boston.com had an analysis and it does not track with anything you said here.

But regardless, taking politics out of it, the RAS poll was done during the debate and is it valid to point that out. Further, we have no break down about how the likely voters (1000 of them) broke down. I am not saying it is not closer than 15 percnet but I cannot make any judgement out of this particular poll.

However, I can say this much, we need to wait longer and have more polling data to draw any conclusions. Especially data after the debate.

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Stillow:

Farleftandproud

You libs just do not get it do you? the fact you guys are even tinkering with HCR is why this election is so close i nthe bluest state i nthe country. If this race is this close in Mass, then 2010 is going to make 94 look like a great year for Dems....This race shoudl be a total blowout by 15+ points....this thing is neck and neck. The Dems have serious electoral problems this year and it sgoing t ocost you big time, more than I think you even know.

Saj102

You talk about maturity and them make a childish comment about calling obama a "evil socialist"...................buy a mirror!

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Field Marshal:

"Real mature. Wow, that is real great analysis. BTW, sounding neither inteligent or civil. Further, so far I have not heard anyone make that argument."

I try. Just beating the wingnuts to the punch. And we saw the first criticism on just the third post. unbelievable.

Brown wont win but just the money he has raised and the money the Dem national party has had to spent to defend the seat of their great icon, has been a great victory for the GOP.

GO BROWN!!

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Saj102:

Stillow:

Wow, your response is confusing. I point out that you have gotten on this board and rather than have rationale discussions on the polls (up or down), you instead heave partisan attacks on Obama and you get your underwear in a bunch. You kool aid drinkers always can dish it out rather than take it. It is really sad.

BTW, I am not evil, socialist, or heaving attacks against anyone.

But regardless, my points are left unargued because they are valid and not just partisan attacks... The RAS polls is at best questionable and you did not watch that debate you said you did. Nor did I by the way but I had the time to review what was debated and watched clips. Let's deal in the truth here.

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Farleftandproud:

THis just can't be right. I worked at a bookstore for a long time in Lexington Mass. I was open with locals who shopped there about politics. I never got in trouble.

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Farleftandproud:

I would rather see health care reform which is a human right in every civilized society get passed, and see Democrats lose in 2010, than I would to see Dems not to have even tried. Medicare had a 25 percent approval in 1965 and now very few seniors would even want to be without it. I think of the big picture and the long term affects, not the typical American reactionary hysteria.

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Saj102:

FieldMarshal -

I think that the poll may be valid but even RAS cautions on how much you can read into the poll. That is my point. An overnight automated poll during a crucial debate is worth questioning. No? Well I think it is.

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Williame123:

Brown can win this seat just as Romney won in MA and Dems win statewide elections in WY and other Rep states. People forget that Repubs controlled the governship in MA from '91 to '07. Brown is like Pataki, Christie etc. He is an old school Northeastern Repub. He is not a conservative.

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LordMike:

Well, let's hope that the Globe has another poll in the field right now...

Supposedly, top dems are pretty nervous at the moment. Of course, the top number is all that matters, no matter what the GOP says... and she still is staying around 50.

I certainly hope that Kennedy made his peace with God, 'cos it looks like we are going to need some divine intervention. Brown is a great charlatan... pretending he's not a Republican when he really is a hard core teabagger... lies about working with Obama, when he certainly won't... great salesman, he is, definitely.

Of course, this is Rasmussen, so everything should be taken with a grain of salt. If he follows his pattern, he'll poll again on Monday, and that will probably be the more accurate final result.

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Field Marshal:

So we have Williame123 who says at 7.49pm that Brown is an "old school NE Repub." and he is not conservative.

Then, at 7.52pm, a mere 3 min later, we have LordMike saying Brown is a hardcore teabagger. Libs are too funny.

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Farleftandproud:

Brown is not like Pataki or even Christie at all. I don't think Pataki would have broken with John Mccain on the issue of Torture. It has been banned in about 40 countries, yet not in the US. Brown is not a libertarian; he is not a moderate, he is a Dan Quayle style whore of the Modern GOP of Palin, Gingrich and Mitch Mcconnell.

