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NBC-MasonDixon: AZ, PA, MN (10/27-28)

Topics: PHome

NBC / Mason-Dixon
10/27-28/08
Mode Live Telephone Interviews

Pennsylvania 625 LV, 4%
Obama 47, McCain 43

Arizona 625 LV, 4%
McCain 48, Obama 44

Minnesota 625 LV, 4%
Obama 48, McCain 40

 

Comments
NorthernObserver:

Maybe the PA number will keep McCain in the state.

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thorfinn:

Interesting, PA seems low, Minnesota seems low too. It's a big disjoint between other polls done just a day before.

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PooNani:

you gotta be kidding me with these. suddenly Obama loses 6 points of support and there are 10% undecided?

Obama's support in the four polls of today and yesterday in PA

53
55
53
55

Mason Dixon has had a demonstrated R lean this year but this is just ridiculous

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OGLiberal:

Too many undecideds in all of these polls, especially this close to election day.

And the PA one is drastically different than other polls released in that state just today and yesterday.

This is likely NBC (with M-D's assistance) trying to keep a "comeback" narrative going through election day. If McCain has no path to victory in PA, this thing is already over. All of the other polls - even the Rasmussen that had Obama at only +7 but at 53% with only 1% undecided - pretty much confirm that McCain doesn't have a shot there, even if they are all slanted by 3-4 pts in Obama's favor. This M-D poll, even if it's the only one showing it this close, allows the media to keep saying, "well, as the Mason-Dixon poll showed, he still has a shot in Pennsylvania."

And I'm not saying this because I'm worried. I am officially not worried about PA...and never have been. Even with Obama's decent lead in Virginia, it's the state that worries me most, simply because it hasn't gone Dem in over 40 years and, unlike CO, NV, and NM, it was not tight in 2004.

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Dave:

those seem a bit skewed, and yet obama is STILL ahead... lets see the internals on these.

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PooNani:

should be noted that MasonDixon's only other poll of PA this calendar year was:

9/19: O 46, M 44

and MasonDixon has never polled MN this year, but Rasmussen had it at 55/43 with an RCP avg of 51/40

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PooNani:

should be noted that MasonDixon's only other poll of PA this calendar year was:

9/19: O 46, M 44

and MasonDixon has never polled MN this year, but Rasmussen had it at 55/43 with an RCP avg of 51/40

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BarackO'Clinton:

The PA poll:

Obama +4 is a good thing

McCain at 43% is a bad thing

No cause for concern...

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drdr:

U of M/MPR poll released today for MN

Obama 56
McCain 37

"If I'm a John McCain supporter, I'm concerned," University of Minnesota political science professor Larry Jacobs said. "This is just not good news."

http://minnesota.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/10/29/obama_leads_minnesota_poll/

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NW Patrick:

Deep breath everyone!:)

RCP Average 10/23 - 10/28 -- -- 52.3 42.8 Obama +9.5

NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 47 43 Obama +4
Morning Call 10/24 - 10/28 610 LV 4.0 53 42 Obama +11
CNN/Time 10/23 - 10/28 768 LV 3.5 55 43 Obama +12
Rasmussen 10/27 - 10/27 500 LV 4.5 53 46 Obama +7
Marist 10/26 - 10/27 713 LV 4.0 55 41 Obama +14
InAdv/PollPosition 10/26 - 10/26 588 LV 3.8 51 42 Obama +9
Quinnipiac 10/22 - 10/26 1364 LV 2.7 53 41 Obama +12
Associated Press/GfK 10/22 - 10/26 607 LV 4.0 52 40 Obama +12
Franklin & Marshall 10/21 - 10/26 LV 4.2 53 40 Obama +13
Temple Univ. 10/20 - 10/26 761 LV 3.6 50 41 Obama +9

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drdr:

Previous UofM/MPR on Oct. 5

Obama 50
McCain 42

So a shift of +11 to Obama in October in MN.

NBC/M-D poll is strange with so many undecided 1 week before election.

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C.S.Strowbridge:

So Obama gained 2 points in Pennsylvania in 6 weeks. Now McCain needs to gain 5 points in 6 days to win. Not likely.

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Atomique:

What's up with Mason-Dixon? The PA and MN polls are obviously skewed in favor of the GOP, and still they're among the best numbers Obama has seen from this polling organization. Only three other polls ALL YEAR from Mason-Dixon have shown Obama with a greater than three point lead in any swing state (in IA, WI, and NH, where they gave Obama an 11 to 12 point advantage).

What a quirky pollster.

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thorfinn:

My educated guess is PA is closer to 7/8 points for Obama. Too wild a swing in four/five days

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balancebudget:

There have been several "partnerships" that could explain these numbers.

