September 5, 2008
By Margie Omero
As we continue to discuss the Palin Effect, more data have emerged. An ABC News poll released today shows that partisanship, as opposed to gender, is a far greater predictor than of attitudes toward Governor Palin.
Across nearly every dimension, Republicans have rallied behind McCain's VP pick, with Democrats and independents more ambivalent. A full 80% of Republicans say the pick makes them more confident in McCain, compared to 59% of Democrats feeling less confident (independents are more divided, 44% more confident, 37% less confident).
And charges that the press have treated Palin unfairly resonate with Republicans more than they resonate with women. More than half (57%) of Republicans say she has been treated unfairly, with less than half as many Democrats (27%) agreeing. The difference between men (55% treated fairly) and women (46%) is smaller, with women more likely to be undecided than men.
When we ask the ultimate question--how does each candidate's VP pick affect one's vote--we see Palin moving the Republican base, but not others. Two-thirds (67%) say Obama's selection of Senator Joe Biden has no difference on their vote, while fewer (55%) say the same about Palin. But Palin elicits more saying they are "less likely" to vote for McCain (19%) than say the Biden pick makes them less likely to vote for Obama (10%).
Further, as the report notes, Palin runs up the score among Republicans and evangelicals (+37, +32 more minus less likely to vote for McCain, respectively). But moderates say Obama's pick of Biden makes them more to vote for Obama (+12 more minus less), with Palin having neither a positive or negative net affect for McCain.
These findings build upon earlier results I wrote about this week. It seems increasingly unlikely that former Hillary Clinton supporters will move to McCain because of Sarah Palin. But during the heat of the Republican convention, the Republican base is indeed energized.
By Margie Omero on September 5, 2008 4:38 PM
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September 3, 2008
By Margie Omero
It's a little too early to tell the full effect of Senator McCain's selection of Governor Palin as his running mate. In particular, Palin's biography has created numerous side dialogues--chiefly among women--about working mothers, teen pregnancy, abstinence-only education and raising children with special needs. Surveys on these topics will take a little time, and some care and nuance.
But until then, we do have good preliminary data about the Palin Effect across gender and party. But bare in mind that the timing of both conventions and the Palin pick announcement (not to mention Labor Day and Hurricane Gustav) make it difficult to identify exactly which bounces are working where.
The Palin Effect has rallied white Republican women; Obama gains with other groups
A Gallup release today demonstrated that compared to an August average, McCain's support post-Palin has increased with white Republican women (+5 change in McCain). There has been no movement with Republican men (+1).
By contrast, Democrats and independents across gender lines move toward Obama post-Palin. This movement has mostly been larger than McCain's movement among Republican women (independent men: +7 Obama; independent women: +5; Democratic men and women: +8 each). In fact, Obama now leads with white independent women (46% Obama, 39% McCain).
Among women, Obama-Biden now have the advantage in "experience"
According to a new EMILY's List Women's Monitor survey of women (conducted 8/31 to 9/1), the Obama-Biden ticket now has the advantage on "experience." In their last Women's Monitor from early August, half (51%) of women said "having the experience, background, and knowledge to be President" described McCain better, compared to 16% saying it described Obama better.
In this current survey, the numbers are now almost reversed. Over half (52%) say the Obama-Biden ticket has more experience, while only 37% say McCain-Palin is more experienced. Not only did the Palin pick negate McCain's experience "argument," as many commented, but it actually completely erased McCain's advantage, among women, in just a few short weeks.
(Disclosure: EMILY's List is an organization helping pro-choice Democratic women. It is also a Momentum Analysis client, but we do not work on Women's Monitor.)
Women do not just use candidate gender to decide who represents them
During the Democratic primaries I noted that Hillary Clinton voters were even more likely to weigh the issues when making their choice. The Women's Monitor results confirm this pattern--gender alone won't move women voters to McCain-Palin. (At least among non-Republicans.)
Majorities of women said Palin's positions on issues such as abortion, education, and stem-cell research made them more unfavorable toward her (56%, 55%, and 52%, respectively). In fact, a majority of women (53%) say Obama-Biden is more in touch with the issues that affect women than is McCain-Palin (35%).
The McCain campaign recently proffered "this campaign is not about issues." Indeed, Palin's speech last Friday attempted to attract Hillary Clinton supporters, offering an identical gender as opposed to a similar platform. These results, however, show that issues do matter to women voters.
