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MI: Obama 51, McCain 41 (PPP-9/29-10/1)

Topics: PHome

Public Policy Polling (D)
9/29-10/1/08; 731 LV, 3.6%
Mode: IVR

Michigan
Obama 51, McCain 41
Sen: Levin (D-i) 50, Hoogendyk (R) 32

 

Comments
metsmets:

Not much left for McCain to look for here. It may be too far gone. Better spending his time and money elsewhere.

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Commander_King:

See ya later McStunt!

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ErnieLynch:

Elvis has left the building

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mysticlaker:

The next 4 weeks for Obama:

Florida
NC
Ohio
Indiana
Missouri
Colorado (maybe)
NH (maybe)

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Atomique:

I would add Nevada and Virginia to that list.

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1magine:

In case anyone is having a bad day and needs a laugh -

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/#26982680

A compendium of SP's finest moments.

Of course if the polls swing - be forewarned the video may frighten you.

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Trosen:

This is getting redundant, but this is yet another blue state that the McCain camp was very confident they could turn. The strange thing is, unless they dramatically change their campain plans, it looks they are still actually going after states like IA, MI, PA, MN, and WI. It's slightly mind-boggling.

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carl29:

Oh,oh,oh, some people will not be happy about this. I know one who is it, me :-). The party ID is almost right, 7% advantage to the Dems. In 2004 the Democrats had a 5% advantage in MI, so it sounds quite accurate to put it 2% up for the Dems. compared to 2004.

Take into account that this poll is quite underestimating people 18-29. In 2004 these people were 21% of the electorate; this poll has them at 16%. So, count on more Obama's votes on election day from this group.

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Connor:

Anyone see Nate Silver's (538) expose on RCP's suspicious "methodology"?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/real-credibility-problems.html

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reverendmatt:

I think its time for the Repubs to stage some kind of stunt, maybe they are waiting until after the vp debate to see how that goes, if Palin does poorly tonight then there will be some kind of Rovian event on Friday to dominate the weekend news cycle. These are desperate times for McCain look for some kind of significant sliming or disinformation.

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thoughtful:

This in line with the National polling trend.

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fed:

lol Hannity must be having a great morning looking at the polls

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Commander_King:

Has anyone noticed that Boom is nowhere to be found???

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carl29:

@reverendmatt,

Agree with you. My husband and I have been thinking about the exact same thing since Palin started giving those desastrous interviews. They are going to do something tomorrow to "kidnapped" the news cycle, so Palin doesn't become a bigger than she already is liability.

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jamesia:

I'm betting on a Palin debate "bounce" for McCain, sure. She can't possibly look as bad as we think she will. Biden will probably have a difficult time controlling laughter, which might backfire... heck, I'd probably have trouble controlling laughter.

Either way, Obama will recapture that bounce at the next debate... and anyway, Don't most polls show that the majority of people have made up their minds?

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carl29:

Commander_King,

I think that Boomshak and KinTip must be kind of depressed, and the day is just beginning.

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ErnieLynch:

Saw Boom sneaking out of the RNC and heading over to DNC. Maybe filling out a job application.

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illinoisindie:

Last week when I said on here that NC was going to go Obama…I was pretty much told that it was improbable and yet still here we are with Obama up in the NC polls. While it still may be a push as some of you suggested, NC is looking to solidify Obama’s Virginia position. Whats important here to note is that, some of these states are early voting states. Assuming the spread is 7% through next week and the estimates of 30% of the vote will come in early. Obama is in pretty good shape… Ill be watching those early return statistics. Regardless, I will still be canvassing for Obama in Wisconsin, because I like many of you am excited but cautious and will take nothing for granted.

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KipTin:

Significantly smaller sample then the last PPP poll at beginning of September. I wonder why.

PPP (D) 9/6-7/08 1147 LV
McCain 46 Obama 47 Undecided 7

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fed:

I must disagree, tomorrow's news cycle will be the vote on the bailout and maybe troopergate

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masselo:

republicans know how to win elections but they sure cant govern... i feel bad for them - i really do

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Dave:

Palin is a very good debater. she can lie in the debate and make biden look like an ass when he tries to correct her.

these debates are more about body language than anything else, and so i don't see how she can lose!

biden has to be very careful. i hope he can make it through... but this sort of reminds me of putting up an old lion college law school dean in the same room with the D+ freshman who went to 5 schools and could only manage to pass in journalism... what usually happens when you put those two types together?