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Stillow:

FM - trust me they are nervus. Why do you think the wingnuts like Saj102 are on here right now spatting there stupidity all over the place? Notice how he personally attacks me rather than engage the topic? We should take bets on how long it will be before he labels me a racist...............

Saj102

youtube, you can watch it on you tube as I did throughout the day.....as a lib I know you can read minds, but your shirt is now stained with koolaid.

Both PPP and Rass have this race a dead heat. rass nailed NJ, his last poll has Christie by 3 when he won by 4....and I recall the loony lefties on this site, people like Saj102 were doignt he same thing they are doing now. yapping about how rass is absurd, this race is a win for the D's.....blah blah blah....you lefties never change.

Brown will have heavy turnout in his favor, if Coakly's turnout is depressed even a little this could end up a brown win....still unlikely, but it is not defiantley in the realm of possibility. Dem leaders are certianly nervous.

Like I said, you know the left is scared cus the loony libs like Saj102 are going totally nuts right now trying to explain this race away......this race should be a totally abusrd blowout and its neck and neck. A win or a strong showing by Brown will have major implications on the left wing agenda for the rest of this year....and this November is going to be really nasty to the Dems.

Saj102

I will gladly donate $100 to the coackly campaign and post a copy of the recept here on this site as proof if you can cite in which thread i called Obama an "evil socialist".......or is that jus tmore of the kooky left wing nonsense you seem to enjoy spewing?

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Field Marshal:

Breaking news is the Harold Ford Jr is going to challenge Kristen Gillibrand.

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/12/nyregion/12ford.html?ref=politics

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Stillow:

Farleftandproud

A modern day whore....all your name calling, left wing slurs, etc are failing. A virtually unknown guy named brown is taking o nthe Democratic machine in the most Democratic state in the nation.....and he is running a dead heat for a seat held by the liberal icon ted kennedy.

You guys can hurl allthe perosnal attacks you ant to make you feel better...you can try and explain away whats happening all you want..I watched you ugys do this exact same thing with Christie in NJ.....then I watched you all pick your jaws up off the ground when he won.

The fact Brown is even competitive in this seat says volumes about where the Dem party is headed.

Now, this is the part where you call me a racist, a bigot and accuse me of wanting to kill old people thru my lack of support for the current HCR.

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Field Marshal:

Agreed Stillow. Why else is Farleft phone banking when he lives in Vermont?

Did you see Brown raise $1 million yesterday alone?

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LordMike:

He's good... very good:

http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/01/coakley_campaig_1.html

Using every trick in the right wing playbook of years gone by. The GOP hasn't tried the "moderate" track in a long time, but that's how they use to win elections a long time ago, with gimmicks like that...

If this were Ohio, he'd be up by 10 at least... Coakley's still around that magical 50% mark... She needs dems to come out. The attack ad was good, but too intense. All you needed to to was remind everyone that he's a republican and will conspire to make sure Obama and the country fails.

She really is a horrible candidate... horrible... Not as bad as Creigh Deeds, but pretty bad.

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Stillow:

Heheheh, thats the ad where they spelled Mass wrong....! Gotta love taht campaign manager.

I've noticed a trend with you lefties....in each race that you now do poorly on, its not because people are rejecting your liberal loonytoon ways, its because the candidate is bad. Well, keep that up, its a winning strategy for sure!

Coakley should still win this race....any other state it might not be so, but luck would have it that you just don't get more blue than mass.

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Stillow:

Heheheh, just wanna get one more laugh in for the night...I can't belive you actually posted the ad where you crazy libs spelled mass wrong.....hheheheheh, its one thing to be prone to typos like myself, its another thing to release a million dollar ad camapaign and spell your own state wrong!!!!!!!!!!

Love ya libs!

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LordMike:

I don't know Stillow, I'm feeling an upset...

Coakley is an OK candidate who pulled a Hillary (rested on her laurels early). Hopefully, she can continue the Hillary tradition by revving it up late.