Rasmussen frequently conducts polls with Fox, NBC frequently polls with Wall Street Journal. Anecdotally, these polls appear to lean R.

Perhaps this explains why the WSJ today in their World-Wide roundup is claiming that "...McCain is within striking distance in Florida" (nothing new there) and Obama has a narrower gap than last week in Ohio.
The WSJ has become too partisan to be reliable.

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SmarterThanYou:

Sampling sizes seem extremely small. Especially in PA. Polls released just yesterday had Obama up double digits. Very Odd poll, especially without the internals.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

WOW!!!!

I've been saying it for months and I will say it again..this is gonna be very, very close race in all toss-up states!

As far as PA..I've watched many kool aid drinkers claiming PA is out of reach..well, what do you all have to say now? Don't speak about something you know nothing about! I am from PA and live in a heavy democratic area (The Lehigh valley) and support for McCain is very impressive. Move further North (Scranton, Poconos, Western PA) and McCain beats Obama 2-1! I said it before and I will say it again: Philly alone will not win PA for Obambi!!

Stay tuned folks!

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billwy:

Listen, I don't want to start getting the "boom treatment" on here...I am a libertarian and could careless who wins this election, I just like the horse race. In that regard I am pulling slightly for McCain.
But I think a lot of you are missing some major points in PA. The place is full of Hillary supporters who are not happy about things like bitter-gate...and Murtha's comments only serve to fan the flames of what people think that wing of the democratic party thinks or says about western PA.
I posted a link on here two days ago that Trosen mocked,to a Hillary website that quoted people from Hillary's campaign who are working on McCain's campaign as saying they think McCain is going to win the state.
Furthermore, I can tell you I just graduated from a seminary in BlueBell which is a NW burb of Philly. During the primary season, it was Clinton signs you saw, not Obama signs.
Also, Mason-Dixon does have a house effect toward republicans. But they are very good at polling Maryland and Pennsylvania. And the number they have for Arizona is better for Obama than some other polls out of the state.
Maybe we should not dismiss the Obama internal poll-maybe it wasn't an elaborate hoax to fake McCain out. Maybe Ed Rendell is legitamately scared that McCain and Palin could rally the troops for a surprise.
I'm just saying maybe.

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Washingtonian1:

4 polls out yesterday in Pennsylvania show Obama with a 11-14 point lead. The Mason-Dixon poll is a clear outlier. Don't waste your time worrying about it.

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RussTC3:

They're not pushing undecided's enough at all. Less than a week away from the election and ~10% undecided/3rd party for all three of these polls?

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boomshak:

Insiders in PA say that Obama is going to lose the state by 5 points.

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RaleighNC:

Barry isn't closing the deal. Maybe the infomercial helped. Doubt it. He seemed like a cardboard cut out. Stiff. Detached.

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sotonightthatimightsee:

"Mason Dixon has had a demonstrated R lean this year but this is just ridiculous"


Oh for the love of Christ!! Can't you people, for one second, be open to the idea that maybe your messiah is losing steam? Why do you praise those pollsters who have him up and trash those who don't- even if this same pollster had him up just recently? MY GOD!!! Get a life! You don't see me whining about the AZ poll, do you? I think it's terrible for McCain to be up in his own state just 4%..but I'm not gonna crucify the messenger for it..I blame McCain for not spending one day in his own state!

There!

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couseydee:

Strange MN numbers. Another one came out today that has Obama up 19 points here. It will likely be on Pollster later today.

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NoMcSame:

Do you really believe what sotonightthatimightsee and Washingtonian are saying? Do you really believe Obama is struggling in Pennsylvania because of Hillary supporters for McCain?

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DecaturMark:

On the other hand. McCain is only up 4 in his home state of AZ. Also within MOE. Could we see AZ turning yellow before Nov 4?

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boomshak:

I am telling you, my sources say that McCain WILL win PA and not by a little.

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NoMcSame:


Do you really believe what sotonightthatimightsee and Washingtonian are saying? Do you really believe Obama is struggling in Pennsylvania because of Hillary supporters for McCain?

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bmrKY:

LMAO at all the right wing PA polling "experts" on here. You guys do know that all tight polls do is scare more dems into getting out and voting, right? Not that we need it, these last 8 years have been scary enough and no democrat that I know wants a repeat.

So experts, what is Mason Dixon picking up that other pollsters in Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Colorado aren't? Why no internals for these polls?

By the way, if McCain only wins his home state by 4 points, as MD shows, then he will lose Pennsylvania 9 points or more.