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thoughtful:

This in line with the National polling trend.

@Connor

I think both RCP and Politico are GOP leaning fronts I rank them alongside FOX.

In the end says that the free for all (my words) of pollster offers the most neutral on offer as the site includes all the polls even if Boomshak doesn't like it. He does what we can all do accept what we want to and discard what we don't want to.

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Viperlord:

Obama is doing very well, McCain's only hope is some grand stunt. Oh wait, didn't he already try that?

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BLeigh82:

Smaller sample size for sure.

I do get the feeling that Michigan will be pretty hard for McCain to pick off. Minnesota might be a better possibility I'm thinking...and New Hampshire of course.

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Trosen:

Politico is NOT a right-leaning front. I don't know where you get that from.

jamesia is right (on the Plain bounce thing), and I'll get into that later. Interesting I checked McCain's cmpaign stop schedule and it's CO, then MO, then taking the entire weekend ad Monday off??! (prepping for Tuesday's debate I guess) But as I predicted, he now has to scramble to keep red states from going blue. Next is abandoning once "close" blue states.. and God knows what his plan is for the remaining "swing" states.

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PortlandRocks:

Boom said McCain would be statistically tied by SUNDAY ROFL. This must be the strategy... Rasmussen now 7? Seems to be going the wrong direction for Boomfool.

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thoughtful:

@kipTin

Why do you think its a significantly smaller poll? Do you think 730 is too small for MI?

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kerrchdavis:

And ONCE AGAIN, Boomshaks theory (this time that Obama's lead is collapsing) is a PATHETIC FAIL.

How can 1 person be SO wrong SO often?

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angrytoxicologist:

Speaking of, when are we going to get some new NH or CO data? If the Obama camp can nail down NH and CO, they doen't even need the big swingers. That is a sad fact for the McCain camp.

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Trosen:

You won't hear from boom and some of the other more.. "passionate" McCain supporters until tomorrow, unless today's Gallup shows McCain within yesterday's 4 points.

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carl29:

Minnesota for McCain? I can't see how. McCain has never led in 3 MN polls this entire season, out of 28 polls.

This are the only 3 polls where McCain has led, notice the the most recent showing McCain leading is from March:

SurveyUSA 03/14 - 03/16 532 46 47 McCain +1
SurveyUSA 01/20 - 01/21 550 42 49 McCain +7
SurveyUSA 12/13 - 12/15 556 41 50 McCain +9

Those are the only, only, polls that had shown McCain leading in Minessota. See the picture?

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freedomtoast:

Thank God things are turning Obama´s way.

We here on the other side of the Atlantic support Obama I think 80-90%. I just wish there was something I could do to help his campaign.

For me (and I think many non-US) it´s not so much about the issues, we honestly don´t care (much) about US internal politics. However wet we have watched Bush declare not only war on terror, but war on education, science, poor people (not poverty) and now his economics disasters are spreading around worldwide.

For us it´s more like it would be for you if there were an election in Iran or Turkey and on one of the candidates is an Oxford or Cambridge graduate in law/history/economics or whatever, who wears a suit and is articulate and smart. On the other hand there is this radical Imam from some mountain region deep inside the country that wants to spread Sharia law. Although I support religious tolerance, I would not want a radical extremist (of any religion) as president and with his finger on the button.

And Sarah Palin, Oh! Where to begin! What do the republicans have agains smart people?

"OOOH you´re too smart to be president!" WTF!


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KipTin:

Read carefully... I stated "significantly smaller sample then the last PPP poll." I posted the numbers for the comparison:

This poll = 731
Last poll = 1147

Over 400 differential. Over 1/3 smaller sample. And I wondered why the change.

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Hope Reborn:

The McCain dream states are now dark blue and McCain is left to Campaign in DENVER in OCTOBER this afternoon... it's no wonder we know whose winning.

McCain is getting swamped and the Obama strategy is proving ultimately victorious. Had McCain not picked Palin, Montana and Alaska would be up for grabs now too...

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Timdicator:

These polls are too good to be true for Obama. If he's actually getting these kind of numbers, they're soft.

I hope he can shore up the support and I hope he wins in a landslide ... but I'm taking these numbers with a huge grain of salt.

I've lived in NC my entire life except for the summer I spent in Ohio, and I won't believe either one of them is going blue until I see it on Nov. 4.