Scott Brown is very good... he's clever, unique, good looking, and can frame everything in a way that makes him look good, and he makes Mass voters forget that he's a hard core republican.... He's kindof like your Obama in 2008! Hell, even I almost believe that he wants to "help Obama" and "work with the Dems" (yeah, right!). He's very good. He's the second coming of Romney for that state. And Romney, BTW, won against a female candidate. I don't think that's a coincidence. With the divergence of the automated polls and live person polls, there may be some sexism at play here. I don't like calling that card, but are people lying to the live person pollsters?

BTW, if Mass voters are rejecting "liberal ways", why does Scott Brown refuse to identify himself as a Republican? That's why he's winning...

I wish I could share your optimism about the race. I think that Coakley just keeps stepping in it, and she can't get out of the quicksand. Brown is very good. Something needs to change, soon.

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Farleftandproud:

This weekend can be a showdown in Boston. What about Bill Clinton and Barack Obama campaigning for Coakley, and perhaps Brown can invite Joe Lieberman up to help him out. Thats a campaign strategy for you.

I have noticed Brown has only asked Mitt Romney and a couple of Regional moderate republicans to help out. I dare him to invite Sarah Palin this weekend, or what about newt Gingrich?

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Farleftandproud:

As for the person who said that left wingers have been saying it is because weak candidates that we lost, it was true with Deeds in VA. He really was not well known and a terrible campaigner and Corzine was not popular for the last 2 years of his term. If he had been up for re-election in 2008 I think he would have just barely won. The left wing hysteria in Mass. will be a wake up call this weekend to insure that there will be strong enough turnout a week from tuesday so Coakley can win.

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Saj102:

Stillow:

I think you are being dishonest here and a defensive.

First, I never said you called Obama specifically a evil socialist but rather you and your compatriots use the comments section not to comment on the polls (good or bad) but rather to attack the other sides (liberal, democrats, etc). The site is full of these comments from you and you have been called out before so do not act hurt now, i.e., put your big boy pants on. A perfect example if calling me a kooky lib. You are as bad as any kooky liberal kool aid drinker.

As for the debate. I am big enough to just concede this point. For my perspective, it was clear from your first comments about the debate that you had not watched it. Or you let your partisan feeling color your commentary because it did not square with the facts. But hey, I should let that go and so I apologize.

Lastly, on the Ras and PPP polls. First, the PPP poll was garbage. As I remember it, it had Brown leading among women. I do not think anyway thought that squared with the facts down in Mass. Second. PPP has not experience polling in Mass and that is a valid reason to take it with a grain of salt.

Now about Ras, I think Scott is a good pollster so lets make that clear now. But I have a problem with this overnight result because it does not correct for the noise that happen in polls and was done during the debate. That is why Gallup and Rass use three day results to measure the President's approval. It corrects the noise. Also, there is no way to evaluate the poll with out the cross tabs as I do not know who that polled and the mix polled. So, as said above, we need more data to make a determination.


Is the race two points or likely 7-8? I take little stock in the all the hand wringing coming out of Coakley as I think the astute answer here is that they are trying to raise money and assure turnout. Why would anyone allow the press to to attend private calls where they say they are in trouble? No one does that unless the point is to scare out the masses tp make sure that there people come to the polls.. Now, watch for the following: (1) Obama to cut an ad; (2) increase positive ads going into the last week; and (3) a 7 point victory. Taking the Globe results and cutting it in half to allow for Rep push. We should see another Globe poll soon and will better gage this.

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Louis:

I said Coakley by 10 to 14 points and I have yet to see anything that would change my mind. I had Christie by 2 so it is not just playing up the Democrats. Unless there is a blizzard on election
day this won;t be close.
If I'm wrong well life happens. We will see soon enough.
I also expect Rasmussen to release one more poll before the election with Coakley suddenly pulling away again. Rasmussen will then claim how accurate his polls are by touting the final numbers and ignoring the previous polls.

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Stillow:

Saj102

I have no idea what you are talking about or what your problem is. This is a BLOG site. Polls are posted and lefties and righties post comments rleating to each thread. we all give our opinions on why we think or do not think a poll result is accurate and we all elaborate on the why's. So whats your point? I am but one of maybe 3 or 4 conservatives who post on this site. the rest are all libs who bombard this site each day with opinion, attacks, etc....I simply provide a contrasting point of view.

