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Monday's "Outliers"

Topics: Outliers Feature

UNC PoliSci Prof Jim Stimson has "never seen such stability" in his daily estimates of the national popular vote (via Nyhan).

Lydia Saad recalls two late comebacks and

Frank Newport finds persistently high support for McCain among highly religious white voters.

Gary Langer reports a significant drop in feelings of racial prejudice during the campaign.

Kathy Frankovic analyzes the Bradley Effect on video.

Carl Bialik has a Numbers Guy Election Reading List.

AP's Alan Fram answers questions on why polls vary.

Shankar Vendantam summarizes the Gerber-Green-Larimer research on get-out-the-vote techniques.

Greg Sargent reports on Indiana call center workers quitting in protest over calls attacking Obama.

 

Comments
Vicente Duque:


Mark :

I continue predicting a Big Obama Landslide.

It is not only a hunch but is also based on "exit polls" of Dems and Reps for Early Voting places, long lines of Blacks and Latinos, and a general enthusiasm.

The best two scenarios to prove the Obama Landslide are Florida and North Carolina with many reports of long lines, and people waiting many hours to vote under hot sunshine.

Nobody has seen that before, which proves the strong enthusiasm and determination of the Obamites or Obamists.

I constantly read the Miami Herald, La Times and Denver Post and I see all the stars shining for Obama.

But there are specialized sites for Early Voting and even a Map in CNN.

FirsRead of MSNBC and other informative places.

And a Pew Research "Exit Poll" of Early Voters finds the first indication of a Landslide for Obama.

See more in :

http://tossupstates.blogspot.com/

http://milenials.blogspot.com/

Vicente Duque

____________________

Vicente Duque:


Reality Ensues for Bettors ( before November 4 ) :

I need some help. Please correct me if I am wrong.

I have been searching in Google for a theory of "converge to reality" in "Futures Trade".

But I only found a lot of Military Theories, or War Games and Simulations.

I make this observation about INTRADE :

As November 4 approaches, INTRADE converges to reality. The wrong fantasies, delusions and mistaken perceptions of traders are corrected by the hard and painful reality of losing money.

So the Obama Victory Tossups start to increase value for Obama in the final days before November 4. And the McCain Final Victory Tossups do the same for McCain.

I update my published tables of Prices for INTRADE State Bets, everyday. And I have observed this phenomenon :

CO, NV, NM, OH, FL,
IA, NH, PA, VA

steadily increase or keep constant at high values for Obama.

NC, MO, IN are very Random and extremely dangerous and volatile. Nonpredictable.

IN, MT, ND, GA, AZ,
WV, AR, LA, TN, SD
have decreased in value for Obama and increased for McCain. Some investors were bullish on them, but enthusiasm has decreased for Obama.

So this theory predicts the Final Veredict before November 5.

But it is only a theory and may have many leaks, or it may be utter stupidity.

More Info on :

http://tossupstates.blogspot.com/

http://tossupstates.milenials.com/

Vicente Duque

____________________


I have to correct a mistake.

Indiana (IN) is not a McCain secure state.
It has been a super random volatile dangerous state dancing between McCain and Obama in bet Prices. Unpredictable.

I placed Indiana in the three random states and repeated it in the McCain States. Indiana is not a McCain Sure Victory, not yet.

Excuse me

Vicente Duque

____________________



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