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kerrchdavis:

Did you guys see the In/Adv poll out today that has Georgia favoring McCain by only 6??

Also, battleground national today has Obama up 5.

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KipTin:

Well... freedomtoast... You mean what do Republicans have against elitist language? You are wrongly equating speaking American/Alaskan vernacular with lack of intelligence.

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AmericaWins2:

McCain will win this in a landslide once Obama is seen for what he is.

America needs the TRUTH

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kerrchdavis:

@America

lol! keep dreaming my backward friend.

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KipTin:

Please... carl29... Why do you feel the need to focus on me? Maybe YOU CAN GET DEPRESSED over polls, but I have never indicated that I get emotional over statistical samples. I am a pragmatist and realist.

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AmericaWins2:

@kerchdavis

Just wait, the truth about his real religon and Ayers, Wright and all his loony friends will come out.

John McCain is a WAR HERO he was for this country!!!

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carl29:

KipTin,

NBC/Mason-Dixon 09/18 - 09/23 had 625 LV and showed Obama and McCain in a tie, my question: Did you have an issue with that sample as well or the issue with the sample only arises when McCain is doing bad in the poll?

These are your comments:

"KipTin:
Again, within sampling error.

Mason Dixon one month ago: Obama 45/McCain 44. Not really a change."

Actually it looks that since there were close enough, the issue for you was "within the margin of error." Now, because it is not close enough, the issue is the sample size. See how consistent your analysis?

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John:

@KipTin

Most likely it will be down to cost. PPP were only running one or two polls per a week, now they are running three. Smaller samples are cheaper.

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AmericaWins2:

*supposed to say tortured for this country

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UpstateProgressive:

It looks like Michigan, where Obama has been working hard, is now out of play. So are MN, WI, and PA, it would appear. I'm guessing NH is safe after the recent pro-Obama shift, though hardly anybody ever polls it.

Now Obama can go on offense and McCain has way too much territory to defend. Two states that Kerry lost, NM and IA, seem to be firmly in Obama's pocket. That means McCain must defend OH, FL, VA, NC, CO, IN, NV, and if he loses any of them (except maybe NV) he's cooked.

It's really not looking good for McCain right now. And as carl29 indicates, most pollsters seem to be significantly underrepresenting the youth vote, even based on 2004 trends. Youth vote should be at historic highs this year. The youth vote plus AA vote at record levels may provide an interesting November surprise for McCain and the media when it is actually counted. Obama's been working hard to prepare that surprise for the past year, but it somehow remains under the radar.

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Mike_in_CA:

@illinoisindie

I too have been arguing to anyone who will listen that Obama is likely to win a lot more surprises than just NC. I can see MO and IN going his way. If he wins nationally by 6-7 points, then he will probably pick up even MORE surprises than just NC, MO and IN. People don't realize that, in the event of a landslide type election, the winner ends up taking MOST of the states. Reagan won 49 states in 1984 with a 10% pop vote win. Just something to keep in mind...

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carl29:

KipTin,

Yeah...it really sounds like you "a pragmatist and realist." At this point no one, not even McCain himself, denies that Obama's numbers have improved. Don't worry we understand your "pragmatism" and "realism."

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carl29:

KipTin,

You really sound hysterical to be honest :-) Typical of women of "certain age."

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Connor:

@KipTin

Is that you, Camille Paglia? This whole intellectualizing of ignorance is very, very 2000. What, you feel like a "nerd" cause you read too many "chapter books"?

Rightwingers just love bimbos and mimbos. God knows their creepy asses (Scheunemann, Boot, John Bolton, Rove) could never run for president. So bring in the mimbo/bimbo, unlatch cranium, open your mouth (or unzip your fly) and start fillin' er up!

Anyways:

Obama's clearly surging. I wonder if Palin's assured "victory" tonight will dampen things a bit for him?

I doubt it'll REVERSE the direction, but yeah...she's certain to "win." Biden's kind of screwed as far as what he can do/say, whereas Palin can spew a bunch of nonsense and fluff without getting called on it.

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kerrchdavis:

where is boomshak?! slay the troll!

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carl29:

KipTin,

Back in August you were relying on a poll with 400LV to make your case about "Obama is losing Michigan." How does it come that a 400LV becomes such a great argument against Obama, but a 721LV poll is just a weak argument in favor of Obama? Could it be that the 400LV was showing Obama trailing McCain by 4%, and that this 721LV shows Obama ahead by 10%? I just wonder.

