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MO: Blunt 49 Carnahan 43 (Rasmussen 1/19)

Topics: poll

Rasmussen
1/19/10; 500 likely voters, 4.5% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(Rasmussen release)

Missouri

2010 Senate
Blunt 49%, Carnahan 43% (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Roy Blunt: 56 / 34
Robin Carnahan: 49 / 46

Job Approval / Disapproval
Pres. Obama: 41 / 58 (chart)
Gov. Nixon: 61 / 34 (chart)

 

Comments
Stillow:

I think will be standard in this race for Blunt to hold a 5 point edge or so for a while. In a normal year much closer, but with the anti Dem mood right now Blunt should do just fine i nthis race.

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Xenobion:

Not bad for a conservative look (Rasmussen) for Carnahan since he's leading overall against Blunt.

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Field Marshal:

This will be a tossup until closer to November. It will depend on the mood of the country.

The race hasnt been polled since Mid December when Ras did it showing Carnahan up by 2. All the other polls were from Sept or earlier and are essentially useless.

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Xenobion:

Considering this is an open seat from Kit Bond (R) I'm surprised its as competitive as it is. Carnahan won't have to vote on HCR and while MO is a bellweather I'm sure the local politics will prevail. Blunt will obviously run on an anti-democratic ticket but that'll be somewhat ineffectual on a candidate that is the operating sectratery of state.

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Stillow:

Blunt is going to hold this seat for the reds...

I want polls out of Indiana....cus I think Bayh is toast. That guy totally screwed himself by voting for HCR. Pence or Daniels will challenge him and they will beat him.

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Xenobion:

Noone really is running against Bayh yet. Pence wants majority whip if the chance arrives. Its far easier and more rewarding than even a Senator race and the money to challenge Bayh. Republicans have far better chances of taking the House back than the Senate anyways. It would be a tactical mistake to gut leadership for a Senate seat that Republicans think they can take now versus how the political climate will be later.

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Stillow:

Well I prefer the highly popular governor daniels challenge him. Hoeven is the main reason Dorgan dropped out....if Daniels challenges Bayh I beleive he would defat Bayh....bayh's support for HCR in a pretty conservative state will hurt him. Espeically with the Indy's breaking so heavily to the right at the present time.

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Xenobion:

There's no speculation that Dainiels would ever run for Senator. There's only spec for President but he's been quite adament in only maintaining Gov. Wishful thinking really. You'll only see these people move to think about it when a poll comes out showing their popularity. Until then I highly doubt random people running for Bayh's seat.

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JMSTiger:

Missouri has been moving toward the Republican Party for several election cycles. Blunt will pull this out probably by 5%+ in the end, mainly because 2010 is going to be a horrible environment for Democrats. As of right now, I seriously doubt any Republican Senate seats go over to the Democrats, including Missouri.

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farleftandproud:

Yeah Missouri has a lot of people in St Louis, mostly poor and black who don't vote, or have been in trouble with the law so much, they can't vote. The Suburbs and rural areas are very religious, so I am not surprised they would prefer the most lackluster candidate of either party running in 2010 over Carnahan. When the economy is bad and you want more jobs, the white independent solution to the problem is to vote Republican. THis is the state that gave us John Ashcroft, the guy I had nightmares about. I'll never forget the fun days after 9/11 when I was among 20 percent of the population that was worried about our civil liberties being taken away.

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farleftandproud:

I would say that there will be 2 seats where Dems will replace republicans, and that is Delaware and that heavily african american area near New Orleans.

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IdahoMulato:

If the elections were held today dems will be clobbered.

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farleftandproud:

Rasmussen has had in for Obama since day one. I admit likely voters favor republicans especially in a mediocre Democratic year, but I don't think presidential approval should be painted by the likely voter model. Turnout is always way better during a presidential election.

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farleftandproud:

Idaho Mullato: The election isn't being held today thank God. Fortunately it is in November and Dems can get on their game plan to insure they dont get clobbered. I thought that supreme court decision today was ridiculous; giving large corporations more unlimited means of cheating in campaigns. If Bush was still president, I would say par for the course, but Obama needs to take charge against the Roberts courts and show him whose boss.People For the American Way is launching a campaign to pass an amendment to the U.S. Constitution which would nullify the worst part of the Court's decision by granting Congress the authority to limit corporate influence in elections. This is not something that we take lightly. But the very foundation of our democracy could depend on our ability to overturn this decision. This is Tyranny!

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farleftandproud:

This was likely brought to the attention of the courts because Mccain ran a very honest campaign, if you don't include his sidekick from Alaska. He was a supporter of campaign finance reform. Probably his honesty is exactly what the post Bush GOP doesn't like. Cases such as these throw bi-partisanship right out the window.

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Bigmike:

@Xenobion

Robin Carnahan is a she.

@farleftandproud

Oh, where to begin. Lets start with Blunt being the "most lackluster candidate." What do you base that assessment on?

Do you know anything about MO or are you applying some stereotype to St Louis?

Is People for the American Way also upset that the courts decision treats organized labor the same as it does businesses? If you want to restrict one isn't it fair to restrict both?

You do realize the chances of getting an amendment to the constitution passed are pretty much zero.

It wasn't McCains honesty I have a problem with. It was his stupidity. Why would you take public financing for your campaign when your opponent doesn't. Being outspent 5-1 might put you at a slight disadvantage.

What bi-partisanship? Did any GOP input go into either the house or senate HCR bills?

@The rest of the gang.

I don't know much about Daniels in IN. But I am not so sure Pence doesn't have his sights set a little higher. Maybe some nationally elected office. I am not sure he is one of the many salivating at the chance to run against BO in 2012. He might be angling for a shot at VP first.

Here is what little I do know about Pence. My Libertarian son living in AR gets junk mail from him. The boy has never even set foot in IN. If you are only worried about running in one congressional district, why spend your postage money reaching out to those right minded thinkers who live in other states? Not even a neighboring state.

As for the MO race, given the small sample and the MOE and add in that it is mid-January, I won't take much for granted. I'm donating to the Blunt campaign.

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farleftandproud:

Blunt has little charisma, and he just doesn't have much originality. He is in the House, and is a washington person; he doesn't have the populist appeal that the Virginia and NJ new governors had. He is just as much part of the GOP machine as Barney Frank is of the Democrat machine being minority whip. I knew his son was a horrible governor from everything I read, and is even more of an extreme conservative than his dad. I do like Claire Mccaskill though and I feel bad for how she was disrespected at that town hall last summer. It was very telling when someone in the audience ripped up a picture of Rosa Parks. I had never seen the "mob rule mentality" at it's worse. It is stupid conservative morons who have to resort to that stuff far more than radicals these days, have these angry protests. Progressives articulate their ideas through writing, music, poetry, movies, books and even progressive churches or synagogues.

Obama would kick Pence's ass because I have seen him on religious stations making some comments that are slightly more polite than Pat Robertson. He is way too right, too theocratic too much of a pillar of the extreme Christian right, and unlike Bush he goes on Focus on the family to explain the whole, "liberals have no morals crap". My morals still tell me that having 50 million uninsured Americans yet we spend trillions and borrow trillions to fight these wasted wars, there is something wrong. He probably could defeat bayh; there are voters stupid enough to vote for him.

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