By Margie Omero on September 3, 2008 10:09 PM
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August 22, 2008
By Margie Omero
EMILY's List released their Women's Monitor survey this week comparing women across four different age cohorts: Gen Y, Gen X, Baby Boomers, and seniors. While their findings on the Presidential race are interesting and worth reading, I'd like to focus more on attitudes toward the role of women. (Disclosure: EMILY's List is a Momentum Analysis client, but we had nothing to do with this survey.)
Overall, women across age groupings agree on many topics. But the survey finds younger, Gen X or Gen Y women consistently more optimistic than their older counterparts, especially when it comes to changing women's roles. Boomers and senior women are more likely to strongly agree that "sexism is still a serious problem for women in our society today" and "there is still a need for a woman's movement that has a strong political voice in America." They are also more likely to strongly disagree with: "women today have equal opportunities and equal treatment in the workplace."
While hardly anyone uses words such as "satisfied" or "proud" to describe how the country is headed, younger voters are the least pessimistic about the future. And while majorities across age groups disagree with the statement "this is a good time in America's history to be a young person just starting out in life," youngest women disagree with it least often.
However, despite being generally more optimistic, younger women are at the same time the most uncertain about the future. They are not as likely as Boomer women to agree that "because they have so many more options and choices available to them, young women today are better off than their mothers' generation." And when asked to identify what word describes the direction of the country, they are more than twice as likely as older women to say "uncertain," and are far less likely to say "dissatisfied."
Uncertainty could have many causes. First, the study shows younger women less engaged in politics, and less likely to follow the news. Second, the survey also suggests younger women are more concerned than older women about issues affecting them personally, such as pocketbook issues, rising gas prices, issues affecting children, and college affordability. Third, age itself could be a factor, where women with more life experience are less likely to be unsure of the future.
Given younger women's optimism, with uncertainty, it is not surprising that they prefer a candidate who is also optimistic, but provides clarity. Younger women are more interested in a presidential candidate who can provide "hope and optimism," while older women are more likely to crave "safety and security" or both equally. Younger women are also more likely to prefer a candidate with a "vision for the future," and older women are disproportionately more likely to seek a candidate who can "get things done."
Below are some of the responses across age groupings. I calculated net agree/disagree, and a 4-point mean score, where 4 means "strongly agree," and not sure is omitted. Other results, methodology, and some question wording are available here and here.
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|
strng agree |
smwt agree |
smwt disgr |
strng disgr |
mean |
net agree |
net disgr |
|
B/C so many options & choices, yng wmn better off than mothers' generation |
|
Gen Y |
42 |
42 |
10 |
4 |
3.24 |
84 |
14 |
|
Gen X |
46 |
34 |
11 |
5 |
3.26 |
80 |
16 |
|
Boomers |
51 |
30 |
13 |
3 |
3.33 |
81 |
16 |
|
Seniors |
45 |
30 |
9 |
10 |
3.17 |
75 |
19 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
All other things equal, better of more women elected to important offices |
|
Gen Y |
48 |
35 |
11 |
3 |
3.32 |
83 |
14 |
|
Gen X |
42 |
36 |
11 |
5 |
3.22 |
78 |
16 |
|
Boomers |
48 |
29 |
11 |
4 |
3.32 |
77 |
15 |
|
Seniors |
46 |
29 |
10 |
7 |
3.24 |
75 |
17 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sexism is still a serious problem for women |
|
Gen Y |
36 |
41 |
19 |
3 |
3.11 |
77 |
22 |
|
Gen X |
34 |
41 |
15 |
6 |
3.07 |
75 |
21 |
|
Boomers |
46 |
33 |
12 |
5 |
3.25 |
79 |
17 |
|
Seniors |
43 |
29 |
14 |
9 |
3.12 |
72 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Still a need for a women's movement with a strong political voice |
|
Gen Y |
34 |
44 |
14 |
5 |
3.10 |
78 |
19 |
|
Gen X |
36 |
37 |
13 |
7 |
3.10 |
73 |
20 |
|
Boomers |
42 |
28 |
16 |
8 |
3.11 |
70 |
24 |
|
Seniors |
45 |
26 |
14 |
9 |
3.14 |
71 |
23 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Women should stay home w/infants & toddlers, even if means sacrifice |
|
Gen Y |
12 |
28 |
28 |
28 |
2.25 |
40 |
56 |
|
Gen X |
20 |
28 |
26 |
21 |
2.49 |
48 |
47 |
|
Boomers |
23 |
22 |
24 |
20 |
2.54 |
45 |
44 |