This is your entry on that day:

"KipTin:
August 25, 2008-- Detroit News, EPIC-MRA Poll:

In the election for President, if the election were held today, would you vote for John McCain the Republican, Barack Obama the Democrat, Ralph Nader the Independent, or Bob Barr the Libertarian?

TOTAL OBAMA - 39%
TOTAL McCAIN - 43%
TOTAL NADER - 3%
TOTAL BARR - 3%

http://www.walbergwatch.com/2008/08/epic-mra-poll-walber-43-schauer-40.html

Posted on September 8, 2008 2:39 PM"

Where is the mention of "sample size" or "sample error"? Oh...maybe the different between then and now, that poll and this poll, is that McCain was winning and now McCain is losing, quite badly indeed :-)

*Keep it up KipTin. I love to research and put the facts on the table.


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Trosen:

Mr. "America," no one doubts John McCain's service and heroicism to his country. (Well, except Karl Rove through whisper campaigns in 2000). But please, please don't tell me you're trying to dig up the Jeramiah Wright/Obama's a secret Muslim stuff. Don't humiliate yourself or your candidate.

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AmericaWins2:

@kiptin

dont worry in a minute they will call you racist for not suporting obama.

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Connor:

@AmericaWins2

Can we get you on a conference call with boomshak on the day Obama is inaugurated? We won't say a word, we'll just listen. Honestly!

OH NO! OH NO!

Oh no, AmericaWins2! Obama's going to win!

Build yourself a tent out of Confederate flags! Quick! Oh NO, AmericaWins2!

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zhimbo:

"AmericanWins2": I see the troll is back.

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carl29:

I won't call anybody "racist" for no supporting Obama. You can go back and check all my entries, I have never changed my nickname, and see that I don't "fit that bill" my friend.

Nonetheless, if I catch someone in "inconsistencies," flip-floping on his or her analysis, bet the farm that I will research that person's previous comments and will uncover that flipper. No, my friend, it's got to be the same thing regardless of in which foot the shoe is in.

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AmericaWins2:

@connor
look at the letters this spells on your phone and you will have my opinion 1800-46-3825-96877353.

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AmericaWins2:

@carl29

I havent changed my nickname because i wanted to it was only because some liberals couldnt handle what i said and so ran off and had a whinge. I think its a victory actually.

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KipTin:

Quit being so emotional and WRONG... carl 29. Your research shows nothing of what you falsely purported I stated.

I never made a case that Obama was losing Michigan. I said he COULD lose because enough from the very large Arab-American community may vote for Lebanese-American Nader, thus taking votes away from Obama, if the race in Michigan is close between McCain and Obama.

P.S. I know you do not like me for calling YOU out on stating average American voters are basically stupid and ill-informed, but trying to paint me as "emotional" as in calling me "depressed" or whatever is really STUPID and PETTY and has no place here in discussing polls.

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Connor:

@AmericaWins2:

Dude, that's clearly not a valid phone number!

Oh, AmericaWins2, less time in the meth lab, more time "book learnin'."

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Babbit:

This just in...

After Palin's debate McCain and Palin suit up and head to Afganistan to search for Osama Bin Ladin.

How's that for a political stunt?

It's a joke btw, but it would have to be something that dramatic to move things at this point.

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Connor:

AmericaWins2 is trying to give me his "digits."

It's so cute!

I mean, I don't swing that way, AmericaWins2, but still, I am very honored.

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AmericaWins2:

"I know you do not like me for calling YOU out on stating average American voters are basically stupid and ill-informed, but trying to paint me as "emotional" as in calling me "depressed" or whatever is really STUPID and PETTY and has no place here in discussing polls."

Thats what liberals call any American who doesnt hate America and votes for American heroes.

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carl29:

Oh..I didn't know that you had changed your nickname. I honestly didn't know. Who were you before? Just out of curiosity. If you don't mind me looking for your previous analysis, let me know your former nickname.

I have never changed my nickname and never will. That is why I try to be as "sober" as possible. I try not to get all worked up for one poll, and start making X or Y assumptions about the whole election. I am not that silly, man :-)

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Connor:

@AmericanWins2

Will you cry when Obama wins (i.e. AmericaLoses2)?

Will Jesse Helms pop out of his casket and walk as the undead?

