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NC: 46% Burr, 36% Marshall (SurveyUSA 7/8-11)

Topics: North Carolina , poll

SurveyUSA
7/8-11/10; 560 likely voters, 4.2% margin of error
858 registered voters, 3.4% margin of error
Mode: Automated phone
(SurveyUSA release)

North Carolina

2010 Senate
46% Burr (R), 36% Marshall (D), 6% Beitler (L) (chart)

Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 36 / 45 (chart)
Bev Perdue: 23 / 40 (chart)
Kay Hagan: 22 / 28 (chart)
Richard Burr: 28 / 27 (chart)
Elaine Marshall: 25 / 12

 

Comments
Farleftandproud:

I don't trust Survey USA After what they did yesterday with Boxer, but Burr's favorables are low, which makes me think Marshall needs more time to get known, and perhaps that 6 percent libertarian, think that means liberal, not conservative.

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Stillow:

Again, the libs prove my point. Here's farleft slamming a pollster because he does not liekt he results..........so its not just limited to Rass on this site, liberals do it with all pollsters.

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Farleftandproud:

Well if it is this bad for the Democrats by mid October, I won't even be looking at these polls. I'll go to Canada for a few days to get away.

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Gopherguy:

Please don't generalize Stillow. SurveyUSA is extremely reliable. This poll is probably accurate.

You are right that some people on here question polls when they look at the results, but many don't.

If lefties don't believe the House is in danger and that a good amount of senate seats are going to be lost, then they're not living in reality. The Democrats are going to lose significantly, but we don't know how significantly. So please you guys, you do me and other Democrats on here a disservice when you question every single poll that shows a Democrat losing. I'm fine with questioning the size of some of Rasmussen's results, but all the other polls cannot lean heavily right. The writing is on the wall, all that can be done is limit the losses.

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Paleo:

This is a race I've never expected the Dems to win. But the fact that Burr is only at 46% means that the race remains competitive.

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Farleftandproud:

If African americans turnout and vote early, and younger voters are hounded by enough callers to vote on campus, this election will at least be very close.

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champt10:

When a poll gives Obama a -2 favoribility rating in California, it deserves to be questioned

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Stillow:

Gopherguy - Yes I was genralizing,but its beocming a habit of seeing lefties get on here each day and slam pollsters when they don't like the result. Not all do it that is correct. So yes I am generalziing, but with good cause.

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tjampel:

I think this pretty much sums it up. 15% per Ras, 5% per PPP, 10% here. Kind of splits the difference. I think Burr's definitely up...by high single digits, I'd guess.

Favorables are quite a bit more favorable for Marshall:

Richard Burr: 28 / 27
Elaine Marshall: 25 / 12

Burr hasn't managed to even get known by around 40% of his own constituents. Those that know him are split.

Elaine Marshall is liked 2/1 by those who know her thus far, but, as you can see, few know who she is.

Marshall has a lot of room to increase her favorables and win votes if she is able to present herself effectively (if she has the money, that is). Burr doesn't inspire a lot of love and is said to be a lackluster campaigner. He may be able to outspend Marshall, however, and doesn't have to work nearly as hard as her to stay in the race. He can turn in a lackluster performance and she will have to be flawless and a little lucky, perhaps.

If Marshall has some real star qualities she can run against the big headwind all Dems face (especially in purple states) and come close. I expect Burr to tie Marshall to Obama, and run against Dems in Washington. Marshall isn't of Washington so she may be able to deflect this tactic. I expect Marshall to portray Burr as a rubber stamp Republican who's done nothing for the state to speak of and hasn't demonstrated any vision, eloquence, or leadership qualities. I think she will further try to use fear of extremist Repubs, generally, and implications for Medicare, Social Security, etc....in other words...fear them even more than us, even if you think we haven't delivered.

If the race ever becomes one about character and personality Marshall has a chance. If the race energizes the Dem base to any great extent Marshall also has a chance. Burr will get the usual Repubs and Center-right Dems but I don't think of him as a rallying point for his voters, due to his lack of charisma; kind of the opposite of DeMint in that regard.

Since no one thought this race would be very competitive, initially, I'm encouraged by these numbers from a firm that's polling NC for the first time since 2008, I think.

I'll be looking to see if Marshall and DSCC can push Burr's negatives up more. If they can get them up 5 or 6 more points this race can still be competitive. Burr would win easily if the election were held today. Fortunately for Marshall it won't be. I WOULD put resources into this race if I were DNC because Burr has to be the least respected Repub incumbent up for re-election and Marshall is popular

Lastly, as farleft correctly alludes to NC has a huge Dem registration advantage, which can be leveraged by Marshall if younger and minority voters can be coaxed to the polls. That will be a huge problem but...we'll see.

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real_american:

The tea party approval difference is within the margin of error of Obama's approval.

The disapproval of Obama is 20 points higher than the tea party.

Maybe he should stop trashing the tea party and tell the NAACP to stop making their racism claims.

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Gopherguy:

Stillow,

You do. I just don't like to be bunched in with them. :)

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Xenobion:

I'm glad the spokesperson of liberalism, Farleft, is so well respected by you Stillow that you find him to be the overall sentiment of all liberals. You're just reading all our minds... /facepalm

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obamalover:

The more interesting thing is only 37% (favs + unfavs) of individuals have an opinion of Elaine Marshal

Despite the fact she has held statewide office, she is still relatively unknown among voters.

Given that fact, it is not good for Burr that he can't break 50% against an unknown.

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Stillow:

X - Seriously, its time to go watch some old parker lewis shows or soemthing. Stop digging this hole. You are a liberal, whining about it doesn't change that fact. When you take the liberal position 99.9 percent of the time and cannot point to a thread where you do not take that position, then your a liberal. If it walks like a duck and quakcs like a duck, then its usually a duck.

At least the other libs here are proud to admit it while you hide in shame.

Oh...and as a side show its funny for everyone to watch you squirm about being called a liberal......yet you have no problem labeling people "righties" or conservatives.....whats good for the goose is good for the gander.

Get oover yourself. You have done yourself a great disservice in all threads today.

OL - That is right, its never good when the incumbant cannot get to 50. Burr is i nthe same boat as Boxer, Reid and several others....he is vulnerable.

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