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VermontWisdom:

Whether deliberately biased or not, Mason Dixon has favored McCain in state poll after state poll compared to the other pollsters. Therefore no need to be concerned about MN and PA if you are an Obama supporter. But if you are a McCain supporter that AZ number must have you shaking in your boots! Is AZ, McCain's 2008 TN? How sweet that would be.

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Viperlord:

The sources again, lol!

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Trosen:

that's right billwy and I'll mock it again. hillbuzz.com is a very weakly veiled charade of "angry Hillary supporters" who magically have become extrodinarily right-wing and hysterical. Obama has about 80% of the former Hillary vote, and while that's a little lower than I'd hoped, it's fine. I'll even throw out the other 20 or so Pa polls that show a doble digit lead and just pretend there's only 1, then average it with this poll, and guess what you have? A 6 or 7 point Obama lead with 5 days to go. PA is your best hope.. and that's your problem. But I hate to break it to you.. but if you've seen the VA, CO, NM, and NV polls lately.. even flipping PA might not even do it for McCain anymore. So best of luck.. you'll need it.

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djneedle83:

I live in Connecticut and I never saw a Clinton sign during the primary.

The state was filled with Obama lawn signs during the winter. Currently, the Obama to McCain (lawn-sign/bumper sticker ratio) is about 20-25 to 1-1.5.

Mason-Dixon Line is definitely showing legitimate signs that they are having issues measuring Obama's level of support.

Obama will win Pennsylvania by at-least 9%-12% because of the historic African-American turnout and 18-30 year olds who will account for the cell phone effect.

The cell phone effect will give Obama 2% to 3.5% bounce in the final polling outcome in Pennsylvania. The bounce will be highest in true-blue states with major urban cities.

Cell phone effect higher end (2.5% to 3.5%)


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tjampel:

PA has run "left" of OH in the past few electoral cycles by several points. Look (calmly) at what's happened in OH and add 3-4 points (more like 4-5 but let's be ultra-conservative with our wingnut friends here.

OH Obama 5.6 (in RCP, the right-leaning standard) + 3= Obama + 8.6 in PA

It's not close, but if this poll keeps McCain in PA and keeps his money in the Philly and Pittsburgh markets Mason Dixon should get "Obama Points" for it's efforts

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Mister H.:

Before all of the trolls go nuts....keep this in mind:

The exact Mason-Dixon poll in PA last month was apparently only +2 for Obama. That would mean that he has doubled his lead. And that according to them, there is NO MCCAIN SURGE!

Lots of folks are saying that it was an outlier last month, based on what the others said. And it looks like it is once again.

Keep in mind that even Rasmussen was saying that it was a +7 spread for Obama. And many think that might be a little low according to most other polls.

CNN/Time has a new set of statewide polls out....and PA looks to have gains for Obama, plus in most other states.

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bmrKY:

hey expert shak, my source named Rasmussen is telling me that Obama will win PA by 7 points or more, that Obama will win the national election by 5 points or more, and that Obama will, and I quote, "Carry 364 electoral votes"

This all coming from big daddy Uncle Ras, the guy mr. shak told us to "WATCH RAS THIS WEEK! IF THERE IS A TIGHTENING, RAS WILL SHOW IT!"

51-46. Quite the tightening. Just more bad weekend numbers for Obama, with Obama steadily improving throughout the work week.

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RS:

@Washingtonian1:
The outlier poll *could* be the right one... See PPP in WI and Selzer in IA during the Democratic primaries.
But as I said earlier this morning on the "morning update" and "hidden vote for McCain" threads - Obama's currently at 50+% in IA, NM, CO, VA and NV - which should be enough to reach 270 even without PA.

As for this M-D poll in PA - we can freak out, or we can work harder at GOTV.
I choose Door 2.

@billwy - if you are a libertarian, you should really be pulling for... Obama! Obama doesn't mandate health insurance for adults; he doesn't interfere in the personal lives of people (I don't know which seminary you graduated from, so maybe this is anathema to you... but gay rights and abortion rights are libertarian principles; see Goldwater, Barry); he doesn't want to spend taxpayer money bailing out banks; he doesn't want to get involved in nation-building in Iraq, just wants to finish bin Laden/Al-Qaeda who attacked us. Just sayin'...

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Inkan1969:

@boomshak

What "sources" are these? They appear to be as anonymous as the "whack job" source. I guess that makes boomshak a "f---ing lying scumbag".

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Viperlord:

Until another poll confirms this, it means squat. And as someone pointed out, Obama's actually doubled his lead in this poll.

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Flashlight:

"boomshak:
I am telling you, my sources say that McCain WILL win PA and not by a little."