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Inkan1969:

@carl29

I have to say that lately anyway, KipTin has been all right. I don't like any of his opinions, but his behavior has been OK. Compare him to boomshak or "AmericaWins2". Off the top of my head I can't recall him screaming in his posts without provocation, or acting like a recess bully.

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KipTin:

In response to carl 29 who commented to me... You really sound hysterical to be honest :-) Typical of women of "certain age."

No matter who I am, be CERTAIN that you as a woman will one day be of that "certain age."

BTW: You give Latinas a very bad name as exhibited by your crass behavior.

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AmericaWins2:

@carl29
remove the 2 and you have my previous name. As I said Liberals couldnt handle what I said so they complained.

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Batony:

This debate is turning out to be a critical point in this election.

I really think McCain deserves to behind in NC and Va. He is clearly being outworked. According to the "political insiders", if McCain is still running ads in Ind and NC after Oct. 15th, then this will be a disaster on Nov. 4th.

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Trosen:

AmericaWins2:


"Thats what liberals call any American who doesnt hate America and votes for American heroes."

Like John Kerry?

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AmericaWins2:

@connor
"Will you cry when Obama wins (i.e. AmericaLoses2)?"

Haha!!!! so you admit then that america loses if Obama wins?

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richieBr:

@America:

"Just wait, the truth about his real religon and Ayers, Wright and all his loony friends will come out."

Fine, bring it out (again). The thing is that Wright was already out there, and to a lesser extent Ayers as well. People already know about it.

But if McCain wants to dredge up crap to spew at Obama, then he can expect the same in return. Like how many people out there know that McCain dumped his first wife because she lost her looks, and in fact was actually married to Cindy before his divorce became final. How many fundie wackos out there know that McCain is a degenerate gambler or how he was a big time skirt chaser? How do you think that's going to play with women?

Or how about Obama talks a little bit about McCain and Charles Keating? How do you think that will play out as the country is in the midst of yet another financial meltdown.

Oh there's plenty more. If McCain wants to play in the gutter, we'll play in the gutter. So bring it on.

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Connor:

@AmericaWins2

Oh, for SURE!

Lose, America, LOSE!!!! All of us liberals secretly want America to LOSE!

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AmericaWins2:

@richieBr
The man is a war hero and I think it insults america when you compare him to Obama. The man was tortured for his country!!! and your lies are untrue, how can you say he broke up with his wife because of what she looked like??? Unlike you lies we have the proof that proves Obama and Wright were close friends!! how do you explain he was Obamas priest when he married whitey hating michelle???

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PortlandRocks:

AmericaWins2 better get another screenname. This one is done by day's end too:)

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AmericaWins2:

@connor
well at least your being honest

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jamesia:

I'm a proud liberal, and I do not hate America. That kind of talk is ridiculous. The fact of the matter is, the next president will be a proud, pragmatic liberal. John McCain is an American hero, as is John Kerry, and like David Letterman said - John McCain's actions have not been befitting an American hero.

Sarah Palin, on the other hand, is fully unready for what McCain has thrust her into. She's one of Gingrich's many proteges, yet plucked too early. The sad thing is that because of McCain's reckless selection, her political career is probably over. No, I don't hate Palin, and when I laugh at her it's not because I'm making fun of her. I'm laughing at the irony of McCain, who in his first action displaying presidential judgment, selected someone who could actually have been a barracuda, effectively taking down someone who would have given a Democrat somewhere, sometime a run for their money.

When Barack Obama beat Hillary Clinton both their reputations were still intact. She can still come back and run for President again. Sarah Palin can't for the same reason that Dan Quayle can't.

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carl29:

First of all, since I don't get into race issues I am not going to address my being a "latina." I am my own person Carl.... and that's it. More than enough my friend. I am here representing myself, nobody else.

Second, man you really sound hysterical. If you don't like to be called "clown," please take off the costume and the make-up, so people don't see as a clown any longer. Just my opinion :-)

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PortlandRocks:

Where is Boomshak? I need his expert advise on the +7 Rasmussen. His predictions are always so right on. Remember, SUNDAY Obama will be TIED.

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AmericaWins2:

@portland rocks

I havent said anything offensive towards anyone and here we go again. You just cant handle it when someone disagrees can you?

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AmericaWins2:

@portlandRocks

Can i ask you a question and im not being offensive here. Are you African American?

