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MO: 54% Blunt, 41% Carnahan (Rasmussen 8/23)

Topics: Missouri , poll

Rasmussen
8/23/10; 750 likely voters, 4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Missouri

2010 Senate
54% Blunt (R), 41% Carnahan (D) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Roy Blunt: 57 / 37
Robin Carnahan: 42 / 53

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 58 (chart)
Gov. Nixon: 53 / 43 (chart)

 

Comments
Paleo:

Even though this margin is ridiculous, based on other recent polls, I'd have to move this race from tossup to leans Republican. Kentucky may now be the Dems best hope for a pickup.

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StatyPolly:

Bob, with your permission.. an off-topic post?

RCP just adjusted their House map.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

Second adjustment in the past 5-6 days. Keep moving members from lean Dem into tossups and from tossups into lean GOP.

Drip Drip.

I have no clue where they get their data though. Or what they base it on.

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Paleo:

"I have no clue where they get their data though. Or what they base it on."

Well considering it's Real Conservative Politics, that narrows it down.

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MikeyA:

Wow the libs are bashing Realclearpolitics for not giving them favorable results now.

Wonder who they will bash Nov 3rd?

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Paleo:

"RealClearPolitics is a Chicago based political website founded in 2000 by John McIntyre and Tom Bevan. Every day a wide range of columns and news stories from across the Internet are aggregated on the website, although many typically have a conservative slant."

http://newstrust.net/sources/real_clear_politics


In an interview with the conservative magazine Human Events, McIntyre described the philosophy behind the Web site as based on "freedom" and "common-sense values." Said Bevan, "We think debate on the issues is a very important thing. We post a variety of opinions." He further stated, "we have a frustration all conservatives have", which is "the bias in media against conservatives, religious conservatives, [and] Christian conservatives."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RealClearPolitics

Enough said.

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Field Marshal:

Since they are not some uber-liberal news source, they are clearly biased, correct?

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Paleo:

No, they are conservative. That's why their biased.

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Field Marshal:

All news is biased. The sooner learn that, the better off you'll be.

But again, they are not the one's making the determination of the classification of the individual seats. So your points is moot.

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Mike E:

"Even though this margin is ridiculous..."

Really? Lefty polling alliance of Daily Koos/ and PPP (D) had Blunt up by 7 a week ago Momentum toward Blunt and margins of error make this result far from ridiculous. It is quite delightful though.

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Paleo:

Whatever. 7 is believable, 13 isn't. Competitive Missouri senate races don't end up with 13 point margins.

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Mike E:

"Competitive Missouri senate races don't end up with 13 point margins."

Its the era of Obama. We are in uncharted waters.

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Dave:

Yeah, who would think a state that rejected Obamacare 71%-29% would be against a Democratic candidate.

Why, it's unbelievable!

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Bob in SJ:

@ Staty

I'm not your mom or your teacher, so you don't need my permission, but it would be nice if we could keep the threads relevant to the topic. I think it helps dialog. I mean, they do post major polls here shortly after they come out. But whatever.

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Cederico:

While I am sure the margin is not 11 points, this race does seems to be headed in Blunt's favor. Once he started to tie Carnahan to Obama he started to gain traction. Carnahan has tried to tie him to the Bush Bailouts and paint him as a DC Insider but apparently that isn't working yet.

This on the surface is one of the more winnable races for DEMS...Carnahan was a very popular statewide winner with a name that's political gold in the state. But the baggage from Obama's unpopularity in this state is bringing her down much as Bush II's record low unpopularity brought down GOP Senators in the 2006 / 2008 elections. She cannot win this race without Obama's numbers rebounding.

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Farleftandproud:

Missouri has disintigrated as a state and their politicians demonstrate that clearly. Blunt being this favorable doesn't surprise me, but 2 years from now Mccaskill will be well liked and blunt will not. They have a good governor who probably has some of the same positions as Carnahan, but because she is running on the anti-washington, anti-big business corruption and pro-small business agenda, the voters seem to be rewarding Blunt since, the "Blame obama" Agenda is all that people think about these. days.

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Juan Chin:

Carnahan has been on television with some hard hitting ads against Blunt for the last few weeks. It's shocking to see her numbers going further south. My guess is this these are the results of just polling Missurah not Missouree. Rasmussen did a good job of excluding St. Louis city and Jackson County voters.
Furthermore, it is so funny to read the far right garbage arguments the righties make on this website.

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HookedOnPolls:

"Its the era of Obama. We are in uncharted waters."

And we're drowning in his debt...glub, glub

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AlanSnipes:

!hhoked on polls:
You mean we are drowning in the debt Bush left us after Bill Clinton left budget surpluses four years in a row!

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HookedOnPolls:

Sorry, but no. Bush's debt had my head bobbling just above water. Obama's amount has us praying for a snorkle.

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IdahoMulato:

NOW WITH THE FLORIDA PRIMARY RESULTS, I HAVE A REASON NOT TO TRUST RASMUSSEN. I NOW BELIEVE IN PPP EVEN MORE FOR ALMOST NAILING THE GOP GUBERNATORIAL RACE.

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StatyPolly:

What did Ras get for FL primaries?

Don't think he polled those.

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tjampel:

Yeah...Quinn and Mason Dixon both screwed it up and Daily KOS lapdog PPP nailed it

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StatyPolly:

Still, it must be Ras' fault.

If you just think about it logically..

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Cederico:

"HookedOnPolls:
Sorry, but no. Bush's debt had my head bobbling just above water. Obama's amount has us praying for a snorkle."

I just had to comment on this. Bush II raised the national debt by about 4 trillion or so dollars with his massive tax cuts, big government spending and his two wars through Sept 2008.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-500803_162-4486228-500803.html

The fiscal year 2008-2009 deficit was a record 1.4 trillion....this was the last fiscal year Bush II was responsible for so add another 1.4 trillion to that previous 4 trillion. That 2008-2009 budget included the Bush Bank Bailout of 750 billion dollars.

So far Obama's first budget 2009-2010 has produced a 1.3 trillion deficit. Now that is horrible but how in the world do you think he is worst than Bush who added 5.4 trillion dollars to our national debt when he came into office with a record budet surplus left from Bill Clinton?

The conservatives complaining about Obama and his spending/deficits need to get their facts straight and acknowledge the reckless spending and deficits that "conservative" George W. Bush wrought on this country.

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Field Marshal:

The fiscal year 2008-2009 deficit was a record 1.4 trillion....this was the last fiscal year Bush II was responsible for so add another 1.4 trillion to that previous 4 trillion. That 2008-2009 budget included the Bush Bank Bailout of 750 billion dollars.

Actually Cederico, of the $1.4 trillion deficit in fiscal 2009, nearly $500 billion should go to Obama since the stimulus and the omnibus spending (union and special interest payoff) bill were passed and signed by him.

Secondly, Obama's budgets all the way until 2020 do not show a deficit LESS than any of Bush's budget outside of his last.

Yes, conservatives are complaining about Obama's spending just like they complained about Bush's.

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Paleo:

Complaining about them when Bush was in power? Maybe you were, but I didn't hear any others. And certainly Republicans in congress and running for congress didn't say boo about them. But when a Democrat is president, suddenly it's a big deal.

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Aaron_in_TX:

"Yes, conservatives are complaining about Obama's spending just like they complained about Bush's."

There were some complaints, but they weren't all that loud. There's a lot people will put up with when someone's in office that shares their prejudices.

Ie: democrats not really getting upset about Iraq (far from over) and Afghanistan (getting worse).

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