Hee-hee.

Tell the little pollster who lives in your butt I said hi.

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Lou-NH:

I don't write-off any pollster but a quick look at 4 battleground states this year show a strong republican lean.

VA last M-D poll 10/21 @ +2% Obama
RCP Average - +7.6% Obama
closest pollster Rasmussen @ +4%

CO last M-D poll 10/1 @ Tie
RCP Average - +7.2% Obama
closest pollster Fox/Rasmussen @ +4%

OH last M-D poll 10/17 @ +1% McCain
RCP Average - +5.6% Obama
closest pollster Strategic Vision(R) +3% McCain

PA last M-D poll 10/30 @ +4% Obama
RCP Average - +9.5% Obama
closest pollsters Strategic Vision(R) +7% Obama & Rasmussen +7% Obama

My point is that M-D is bucking the trends and should be called on it. Without internals it is impossible to tell their assumptions and without some proof I view them as an outlier.

Although it is nice to see these obvious conservative pollsters still leaning Obama this late in the game.

My belief is that this is NBC trying to keep the ratings up with the possible comeback narative.

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thorfinn:

By election day, I would say obama wins with 3-5%. It would be simply historic for McCain to win this state given that it did not go for an Incumbent Republican in a time of War (2004).

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Ryguy:

sotonightthatimightsee

answer this question yes or no

do you understand what cherry picking means?

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Mister H.:

Insiders in PA say that Obama is going to lose the state by 5 points.


"Insiders" from the McCain campaign don't count, Boomshak.

Have any real, credible sources? Or are you just blowing smoke again?

I'll assume you have nothing until you can provide it.

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Incumbent:

Hey Mister H:

Sorry, boomshak doesn't DO "proof". He's a Republican so perception = reality.

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ketuakelas:

sources = sidekick

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Ryguy:

Mister H.... why even humor the guy? let him live in his little fantasy world for another 5 days.

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JCK:

As I noted on the other thread, Mason-Dixon did very well in its 2004 polls. I don't think they should be discarded simply because they tend to lean Republican as compared to the other pollsters. Also let's dispense with the conspiracy theories about pollster's deliberately skewing results.

They probably have a more restrictively LV screen, and perhaps they do not do call-backs (note that all three polls have EXACTLY 625 people). Both would skew them more Republican than, say, PPP.

We won't know if they're right or wrong until election day, but I do view their polls as a worst case scenario for Obama. In that scenario, he leads in PA by 4 and VA by 2. McCain STILL loses badly.

And, McCain only up in AZ by 4 (in yet another poll)? Yikes!

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Trosen:

Same as Bill O'Reilly sources I guess..

But look.. here's what the trolls don't want to address in the reality of this poll. If you want to take this one and no other as the holy grail for PA.. this same poll a month ago had Obama only up by 2.. that means Obama has DOUBLED his lead, according to NBC/MD. If that's evidence that PA is starting to go McCain's way.. ehhh.. sorry, it's not. So trolls, if you want to hitch your wagon to this one, it's decidedly heading in the WRONG direction for McCain. Ouch + Fail = you lose..

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zotz:

Lou-NH-

PA poll
Mason-Dixon 9-16/9-18 46-44 Obama +2

So according to this pollster Obama's lead has doubled since last month.

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Mister H.:

Mister H.... why even humor the guy? let him live in his little fantasy world for another 5 days.


I just think Boomshak needs to step up his trolling efforts a little bit.

He shouldn't be so obvious. Surely it can't be that difficult for him to go to some right-wing conservative site and find something that he can hang his hat on....

Doing it this way is just lazy.

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Lou-NH:

@ zotz

Point taken. My point is that M-D results are consistent with Ras & Strategic Vision(R) and should be weighted accordingly.

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harschwarz:

MD is using the old 2004 likely voter model, and has no expansion voter models. Still these are outlier polls if I've ever seen one, and must be taken with a large grain of salt. The one thing in PA that is really suspicious is the 10% undecided. Polls don't suddenly increase in undecideds unless there is some sort of major event that would be a negative for Obama. I just don't see it.

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billwy:

@RS
I'm pulling for McCain just because I like a close race, I can't stand the man.
But to say I should vote Obama? Are you kidding me? Last time I checked he voted to bail out wall st. too. He also is quite opposed to gay marriage-frankly, as weird as it sounds, Palin has come off as the person sounding most tolerant of sexual diversity.
And as tired of Joe the Plumber as I am, a libertarian would never vote for someone who wants to "spread the wealth around". No, I wish the best to future president Obama, but he'll be as bad as McCain.