If Blumenthal has a problem with anything that goes on on this site, he can delete a user at any time. this is a discussion site meant for everyone to debate and discuss.

I watched "most" of the debate....as I do with all high profile debates. I will send a youtube link at the end just for you in case you want to view it. Frankly I don't give a hoot what you belive or do not beleive....and your attempts to silence opposing views by whining and complaining about my posts won't work.

I don't care if all day long you slam me, but you won't shut me up. Like everyone else here I enjoy the blogging expereince, I enjoy taking jabs at the left wing and enjoy everyones take on various polls and topics.

So keep whining if you want about my posts....I have stated an opinion that Brown does have momentum, Coakley is indeed in trouble, top Dems are very nervous....and this race is by no means a shoe in for Coakley. It is also my opinion that Coakley will probably win due to the blueness of Mass, but the fact of its closeness does spell trouble for Dems.

So bitch and moan all you want, if you want a site where everyone drinks the same kool aid, perhaps you would enjoy Kos more. If Mark wants an all liberal love fest on this site he can remove any and all conservative users....until then I will post my comments and my opinion.

once again though I see the tolerante and diverse left wants to silence opposing voices. Typical.

Here is clip 1 of the debate so you can actually watch it before coming back to tell me what I did or did not do.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F50cJd2jX5U

Can you tell me tomorrow's lottery # too?

Oh and when I said i watched much of the debate and mentioned the zinger, that was true...brown delivered the best zinger of the night, no question about that.

So I suggest you either man up and engage in the debate and try to debunk the opposing argument rather than silence it or just head over to a more freindly site like Kos.....or request Mark to convert this into an all liberal love fest......

Okie dokie?

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Stillow:

Heheh, buddy of mine sent this from redstate....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S518s32jjic&feature=player_embedded

Coakley buying demonstrators, who actually support Brown....funny!!

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Stillow:

Louis

You honestly think 10-14? wow.

if a lib were holding a gun to my head, wait thats not right...if a lib were holding a tax increase to my head (printed with enviromentally safe ink using a solar powered printer on recycled paper of course) and made m call it right this moment...I'd say coakley by 3-5.

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Williame123:

Field Marshal

Actually it is you conservatives who are funny. As an independent liberal, I am able read data and historical trends and draw sensible conclusions. You cons on here see everything through partisan lenses. When was the last time a conservative won Gov or Sen in MA?

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Farleftandproud:

Harold Ford will be toast in NY state. I don't understand why he would want to take on Gillibrand considering Guilliani and probably Pataki aren't running. I almost thought it was a mistake when I heard he was running. It would be like me as a Vermonter trying to run for Senate in Texas. I would just look ridiculous and out of place.

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Field Marshal:

Williame123:

Uhhh, you're reading ability about data and historical trends are lacking. Mitt Romney was the Governor from 2003-2007.

Its funny that you say conservatives see things through a partisan lens. Truly funny.

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Field Marshal:

"once again though I see the tolerante and diverse left wants to silence opposing voices. Typical."

This is so they don't have to actually use fact, logic, and critical thinking. If its all kool-aid drinking wingnuts on the site, it makes it much easier for people like Saj and Louis.

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Williame123:

Field Marshal

Uhhh, your reading ability about data and historical trends are lacking. When Mitt Romney
ran for Gov, he did so as a moderate to lib Repub.

In fact he put in place HCR similar to the Senate bill. The reason Mitt has long been suspected of been a fraud by many conservative activists is because of his record in MA. Remember when many cons accused him of been a flip-flopper in the '08 primaries? The Mitt running for Pres is not the same as the Mitt who ran for Gov OR Sen in MA.

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Field Marshal:

Yes, he did. And he was obviously wrong about it since MassCare is nearly bankrupt and costs increased significantly since it was instituted. Great mandate for Obamacare!

In addition, the Mass. Governor seat was in Republican hands for 16 consecutive years from 1991-2007. Whats your excuse for prior Reps?