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PortlandRocks:

AmericaWins2 YOUR AMERICA is 50 years ago. Must be sad for you. This country will be GREAT again if we choose an INTELLIGENT world leader. His name is Barack Obama.

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ItsTheEconomyStupid:

Guys, I really miss boomshak.

At least when things were close we could argue about house effects, Rasmussen's weighting by party-id, etc. But with the race having opened up, all the McTrolls can do is beat the Reverend Wright drum.

Might not Sarah Palin deliver an amazing, game-changing performance tonight? Aren't there any signs left of the inevitable McCain-Palin landslide? C'mon, boomer, enlighten us.

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Timdicator:

@RichieBr

Please ... don't challenge McCain to a gutter fight. That's not a fight Obama can win.

He can win by staying on message, that is all.

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AmericaWins2:

@portlandRocks
"AmericaWins2 YOUR AMERICA is 50 years ago. Must be sad for you. This country will be GREAT again if we choose an INTELLIGENT world leader. His name is Barack Obama."

This country is already great you just dont get that. America will always be great unless you liberals successfully manage to stab it in the back.

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carl29:

Ah...TipKin: Do you have any problems about you being a woman of "certain age"? I don't have a problem with being a 29 year-old woman, 30 next month. I have no age/race/gender issues. Right now I am a proud young woman, mother of 2, married to my husband of almost 10 years, yes I married at the age of 20, the love of my life. When the time comes for me to being a 50 or 60 year-old, believe me, I will have no issues with my age. I will be the first one laughing at Menopause, just as I laugh at my being PMS(Pre-Menstrual-Syndrome) :-)

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Batony:

If I am in the McCain camp...I stay in Pa, Wi, and MI. Too many people in those states are not sold on Obama. Plus after this "financial crisis" is passed let's see what the polls tell us. Minnesota is a nice thought, but he has to defend Mo, Co, NV, Va, NC, Fl, OH and IN. And when I say defend NC and Va that means at least campaign there.

Co and Nv in my opinion will still decide this election. I would also keep an eye for NM.

Man, they have a lot riding on Ms. Palin tonight. Wow...

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angrytoxicologist:

All those who are claiming to be non-emotional but TYPING IN ALL CAPS may need a valium. Please see a Dr.

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Tyler:

AmericaWins2 seems to be a troll - he's just too over the top with exaggerated stereotypicial right-wing talking points. I don't think he is a genuine wingnut like boomshak. Save your effort in arguing with him.

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kerrchdavis:

@America Wins2

You can complain all you want about being unfairly targeted for racism. However, aren't you the low life scumbag who, the other day, was saying that Americans should not vote for Obama because you thought his dad was a Muslim and because he has a muslim sounding middle name.

pathetic.

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cmbat:

@AmericaWins2-

That, my friend, is the funniest thing I have heard all week. Thanks for that. Needed a good laugh.

America needs the TRUTH about what?

That McBush has flipped his position on the economy 12 times in the last 3 weeks?

That the surge was laid out by Rove in 2006 with the intent of helping the Republican nominee win in 2008, using our troops once again for politics?

That McBush was in favor of the (wrong) war from the start? That he is beholden to both the military industrial complex and now the oil industry?

That McBush is too old to live through a term and Sarah Palin is likely to be President if he wins, and she doesn't know the name of a magazine she has read or a Supreme Court case?

Nah, nevermind. Let's talk about Ayers and Rev. Wright. Because that matters.

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KipTin:

Who would have thunk that anyone (that means you carl29) would be discussing menstrual cycles/phases here on a pollster site?

Hmmm... "race" vs. "ageism?" No problem with either. Enough said on these very irrelevant topics.

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KipTin:

I should have said "age" rather than "ageism." Because I do have issues with the latter.

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bclintonk:

I smell a landslide coming. This is starting to feel like 1980, but with the parties reversed: close in September but the voters deeply uneasy about where the country was going under the incumbent party; many initially wary of the unfamiliar and seemingly untested "outsider" but warming to him as the campaign went along and the outsider more and more talked and looked like a president; the veteran leader at the head of the incumbent party looking increasingly clueless about how to lift the country out of the morass.

Say it all together now: landslide.

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carl29:

Gender and PMS or Menopause are totally related. This is an election season when race and gender has taken center stage everyday. I have no problems with making fun of me. I am a woman, proud woman with its pluses and minuses. I have no issues with my womanhood, my friend :-) When menopause comes around, I will laugh my rear-end at it.