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mr2dco:

the nbc/mason-dixon poll in PA is amusing, and a total outlier. it's the only poll in two weeks that shows obama with less than 50% of the vote. mccain will win pennsylvania when hell freezes over. dems hold a huge registration advantage here that he simply cannot overcome.

obama will pound mccain in philly and its suburbs, and win in both pittsburgh & scranton wilkes-barre. there simply aren't enough votes in pennsyltucky to offset that.

frankly, i think it's terrific mccain & palin are spending so much time in a blue state like PA, because it ensures he'll lose elsewhere as well.

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couseydee:

Obama endorsement: Colin Powell

McCain endorsement: Joe the back tax owing, unlicensed plumber.

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TeaLeaf96:

Interesting that MD has the same number for McCain (43%) as both Marist and CNN/Time. That number is also 3% lower than what he pulled for Rasmussen. The only difference is Obama's margin. The other polls have him consistently in +50% territory. How does MD's methodology lead to that many more undecideds?

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Ryguy:

hey harschwarz, you sound like a pretty smart guy, you should think about running for city council of a small town or something...

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imsomdude:

@ noMcSame

No! I do not think Obama has a problem here. I live north of Philly. All of my friends are dems 1/2 of them liked Hillary in the spring and everyone of em are for obama now. Sarah palin has No attraction to dems whatsoever. Pa has been trending democratic for some time now. Bush had much better support here in Montgomery county 4yrs ago. Obama will carry the state quite handily.

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Obama008:

PA will be somewhat close but Obama will carrie it, he wont ein by 10+ points I would bet obama wins by 4 or 5 points in PA.

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Obama008:

win*

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Does anyone really believe that there's 10% undecided in PA, 8% undecided in AZ, and 12%! in MN?

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imsomdude:

in all honesty, this will probably the last general election in which Pa will be considered a swing state.

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Jordan - San Marcos TX:

Murtha needs to be exiled to a remote island until Nov 5 along with Jessie Jackson.

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RS:

@billwy:
I am with you on gay marriage - I wish Obama would support it.

I am referring to McCain's economic "plan" to use $300 billion to buy mortgages at face value - that's a colossal waste of taxpayer $$.

And as for "spreading the wealth around" - unless one supports a flat tax, everybody is in favor of spreading the wealth around. If anything, the current system spreads the wealth *upwards*. Don't listen to me, listen to Warren Buffett - "[I] pay a lower part of our income in taxes than our receptionists do, or our cleaning ladies"
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/money/tax/article1996735.ece

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Windependent:

Just a thought on Mason Dixon. We're sitting here in Pittsburgh, thinking "huh?" Where did that number come from? But when I look at the most recent Minnesota polls, I see:

Rasmussen 10/28 - 10/28 500 LV 4.5 55 43 Obama +12

NBC/Mason-Dixon 10/27 - 10/28 625 LV 4.0 48 40 Obama +8

Minn. Pub. Radio 10/24 - 10/28 451 LV 4.6 56 37 Obama +19

Mason Dixon's Obama levels are coming in at 66% of Rasmussen, and Rasmussen (who I respect) generally comes in at about 66% of all the other state polls.

That logic seems to carry over to PA. Mason-Dixon is at 4, Rasmussen is at 7, and everyone else is around 11.

I'd stick with Rasmussen's numbers plus a point if I was a betting man.

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DTM:

I suspect MD is methodologically off, but the bottomline is that not a single public poll taken over the summer or fall has shown McCain winning in Pennsylvania, this poll included.

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Mister H.:

Just a quick heads-up:

According to Gallup, all of their research is showing that only about 4% of registered voters are truly undecided.

So even if you factor in a few points for MOE, this 10% figure from Mason-Dixon looks really, really silly.

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Dewey1858:

In this poll, undecided means, "I'm voting for Obama, but I haven't decided whether I'm voting before or after work."

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Washingtonian1:

Morning call (PA) tracking poll is out: Obama up 13 (+2 over yesterday)

http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_10_29.pdf

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SFMEDIC:

Two polls you can throw out are: Fox and Mason Dixon. Fox is owned by a conservative republican. Which is common knowlegde. Mason Dixon has showed a continuos effort to make it seem that this election is somehow close. Of the 26 million plus people that voted absentee so far and the number is growing. 59% showed voting for Obama and 40% McCain. That is 15,340,000 to 10,400,000. 5 million is already a considerable lead. Right now Obama has a 7.5% lead of all the National Polls combined. That is up almost 1% since yesterday and over 2% since Friday. Take out Mason Dixon and Fox and it is double digits. I trust the Gallup. The head of Gallup was interviewed on sunday and stated a 9% lead was valid for Obama.

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