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Farleftandproud:

Being a New Englander, electing GOP governors has been a tradition as long as I can remember; Douglas in VT, Romney in Mass, Jodi Rell in CT, but the voters are no fools, they want their state tax cuts, but when it comes to sending a person to Washington, they want someone more like Ted Kennedy or John Kerry. Snowe and Collins are exceptional being able to capture 24 percent of Democratic votes. Scott Brown, however is already planning to be an obstructionist. Snowe and Collins, never said they would oppose health reform, they just haven't exactly supported the existing plan. Brown on the other hand is acting as though he was hired by Palin and Gingrich himself to clearly be an obstructionist. That is just not right.

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Farleftandproud:

Just a quick question. Did anyone actually notice the number of Dems Vs Republicans and Independents who were polled by Rasmussen? I noticed that the local Democratic poll may have a bias to it, but 48-26 (Democrat Vs Republican) is actually still a conservative estimate in Mass. I am not sure if Rasmussen knows that the gap between Dems and Republicans is far greater than states like Ohio or NJ. Did anyone actually see how many Dems, Inds and Gopers were actually interviewed?

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Farleftandproud:

It is still too early to judge the 2010 election regardless of the outcome. I have confidence that the unemployment figures will be down to 8.5 or better by next Oct. Jan, and Feb are terrible times to look for a job, but I expect the Democrats will work very hard to make things change.

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Williame123:

I have no excuse for prior Rep Govs in MA because I don't need one. In fact I was the one who first pointed out Rep dominance in the MA gov mansion in this thread.

My point WAS and still IS that those Govs were all mod to lib Repubs by national standards. Brown is running ads of JFK on taxes, NOT Reagan. There is a reason for that. Christie didn't want Palin campaigning for him and avoided attacking Obama in the general election. I wonder why.

It is as tough for conservatives to win in the NE as it is for libs to win in the South. Brown may or may not win but he is a traditional NE Repub like Romney and his father were.

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Stillow:

Farleftandproud

Like a huge "majoirty" of americans, Brown wants HCR.....but he does not want this joke of a bill coming out of the Senate that "no" one likes.

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Farleftandproud:

I think Stillow Low needs to show me more evidence to prove to me that any other GOP senator other than possibly Snowe or Collins wants healthcare reform. First of all, the Public option was too liberal for Nelson and Lieberman and we watered that down. The other thing is I haven't heard anything from Brown in his debate about reducing costs for more competition in insurance companies. Some Republicans want competition, but few of them have even advocated for regulations on not denying people pre-existing conditions. I would like some proof.

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Farleftandproud:

The joke of the bill isn't what I wanted either. 90 percent of Democrats I have talked with wanted single payer. The plan currently is wattered down and confusing as hell, but is better than no reform at all. It is like building a starter home rather than an estate. The plan can be changed down the road and states can decide what they would like.

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RaleighNC:

Brown will win by 2%...even after certain, targeted precincts will be allowed to remain open late due to "voting machine issues".

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Farleftandproud:

Brown won't win. By the end of the weekend, too many people will wake up and see the seriousness of a GOP senator in Mass.

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ndirish11:

The Democrats should be scared. Republicans are energized and young voters are energized around this republican candidate. If facebook is any indication, when do you see more supporters on a facebook page for a Republican then a Democrat? Facebook was built for college people and the majority of people on facebook now are high schoolers, college kids, and young adults. It really is startling to see that Brown has 37,000 supporters while Martha has just under 9,000. The momentum may not be enough, but the Dems should be worried.

As a Libertarian Republican my views fall very closely in line with the independent candidate, Joe Kennedy. Too bad his name is Joe Kennedy when he isn't the Joe Kennedy. And too bad he called himself the "Tea Party Candidate." While there are a lot of libertarians in the Tea Party, you also get crazy racists who go against everything libertarians believe. My brother has views similar to mine and he lives in Mass. He doens't like Martha for her views on HCR and the economy and he doesn't like Scott for having staunch anti-civil liberties and anti-gay marriage stances. Right now though, he is leaning to Scott Brown.

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