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Connor:

@KipTin

In a previous thread, you claimed to be a progressive. But from my understanding (and please: correct me if I'm wrong), you're a McCain supporter.

Can you please explain to me your progressive political ideology, specifically how it leads you to support McCain?

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faithhopelove:

PPP finds Obama up 10 points in MI ahead of his 2-stop visit there today. His efforts today may all but seal the state. Even before this poll, McCain's people did not see MI as one of their best pickup opportunities; his own pollster has named just three such opportunities--NH, PA, and WI. See:
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/pi_20080927_1179.php

This poll is fresh. The size of its sample is large enough. Its demographic breakdown appears realistic. Because it is from a Democratic pollster, it may have some hidden bias toward Obama; however, this possible Obama advantage is likely canceled-out by the under-sampling of Obama's support that results from not calling cell phones (multiple studies have now found that not including cell phone only voters under-estimates Obama's support by 2-3%). Making up 10% in MI in just a month will be next to impossible for McCain, as PPP finds only 8% of voters there undecided--even if all 8% broke for McCain, he would lose the state. Also, 91% of decided voters are "firmly committed" to their candidate.

Obama has led this state in 9 of the last 10 polls, with 1 tie. He has led in 5 MI polls in a row, by as many as 13 points. The closest McCain has come in these polls is 3 points--and that in a Republican SV poll.

Other polling shows the Midwest region (which includes MI) trending away from McCain. Gallup found the 2 candidates tied in the Midwest from September 8-14, Obama up 8 there from September 15-21, and Obama up 13 there from September 22-28. Today's Research 2000 tracker has Obama up 16 points in the Midwest.

As far as GOTV efforts go, Obama has 50 field offices in MI; McCain has 14. In 2004, a gay marriage measure on the MI ballot helped GOP GOTV efforts there; there is nothing similar on the MI ballot this year.

MI has voted Democratic in 4 consecutive presidential elections.

Springsteen campaigns for Obama there on Monday.


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Inkan1969:
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political_junki:

We can stop arguing over Michigan, McSame has accepted defeat and is pulling out tails between legs:

McSame pulling out of MI:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/1008/McCain_pulling_out_of_Michigan.html

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CTPonix4BHObama:

McLame abandons michigan.

I like this poll, big sample, low MOE and ten point lead.

This is one giant nail in the coffin of McC's presidential aspirations.

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Florida Voter:

Wow, McCain is going out of biz in Michigan. I think the writing is on the wall. And now they are going to divert some resources to Maine as the TV advertising is cheap there. Like someone else posted, he has to win Ohio and Florida to ever have a chance at 270. It may be an early night for the Maverick. I did take vacation days on 11/4 & 5, thinking it will be a long night til we know something.

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cinnamonape:

Actually the last high sample size for PPP was the unusual one. Their earlier polls for Michigan were a little under this one. As well, they are not sampling numbers much different from other pollsters, and the last one was well above most.

I suspect that the last poll was larger perhaps to determine the impact of the conventions on the election...or perhaps they used a split survey with more questions.

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Paul:

Michigan was a tough state for McCain to begin with. In 2004 5% more Democrats voted in the presidential election than Republicans. McCain's only hope would have been to swamp Obama with Independents, which does not seem to be happening anywhere in a battleground state.

As noted above, report is McCain is checking out of Michigan. He can also forget Pennsylvania. Where to now?

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Paul:

Additional analysis, adjusted for 2004 exit poll demographics:

By gender: Obama +10
By party ID: Obama +8
By race: Obama +10
By age: Obama +10

Conclusion: this PPP poll looks very solid.

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slinky:

October 2, 2008, 2:30 pm
McCain Pulls Out of Michigan
By Adam Nagourney

John McCain’s decision to cancel a campaign event in Michigan next week was not a matter of scheduling: Mr. McCain is giving up his effort to take the state back into the red column, concluding that economic distress there has simply put the state out of reach, according to Republicans familiar with the decision.

Michigan had been one of Mr. McCain’s top targets for two reasons: evidence that Barack Obama was having trouble connecting with blue-collar voters (which presumably would be a problem there), and also because the Democratic candidates did not participate in the state’s primary after Michigan defied Democratic party rules and held it earlier than permitted.

Republican officials said that polling suggested that Mr. Obama was building a lead there, and said they concluded that it wasn’t worth spending any more campaign funds – or Mr. McCain’s time – in the state.

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